Numerical investigation of effects of addition of ethanol to gasoline on Laminar Flame Speed (LFS), autoignition, and wall quenching

Since the advent of automobiles, alcohol has been considered a possible engine fuel1,2. With the recent increased concern about the high price of crude oil due to fluctuating supply and demand and environmental issues, interest in alcohol based fuels has increased2,3. However, using pure alcohols or blends with conventional fuels in high percentages requires changes to the engine and fuel system design2. This leads to the need for a simple and accurate conventional fuels-alcohol blends combustion models that can be used in developing parametric burn rate and knock combustion models for designing more efficient Spark Ignited (SI) engines. To contribute to this understanding, numerical simulations were performed to obtain detailed characteristics of Gasoline-Ethanol blends with respect to Laminar Flame Speed (LFS), autoignition and Flame-Wall interactions. The one-dimensional premixed flame code CHEMKIN® was applied to simulate the burning velocity and autoignition characteristics using the freely propagating model and closed homogeneous reactor model respectively. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to obtain detailed flow, temperature, and species fields for Flame-wall interactions. A semi-detailed validated chemical kinetic model for a gasoline surrogate fuel developed by Andrae and Head4 was used for the study of LFS and Autoignition. For the quenching study, a skeletal chemical kinetic mechanism of gasoline surrogate, having 50 species and 174 reactions was used. The surrogate fuel was defined as a mixture of pure n-heptane, isooctane, and toluene. For LFS study, the ethanol volume fraction was varied from 0 to 85%, initial pressure from 4 to 8 bar, initial temperature from 300 to 900K, and dilution from 0 to 32%. Whereas for Autoignition study, the ethanol volume fraction was varied between 0 to 85%, initial pressure was varied between 20 to 60 bar, initial temperature was varied between 800 to 1200K, and the dilution was varied between 0 to 32% at equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 to represent the in-cylinder conditions of a SI engine. For quenching study three Ethanol blends, namely E0, E25 and E85 are described in detail at an initial pressure of 8 atm and 17 atm. Initial wall temperature was taken to be 400 K. Quenching thicknesses and heat fluxes to the wall were computed. The laminar flame speed was found to increase with ethanol concentration and temperature but decrease with pressure and dilution. The autoignition time was found to increase with ethanol concentration at lower temperatures but was found to decrease marginally at higher temperatures. The autoignition time was also found to decrease with pressure and equivalence ratio but increase with dilution. The average quenching thickness was found to decrease with an increase in Ethanol concentration in the blend. Heat flux to the wall increased with increase in ethanol percentage in the blend and at higher initial pressures. Whereas the wall heat flux decreased with an increase in dilution. Unburned Hydrocarbon (UHC) and CO % was also found to decrease with ethanol concentration in the blend.

Development of room temperature operating single electron transistor using FIB etching and deposition technology

The single-electron transistor (SET) is one of the best candidates for future nano electronic circuits because of its ultralow power consumption, small size and unique functionality. SET devices operate on the principle of Coulomb blockade, which is more prominent at dimensions of a few nano meters. Typically, the SET device consists of two capacitively coupled ultra-small tunnel junctions with a nano island between them. In order to observe the Coulomb blockade effects in a SET device the charging energy of the device has to be greater that the thermal energy. This condition limits the operation of most of the existing SET devices to cryogenic temperatures. Room temperature operation of SET devices requires sub-10nm nano-islands due to the inverse dependence of charging energy on the radius of the conducting nano-island. Fabrication of sub-10nm structures using lithography processes is still a technological challenge. In the present investigation, Focused Ion Beam based etch and deposition technology is used to fabricate single electron transistors devices operating at room temperature. The SET device incorporates an array of tungsten nano-islands with an average diameter of 8nm. The fabricated devices are characterized at room temperature and clear Coulomb blockade and Coulomb oscillations are observed. An improvement in the resolution limitation of the FIB etching process is demonstrated by optimizing the thickness of the active layer. SET devices with structural and topological variation are developed to explore their impact on the behavior of the device. The threshold voltage of the device was minimized to ~500mV by minimizing the source-drain gap of the device to 17nm. Vertical source and drain terminals are fabricated to realize single-dot based SET device. A unique process flow is developed to fabricate Si dot based SET devices for better gate controllability in the device characteristic. The device vi parameters of the fabricated devices are extracted by using a conductance model. Finally, characteristic of these devices are validated with the simulated data from theoretical modeling.

Long-range correlations in rectal temperature fluctuations of healthy infants during maturation

BACKGROUND: Control of breathing, heart rate, and body temperature are interdependent in infants, where instabilities in thermoregulation can contribute to apneas or even life-threatening events. Identifying abnormalities in thermoregulation is particularly important in the first 6 months of life, where autonomic regulation undergoes critical development. Fluctuations in body temperature have been shown to be sensitive to maturational stage as well as system failure in critically ill patients. We thus aimed to investigate the existence of fractal-like long-range correlations, indicative of temperature control, in night time rectal temperature (T(rec)) patterns in maturing infants. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We measured T(rec) fluctuations in infants every 4 weeks from 4 to 20 weeks of age and before and after immunization. Long-range correlations in the temperature series were quantified by the correlation exponent, alpha using detrended fluctuation analysis. The effects of maturation, room temperature, and immunization on the strength of correlation were investigated. We found that T(rec) fluctuations exhibit fractal long-range correlations with a mean (SD) alpha of 1.51 (0.11), indicating that T(rec) is regulated in a highly correlated and hence deterministic manner. A significant increase in alpha with age from 1.42 (0.07) at 4 weeks to 1.58 (0.04) at 20 weeks reflects a change in long-range correlation behavior with maturation towards a smoother and more deterministic temperature regulation, potentially due to the decrease in surface area to body weight ratio in the maturing infant. alpha was not associated with mean room temperature or influenced by immunization CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the quantification of long-range correlations using alpha derived from detrended fluctuation analysis is an observer-independent tool which can distinguish developmental stages of night time T(rec) pattern in young infants, reflective of maturation of the autonomic system. Detrended fluctuation analysis may prove useful for characterizing thermoregulation in premature and other infants at risk for life-threatening events.

Effects of thermal environment on hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis hormones, oxytocin, and behavioral activity in periparturient sows

Provision of additional floor heating (33 to 34 degrees C) at birth and during the early postnatal hours is favorable for newborn piglets of domestic sows (Sus scrofa). We investigated whether this relatively high temperature influenced sow behavior and physiology around farrowing. One-half of 28 second-parity pregnant sows were randomly chosen to be exposed to floor heating 12 h after onset of nest building and until 48 h after birth of the first piglet (heat treatment), whereas the rest of the sows entered the control group (control treatment) with no floor heating. Hourly blood sampling from 8 h before and until 24 h after the birth of the first piglet was used for investigation of temporal changes in plasma concentrations of oxytocin, cortisol, and ACTH. In addition, occurrence and duration of sow postures were recorded -8 to +48 h relative to the birth of the first piglet. There was a clear temporal development in sow behavior and hormone concentrations (ACTH, cortisol, and oxytocin) across parturition (P < 0.001), independent of treatment. In general, hormone concentrations increased from the start to the end of farrowing. The observed oxytocin increase and peak late in farrowing coincided with the passive phase where sows lie laterally with an overall reduced activity. Floor heating increased the mean concentration of cortisol (P = 0.02; estimated as 29% greater than in controls) and tended to increase the mean concentration of ACTH (P = 0.08; estimated as 17% greater than in controls), but we did not find any treatment effect on mean oxytocin concentrations, the course of parturition, or the behavior of sows. Behavioral thermoregulation may, however, have lost some function for the sows because the floor was fully heated in our study. In addition, exposure to heat decreased the between-sow variation of plasma oxytocin (approximately 31% less relative to control) and ACTH (approximately 46% less relative to control). Whether this decreased variation may be indicative of acute stress or linked to other biological events is unclear. In conclusion, inescapable floor heating (around 33.5 degrees C) may be considered a stressor for sows around farrowing, giving rise to elevated plasma concentrations of cortisol, but without concurrent changes in oxytocin or behavioral activity.

Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Effects of Pasture Conditions in Spring on Seasonal Forage Productivity

Fifteen beef cow-calf producers in southern Iowa were selected based on locality, management level, historical date of grazing initiation and desire to participate in the project. In 1997 and 1998, all producers kept records of production and economic data using the Integrated Resource Management-Standardized Performance Analysis (IRM-SPA) records program. At the initiation of grazing on each farm in 1997 and 1998, Julian date, degree-days, cumulative precipitation, and soil moisture, phosphorus, and potassium concentrations were determined. Also determined were pH, temperature, and load-bearing capacity; and forage mass, sward height, morphology and dry matter concentration. Over the grazing season, forage production, measured both by cumulative mass and sward height, forage in vitro digestible dry matter concentration, and crude protein concentration were determined monthly. In the fall of 1996 the primary species in pastures on farms used in this project were cool-season grasses, which composed 76% of the live forage whereas legumes and weeds composed 8.3 and 15.3%, respectively. The average number of paddocks was 4.1, reflecting a low intensity rotational stocking system on most farms. The average dates of grazing initiation were May 5 and April 29 in 1997 and 1998, respectively, with standard deviations of 14.8 and 14.1 days. Because the average soil moisture of 23% was dry and did not differ between years, it seems that most producers delayed the initiation of grazing to avoid muddy conditions by initiating grazing at a nearly equal soil moisture. However, Julian date, degree-days, soil temperature and morphology index at grazing initiation were negatively related to seasonal forage production, measured as mass or sward height, in 1998. And forage mass and height at grazing initiation were negatively related to seasonal forage production, measured as sward height, in 1997. Moreover, the concentrations of digestible dry matter at the initiation of and during the grazing season and the concentrations of crude protein during the grazing season were lower than desired for optimal animal performance. Because the mean seasonal digestible dry matter concentration was negatively related to initial forage mass in 1997 and mean seasonal crude proteins concentrations were negatively related to the Julian date, degree-days, and morphology indeces in both years, it seems that delaying the initiation of grazing until pasture soils are not muddy, is limiting the quality as well as the quantity of pasture forage. In 1997, forage production and digestibility were positively related to the soil phosphorus concentration. Soil potassium concentration was positively related to forage digestibility in 1997 and forage production and crude protein concentration in 1998. Increasing the number of paddocks increased forage production, measured as sward height, in 1997, and forage digestible dry matter concentration in 1998. Increasing yields or the concentrations of digestible dry matter or crude protein of pasture forage reduced the costs of purchased feed per cow.

Acute effects of stochastic resonance whole body vibration

AIM: To investigate the acute effects of stochastic resonance whole body vibration (SR-WBV) training to identify possible explanations for preventive effects against musculoskeletal disorders. METHODS: Twenty-three healthy, female students participated in this quasi-experimental pilot study. Acute physiological and psychological effects of SR-WBV training were examined using electromyography of descending trapezius (TD) muscle, heart rate variability (HRV), different skin parameters (temperature, redness and blood flow) and self-report questionnaires. All subjects conducted a sham SR-WBV training at a low intensity (2 Hz with noise level 0) and a verum SR-WBV training at a higher intensity (6 Hz with noise level 4). They were tested before, during and after the training. Conclusions were drawn on the basis of analysis of variance. RESULTS: Twenty-three healthy, female students participated in this study (age = 22.4 ± 2.1 years; body mass index = 21.6 ± 2.2 kg/m2). Muscular activity of the TD and energy expenditure rose during verum SR-WBV compared to baseline and sham SR-WBV (all P < 0.05). Muscular relaxation after verum SR-WBV was higher than at baseline and after sham SR-WBV (all P < 0.05). During verum SR-WBV the levels of HRV were similar to those observed during sham SR-WBV. The same applies for most of the skin characteristics, while microcirculation of the skin of the middle back was higher during verum compared to sham SR-WBV (P < 0.001). Skin redness showed significant changes over the three measurement points only in the middle back area (P = 0.022). There was a significant rise from baseline to verum SR-WBV (0.86 ± 0.25 perfusion units; P = 0.008). The self-reported chronic pain grade indicators of pain, stiffness, well-being, and muscle relaxation showed a mixed pattern across conditions. Muscle and joint stiffness (P = 0.018) and muscular relaxation did significantly change from baseline to different conditions of SR-WBV (P < 0.001). Moreover, muscle relaxation after verum SR-WBV was higher than after sham SR-WBV (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Verum SR-WBV stimulated musculoskeletal activity in young healthy individuals while cardiovascular activation was low. Training of musculoskeletal capacity and immediate increase in musculoskeletal relaxation are potential mediators of pain reduction in preventive trials.

Tilapia sex determination: Where temperature and genetics meet

This review deals with the complex sex determining system of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, governed by the interactions between a genetic determination and the influence of temperature, shown in both domestic and wild populations. Naturally sex reversed individuals are strongly suggested in two wild populations. This can be due to the masculinising temperatures which some fry encounter during their sex differentiation period when they colonise shallow waters, and/or to the influence of minor genetic factors. Differences regarding a) thermal responsiveness of sex ratios between and within Nile tilapia populations, b) maternal and paternal effects on temperature dependent sex ratios and c) nearly identical results in offspring of repeated matings, demonstrate that thermosensitivity is under genetic control. Selection experiments to increase the thermosensitivity revealed high responses in the high and low sensitive lines. The high-line showed ~ 90% males after 2 generations of selection whereas the weakly sensitive line had 54% males. This is the first evidence that a surplus of males in temperature treated groups can be selected as a quantitative trait. Expression profiles of several genes (Cyp19a, Foxl2, Amh, Sox9a,b) from the gonad and brain were analysed to define temperature action on the sex determining/differentiating cascade in tilapia. The coexistence of GSD and TSD is discussed.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate with the fate of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene depending upon interactions among temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. Interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This study evaluates recent trends in productivity and phenology of Inner Asian forests (in Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Trends in photosynthetically active radiation fraction (FPAR) between 1982 and 2010 show a greening of about 7% of the region in spring (March, April, May), and 3% of the area ‘browning’ during summertime (June, July, August). These satellite observations of FPAR are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and possibly even greater forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover. The fate of these semi-arid ecosystems thus appears to hinge upon the magnitude and subtleties of CO2 fertilization effects, for which experimental observations in arid systems are needed to test and refine vegetation models.

Declining pine growth in Central Spain coincides with increasing diurnal temperature range since the 1970s

Growing evidence suggests environmental change to be most severe across the semi-arid subtropics, with past, present and projected drying of the Mediterranean Basin posing a key multidisciplinary challenge. Consideration of a single climatic factor, however, often fails to explain spatiotemporal growth dynamics of drought-prone ecosystems. Here, we present annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurements of 871 Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) from 18 individual plot sites in the Central Spanish Pinar Grande forest reserve. Although comprising tree ages from 6 to 175 years, this network correlates surprisingly well with the inverse May–July diurnal temperature range (r = 0.84; p < 0.00011956–2011). Ring width extremes were triggered by pressure anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the long-term growth decline coincided with Iberian-wide drying since the mid-1970s. Climate model simulations not only confirm this negative trend over the last decades but also project drought to continuously increase over the 21st century. Associated ecological effects and socio-economic consequences should be considered to improve adaptation strategies of agricultural and forest management, as well as biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service.

Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley, Switzerland

While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM-ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km2) over the period of 1983−2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b-glacio-nival to nivo-glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Effects of Joint ENSO-Antarctic Oscillation Forcing on the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Stable oxygen analyses and snow accumulation rates from snow pits sampled in the McMurdo Dry Valleys have been used to reconstruct variations in summer temperature and moisture availability over the last four decades. The temperature data show a common interannual variability, with strong regional warmings occurring especially in 1984/85, 1995/96 and 1990/91 and profound coolings during 1977/78, 1983/84, 1988/89, 1993/94, and 1996/97. Annual snow accumulation shows a larger variance between sites, but the early 1970s, 1984, 1997, and to a lesser degree 1990/91 are characterized overall by wetter conditions, while the early and late 1980s show low snow accumulation values. Comparison of the reconstructed and measured summer temperatures with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) yield statistically significant correlations, which improve when phaserelationships are considered. A distinct change in the phase relationship of the correlation is observed, with the SOI-AAO leading over the temperature records by one year before, and lagging by one year after 1988. These results suggest that over the last two decades summer temperatures are influenced by opposing El Niho Southern Oscillation and AAO forcings and support previous studies that identified a change in the Tropical-Antarctic teleconnection between the 1980s and 1990s.

Regulation of Phytoplankton Carbon to Chlorophyll Ratio By Light, Nutrients and Temperature in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean: A Basin-Scale Model

The complex effects of light, nutrients and temperature lead to a variable carbon to chlorophyll (C:Chl) ratio in phytoplankton cells. Using field data collected in the Equatorial Pacific, we derived a new dynamic model with a non-steady C:Chl ratio as a function of irradiance, nitrate, iron, and temperature. The dynamic model is implemented into a basin-scale ocean circulation-biogeochemistry model and tested in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The model reproduces well the general features of phytoplankton dynamics in this region. For instance, the simulated deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) is much deeper in the western warm pool (similar to 100 m) than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (similar to 50 m). The model also shows the ability to reproduce chlorophyll, including not only the zonal, meridional and vertical variations, but also the interannual variability. This modeling study demonstrates that combination of nitrate and iron regulates the spatial and temporal variations in the phytoplankton C:Chl ratio in the Equatorial Pacific. Sensitivity simulations suggest that nitrate is mainly responsible for the high C:Chl ratio in the western warm pool while iron is responsible for the frontal features in the C:Chl ratio between the warm pool and the upwelling region. In addition, iron plays a dominant role in regulating the spatial and temporal variations of the C:Chl ratio in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific. While temperature has a relatively small effect on the C:Chl ratio, light is primarily responsible for the vertical decrease of phytoplankton C:Chl ratio in the euphotic zone.

Biodiversity effects on nitrate concentrations in soil solution: a Bayesian model

Ecosystems are faced with high rates of species loss which has consequences for their functions and services. To assess the effects of plant species diversity on the nitrogen (N) cycle, we developed a model for monthly mean nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations in soil solution in 0-30 cm mineral soil depth using plant species and functional group richness and functional composition as drivers and assessing the effects of conversion of arable land to grassland, spatially heterogeneous soil properties, and climate. We used monthly mean NO3-N concentrations from 62 plots of a grassland plant diversity experiment from 2003 to 2006. Plant species richness (1-60) and functional group composition (1-4 functional groups: legumes, grasses, non-leguminous tall herbs, non-leguminous small herbs) were manipulated in a factorial design. Plant community composition, time since conversion from arable land to grassland, soil texture, and climate data (precipitation, soil moisture, air and soil temperature) were used to develop one general Bayesian multiple regression model for the 62 plots to allow an in-depth evaluation using the experimental design. The model simulated NO3-N concentrations with an overall Bayesian coefficient of determination of 0.48. The temporal course of NO3-N concentrations was simulated differently well for the individual plots with a maximum plot-specific Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.57. The model shows that NO3-N concentrations decrease with species richness, but this relation reverses if more than approx. 25 % of legume species are included in the mixture. Presence of legumes increases and presence of grasses decreases NO3-N concentrations compared to mixtures containing only small and tall herbs. Altogether, our model shows that there is a strong influence of plant community composition on NO3-N concentrations.