Factors influencing the evolution of e-commerce : an empirical analysis in a developed market economy

Peer-reviewed

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility: a connectedness analysis

This paper measures the connectedness in EMU sovereign market volatility between April 1999 and January 2014, in order to monitor stress transmission and to identify episodes of intensive spillovers from one country to the others. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each country and apply panel model techniques to investigate its determinants. Finally, to gain further insights, we examine the timevarying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness at different stages of the recent sovereign debt crisis.

Local human capital and productivity: An analysis for Spanish regions

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the stock of human capital and productivity in the Spanish regions (NUTS III), and assess whether the transmission channel involves external economies. The empirical evidence points to a positive relationship between the two variables, although it cannot be explained in terms of the impact of exogenous local human capital external economies, but rather in terms of other demand factors.

Asymptotic analysis of stock price densities and implied volatilities in mixed stochastic models

In this paper, we obtain sharp asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the Mellin con- volution of functions de ned on (0;1), and use these formulas to characterize the asymptotic behavior of marginal distribution densities of stock price processes in mixed stochastic models. Special examples of mixed models are jump-di usion models and stochastic volatility models with jumps. We apply our general results to the Heston model with double exponential jumps, and make a detailed analysis of the asymptotic behavior of the stock price density, the call option pricing function, and the implied volatility in this model. We also obtain similar results for the Heston model with jumps distributed according to the NIG law.

Productivity, Technical eficiency and internationalisation of the Spanish chemical sector

relationship between productivity and international position of Spanish chemical firms in the period 2005-2011. The goal is to determine whether companies that follow and international strategy, either with exports or by investment in foreign countries obtain greater productivity growth than these that do not operate in global market. For this purpose a panel data set with microdata has been created. A preliminary analysis of the evolution of productivity growth in the sector is carried out. The measurement of Total Factor Productivity is performed. With the estimated TFP we analyze the differentials in productivity growth, comparing the effects of export and investment behavior with non-international firms.

Analysis of Patterns in Electricity Spot Market Time Series

Due to its non-storability, electricity must be produced at the same time that it is consumed, as a result prices are determined on an hourly basis and thus analysis becomes more challenging. Moreover, the seasonal fluctuations in demand and supply lead to a seasonal behavior of electricity spot prices. The purpose of this thesis is to seek and remove all causal effects from electricity spot prices and remain with pure prices for modeling purposes. To achieve this we use Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) for the visualization and the exploration of the data set and Time Series Decomposition method to estimate and extract the deterministic components from the series. To obtain the target series we use regression based on the background variables (water reservoir and temperature). The result obtained is three price series (for Sweden, Norway and System prices) with no apparent pattern.

Utilization of a Time Domain Simulator in the Technical and Economic Analysis of a Wind Turbine Electric Drive Train

The amount of installed wind power has been growing exponentially during the past ten years. As wind turbines have become a significant source of electrical energy, the interactions between the turbines and the electric power network need to be studied more thoroughly than before. Especially, the behavior of the turbines in fault situations is of prime importance; simply disconnecting all wind turbines from the network during a voltage drop is no longer acceptable, since this would contribute to a total network collapse. These requirements have been a contributor to the increased role of simulations in the study and design of the electric drive train of a wind turbine. When planning a wind power investment, the selection of the site and the turbine are crucial for the economic feasibility of the installation. Economic feasibility, on the other hand, is the factor that determines whether or not investment in wind power will continue, contributing to green electricity production and reduction of emissions. In the selection of the installation site and the turbine (siting and site matching), the properties of the electric drive train of the planned turbine have so far been generally not been taken into account. Additionally, although the loss minimization of some of the individual components of the drive train has been studied, the drive train as a whole has received less attention. Furthermore, as a wind turbine will typically operate at a power level lower than the nominal most of the time, efficiency analysis in the nominal operating point is not sufficient. This doctoral dissertation attempts to combine the two aforementioned areas of interest by studying the applicability of time domain simulations in the analysis of the economicfeasibility of a wind turbine. The utilization of a general-purpose time domain simulator, otherwise applied to the study of network interactions and control systems, in the economic analysis of the wind energy conversion system is studied. The main benefits of the simulation-based method over traditional methods based on analytic calculation of losses include the ability to reuse and recombine existing models, the ability to analyze interactions between the components and subsystems in the electric drive train (something which is impossible when considering different subsystems as independent blocks, as is commonly done in theanalytical calculation of efficiencies), the ability to analyze in a rather straightforward manner the effect of selections other than physical components, for example control algorithms, and the ability to verify assumptions of the effects of a particular design change on the efficiency of the whole system. Based on the work, it can be concluded that differences between two configurations can be seen in the economic performance with only minor modifications to the simulation models used in the network interaction and control method study. This eliminates the need ofdeveloping analytic expressions for losses and enables the study of the system as a whole instead of modeling it as series connection of independent blocks with no lossinterdependencies. Three example cases (site matching, component selection, control principle selection) are provided to illustrate the usage of the approach and analyze its performance.

Customer relationship management through life cycle analysis, case professional service firm in B2B market

The objective of this master’s thesis was to study how customer relationships should be assessed and categorized in order to support customer relationship management (CRM) in the context of business-to-business (B2B) and professional services. This sophisticated and complex market is utilizing possibilities of CRM only rarely and even then the focus is often on technology. The theoretical part considered first CRM from the value chain point of view and then discussed the cyclical nature of relationships. The case study focused on B2B professional service firm. The data was collected from company databases and included the sample of 90 customers. The research was conducted in three phases first studying the age, then the service type of relationships and finally executing the cluster analysis. The data was analysed by statistical analysis program SAS Enterprise Guide. The results indicate that there are great differences between developments of customer relationships. While some relationships are dynamically growing and changing, most of customers are remaining constant. This implies expectations and requirements of customers are similarly divergent and relationships should be managed accordingly.

Technical and economic analysis of replacing artificial lighting system to induction of photoperiod effect in begonia's seedlings in greenhouse

The type of artificial light used for inducing photoperiod effect in begonia's seedlings at greenhouse has fundamental importance in the growth and development of these plants and directly reflects in the electrical energy consumption used in this production process. The objective of this research was to analyze the technical and economic feasibility of replacing the current technology of artificial lighting used by the producers (incandescent lamps), by the technology of discharge lamps with the purpose of inducing photoperiod in a greenhouse. The analysis results indicate that the discharge lamp of 32 W Tubular Fluorescent discharge lamp was the one that presented the lower peak demand and lower average energy consumption of 85.01% compared to incandescent filament lamp of 100 W that is the technology of bigger consumption and currently used by the producer.

Technical and economic analysis of irrigation of asparagus bean in protected environment

This experiment was conducted in Lavras - state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, in a protected environment, and aims to estimate the irrigation depths that maximize productivity and economic returns in the cultivation of asparagus bean and analyze the economic viability of irrigation management. The experimental delineation was randomized blocks with five treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of five drip irrigation depths: 40, 70, 100, 130 and 160% of water replacement depth up to field capacity. The depths of water that maximize productivity and economic returns were obtained from the regression model adjusted to productivity data, cost of product relations and water cost. The economic viability was achieved on the benefit/cost ratio basis. The depth with the maximum economic return was estimated in 434.4mm, with a productivity of 35,160.6kg ha-1, which is economically viable for the cultivation of asparagus bean, with a expected profitability of R$ 1.70 for every real invested.

Technical and economic indicators of the yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with underground water supply

The research aimed to quantify technical and economic indicators of yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with fractions of irrigation with underground source of water, to generate information that helps farmers in decision making on the implementation of investment in irrigated fruit growing (yellow passion fruit). For this purpose, we used the passion fruit crop irrigated with Microjet type irrigation system, with conducting system in simple espaliers. The treatments consisted of five hours of application of the depth of water required by the crop with irrigation frequency of two days. The results showed that the highest yield (16660kg ha-1) was obtained with the fractionation of irrigation twice a day (50% to 7h and 50% to 21h30), which provided an increase in productivity of 54%, demonstrating the financial viability and being highly profitable to the interest rate of 2% per year, with low sensitivity of financial risk to real interest rates above the prevailing market.

Technical-economic analysis of different lighting systems for broiler poultry

ABSTRACT Broiler poultry is highly dependent on artificial lightening. Power consumption costs of artificial lighting systems is the second largest expense related to broiler industry, second only to feed expenses. Therefore, the current study focused to analyze technical and economic feasibility of replacing incandescent lamps already used in aviaries with other lamp types. Costs related to power consumption, implementation and maintenance of the lighting systems were evaluated with the aid of financial mathematics using net present value, return over investment and payback. Systems composed of six lamp types were analyzed in two different configurations to meet the minimum illuminance of 5 and 20 lux and for use in conventional sheds and dark house. The lamps tested were incandescent (LI) of 100 W, compact fluorescent (CFL) of 34 W, mixed (ML) 160 W sodium vapor (SVL) of 70 W, tubular fluorescent T8 (TFL T8) of 40 W and tubular fluorescent T5 (TFL T5) of 28 W. For the systems tested, it was found that the tubular fluorescent lamps T8 and T5 showed the best results of technical and economic feasibility.

The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.