Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

A first attempt of geographically-distributed Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM): mapping human time and energy throughput in metropolitan Barcelona

This study presents a first attempt to extend the “Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM)” approach to a spatial dimension using GIS techniques in the Metropolitan area of Barcelona. We use a combination of census and commercial databases along with a detailed land cover map to create a layer of Common Geographic Units that we populate with the local values of human time spent in different activities according to MuSIASEM hierarchical typology. In this way, we mapped the hours of available human time, in regards to the working hours spent in different locations, putting in evidence the gradients in spatial density between the residential location of workers (generating the work supply) and the places where the working hours are actually taking place. We found a strong three-modal pattern of clumps of areas with different combinations of values of time spent on household activities and on paid work. We also measured and mapped spatial segregation between these two activities and put forward the conjecture that this segregation increases with higher energy throughput, as the size of the functional units must be able to cope with the flow of exosomatic energy. Finally, we discuss the effectiveness of the approach by comparing our geographic representation of exosomatic throughput to the one issued from conventional methods.

Work values, endogenous sentiments and redistribution

We examine the interactions between individual behavior, sentiments and the social contract in a model of rational voting over redistribution. Agents have moral "work values". Individuals' self-esteem and social consideration of others are endogenously determined comparing behaviors to moral standards. Attitudes toward redistribution depend on self-interest and social preferences. We characterize the politico-economic equilibria in which sentiments, labor supply and redistribution are determined simultaneously. The equilibria feature different degrees of "social cohesion" and redistribution depending on pre-tax income inequality. In clustered equilibria the poor are held partly responsible for their low income since they work less than the moral standard and hence redistribution is low. The paper proposes a novel explanation for the emergence of different sentiments and social contracts across countries. The predictions appear broadly in line with well-documented differences between the United States and Europe.

Use of isozyme patterns in the identification of Biomphalaria tenagophila (D'Orbigny, 1835) and B. occidentalis (Paraense, 1981) (Gastropoda: Planorbidae)

Two sibling species of Biomphalaria, B. tenagophila and B. occidentalis were identified using isozyme patterns obtained by horizontal gel electrophoresis. Six diagnostic enzymatic loci were identified in digestive gland homogenates. The results enable us to distinguish the species, calculate the Nei's coefficient of genetic similarity, and provide a basis for making inferences about the pattern of these two planorbid species colonization and distribution.

The Barcelona Forum: on decentralized governance and conflict prevention 6-8 july 2009

The Barcelona Forum aimed to generate both a theoretical and practical discussion on decentralized governance and its capacity to promote peace, prevent conflict, advance human security and ensure greater governmental accountability. The Forum intended to review the theoretical strength of decentralization as a political tool and discuss how it can be properly implemented. Eight case studies were selected to be covered during the two days in order to draw conclusions and offer proposals for the future implementation of decentralization. The case of Catalonia and the decentralized experience of Spain was given special attention, as an example of successful decentralization. The other cases presented achievements and challenges and prompted discussions on both the validity and universality of decentralization as a way to promote and preserve peace. Topics such as ethnic and territorial divisions, democratic accountability, financial decentralization and distribution, resource sharing, and external implementation of decentralization through peace processes were discussed.

Dried blood spots collected on filter paper: an international resource for the diagnosis and genetic characterization of human immunodeficiency virus Type-1

The collection of dried blood spots (DBS) on filter paper provides a powerful approach for the development of large-scale, population-based screening programs. DBS methods are particularly valuable in developing countries and isolated rural regions where resources are limited. Large numbers of field specimens can be economically collected and shipped to centralized reference laboratories for genetic and (or) serological analysis. Alternatively, the dried blood can be stored and used as an archival resource to rapidly establish the frequency and distribution of newly recognized mutations, confirm patient identity or track the origins and emergence of newly identified pathogens. In this report, we describe how PCR-based technologies are beginning to interface with international screening programmes for the diagnosis and genetic characterization of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). In particular, we review recent progress using DBS specimens to resolve the HIV-1 infection status of neonates, monitor the genetic evolution of HIV-1 during early infancy and establish a sentinel surveillance system for the systematic monitoring of HIV-1 genetic variation in Asia.

Taxonomy and biology of Culex (Culex) maxi Dyar (Diptera: Culicidae) in South America

Culex (Culex) maxi Dyar is described in the adult, pupal and larval stages, and the male genitalia and parts of the fourth-instar larva are illustrated. The larva is described for the first time. The paper includes a summary of available information on the taxonomy, bionomics and distribution of the species. The taxonomy and identification of the species are reviewed in light of current knowledge of the subgenus Culex in the New World.

Origins and efficiency of the electric industry regulation in Spain, 1910-1936

The aim of this paper is to discover the origins of utility regulation in Spain, and to analyse, from a microeconomic perspective, its characteristics and the impact of regulation on consumers and utilities. Madrid and the Madrilenian utilities are taken as a case study. The electric industry in the period studied was a natural monopoly2. Each of the three phases of production, generation, transmission and distribution, had natural monopoly characteristics. Therefore, the most efficient form to generate, transmit and distribute electricity was the monopoly because one firm can produce a quantity at a lower cost than the sum of costs incurred by two or more firms. A problem arises because when a firm is the single provider it can charge prices above the marginal cost, at monopoly prices. When a monopolist reduces the quantity produced, price increases, causing the consumer to demand less than the economic efficiency level, incurring a loss of consumer surplus. The loss of the consumer surplus is not completely gained by the monopolist, causing a loss of social surplus, a deadweight loss. The main objective of regulation is going to be to reduce to a minimum the deadweight loss. Regulation is also needed because when the monopolist fixes prices at marginal cost equal marginal revenue there would be an incentive for firms to enter the market creating inefficiency. The Madrilenian industry has been chosen because of the availability of statistical information on costs and production. The complex industry structure and the atomised demand add interest to the analysis. This study will also provide some light on the tariff regulation of the period which has been poorly studied and will complement the literature on the US electric utilities regulation where a different type of regulation was implemented.

Evolution and recent developments of Spanish wine sector, 1950-2008

Since the 1980s the traditional European winegrowing regions have been carrying out deep changes in response to the onslaught of winegrowers in the New World. In recent years Spanish regions have been foremost in Europe in terms of change in areas turned over to wine production and distribution. This study analyses the main sequences of changes the Spanish wine industry has undergone: the evolution of consumption through the changes in consumer drinking habits; the leading role of exports in international markets; the spread of different types of marketing and business organization; the distribution in large and small sellers, and the main factors that have been involved in the chain of production and in the modernization of the wineries.

TcruziDB, an Integrated Database, and the WWW Information Server for the Trypanosoma cruzi Genome Project

Data analysis, presentation and distribution is of utmost importance to a genome project. A public domain software, ACeDB, has been chosen as the common basis for parasite genome databases, and a first release of TcruziDB, the Trypanosoma cruzi genome database, is available by ftp from ftp://iris.dbbm.fiocruz.br/pub/genomedb/TcruziDB as well as versions of the software for different operating systems (ftp://iris.dbbm.fiocruz.br/pub/unixsoft/). Moreover, data originated from the project are available from the WWW server at http://www.dbbm.fiocruz.br. It contains biological and parasitological data on CL Brener, its karyotype, all available T. cruzi sequences from Genbank, data on the EST-sequencing project and on available libraries, a T. cruzi codon table and a listing of activities and participating groups in the genome project, as well as meeting reports. T. cruzi discussion lists (tcruzi-l@iris.dbbm.fiocruz.br and tcgenics@iris.dbbm.fiocruz.br) are being maintained for communication and to promote collaboration in the genome project

Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Serotypes of Vibrio cholerae Non-O1 Isolated from Water Supplies for Human Consumption in Campeche, México and their Antibiotic Susceptibility Pattern

The presence of Vibrio cholerae non-O1 in water supplies for human consumption in the city of Campeche and rural locality of Bécal was investigated. V. cholerae non-O1 was detected in 5.9% of the samples obtained in deep pools of Campeche. Studies conducted in Bécal and neighbourhood of Morelos in Campeche indicated that collected samples harbored V. cholerae non-O1 in 31.5% and 8.7% respectively. There was a particular pattern of distribution of V. cholerae non-O1 serotypes among different studied regions. Accordingly, V. cholerae non-O1 serotype O14 predominated in the deep pools of Campeche and together with V. cholerae non-O1, O155 were preferentially founds in samples taken from intradomiciliary faucets in the neighbourhood of Morelos. Samples from Bécal predominantly presented the serotype O112. 60% and 53.8% of all studied strains of V. cholerae non-O1 proved to be resistant to ampicillin and carbenicillin. 3.1%, 7.7% and 6.2% presented resistant to doxycycline, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and erythromycin respectively. The study showed the necessity of performing a strong epidemiologic surveillance for emergence and distribution of V. cholerae non-O1

IPH response to Department, Trade and Investment (NI) draft strategic energy framework

The draft Framework set out the proposed priorities for Northern Ireland's energy future over the next ten years or so and illustrates the key energy goals in term of competitiveness, security of energy supply, sustainablilty and infrastructure investment. It also proposes new and ambitious renewable electricity and renewable heat targets by 2020, which reflect the need for effected action against climate change and the need to address other policy goals in terms of security and sustainability of supply and costs.

Profitability, uncertainty and multi-product firm product proliferation: The Spanish car industry

This article studies how product introduction decisions relate to profitability and uncertainty in the context of multi-product firms and product differentiation. These two features, common to many modern industries, have not received much attention in the literature as compared to the classical problem of firm entry, even if the determinants of firm and product entry are quite different. The theoretical predictions about the sign of the impact of uncertainty on product entry are not conclusive. Therefore, an econometric model relating firms’ product introduction decisions with profitability and profit uncertainty is proposed. Firm’s estimated profits are obtained from a structural model of product demand and supply, and uncertainty is proxied by profits’ variance. The empirical analysis is carried out using data on the Spanish car industry for the period 1990-2000. The results show a positive relationship between product introduction and profitability, and a negative one with respect to profit variability. Interestingly, the degree of uncertainty appears to be a driving force of entry stronger than profitability, suggesting that the product proliferation process in the Spanish car market may have been mainly a consequence of lower uncertainty rather than the result of having a more profitable market. Keywords: Product introduction, entry, uncertainty, multiproduct firms, automobile JEL codes: L11, L13