A model of osteoporosis impact in Switzerland 2000-2020

The aim of our study was to develop a modeling framework suitable to quantify the incidence, absolute number and economic impact of osteoporosis-attributable hip, vertebral and distal forearm fractures, with a particular focus on change over time, and with application to the situation in Switzerland from 2000 to 2020. A Markov process model was developed and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. A demographic scenario provided by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and various Swiss and international data sources were used as model inputs. Demographic and epidemiologic input parameters were reproduced correctly, confirming the internal validity of the model. The proportion of the Swiss population aged 50 years or over will rise from 33.3% in 2000 to 41.3% in 2020. At the total population level, osteoporosis-attributable incidence will rise from 1.16 to 1.54 per 1,000 person-years in the case of hip fracture, from 3.28 to 4.18 per 1,000 person-years in the case of radiographic vertebral fracture, and from 0.59 to 0.70 per 1,000 person-years in the case of distal forearm fracture. Osteoporosis-attributable hip fracture numbers will rise from 8,375 to 11,353, vertebral fracture numbers will rise from 23,584 to 30,883, and distal forearm fracture numbers will rise from 4,209 to 5,186. Population-level osteoporosis-related direct medical inpatient costs per year will rise from 713.4 million Swiss francs (CHF) to CHF946.2 million. These figures correspond to 1.6% and 2.2% of Swiss health care expenditures in 2000. The modeling framework described can be applied to a wide variety of settings. It can be used to assess the impact of new prevention, diagnostic and treatment strategies. In Switzerland incidences of osteoporotic hip, vertebral and distal forearm fracture will rise by 33%, 27%, and 19%, respectively, between 2000 and 2020, if current prevention and treatment patterns are maintained. Corresponding absolute fracture numbers will rise by 36%, 31%, and 23%. Related direct medical inpatient costs are predicted to increase by 33%; however, this estimate is subject to uncertainty due to limited availability of input data.

A Physically Based Transmission Model of Rough Surfaces

Transparent and translucent objects involve both light reflection and transmission at surfaces. This paper presents a physically based transmission model of rough surface. The surface is assumed to be locally smooth, and statistical techniques is applied to calculate light transmission through a local illumination area. We have obtained an analytical expression for single scattering. The analytical model has been compared to our Monte Carlo simulations as well as to the previous simulations, and good agreements have been achieved. The presented model has potential applications for realistic rendering of transparent and translucent objects.

Chinese Internet language: A sociolinguistic analysis of adaptations of the Chinese writing system

This paper examines the adaptations of the writing system in Internet language in mainland China from a sociolinguistic perspective. A comparison is also made of the adaptations in mainland China with those that Su (2003) found in Taiwan. In Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC), writing systems are often adapted to compensate for their inherent inadequacies (such as difficulty in input). Su (2003) investigates the creative uses of the writing system on the electronic bulletin boards (BBS) of two college student organizations in Taipei, Taiwan, and identifies four popular and creative uses of the Chinese writing system: stylized English, stylized Taiwanese-accented Mandarin, stylized Taiwanese, and the recycling of a transliteration alphabet used in elementary education. According to Coupland (2001; cited in Su 2003), stylization is “the knowing deployment of culturally familiar styles and identities that are marked as deviating from those predictably associated with the current speaking context”. Within this framework and drawing on the data in previous publications on Internet language and online sources, this study identifies five types of adaptations in mainland China’s Internet language: stylized Mandarin (e.g., 漂漂 piāopiāo for 漂亮 ‘beautiful’), stylized dialect-accented Mandarin (e.g., 灰常 huīcháng for 非常 ‘very much’), stylized English (e.g., 伊妹儿 yīmèier for ‘email’), stylized initials (e.g., bt 变态 biàntài for ‘abnormal’; pk, short form for ‘player kill’), and stylized numbers (e.g., 9494 jiùshi jiùshi 就是就是 ‘that is it’). The Internet community is composed of highly mobile individuals and thus forms a weak-tie social network. According to Milroy and Milroy (1992), a social network with weak ties is often where language innovation takes place. Adaptations of the Chinese writing system in Internet language provide interesting evidence for the innovations within a weak-tie social network. Our comparison of adaptations in mainland China and Taiwan shows that, in maximizing the effectiveness and functionality of their communication, participants of Internet communication are confronted with different language resources and situations, including differences in Romanization systems, English proficiency level, and attitudes towards English usage. As argued by Milroy and Milroy (1992), a weak-tie social network model can bridge the social class and social network. In the Internet community, the degree of diversity of the stylized linguistic varieties indexes the virtual and/or social status of its participants: the more diversified one’s Internet language is, the higher is his/her virtual and/or social status.

The (2 + 1)-d U (1) quantum link model masquerading as deconfined criticality

The (2 + 1)-d U(1) quantum link model is a gauge theory, amenable to quantum simulation, with a spontaneously broken SO(2) symmetry emerging at a quantum phase transition. Its low-energy physics is described by a (2 + 1)-d RP(1) effective field theory, perturbed by an SO(2) breaking operator, which prevents the interpretation of the emergent pseudo-Goldstone boson as a dual photon. At the quantum phase transition, the model mimics some features of deconfined quantum criticality, but remains linearly confining. Deconfinement only sets in at high temperature.

Using state variables to model the response of tumour cells to radiation and heat: a novel multi-hit-repair approach

In order to overcome the limitations of the linear-quadratic model and include synergistic effects of heat and radiation, a novel radiobiological model is proposed. The model is based on a chain of cell populations which are characterized by the number of radiation induced damages (hits). Cells can shift downward along the chain by collecting hits and upward by a repair process. The repair process is governed by a repair probability which depends upon state variables used for a simplistic description of the impact of heat and radiation upon repair proteins. Based on the parameters used, populations up to 4-5 hits are relevant for the calculation of the survival. The model describes intuitively the mathematical behaviour of apoptotic and nonapoptotic cell death. Linear-quadratic-linear behaviour of the logarithmic cell survival, fractionation, and (with one exception) the dose rate dependencies are described correctly. The model covers the time gap dependence of the synergistic cell killing due to combined application of heat and radiation, but further validation of the proposed approach based on experimental data is needed. However, the model offers a work bench for testing different biological concepts of damage induction, repair, and statistical approaches for calculating the variables of state.

Strategies to increase the use and approval of gender-fair language

When masculine forms are used to refer to men and women, this causes male-biased cognitive representations and behavioral consequences, as numerous studies have shown. This effect can be avoided or reduced with the help of gender-fair language. In this talk, we will present different approaches that aim at influencing people’s use of and attitudes towards gender-fair language. Firstly, we tested the influence of gender-fair input on people’s own use of gender-fair language. Based on Irmen and Linner’s (2005) adaptation of the scenario mapping and focus approach (Sanford & Garrod, 1998), we found that after reading a text with gender-fair forms women produced more gender-fair forms than women who read gender-neutral texts or texts containing masculine generics. Men were not affected. Secondly, we examined reactions to arguments which followed the Elaboration Likelihood Model (Petty &Cacioppo, 1986). We assumed that strong pros and cons would be more effective than weak arguments or control statements. The results indicated that strong pros could convince some, but not all participants, suggesting a complex interplay of diverse factors in reaction to attempts at persuasion. The influence of people’s initial characteristics will be discussed. Currently, we are investigating how self-generated refutations, in addition to arguments, may influence initial attitudes. Based on the resistance appraisal hypothesis (Tormala, 2008), we assume that individuals are encouraged in their initial attitude if they manage to refute strong counter-arguments. The results of our studies will be discussed regarding their practical implications.

Temporal lobe white matter asymmetry and language laterality in epilepsy patients.

Recent studies using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) have advanced our knowledge of the organization of white matter subserving language function. It remains unclear, however, how DTI may be used to predict accurately a key feature of language organization: its asymmetric representation in one cerebral hemisphere. In this study of epilepsy patients with unambiguous lateralization on Wada testing (19 left and 4 right lateralized subjects; no bilateral subjects), the predictive value of DTI for classifying the dominant hemisphere for language was assessed relative to the existing standard-the intra-carotid Amytal (Wada) procedure. Our specific hypothesis is that language laterality in both unilateral left- and right-hemisphere language dominant subjects may be predicted by hemispheric asymmetry in the relative density of three white matter pathways terminating in the temporal lobe implicated in different aspects of language function: the arcuate (AF), uncinate (UF), and inferior longitudinal fasciculi (ILF). Laterality indices computed from asymmetry of high anisotropy AF pathways, but not the other pathways, classified the majority (19 of 23) of patients using the Wada results as the standard. A logistic regression model incorporating information from DTI of the AF, fMRI activity in Broca's area, and handedness was able to classify 22 of 23 (95.6%) patients correctly according to their Wada score. We conclude that evaluation of highly anisotropic components of the AF alone has significant predictive power for determining language laterality, and that this markedly asymmetric distribution in the dominant hemisphere may reflect enhanced connectivity between frontal and temporal sites to support fluent language processes. Given the small sample reported in this preliminary study, future research should assess this method on a larger group of patients, including subjects with bi-hemispheric dominance.

Detailed analysis of sequence changes occurring during vlsE antigenic variation in the mouse model of Borrelia burgdorferi infection.

Lyme disease Borrelia can infect humans and animals for months to years, despite the presence of an active host immune response. The vls antigenic variation system, which expresses the surface-exposed lipoprotein VlsE, plays a major role in B. burgdorferi immune evasion. Gene conversion between vls silent cassettes and the vlsE expression site occurs at high frequency during mammalian infection, resulting in sequence variation in the VlsE product. In this study, we examined vlsE sequence variation in B. burgdorferi B31 during mouse infection by analyzing 1,399 clones isolated from bladder, heart, joint, ear, and skin tissues of mice infected for 4 to 365 days. The median number of codon changes increased progressively in C3H/HeN mice from 4 to 28 days post infection, and no clones retained the parental vlsE sequence at 28 days. In contrast, the decrease in the number of clones with the parental vlsE sequence and the increase in the number of sequence changes occurred more gradually in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice. Clones containing a stop codon were isolated, indicating that continuous expression of full-length VlsE is not required for survival in vivo; also, these clones continued to undergo vlsE recombination. Analysis of clones with apparent single recombination events indicated that recombinations into vlsE are nonselective with regard to the silent cassette utilized, as well as the length and location of the recombination event. Sequence changes as small as one base pair were common. Fifteen percent of recovered vlsE variants contained "template-independent" sequence changes, which clustered in the variable regions of vlsE. We hypothesize that the increased frequency and complexity of vlsE sequence changes observed in clones recovered from immunocompetent mice (as compared with SCID mice) is due to rapid clearance of relatively invariant clones by variable region-specific anti-VlsE antibody responses.

Development of a Bayesian Joint Logistic Model to Better Study the Association between Haplotypes and Disease

In 2011, there will be an estimated 1,596,670 new cancer cases and 571,950 cancer-related deaths in the US. With the ever-increasing applications of cancer genetics in epidemiology, there is great potential to identify genetic risk factors that would help identify individuals with increased genetic susceptibility to cancer, which could be used to develop interventions or targeted therapies that could hopefully reduce cancer risk and mortality. In this dissertation, I propose to develop a new statistical method to evaluate the role of haplotypes in cancer susceptibility and development. This model will be flexible enough to handle not only haplotypes of any size, but also a variety of covariates. I will then apply this method to three cancer-related data sets (Hodgkin Disease, Glioma, and Lung Cancer). I hypothesize that there is substantial improvement in the estimation of association between haplotypes and disease, with the use of a Bayesian mathematical method to infer haplotypes that uses prior information from known genetics sources. Analysis based on haplotypes using information from publically available genetic sources generally show increased odds ratios and smaller p-values in both the Hodgkin, Glioma, and Lung data sets. For instance, the Bayesian Joint Logistic Model (BJLM) inferred haplotype TC had a substantially higher estimated effect size (OR=12.16, 95% CI = 2.47-90.1 vs. 9.24, 95% CI = 1.81-47.2) and more significant p-value (0.00044 vs. 0.008) for Hodgkin Disease compared to a traditional logistic regression approach. Also, the effect sizes of haplotypes modeled with recessive genetic effects were higher (and had more significant p-values) when analyzed with the BJLM. Full genetic models with haplotype information developed with the BJLM resulted in significantly higher discriminatory power and a significantly higher Net Reclassification Index compared to those developed with haplo.stats for lung cancer. Future analysis for this work could be to incorporate the 1000 Genomes project, which offers a larger selection of SNPs can be incorporated into the information from known genetic sources as well. Other future analysis include testing non-binary outcomes, like the levels of biomarkers that are present in lung cancer (NNK), and extending this analysis to full GWAS studies.

Statistical characterization and development of summary measures of non-normal distributions of nuclear morphometry data from prostate cancer cells for use as prognostic indicators

Nuclear morphometry (NM) uses image analysis to measure features of the cell nucleus which are classified as: bulk properties, shape or form, and DNA distribution. Studies have used these measurements as diagnostic and prognostic indicators of disease with inconclusive results. The distributional properties of these variables have not been systematically investigated although much of the medical data exhibit nonnormal distributions. Measurements are done on several hundred cells per patient so summary measurements reflecting the underlying distribution are needed.^ Distributional characteristics of 34 NM variables from prostate cancer cells were investigated using graphical and analytical techniques. Cells per sample ranged from 52 to 458. A small sample of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), representing non-cancer cells, was used for general comparison with the cancer cells.^ Data transformations such as log, square root and 1/x did not yield normality as measured by the Shapiro-Wilks test for normality. A modulus transformation, used for distributions having abnormal kurtosis values, also did not produce normality.^ Kernel density histograms of the 34 variables exhibited non-normality and 18 variables also exhibited bimodality. A bimodality coefficient was calculated and 3 variables: DNA concentration, shape and elongation, showed the strongest evidence of bimodality and were studied further.^ Two analytical approaches were used to obtain a summary measure for each variable for each patient: cluster analysis to determine significant clusters and a mixture model analysis using a two component model having a Gaussian distribution with equal variances. The mixture component parameters were used to bootstrap the log likelihood ratio to determine the significant number of components, 1 or 2. These summary measures were used as predictors of disease severity in several proportional odds logistic regression models. The disease severity scale had 5 levels and was constructed of 3 components: extracapsulary penetration (ECP), lymph node involvement (LN+) and seminal vesicle involvement (SV+) which represent surrogate measures of prognosis. The summary measures were not strong predictors of disease severity. There was some indication from the mixture model results that there were changes in mean levels and proportions of the components in the lower severity levels. ^

Image-based vs. mesh-based statistical appearance models of the human femur: Implications for finite element simulations.

Statistical appearance models have recently been introduced in bone mechanics to investigate bone geometry and mechanical properties in population studies. The establishment of accurate anatomical correspondences is a critical aspect for the construction of reliable models. Depending on the representation of a bone as an image or a mesh, correspondences are detected using image registration or mesh morphing. The objective of this study was to compare image-based and mesh-based statistical appearance models of the femur for finite element (FE) simulations. To this aim, (i) we compared correspondence detection methods on bone surface and in bone volume; (ii) we created an image-based and a mesh-based statistical appearance models from 130 images, which we validated using compactness, representation and generalization, and we analyzed the FE results on 50 recreated bones vs. original bones; (iii) we created 1000 new instances, and we compared the quality of the FE meshes. Results showed that the image-based approach was more accurate in volume correspondence detection and quality of FE meshes, whereas the mesh-based approach was more accurate for surface correspondence detection and model compactness. Based on our results, we recommend the use of image-based statistical appearance models for FE simulations of the femur.

Pangea: A Workbench for Statically Analyzing Multi-Language Software Corpora

Software corpora facilitate reproducibility of analyses, however, static analysis for an entire corpus still requires considerable effort, often duplicated unnecessarily by multiple users. Moreover, most corpora are designed for single languages increasing the effort for cross-language analysis. To address these aspects we propose Pangea, an infrastructure allowing fast development of static analyses on multi-language corpora. Pangea uses language-independent meta-models stored as object model snapshots that can be directly loaded into memory and queried without any parsing overhead. To reduce the effort of performing static analyses, Pangea provides out-of-the box support for: creating and refining analyses in a dedicated environment, deploying an analysis on an entire corpus, using a runner that supports parallel execution, and exporting results in various formats. In this tool demonstration we introduce Pangea and provide several usage scenarios that illustrate how it reduces the cost of analysis.

Multi-Environment Model Estimation for Motility Analysis of Caernorhabditis elegans

The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a well-known model organism used to investigate fundamental questions in biology. Motility assays of this small roundworm are designed to study the relationships between genes and behavior. Commonly, motility analysis is used to classify nematode movements and characterize them quantitatively. Over the past years, C. elegans' motility has been studied across a wide range of environments, including crawling on substrates, swimming in fluids, and locomoting through microfluidic substrates. However, each environment often requires customized image processing tools relying on heuristic parameter tuning. In the present study, we propose a novel Multi-Environment Model Estimation (MEME) framework for automated image segmentation that is versatile across various environments. The MEME platform is constructed around the concept of Mixture of Gaussian (MOG) models, where statistical models for both the background environment and the nematode appearance are explicitly learned and used to accurately segment a target nematode. Our method is designed to simplify the burden often imposed on users; here, only a single image which includes a nematode in its environment must be provided for model learning. In addition, our platform enables the extraction of nematode ‘skeletons’ for straightforward motility quantification. We test our algorithm on various locomotive environments and compare performances with an intensity-based thresholding method. Overall, MEME outperforms the threshold-based approach for the overwhelming majority of cases examined. Ultimately, MEME provides researchers with an attractive platform for C. elegans' segmentation and ‘skeletonizing’ across a wide range of motility assays.

Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model

The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.

Beyond sexist beliefs: How do people decide to use gender-inclusive language?

When people use generic masculine language instead of more gender-inclusive forms, they communicate gender stereotypes and sometimes exclusion of women from certain social roles. Past research related gender-inclusive language use to sexist beliefs and attitudes. Given that this aspect of language use may be transparent to users, it is unclear whether people explicitly act on these beliefs when using gender-exclusive language forms or whether these are more implicit, habitual patterns. In two studies with German-speaking participants, we showed that spontaneous use of gender-inclusive personal nouns is guided by explicitly favorable intentions as well as habitual processes involving past use of such language. Further indicating the joint influence of deliberate and habitual processes, Study 2 revealed that language-use intentions are embedded in explicit sexist ideologies. As anticipated in our decision-making model, the effects of sexist beliefs on language emerged through deliberate mechanisms involving attitudes and intentions.