Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda

The dependence of much of Africa on rain fed agriculture leads to a high vulnerability to fluctuations in rainfall amount. Hence, accurate monitoring of near-real time rainfall is particularly useful, for example in forewarning possible crop shortfalls in drought-prone areas. Unfortunately, ground based observations are often inadequate. Rainfall estimates from satellite-based algorithms and numerical model outputs can fill this data gap, however rigorous assessment of such estimates is required. In this case, three satellite based products (NOAA-RFE 2.0, GPCP-1DD and TAMSAT) and two numerical model outputs (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) have been evaluated for Uganda in East Africa using a network of 27 rain gauges. The study focuses on the years 2001 to 2005 and considers the main rainy season (February to June). All data sets were converted to the same temporal and spatial scales. Kriging was used for the spatial interpolation of the gauge data. All three satellite products showed similar characteristics and had a high level of skill that exceeded both model outputs. ERA-Interim had a tendency to overestimate whilst ERA-40 consistently underestimated the Ugandan rainfall.

Provider diversity in the NHS: impact on quality and innovation

The overall objective of the research project has been to assess the impact of provider diversity on quality and innovation in the NHS. The specific research aims were to identify the differences in performance between non-profit Third Sector organisations, for-profit private enterprises, and incumbent public sector institutions within the NHS as providers of health care services, as well as the factors that affect the entry and growth of new private and Third Sector providers. The study used both qualitative and quantitative methods based on case studies of four Local Health Economies (LHEs). Qualitative methods included documentary analysis and interviews with key informants and managers of both commissioning and provider organisations. To provide a focus to the study, two tracer conditions were followed: orthopaedic surgery and home health care for frail older people. In the case of hospital inpatient care, data on patient characteristics were also collected from the HES database. The analysis of this data provided preliminary estimates of the effects of provider type on quality, controlling for client characteristics and case mix. In addition, a survey of patient experience in diverse provider organisations was analysed to compare the different dimensions of quality of provision of acute services between incumbent NHS organisations and new independent sector treatment centres. The research has shown that, in respect of inpatient hospital services, diverse providers supply health services of at least as good quality as traditional NHS providers, and that there is ample opportunity to expand their scale and scope as providers of services commissioned by the NHS. The research used patient experience survey data to investigate whether hospital ownership affects the quality of services reported by NHS patients in areas other than clinical quality. The raw survey data appear to show that private hospitals provide higher quality services than the public hospitals. However, further empirical analysis leads to a more nuanced understanding of the performance differences. Firstly, the analysis shows that each sector offers greater quality in certain specialties. Secondly, the analysis shows that differences in the quality of patients’ reported experience are mainly attributable to patient characteristics, the selection of patients into each type of hospital, and the characteristics of individual hospitals, rather than to hospital ownership as such. Controlling for such differences, NHS patients are on average likely to experience a similar quality of care in a public or privately-run hospital. Nevertheless, for specific groups of patients and for specific types of treatments, especially the more straightforward ones, the private sector provides an improved patient experience compared to the public sector. Elsewhere, the NHS continues to provide a high quality service and outperforms the private sector in a range of services and for a range of clients.

A holistic method to assess building energy efficiency combining D-S theory and the evidential reasoning approach

The assessment of building energy efficiency is one of the most effective measures for reducing building energy consumption. This paper proposes a holistic method (HMEEB) for assessing and certifying building energy efficiency based on the D-S (Dempster-Shafer) theory of evidence and the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach. HMEEB has three main features: (i) it provides both a method to assess and certify building energy efficiency, and exists as an analytical tool to identify improvement opportunities; (ii) it combines a wealth of information on building energy efficiency assessment, including identification of indicators and a weighting mechanism; and (iii) it provides a method to identify and deal with inherent uncertainties within the assessment procedure. This paper demonstrates the robustness, flexibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, using two examples to assess the energy efficiency of two residential buildings, both located in the ‘Hot Summer and Cold Winter’ zone in China. The proposed certification method provides detailed recommendations for policymakers in the context of carbon emission reduction targets and promoting energy efficiency in the built environment. The method is transferable to other countries and regions, using an indicator weighting system to modify local climatic, economic and social factors.

Evaluation of field wetlands for mitigation of diffuse pollution from agriculture: sediment retention, cost and effectiveness

Diffuse pollution, and the contribution from agriculture in particular, has become increasingly important as pollution from point sources has been addressed by wastewater treatment. Land management approaches, such as construction of field wetlands, provide one group of mitigation options available to farmers. Although field wetlands are widely used for diffuse pollution control in temperate environments worldwide, there is a shortage of evidence for the effectiveness and viability of these mitigation options in the UK. The Mitigation Options for Phosphorus and Sediment Project aims to make recommendations regarding the design and effectiveness of field wetlands for diffuse pollution control in UK landscapes. Ten wetlands have been built on four farms in Cumbria and Leicestershire. This paper focuses on sediment retention within the wetlands, estimated from annual sediment surveys in the first two years, and discusses establishment costs. It is clear that the wetlands are effective in trapping a substantial amount of sediment. Estimates of annual sediment retention suggest higher trapping rates at sandy sites (0.5–6 t ha�1 yr�1), compared to silty sites (0.02–0.4 t ha�1 yr�1) and clay sites (0.01–0.07 t ha�1 yr�1). Establishment costs for the wetlands ranged from £280 to £3100 and depended more on site specific factors, such as fencing and gateways on livestock farms, rather than on wetland size or design. Wetlands with lower trapping rates would also have lower maintenance costs, as dredging would be required less frequently. The results indicate that field wetlands show promise for inclusion in agri-environment schemes, particularly if capital payments can be provided for establishment, to encourage uptake of these multi-functional features.

Happiness, well-being and housing policy

The literature on the meaning of home emphasises the security, positive meaning and self-esteem that home generates. However, housing policy has traditionally viewed houses as units of accommodation rather than homes. This article tackles the question of whether it is possible to devise a housing policy that aims at improving the self-esteem and positive identity of residents. The article reviews the growing literature stressing the importance of seeking to promote happiness or well-being as the primary objective of government policy and concludes with an evaluation of the potential for the application of these ideas to housing policy.

Evaluation of the use of high-density SNP genotyping to implement UPOV Model 2 for DUS testing in barley

Developments in high-throughput genotyping provide an opportunity to explore the application of marker technology in distinctness, uniformity and stability (DUS) testing of new varieties. We have used a large set of molecular markers to assess the feasibility of a UPOV Model 2 approach: “Calibration of threshold levels for molecular characteristics against the minimum distance in traditional characteristics”. We have examined 431 winter and spring barley varieties, with data from UK DUS trials comprising 28 characteristics, together with genotype data from 3072 SNP markers. Inter varietal distances were calculated and we found higher correlations between molecular and morphological distances than have been previously reported. When varieties were grouped by kinship, phenotypic and genotypic distances of these groups correlated well. We estimated the minimum marker numbers required and showed there was a ceiling after which the correlations do not improve. To investigate the possibility of breaking through this ceiling, we attempted genomic prediction of phenotypes from genotypes and higher correlations were achieved. We tested distinctness decisions made using either morphological or genotypic distances and found poor correspondence between each method.

Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models are increasing in complexity and incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them important tools for studying the global carbon cycle. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes, with coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulating total land carbon stores by 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous model evaluation methodologies. Here we assess the state-of-the-art with respect to evaluation of Earth system models, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeo data and (ii) metrics for evaluation, and discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute towards the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but it is also a challenge, as more knowledge about data uncertainties is required in order to determine robust evaluation methodologies that move the field of ESM evaluation from "beauty contest" toward the development of useful constraints on model behaviour.

Evaluation of a photosynthesis-based biogenic isoprene emission scheme in JULES and simulation of isoprene emissions under present-day climate conditions

We have incorporated a semi-mechanistic isoprene emission module into the JULES land-surface scheme, as a first step towards a modelling tool that can be applied for studies of vegetation – atmospheric chemistry interactions, including chemistry-climate feedbacks. Here, we evaluate the coupled model against local above-canopy isoprene emission flux measurements from six flux tower sites as well as satellite-derived estimates of isoprene emission over tropical South America and east and south Asia. The model simulates diurnal variability well: correlation coefficients are significant (at the 95 % level) for all flux tower sites. The model reproduces day-to-day variability with significant correlations (at the 95 % confidence level) at four of the six flux tower sites. At the UMBS site, a complete set of seasonal observations is available for two years (2000 and 2002). The model reproduces the seasonal pattern of emission during 2002, but does less well in the year 2000. The model overestimates observed emissions at all sites, which is partially because it does not include isoprene loss through the canopy. Comparison with the satellite-derived isoprene-emission estimates suggests that the model simulates the main spatial patterns, seasonal and inter-annual variability over tropical regions. The model yields a global annual isoprene emission of 535 ± 9 TgC yr−1 during the 1990s, 78 % of which from forested areas.

Evaluation of reach and grasp robot-assisted therapy suggests similar functional recovery patterns on proximal and distal arm segments in sub-acute hemiplegia

This paper provides some additional evidence in support of the hypothesis that robot therapies are clinically beneficial in neurorehabilitation. Although only 4 subjects were included in the study, the design of the intervention and the measures were done so as to minimise bias. The results are presented as single case studies, and can only be interpreted as such due to the study size. The intensity of intervention was 16 hours and the therapy philosophy (based on Carr and Shepherd) was that coordinated movements are preferable to joint based therapies, and that coordinating distal movements (in this case grasps) helps not only to recover function in these areas, but has greater value since the results are immediately transferable to daily skills such as reach and grasp movements.

Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes.

Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

High resolution surface wind fields covering the global ocean, estimated from remotely sensed wind data and ECMWF wind analyses, have been available since 2005 with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees in longitude and latitude, and a temporal resolution of 6h. Their quality is investigated through various comparisons with surface wind vectors from 190 buoys moored in various oceanic basins, from research vessels and from QuikSCAT scatterometer data taken during 2005-2006. The NCEP/NCAR and NCDC blended wind products are also considered. The comparisons performed during January-December 2005 show that speeds and directions compare well to in-situ observations, including from moored buoys and ships, as well as to the remotely sensed data. The root-mean-squared differences of the wind speed and direction for the new blended wind data are lower than 2m/s and 30 degrees, respectively. These values are similar to those estimated in the comparisons of hourly buoy measurements and QuickSCAT near real time retrievals. At global scale, it is found that the new products compare well with the wind speed and wind vector components observed by QuikSCAT. No significant dependencies on the QuikSCAT wind speed or on the oceanic region considered are evident.Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

A novel ensemble method for retrieving properties of warm cloud in 3-D using ground-based scanning radar and zenith radiances

We present a novel method for retrieving high-resolution, three-dimensional (3-D) nonprecipitating cloud fields in both overcast and broken-cloud situations. The method uses scanning cloud radar and multiwavelength zenith radiances to obtain gridded 3-D liquid water content (LWC) and effective radius (re) and 2-D column mean droplet number concentration (Nd). By using an adaption of the ensemble Kalman filter, radiances are used to constrain the optical properties of the clouds using a forward model that employs full 3-D radiative transfer while also providing full error statistics given the uncertainty in the observations. To evaluate the new method, we first perform retrievals using synthetic measurements from a challenging cumulus cloud field produced by a large-eddy simulation snapshot. Uncertainty due to measurement error in overhead clouds is estimated at 20% in LWC and 6% in re, but the true error can be greater due to uncertainties in the assumed droplet size distribution and radiative transfer. Over the entire domain, LWC and re are retrieved with average error 0.05–0.08 g m-3 and ~2 μm, respectively, depending on the number of radiance channels used. The method is then evaluated using real data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Mobile Facility at the Azores. Two case studies are considered, one stratocumulus and one cumulus. Where available, the liquid water path retrieved directly above the observation site was found to be in good agreement with independent values obtained from microwave radiometer measurements, with an error of 20 g m-2.

Strategy Method (and payment cards)

Payment cards are a useful device to measure subjects’ preferences for a good and especially their willingness to pay for it. Together with some other similar elicitation methods, payment cards are especially appropriate for both hypothetical and incentive-compatible valuations of a good; a property which has prompted many researchers to use them in studies comparing stated and revealed valuations. The Strategy Method (hereafter SM) is a method based on a similar principle as that of payment cards, but is aimed at eliciting a subject’s full profile of responses to each of the strategies available to the rival(s).