Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis

One of the cornerstone of financial anomalies is that there exists money making opportunities. Shiller’s excess volatility theory is re-investigated from the perspective of a trading strategy where the present value is computed using a series of simple econometric models to forecast the present value. The results show that the excess volatility may not be exploited given the data available until time t. However, when learning is introduced empirically, the simple trading strategy may offer profits, but which are likely to disappear once transaction costs are considered.

'Modern' Phillips Curves and the Implications For The Statistical Process of Inflation

'Modern' theories of the Phillips curve imply that inflation is an integrated, or near integrated process. This paper explains this implication and why these 'modern' theories are logically inconsistent with what is commonly known about the statistical process of inflation.

Testing low-altitude infrared digital photography from a mini-UAV to retrieve information for biological conservation

Satellite remote sensing imagery is used for forestry, conservation and environmental applications, but insufficient spatial resolution, and, in particular, unavailability of images at the precise timing required for a given application, often prevent achieving a fully operational stage. Airborne remote sensing has the advantage of custom-tuned sensors, resolution and timing, but its price prevents using it as a routine technique for the mentioned fields. Some Unmanned Aerial Vehicles might provide a “third way” solution as low-cost techniques for acquiring remotely sensed information, under close control of the end-user, albeit at the expense of lower quality instrumentation and instability. This report evaluates a light remote sensing system based on a remotely-controlled mini-UAV (ATMOS-3) equipped with a color infra-red camera (VEGCAM-1) designed and operated by CATUAV. We conducted a testing mission over a Mediterranean landscape dominated by an evergreen woodland of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) and (Holm) oak (Quercus ilex) in the Montseny National Park (Catalonia, NE Spain). We took advantage of state-of-the-art ortho-rectified digital aerial imagery (acquired by the Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya over the area during the previous year) and used it as quality reference. In particular, we paid attention to: 1) Operationality of flight and image acquisition according to a previously defined plan; 2) Radiometric and geometric quality of the images; and 3) Operational use of the images in the context of applications. We conclude that the system has achieved an operational stage regarding flight activities, although with meteorological limits set by wind speed and turbulence. Appropriate landing areas can be sometimes limiting also, but the system is able to land on small and relatively rough terrains such as patches of grassland or short matorral, and we have operated the UAV as far as 7 km from the control unit. Radiometric quality is sufficient for interactive analysis, but probably insufficient for automated processing. A forthcoming camera is supposed to greatly improve radiometric quality and consistency. Conventional GPS positioning through time synchronization provides coarse orientation of the images, with no roll information.

Still in the Era of Area Studies? Political-Scientific Perspectives on European Competition Policy in the 2000s

This note reviews the political-scientific literature on European competition policy (ECP) in the 2000s. Based on a data set extracted from four well-known journals, and using an upfront methodology and explicit criteria, it analyzes the literature both quantitatively and qualitatively. On the quantitative side, it shows that, although a few sub-policy areas are still neglected, ECP is not the under-researched policy it used to be. On the qualitative side, the literature has greatly improved since the 1990s: Almost all articles now present a clear research question, and most advance specific theoretical claims/hypotheses. Yet, improvements can be made on research design, statistical testing, and, above all, state-of-the-art theorizing (e.g. in the game-theoretical treatment of delegation problems). Indeed, it is paradoxical that ECP specialists do not pay more attention to theoretical questions which are so central to the actual policy area they study.

Maximal Physiological Parameters during Partial Body-Weight Support Treadmill Testing.

PURPOSE: This study investigated maximal cardiometabolic response while running in a lower body positive pressure treadmill (antigravity treadmill (AG)), which reduces body weight (BW) and impact. The AG is used in rehabilitation of injuries but could have potential for high-speed running, if workload is maximally elevated. METHODS: Fourteen trained (nine male) runners (age 27 ± 5 yr; 10-km personal best, 38.1 ± 1.1 min) completed a treadmill incremental test (CON) to measure aerobic capacity and heart rate (V˙O2max and HRmax). They completed four identical tests (48 h apart, randomized order) on the AG at BW of 100%, 95%, 90%, and 85% (AG100 to AG85). Stride length and rate were measured at peak velocities (Vpeak). RESULTS: V˙O2max (mL·kg·min) was similar across all conditions (men: CON = 66.6 (3.0), AG100 = 65.6 (3.8), AG95 = 65.0 (5.4), AG90 = 65.6 (4.5), and AG85 = 65.0 (4.8); women: CON = 63.0 (4.6), AG100 = 61.4 (4.3), AG95 = 60.7 (4.8), AG90 = 61.4 (3.3), and AG85 = 62.8 (3.9)). Similar results were found for HRmax, except for AG85 in men and AG100 and AG90 in women, which were lower than CON. Vpeak (km·h) in men was 19.7 (0.9) in CON, which was lower than every other condition: AG100 = 21.0 (1.9) (P < 0.05), AG95 = 21.4 (1.8) (P < 0.01), AG90 = 22.3 (2.1) (P < 0.01), and AG85 = 22.6 (1.6) (P < 0.001). In women, Vpeak (km·h) was similar between CON (17.8 (1.1) ) and AG100 (19.3 (1.0)) but higher at AG95 = 19.5 (0.4) (P < 0.05), AG90 = 19.5 (0.8) (P < 0.05), and AG85 = 21.2 (0.9) (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The AG can be used at maximal exercise intensities at BW of 85% to 95%, reaching faster running speeds than normally feasible. The AG could be used for overspeed running programs at the highest metabolic response levels.

Revisiting the diacylglycerol-induced insulin resistance hypothesis.

Obesity is associated with skeletal muscle insulin resistance, which is a crucial step in the development of type 2 diabetes. Among the mechanisms by which obesity may lead to insulin resistance, lipotoxicity is one of the hypotheses being explored; others include inflammation or the oxidative stress hypotheses. This review focuses on the role of diacylglycerols (DAG), a family of lipid metabolites implicated in the pathogenesis of lipotoxicity and insulin resistance. While recent studies report contradictory results in humans with regard to the importance of DAG-induced insulin resistance in skeletal muscle, other current literature highlight a potential role for DAG as signalling molecules. This review will discuss possible hypotheses explaining these contradictory results and the need to explore further the role of DAG in human metabolism.

Use of Treponema pallidum PCR in Testing of Ulcers for Diagnosis of Primary Syphilis(1.).

Treponema pallidum PCR (Tp-PCR) has been noted as a valid method for diagnosing syphilis. We compared Tp-PCR to a combination of darkfield microscopy (DFM), the reference method, and serologic testing in a cohort of 273 patients from France and Switzerland and found the diagnostic accuracy of Tp-PCR was higher than that for DFM.

South American monkeys in the development and testing of malarial vaccines - a review

South American Aoutus an d Saimiri monkeys, which are susceptible to infection with human malarias, have been used to develop models for the testing of huma malaria vaccines. Studies indicate that blood-stage and sporozoite vaccines can be tested in these monkeys using appropriate strains of parasites.

Development of an optimized methodology for tensile testing of carbon steels in hydrogen environment

The study was performed at OCAS, the Steel Research Centre of ArcelorMittal for the Industry market. The major aim of this research was to obtain an optimized tensile testing methodology with in-situ H-charging to reveal the hydrogen embrittlement in various high strength steels. The second aim of this study has been the mechanical characterization of the hydrogen effect on hight strength carbon steels with varying microstructure, i.e. ferrite-martensite and ferrite-bainite grades. The optimal parameters for H-charging - which influence the tensile test results (sample geometry type of electrolyte, charging methods effect of steel type, etc.) - were defined and applied to Slow Strain Rate testing, Incremental Step Loading and Constant Load Testing. To better understand the initiation and propagation of cracks during tensile testing with in-situ H-charging, and to make the correlation with crystallographic orientation, some materials have been analyzed in the SEM in combination with the EBSD technique. The introduction of a notch on the tensile samples permits to reach a significantly improved reproducibility of the results. Comparing the various steel grades reveals that Dual Phase (ferrite-martensite) steels are more sensitive to hydrogen induced cracking than the FB (ferritic-bainitic) ones. This higher sensitivity to hydrogen was found back in the reduced failure times, increased creep rates and enhanced crack initiation (SEM) for the Dual Phase steels in comparison with the FB steels.