A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Retention half times in the skeleton of plutonium and 90Sr from above-ground nuclear tests: a retrospective study of the Swiss population.

Plutonium and (90)Sr are considered to be among the most radiotoxic nuclides produced by the nuclear fission process. In spite of numerous studies on mammals and humans there is still no general agreement on the retention half time of both radionuclides in the skeleton in the general population. Here we determined plutonium and (90)Sr in human vertebrae in individuals deceased between 1960 and 2004 in Switzerland. Plutonium was measured by sensitive SF-ICP-MS techniques and (90)Sr by radiometric methods. We compared our results to the ones obtained for other environmental compartments to reveal the retention half time of NBT fallout (239)Pu and (90)Sr in trabecular bones of the Swiss population. Results show that plutonium has a retention half time of 40+/-14 years. In contrast (90)Sr has a shorter retention half time of 13.5+/-1.0 years. Moreover (90)Sr retention half time in vertebrae is shown to be linked to the retention half time in food and other environmental compartments. These findings demonstrate that the renewal of the vertebrae through calcium homeostatic control is faster for (90)Sr excretion than for plutonium excretion. The precise determination of the retention half time of plutonium in the skeleton will improve the biokinetic model of plutonium metabolism in humans.

Feasibility and electromagnetic compatibility study of the ClearPEM front-end electronics for simultaneous PET-MR imaging

In this work we present a first feasibility study of the ClearPEM technology for simultaneous PET-MR imaging. The mutual electromagnetic interference (EMI) effects between both systems were evaluated on a 7 T magnet by characterizing the response behavior of the ClearPEM detectors and front-end electronics to pulsed RF power and switched magnetic field gradients; and by analyzing the MR system performance degradation from noise pickup into the RF receiver chain, and from magnetic susceptibility artifacts caused by PET front-end materials.

Time of injury in the light of acute and hazardous usual alcohol consumption - A study among emergency department patients.

Purpose: To investigate how prior-to-injury and usual alcohol consumption relate to time of injury. Patients and methods: The associations between injury time of day and day of week and prior-to-injury (labeled as "acute") alcohol intake and hazardous usual alcohol consumption (considered from the point of view of both heavy episodic drinking [HED] and risky volumes of consumption) are assessed using interview data from a randomized sample of 486 injured patients treated in a Swiss emergency department (ED; Lausanne University Hospital). Results: Acute consumption was associated with both injury time of day and day of week, HED with day of week only, and risky volume with none. Conclusions: Acute consumption and HED, but not risky volume of consumption, show specific time distributions for injuries. These findings highlight the potential importance of considering the time dimension of an injury when providing emergency care and have additional implications for interventions aimed at influencing the alcohol consumption of injured patients presenting to the ED.

Systematic study of the static electrical properties of the CO molecule: influence of the basis set size and correlation energy

The influence of the basis set size and the correlation energy in the static electrical properties of the CO molecule is assessed. In particular, we have studied both the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the static molecular electrical properties, the vibrational Stark effect (VSE) and the vibrational intensity effect (VIE). From a mathematical point of view, when a static and uniform electric field is applied to a molecule, the energy of this system can be expressed in terms of a double power series with respect to the bond length and to the field strength. From the power series expansion of the potential energy, field-dependent expressions for the equilibrium geometry, for the potential energy and for the force constant are obtained. The nuclear relaxation and vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties are analyzed in terms of the derivatives of the electronic molecular properties. In general, the results presented show that accurate inclusion of the correlation energy and large basis sets are needed to calculate the molecular electrical properties and their derivatives with respect to either nuclear displacements or/and field strength. With respect to experimental data, the calculated power series coefficients are overestimated by the SCF, CISD, and QCISD methods. On the contrary, perturbation methods (MP2 and MP4) tend to underestimate them. In average and using the 6-311 + G(3df) basis set and for the CO molecule, the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties amount to 11.7%, 3.3%, and 69.7% of the purely electronic μ, α, and β values, respectively

Comparative effects of teriparatide and ibandronate on spine bone mineral density (BMD) and microarchitecture (TBS) in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: a 2-year open-label study.

Treatment effects over 2 years of teriparatide vs. ibandronate in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis were compared using lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS). Teriparatide induced larger increases in BMD and TBS compared to ibandronate, suggesting a more pronounced effect on bone microarchitecture of the bone anabolic drug. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an index of bone microarchitecture, independent of bone mineral density (BMD), calculated from anteroposterior spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. The potential role of TBS for monitoring treatment response with bone-active substances is not established. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of recombinant human 1-34 parathyroid hormone (teriparatide) and the bisphosphonate ibandronate (IBN), on lumbar spine (LS) BMD and TBS in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. METHODS: Two patient groups with matched age, body mass index (BMI), and baseline LS BMD, treated with either daily subcutaneous teriparatide (N = 65) or quarterly intravenous IBN (N = 122) during 2 years and with available LS BMD measurements at baseline and 2 years after treatment initiation were compared. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics (overall mean ± SD) were similar between groups in terms of age 67.9 ± 7.4 years, body mass index 23.8 ± 3.8 kg/m(2), BMD L1-L4 0.741 ± 0.100 g/cm(2), and TBS 1.208 ± 0.100. Over 24 months, teriparatide induced a significantly larger increase in LS BMD and TBS than IBN (+7.6 % ± 6.3 vs. +2.9 % ± 3.3 and +4.3 % ± 6.6 vs. +0.3 % ± 4.1, respectively; P < 0.0001 for both). LS BMD and TBS were only weakly correlated at baseline (r (2) = 0.04) with no correlation between the changes in BMD and TBS over 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, a 2-year treatment with teriparatide led to a significantly larger increase in LS BMD and TBS than IBN, suggesting that teriparatide had more pronounced effects on bone microarchitecture than IBN.

Radiothérapie externe accélérée postopératoire des carcinomes épidermoïdes localement évolués de la sphère ORL: étude prospective de phase II [Prospective study of accelerated postoperative radiation therapy in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck]

PURPOSE: To assess the feasibility and efficacy of accelerated postoperative radiation therapy (RT) in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between December 1997 and July 2001, 68 patients (male to female ratio: 52/16; median age: 60-years (range: 43-81) with pT1-pT4 and/or pN0-pN3 SCCHN (24 oropharynx, 19 oral cavity, 13 hypopharynx, 5 larynx, 3 unknown primary, 2 maxillary sinus, and 2 salivary gland) were included in this prospective study. Postoperative RT was indicated because extracapsular infiltration (ECI) was observed in 20 (29%), positive surgical margins (PSM) in 20 (29%) or both in 23 patients (34%). Treatment consisted of external beam RT 66 Gy in 5 weeks and 3 days. Median follow-up was 15 months. RESULTS: According to CTC 2.0, acute morbidity was acceptable: grade 3 mucositis was observed in 15 (22%) patients, grade 3 dysphagia in 19 (28%) patients, grade 3 skin erythema in 21 (31%) patients with a median weight loss of 3.1 kg (range: 0-16). No grade 4 toxicity was observed. Median time to relapse was 13 months; we observed only three (4%) local and four (6%) regional relapses, whereas eight (12%) patients developed distant metastases without any evidence of locoregional recurrence. The 2 years overall-, disease-free survival, and actuarial locoregional control rates were 85, 73 and 83% respectively. CONCLUSION: The reduction of the overall treatment time using postoperative accelerated RT with weekly concomitant boost (six fractions per week) is feasible with local control rates comparable to that of published data. Acute RT-related morbidity is acceptable.

Registries in rheumatological and musculoskeletal conditions. Paediatric Behçet's disease: an international cohort study of 110 patients. One-year follow-up data.

OBJECTIVE: To set-up an international cohort of patients suspected with Behçet's disease (BD). The cohort is aimed at defining an algorithm for definition of the disease in children. METHODS: International experts have defined the inclusion criteria as follows: recurrent oral aphthosis (ROA) plus one of following-genital ulceration, erythema nodosum, folliculitis, pustulous/acneiform lesions, positive pathergy test, uveitis, venous/arterial thrombosis and family history of BD. Onset of disease is <16 years, disease duration is ≤3 years, future follow-up duration is ≥4 years and informed consent is obtained. The expert committee has classified the included patients into: definite paediatric BD (PED-BD), probable PED-BD and no PED-BD. Statistical analysis is performed to compare the three groups of patients. Centres document their patients into a single database. RESULTS: At January 2010, 110 patients (56 males/54 females) have been included. Mean age at first symptom: 8.1 years (median 8.2 years). At inclusion, 38% had only one symptom associated with ROA, 31% had two and 31% had three or more symptoms. A total of 106 first evaluations have been done. Seventeen patients underwent the first-year evaluation, and 36 had no new symptoms, 12 had one and 9 had two. Experts have examined 48 files and classified 30 as definite and 18 as probable. Twenty-six patients classified as definite fulfilled the International Study Group criteria. Seventeen patients classified as probable did not meet the international criteria. CONCLUSION: The expert committee has classified the majority of patients in the BD group although they presented with few symptoms independently of BD classification criteria.

Correlates of frailty, prediction of functional decline and preventative approaches - selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (lc65+) study (Switzerland) (Lausanne) and the longitudinal urban cohort ageing study (Lucas) (Germany)

Overall introduction.- Longitudinal studies have been designed to investigate prospectively, from their beginning, the pathway leading from health to frailty and to disability. Knowledge about determinants of healthy ageing and health behaviour (resources) as well as risks of functional decline is required to propose appropriate preventative interventions. The functional status in older people is important considering clinical outcome in general, healthcare need and mortality. Part I.- Results and interventions from lucas (longitudinal urban cohort ageing study). Authors.- J. Anders, U. Dapp, L. Neumann, F. Pröfener, C. Minder, S. Golgert, A. Daubmann, K. Wegscheider,. W. von Renteln-Kruse Methods.- The LUCAS core project is a longitudinal cohort of urban community-dwelling people 60 years and older, recruited in 2000/2001. Further LUCAS projects are cross-sectional comparative and interventional studies (RCT). Results.- The emphasis will be on geriatric medical care in a population-based approach, discussing different forms of access, too. (Dapp et al. BMC Geriatrics 2012, 12:35; http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2318/12/35): - longitudinal data from the LUCAS urban cohort (n = 3.326) will be presented covering 10 years of observation, including the prediction of functional decline, need of nursing care, and mortality by using a self-filling screening tool; - interventions to prevent functional decline do focus on first (pre-clinical) signs of pre-frailty before entering the frailty-cascade ("Active Health Promotion in Old Age", "geriatric mobility centre") or disability ("home visits"). Conclusions.- The LUCAS research consortium was established to study particular aspects of functional competence, its changes with ageing, to detect pre-clinical signs of functional decline, and to address questions on how to maintain functional competence and to prevent adverse outcome in different settings. The multidimensional data base allows the exploration of several further questions. Gait performance was exmined by GAITRite®-System. Supported by the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF Funding No. 01ET1002A). Part II.- Selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ) Study (Switzerland). Authors.- Prof Santos-Eggimann Brigitte, Dr Seematter-Bagnoud Laurence, Prof Büla Christophe, Dr Rochat Stéphane. Methods.- The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). Results.- Information is collected about life course social and health-related events, socio-economics, medical and psychosocial dimensions, lifestyle habits, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, and falls. Gait performance are objectively measured using body-fixed sensors. Frailty is assessed using Fried's frailty phenotype. Follow-up consists in annual self-completed questionnaires, as well as physical examination and physical and mental performance tests every three years. - Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ): design and longitudinal outcomes. The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through self-completed questionnaires, face-to-face interviews, physical examination and tests of mental and physical performances. Information about institutionalization, self-reported health services utilization, and death is also assessed. An additional random sample (n = 1525) of 65-70 years old subjects was recruited in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943). - lecture no 4: alcohol intake and gait parameters: prevalent and longitudinal association in the Lc65+ study. The association between alcohol intake and gait performance was investigated.

Atrioventricular septal defects among infants in Europe: a population-based study of prevalence, associated anomalies, and survival.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology of chromosomal and non-chromosomal cases of atrioventricular septal defects in Europe. METHODS: Data were obtained from EUROCAT, a European network of population-based registries collecting data on congenital anomalies. Data from 13 registries for the period 2000-2008 were included. RESULTS: There was a total of 993 cases of atrioventricular septal defects, with a total prevalence of 5.3 per 10,000 births (95% confidence interval 4.1 to 6.5). Of the total cases, 250 were isolated cardiac lesions, 583 were chromosomal cases, 79 had multiple anomalies, 58 had heterotaxia sequence, and 23 had a monogenic syndrome. The total prevalence of chromosomal cases was 3.1 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval 1.9 to 4.3), with a large variation between registers. Of the 993 cases, 639 cases were live births, 45 were stillbirths, and 309 were terminations of pregnancy owing to foetal anomaly. Among the groups, additional associated cardiac anomalies were most frequent in heterotaxia cases (38%) and least frequent in chromosomal cases (8%). Coarctation of the aorta was the most common associated cardiac defect. The 1-week survival rate for live births was 94%. CONCLUSION: Of all cases, three-quarters were associated with other anomalies, both chromosomal and non-chromosomal. For infants with atrioventricular septal defects and no chromosomal anomalies, cardiac defects were often more complex compared with infants with atrioventricular septal defects and a chromosomal anomaly. Clinical outcomes for atrioventricular septal defects varied between regions. The proportion of termination of pregnancy for foetal anomaly was higher for cases with multiple anomalies, chromosomal anomalies, and heterotaxia sequence.

A Prospective Multicenter SPOG 2003 FN Study of Microbiologically Defined Infections in Pediatric Cancer Patients with Fever and Neutropenia.

BACKGROUND: Fever and neutropenia (FN) often complicate anticancer treatment and can be caused by potentially fatal infections. Knowledge of pathogen distribution is paramount for optimal patient management. METHODS: Microbiologically defined infections (MDI) in pediatric cancer patients presenting with FN by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy enrolled in a prospective multi-center study were analyzed. Effectiveness of empiric antibiotic therapy in FN episodes with bacteremia was assessed taking into consideration recently published treatment guidelines for pediatric patients with FN. RESULTS: MDI were identified in a minority (22%) of pediatric cancer patients with FN. In patients with, compared to without MDI, fever (median, 5 [IQR 3-8] vs. 2 [IQR1-3] days, p < 0.001) and hospitalization (10 [6-14] vs. 5 [3-8] days, p < 0.001) lasted longer, transfer to the intensive care unit was more likely (13 of 95 [14%] vs. 7 of 346 [2.0%], p < 0.001), and antibiotics were given longer (10 [7-14] vs. 5 [4-7], p < 0.001). Empiric antibiotic therapy in FN episodes with bacteremia was highly effective if not only intrinsic and reported antimicrobial susceptibilities were considered but the purposeful omission of coverage for coagulase negative staphylococci and enterococci was also taken into account (81% [95%CI 68 - 90] vs. 96.6% [95%CI 87 - 99.4], p = 0.004) CONCLUSIONS: MDI were identified in a minority of FN episodes but they significantly affected management and the clinical course of pediatric cancer patients. Compliance with published guidelines was associated with effectiveness of empiric antibiotic therapy in FN episodes with bacteremia.

Efforts to standardise Ki-67 counting in breast cancer. A pilot study of the Swiss Working Group of Gyneco- and Breast Pathologists

Goals: Adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in breast cancer are increasing based on the pathologist's assessment of the proliferation fraction in the tumor. Yet, how good and how reproducible are we pathologists at providing reliable Ki-67 readings on breast carcinomas. Exactly how to count and in which areas to count within a tumor remains inadequately standardized. The Swiss Working Group of Gyneco- and Breast Pathologists has tried to appreciate this dilemma and to propose ways to obtain more reproducible results.Methods: In a first phase, 5 pathologists evaluated Ki67 counts in 10 breast cancers by exact counting (500 cells) and by eyeballing. Pathologists were free to select the region in which Ki67 was evaluated. In a second phase 16 pathologists evaluated Ki-67 counts in 3 breast cancers also by exact counting and eyeballing, but in predefined fields of interest. In both phases, Ki67 was assessed in centrally immunostained slides (ZH) and on slides immunostained in the 11 participating laboratories. In a third phase, these same 16 pathologists were once again asked to read the 3 cases from phase 2, plus three new cases, and this time exact guidelines were provided as to what exactly is considered a Ki-67 positive nucleus.Results: Discordance of Ki67 assessment was due to each of the following 4 factors: (i) pathologists' divergent definitions of what counts as a positive nucleus (ii) the mode of assessment (counting vs. eyeballing), (iii) immunostaining technique/protocol/antibody, and (iv) the selection of the area in which to count.Conclusion: Providing guidelines as to where to count (representative field in the tumor periphery and omitting hot spots) and what nuclei to count (even faintly immunostained nuclei count as positive) reduces the discordance rates of Ki67 readings between pathologists. Laboratory technique is only of minor importance (even over a large antibody dilution range), and counting nuclei does not improve accuracy, but rather aggravates deviations from the group mean values.Disclosure of Interest: None Declared

Evaluation of sample preparation methods and optimization of nickel determination in vegetable tissues

Nickel, although essential to plants, may be toxic to plants and animals. It is mainly assimilated by food ingestion. However, information about the average levels of elements (including Ni) in edible vegetables from different regions is still scarce in Brazil. The objectives of this study were to: (a) evaluate and optimize a method for preparation of vegetable tissue samples for Ni determination; (b) optimize the analytical procedures for determination by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (FAAS) and by Electrothermal Atomic Absorption (ETAAS) in vegetable samples and (c) determine the Ni concentration in vegetables consumed in the cities of Lorena and Taubaté in the Vale do Paraíba, State of São Paulo, Brazil. By means of the analytical technique for determination by ETAAS or FAAS, the results were validated by the test of analyte addition and recovery. The most viable method tested for quantification of this element was HClO4-HNO3 wet digestion. All samples but carrot tissue collected in Lorena contained Ni levels above the permitted by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The most disturbing results, requiring more detailed studies, were the Ni concentrations measured in carrot samples from Taubaté, where levels were five times higher than permitted by Brazilian regulations.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Evolution of spirituality and religiousness in chronic schizophrenia or schizo-affective disorders: A 3 years follow-up study

Purpose : Spirituality and religiousness have been shown to be highly prevalent in patients with schizophrenia. Religion can help instil a positive sense of self, decrease the impact of symptoms and provide social contacts. Religion may also be a source of suffering. In this context, this research explores whether religion remains stable over time. Methods : From an initial cohort of 115 out-patients, 80% completed the 3-years follow-up assessment. In order to study the evolution over time, a hierarchical cluster analysis using average linkage was performed on factorial scores at baseline and follow-up and their differences. A sensitivity analysis was secondarily performed to check if the outcome was influenced by other factors such as changes in mental states using mixed models. Results : Religion was stable over time for 63% patients; positive changes occurred for 20% (i.e., significant increase of religion as a resource or a transformation of negative religion to a positive one) and negative changes for 17% (i.e., decrease of religion as a resource or a transformation of positive religion to a negative one). Change in spirituality and/or religiousness was not associated with social or clinical status, but with reduced subjective quality of life and self-esteem; even after controlling for the influence of age, gender, quality of life and clinical factors at baseline. Conclusions : In this context of patients with chronic schizophrenia, religion appeared to be labile. Qualitative analyses showed that those changes expressed the struggles of patients and suggest that religious issues need to be discussed in clinical settings.