Events: Temporal and Eternal (in preparation)

This monograph develops a theory of events which provides the foundation for a plausible and coherent account of God’s relation to time, and which has independent appeal (independent, that is, of theological considerations). The book is divided into three parts. The first part involves an investigation of those fundamental aspects of time which have important implications for the nature of events, such as whether time is substantival or relational, and whether time is continuous, dense, or discrete. This part also includes a chapter on how these issues relate to different interpretations of the special theory of relativity. The second part involves a defense of the fundamentality of events, and the development of a theory of events in time. The third part considers ways in which we might plausibly conceive of events as eternal entities. This involves an investigation of different ways of characterizing divine eternity, and then an analysis of the possible relations these ways bear to the antecedently developed theory of temporal events. The thought here is that there are certain characteristics of temporal events which can be assimilated to eternity, and that by evaluating the extent to which different theories of divine eternity allow for this assimilation, we will be able to determine which of those theories is most plausible, and therefore which conception of God’s relation to time is most plausible. The basis of this evaluation will be the theory’s ability to coherently account for God’s knowledge of, and interaction with, the created temporal world. One specific issue here is how to account for God’s knowledge of the future free actions of humans (an issue that I address in 'Eternity, Knowledge, and Freedom'), but there are many other difficulties associated with God’s relation to time, such as God’s creation of contingent time, God’s knowledge of what is happening now, God’s dialogue with humans, and God’s causally interacting with the temporal world in general. A successful theory of eternal events, and, in particular, divine events, will provide a framework for dealing with these difficulties.

I have not yet sough a publisher for this work, but intend to do so in 2013, with a target publication date of 2014.

Assessing the extent to which temporal changes in waterbird community composition are driven by either local, regional or global factors.

1. Lough Neagh and Lough Beg Special Protection Area (SPA, hereafter Lough Neagh) is an important non-estuarine site in Britain and Ireland for overwintering wildfowl. Multivariate analysis of the winter counts showed a state-shift in the waterbird community following winter 2000/2001, mostly due to rapid declines in abundance (46–57% declines in the mean mid-winter January counts between 1993–2000 and 2002–2009) of members of the diving duck guild (pochard Aythya ferina, tufted duck Aythya fuligula and goldeneye Bucephala clangula) and coot (Fulica atra), a submerged macrophyte feeder.
2. Only pochard showed correlations between declines at Lough Neagh and those of overall species flyway population indices to suggest that global changes could contribute to declines at the site. However, indices from the Republic of Ireland showed no overall decline in the rest of Ireland. Tufted duck indices at the site were inversely related to indices in Great Britain. Lough Neagh goldeneye indices were positively correlated with indices in the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain, suggesting that short-stopping could contribute to declines at the site. Coot declines at Lough Neagh did not correlate with trends elsewhere, suggesting local factors involved in the decline.
3. These analyses indicate that although there are potentially different explanations for the dramatic declines in these four waterbird species at this site, the simultaneous nature of the declines across two feeding guilds strongly
suggest that local factors (such as loss of submerged macrophytes and benthic invertebrates) were involved. An assessment of the food supply, local disturbance and other factors at Lough Neagh is required to find an explanation for the observed adverse trends in wintering numbers of the affected species.
4. This study highlights the potential of waterbird community structure to reflect the status of aquatic systems, but confirms the need to establish site-specific factors responsible for the observed changes in abundance of key waterbird species at a site.

Spatial and temporal ecology of Scots pine ectomycorrhizas

Spatial analysis was used to explore the distribution of individual species in an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal community to address: whether mycorrhizas of individual ECM fungal species were patchily distributed, and at what scale; and what the causes of this patchiness might be. Ectomycorrhizas were extracted from spatially explicit samples of the surface organic horizons of a pine plantation. The number of mycorrhizas of each ECM fungal species was recorded using morphotyping combined with internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequencing. Semivariograms, kriging and cluster analyses were used to determine both the extent and scale of spatial autocorrelation in species abundances, potential interactions between species, and change over time. The mycorrhizas of some, but not all, ECM fungal species were patchily distributed and the size of patches differed between species. The relative abundance of individual ECM fungal species and the position of patches of ectomycorrhizas changed between years. Spatial and temporal analysis revealed a dynamic ECM fungal community with many interspecific interactions taking place, despite the homogeneity of the host community. The spatial pattern of mycorrhizas was influenced by the underlying distribution of fine roots, but local root density was in turn influenced by the presence of specific fungal species.

Using temporal analysis of products and flux response technology to determine diffusion coefficients in catalytic monoliths

The importance of accurately measuring gas diffusivity in porous materials has led to a number of methods being developed. In this study the Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) reactor and Flux Response Technology (FRT) have been used to examine the diffusivity in the washcoat supported on cordierite monoliths. Herein, the molecular diffusion of propane within four monoliths with differently prepared alumina/CeZrOx washcoats was investigated as a function of temperature. Moment-based analysis of the observed TAP responses led to the calculation of the apparent intermediate gas constant, Kp, that characterises adsorption into the mesoporous network and apparent time delay, tapp, that characterises residence time in the mesoporous network. Additionally, FRT has been successfully adapted as an extensive in situ perturbation technique in measuring intraphase diffusion coefficients in the washcoats of the same four monolith samples. The diffusion coefficients obtained by moment-based analysis of TAP responses are larger than the coefficients determined by zero length column (ZLC) analysis of flux response profiles with measured values of the same monolith samples between 20 and 100 °C ranging from 2–5×10^-9 m² s^-1 to 4–8×10^-10 m² s^-1, respectively. The TAP and FRT data, therefore, provide a range of the lower and upper limits of diffusivity, respectively. The reported activation energies and diffusivities clearly correlate with the difference in the washcoat structure of different monolith samples.

How position, velocity, and temporal information combine in the prospective control of catching:data and model

The cerebral cortex contains circuitry for continuously computing properties of the environment and one's body, as well as relations among those properties. The success of complex perceptuomotor performances requires integrated, simultaneous use of such relational information. Ball catching is a good example as it involves reaching and grasping of visually pursued objects that move relative to the catcher. Although integrated neural control of catching has received sparse attention in the neuroscience literature, behavioral observations have led to the identification of control principles that may be embodied in the involved neural circuits. Here, we report a catching experiment that refines those principles via a novel manipulation. Visual field motion was used to perturb velocity information about balls traveling on various trajectories relative to a seated catcher, with various initial hand positions. The experiment produced evidence for a continuous, prospective catching strategy, in which hand movements are planned based on gaze-centered ball velocity and ball position information. Such a strategy was implemented in a new neural model, which suggests how position, velocity, and temporal information streams combine to shape catching movements. The model accurately reproduces the main and interaction effects found in the behavioral experiment and provides an interpretation of recently observed target motion-related activity in the motor cortex during interceptive reaching by monkeys. It functionally interprets a broad range of neurobiological and behavioral data, and thus contributes to a unified theory of the neural control of reaching to stationary and moving targets.

Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets

This paper studies the impact of belief elicitation on informational efficiency and individual behavior in experimental parimutuel betting markets. In one treatment, groups of eight participants, who possess a private signal about the eventual outcome, play a sequential betting game. The second treatment is identical, except that bettors are observed by eight other participants who submit incentivized beliefs about the winning probabilities of each outcome. In the third treatment, the same individuals make bets and assess the winning probabilities of the outcomes. Market probabilities more accurately reflect objective probabilities in the third than in the other two treatments. Submitting beliefs reduces the favorite-longshot bias and making bets improves the accuracy of elicited beliefs. A level-k framework provides some insights about why belief elicitation improves the capacity of betting markets to aggregate information. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural brain abnormalities in male schizophrenics reflect fronto-temporal dissociation

Background. Many studies have separately reported abnormalities of frontal and temporal lobe structures in schizophrenia, but little is known of structural fronto-temporal associations in this condition. We investigated whether male patients with chronic schizophrenia would show abnormal patterns of correlation between regional brain volumes.

Methods. Structural magnetic resonance images of the brain in 42 patients were compared with 43 matched unaffected controls. We explored the pattern of association between regional brain volumes by correlational analyses, and non-parametrically tested for significance of between-group differences by randomization.

Results. The schizophrenics demonstrated significant volume deficits in several brain regions (left temporal lobe and hippocampus, right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex), and significant volume increases in the ventricular system (third ventricle and left temporal horn of the lateral ventricle). Controls demonstrated large positive correlations (r > 0.4) between prefrontal and temporal lobe regions. By contrast, inter-regional correlations significantly reduced in schizophrenics included those between prefrontal, anterior cingulate and temporal regions, and between posterior cingulate and hippocampus (P < 0.05). The most salient abnormality in patients was a dissociation between prefrontal and superior temporal gyrus volumes (P < 0.01).

Conclusions. These results support the existence of a relative 'fronto-temporal dissociation' in schizophrenia which we suggest may be due to lack of mutually trophic influences during frontal and temporal lobe development.

Problem-solving and spatial working memory in patients with schizophrenia and with focal frontal and temporal lobe lesions

Problem-solving ability was investigated in 25 DSM-IIIR schizophrenic (SC) patients using the Tower of Hanoi (TOH) task. Their performance was compared to that of: (1) 22 patients with neurosurgical unilateral prefrontal lesions, 11 left (LF) and 10 right hemisphere (RF); (2) 38 patients with unilateral temporal lobectomies, 19 left (LT) and 19 right (RT); and (3) 44 matched control subjects. Like the RT and LF group, the schizophrenics were significantly impaired on the TOH. The deficit shown by the schizophrenic group was equivalent whether or not the problems to be solved included goal-subgoal conflicts, unlike the LF group who were impaired specifically on these problems. The nature of the SC deficit was also distinct from that of the RT group, in that the problem-solving deficit remained after controlling for the effects of spatial memory performance. This study indicates, therefore, that neither focal frontal nor temporal lobe damage sustained in adult life is a sufficient explanation for the problem-solving deficits found in patients with schizophrenia. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal guidance of musicians’ performance movement is an acquired skill

The ancillary (non-sounding) body movements made by expert musicians during performance have been shown to indicate expressive, emotional, and structural features of the music to observers, even if the sound of the performance is absent. If such ancillary body movements are a component of skilled musical performance, then it should follow that acquiring the temporal control of such movements is a feature of musical skill acquisition. This proposition is tested using measures derived from a theory of temporal guidance of movement, “General Tau Theory” (Lee in Ecol Psychol 10:221–250, 1998; Lee et al. in Exp Brain Res 139:151–159, 2001), to compare movements made during performances of intermediate-level clarinetists before and after learning a new piece of music. Results indicate that the temporal control of ancillary body movements made by participants was stronger in performances after the music had been learned and was closer to the measures of temporal control found for an expert musician’s movements. These findings provide evidence that the temporal control of musicians’ ancillary body movements develops with musical learning. These results have implications for other skillful behaviors and nonverbal communication.

A Data Model for Content Modelling of Temporal Media

This paper describes a data model for content representation of temporal media in an IP based sensor network. The model is formed by introducing the idea of semantic-role from linguistics into the underlying concepts of formal event representation with the aim of developing a common event model. The architecture of a prototype system for a multi camera surveillance system, based on the proposed model is described. The important aspects of the proposed model are its expressiveness, its ability to model content of temporal media, and its suitability for use with a natural language interface. It also provides a platform for temporal information fusion, as well as organizing sensor annotations by help of ontologies.

Merging Knowledge Bases in Possibilistic Logic by Lexicographic Aggregation

Belief merging is an important but difficult problem in Artificial Intelligence, especially when sources of information are pervaded with uncertainty. Many merging operators have been proposed to deal with this problem in possibilistic logic, a weighted logic which is powerful for handling inconsistency and deal-ing with uncertainty. They often result in a possibilistic knowledge base which is a set of weighted formulas. Although possibilistic logic is inconsistency tolerant, it suffers from the well-known "drowning effect". Therefore, we may still want to obtain a consistent possibilistic knowledge base as the result of merging. In such a case, we argue that it is not always necessary to keep weighted information after merging. In this paper, we define a merging operator that maps a set of possibilistic knowledge bases and a formula representing the integrity constraints to a classical knowledge base by using lexicographic ordering. We show that it satisfies nine postulates that generalize basic postulates for propositional merging given in [11]. These postulates capture the principle of minimal change in some sense. We then provide an algorithm for generating the resulting knowledge base of our merging operator. Finally, we discuss the compatibility of our merging operator with propositional merging and establish the advantage of our merging operator over existing semantic merging operators in the propositional case.