Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Importació d'obres artístiques dels Països Baixos del Sud a Catalunya durant els segles XV i primera meitat del XVI

Durant els segles XV i primera meitat del XVI, tota mena de productes de luxe eren exportats des dels Països Baixos del sud a tota Europa, moda fomentada pels ducs de Borgonya, que governaven el territori. Malgrat el major número d’estudis sobre les relacions entre la Corona de Castella i Flandes a finals de l’Edat Mitjana, i les més nombroses peces flamenques conservades en aquesta regió veïna, també la Corona d’Aragó mantenia intenses relacions comercials amb els Països Baixos del sud, essent la colònia de mercaders catalans de les primeres en establir-se a Bruges, principal port d’exportació a l’època. És nombrosa la documentació referida a naus catalanes viatjant cap al nord, així com als privilegis de què gaudia aquesta colònia de mercaders. Un bon grapat de peces d’aquesta procedència es conserven a museus i institucions locals. Malgrat que de moltes no se’n coneix el moment d’arribada, d’altres es troben ben documentades o se’n pot deduïr la seva presència a Catalunya des de finals de l’Edat Mitjana, conformant un farcit catàleg. D’altra banda, la documentació d’arxiu ens proporciona valuoses notícies sobre la gran quantitat de peces flamenques avui desaparegudes però que haurien existit a l’època, evidenciant que el que avui ens resta no és més que una molt petita porció del que hauria estat a finals de l’Edat Mitjana, i ens permet acostar-nos a una visió de la societat i els seus gustos més propera a la realitat de l’època, posant de manifest que la moda flamenca arrelaria intensament a Catalunya.

Causa del mal olor

Dictamen

Causa de la rotura y/o despegue del estampado

Dictamen

Causa de las roturas del recubrimiento en una de las costuras de la prenda cuando se somete a tensiones mínimas

Dictamen

Progression of auditory discrimination based on neural decoding predicts awakening from coma.

Auditory evoked potentials are informative of intact cortical functions of comatose patients. The integrity of auditory functions evaluated using mismatch negativity paradigms has been associated with their chances of survival. However, because auditory discrimination is assessed at various delays after coma onset, it is still unclear whether this impairment depends on the time of the recording. We hypothesized that impairment in auditory discrimination capabilities is indicative of coma progression, rather than of the comatose state itself and that rudimentary auditory discrimination remains intact during acute stages of coma. We studied 30 post-anoxic comatose patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest and five healthy, age-matched controls. Using a mismatch negativity paradigm, we performed two electroencephalography recordings with a standard 19-channel clinical montage: the first within 24 h after coma onset and under mild therapeutic hypothermia, and the second after 1 day and under normothermic conditions. We analysed electroencephalography responses based on a multivariate decoding algorithm that automatically quantifies neural discrimination at the single patient level. Results showed high average decoding accuracy in discriminating sounds both for control subjects and comatose patients. Importantly, accurate decoding was largely independent of patients' chance of survival. However, the progression of auditory discrimination between the first and second recordings was informative of a patient's chance of survival. A deterioration of auditory discrimination was observed in all non-survivors (equivalent to 100% positive predictive value for survivors). We show, for the first time, evidence of intact auditory processing even in comatose patients who do not survive and that progression of sound discrimination over time is informative of a patient's chance of survival. Tracking auditory discrimination in comatose patients could provide new insight to the chance of awakening in a quantitative and automatic fashion during early stages of coma.

The use of liver biopsy evaluation in discrimination of idiopathic autoimmune hepatitis versus drug-induced liver injury.

Distinguishing drug-induced liver injury (DILI) from idiopathic autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) can be challenging. We performed a standardized histologic evaluation to explore potential hallmarks to differentiate AIH versus DILI. Biopsies from patients with clinically well-characterized DILI [n = 35, including 19 hepatocellular injury (HC) and 16 cholestatic/mixed injury (CS)] and AIH (n = 28) were evaluated for Ishak scores, prominent inflammatory cell types in portal and intra-acinar areas, the presence or absence of emperipolesis, rosette formation, and cholestasis in a blinded fashion by four experienced hepatopathologists. Histologic diagnosis was concordant with clinical diagnosis in 65% of cases; but agreement on final diagnosis among the four pathologists was complete in only 46% of cases. Interface hepatitis, focal necrosis, and portal inflammation were present in all evaluated cases, but were more severe in AIH (P < 0.05) than DILI (HC). Portal and intra-acinar plasma cells, rosette formation, and emperiopolesis were features that favored AIH (P < 0.02). A model combining portal inflammation, portal plasma cells, intra-acinar lymphocytes and eosinophils, rosette formation, and canalicular cholestasis yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.90 in predicting DILI (HC) versus AIH. All Ishak inflammation scores were more severe in AIH than DILI (CS) (P ≤ 0.05). The four AIH-favoring features listed above were consistently more prevalent in AIH, whereas portal neutrophils and intracellular (hepatocellular) cholestasis were more prevalent in DILI (CS) (P < 0.02). The combination of portal inflammation, fibrosis, portal neutrophils and plasma cells, and intracellular (hepatocellular) cholestasis yielded an AUC of 0.91 in predicting DILI (CS) versus AIH. Conclusion: Although an overlap of histologic findings exists for AIH and DILI, sufficient differences exist so that pathologists can use the pattern of injury to suggest the correct diagnosis.

Oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 strains found in Brazil are endowed with permissive mutations, which compensate the loss of fitness imposed by antiviral resistance

The 2009 pandemic influenza A virus outbreak led to the systematic use of the neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor oseltamivir (OST). Consequently, OST-resistant strains, carrying the mutation H275Y, emerged in the years after the pandemics, with a prevalence of 1-2%. Currently, OST-resistant strains have been found in community settings, in untreated individuals. To spread in community settings, H275Y mutants must contain additional mutations, collectively called permissive mutations. We display the permissive mutations in NA of OST-resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 virus found in Brazilian community settings. The NAs from 2013 are phylogenetically distinct from those of 2012, indicating a tendency of positive selection of NAs with better fitness. Some previously predicted permissive mutations, such as V241I and N369K, found in different countries, were also detected in Brazil. Importantly, the change D344N, also predicted to compensate loss of fitness imposed by H275Y mutation, was found in Brazil, but not in other countries in 2013. Our results reinforce the notion that OST-resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 strains with compensatory mutations may arise in an independent fashion, with samples being identified in different states of Brazil and in different countries. Systematic circulation of these viral strains may jeopardise the use of the first line of anti-influenza drugs in the future.

Influence on screening performance of second reading strategies in two lowvolume programs

BACKGROUND: The European Guidelines specify a minimum of 5,000 screening cases to be read yearly by radiologists carrying out second reading in non-centralized programs. This professional requirement is difficult to reach and/or to implement in regional programs covering a sparse population with a high number of participating radiology units, so that alternative blind double reading strategies must be devised. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect on breast cancer screening performances of two second reading strategies used in non-centralized, low-volume programs. METHODS: Reading performances in two Swiss regional breast cancer screening programs (cantons of Wallis and Vaud), covering female populations, aged 50-69, of about 31'000 and 72'000 inhabitants were computed and compared. Both programs had similar screening regimens and organizations, but differed with respect to second reading. One setting applied a selective strategy whereby only experienced radiologists performed second reading; the other elicited not to restrict second readers on the basis of their individual screening activity. Analysis included some 140,000 mammograms performed between 1999 and 2005. RESULTS: Overall, screening performances improved with increasing total volume of reading, albeit not in a linear fashion. Regardless of setting, radiologists attained a higher level of screening accuracy when performing second rather than first readings, and incident rather than prevalent screening cases. The effect of a selective, small group of second readers appeared to impact favorably on the false-positive rate and other indicators of screening quality. As the learning curve depends on the number of mammograms read, these distinct strategies may bear different outcome in the long run. Implications and practical issues for low-volume programs are discussed.