Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Childhood adversities as risk factors for onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, but the precise effect of childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour (suicide ideation, plans and attempts) are not well understood. Aims To examine the associations between childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour across 21 countries worldwide. Method Respondents from nationally representative samples (n = 55 299) were interviewed regarding childhood adversities that occurred before the age of 18 years and lifetime suicidal behaviour. Results Childhood adversities were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt and ideation in both bivariate and multivariate models (odds ratio range 1.2-5.7). The risk increased with the number of adversities experienced, but at a decreasing rate. Sexual and physical abuse were consistently the strongest risk factors for both the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour, especially during adolescence. Associations remained similar after additional adjustment for respondents` lifetime mental disorder status. Conclusions Childhood adversities (especially intrusive or aggressive adversities) are powerful predictors of the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviours.

QCD thermal phase transition in the presence of a small chemical potential

We propose a new method to investigate the thermal properties of QCD with a small quark chemical potential mu. Derivatives of quark and gluonic observables with respect to mu are computed at mu=0 for two flavors of p4 improved staggered fermions with ma=0.1,0.2 on a 16(3)x4 lattice, and used to calculate the leading order Taylor expansion in mu of the location of the pseudocritical point about mu=0. This expansion should be well behaved for the small values of mu(q)/T(c)similar to0.1 relevant for BNL RHIC phenomenology, and predicts a critical curve T-c(mu) in reasonable agreement with estimates obtained using exact reweighting. In addition, we contrast the case of isoscalar and isovector chemical potentials, quantify the effect of munot equal0 on the equation of state, and comment on the complex phase of the fermion determinant in QCD with munot equal0.

Application of the Williams-Landel-Ferry model to the viscosity-temperature relationship of Australian honeys

The rheological behaviour of nine unprocessed Australian honeys was investigated for the applicability of the Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) model. The viscosity of the honeys was obtained over a range of shear rates (0.01-40 s(-1)) from 2degrees to 40 degreesC, and all the honeys exhibited Newtonian behaviour with viscosity reducing as the temperature was increased. The honeys with high moisture were of lower viscosity, The glass transition temperatures of the honeys, as measured with a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), ranged from -40degrees to -46 degreesC, and four models (WLF. Arrhenius, Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher (VTF), and power-law) were investigated to describe the temperature dependence of the viscosity. The WLF was the most suitable and the correlation coefficient averaged 0.999 +/- 0.0013 as against 0.996 +/- 0.0042 for the Arrhenius model while the mean relative deviation modulus was 0-12% for the WLF model and 10-40% for the Arrhenius one. With the universal values for the WLF constants, the temperature dependence of the viscosity was badly predicted. From non-linear regression analysis, the constants of the WLF models for the honeys were obtained (C-1 = 13.7-21.1: C-2 = 55.9-118.7) and are different from the universal values. These WLF constants will be valuable for adequate modeling of the rheology of the honeys, and they can be used to assess the temperature sensitivity of the honeys. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

N-aminopyrroledione-hydrazonoketene-pyrazolium oxide-pyrazolone rearrangements and pyrazolone tautomerism

Flash vacuum thermolysis (FVT) of 1-(dimethylamino)pyrrole-2,3-diones 5 causes extrusion of CO with formation of transient hydrazonoketenes 7. The transient ketenes 7 are observable in the form of weak bands at 2130 (7a) or 2115 cm(-1) (7b) in the Ar matrix IR spectra resulting from either FVT or photolysis of either 5 or 1,1- dimethylpyrazolium-5- oxides 8, and these absorptions are in excellent agreement with B3LYP/6-31G* frequency calculations. Under FVT conditions the ketenes 7 cyclize to pyrazolium oxides 8, which undergo 1,4-migration of a methyl group to yield 1,4-dimethyl-3-phenylpyrazole-5(4H)-one 9a and 1,4,4-trimethyl-3-phenylpyrazole-5(4H)-one 9b. All three tautomers of 9a have been characterized, viz. the CH form 9a (most stable form in the gas phase, the solid state and solvents of low polarity), the OH form 9a' (metastable solid at room temperature) and the NH form 9a (stable in aprotic dipolar solvents). The isomeric 1,4-dimethyl-5-phenylpyrazole-3(2H)-one 12 tautomerizes to the 3-hydroxypyrazole 12'. The crystal structure of the hydrochloride 14 of 9a'/9a is reported, representing the first structurally characterised example of a protonated 5-hydroxypyrazole.

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Equilibrium self-assembly of colloids with distinct interaction sites: Thermodynamics, percolation, and cluster distribution functions

We calculate the equilibrium thermodynamic properties, percolation threshold, and cluster distribution functions for a model of associating colloids, which consists of hard spherical particles having on their surfaces three short-ranged attractive sites (sticky spots) of two different types, A and B. The thermodynamic properties are calculated using Wertheim's perturbation theory of associating fluids. This also allows us to find the onset of self-assembly, which can be quantified by the maxima of the specific heat at constant volume. The percolation threshold is derived, under the no-loop assumption, for the correlated bond model: In all cases it is two percolated phases that become identical at a critical point, when one exists. Finally, the cluster size distributions are calculated by mapping the model onto an effective model, characterized by a-state-dependent-functionality (f) over bar and unique bonding probability (p) over bar. The mapping is based on the asymptotic limit of the cluster distributions functions of the generic model and the effective parameters are defined through the requirement that the equilibrium cluster distributions of the true and effective models have the same number-averaged and weight-averaged sizes at all densities and temperatures. We also study the model numerically in the case where BB interactions are missing. In this limit, AB bonds either provide branching between A-chains (Y-junctions) if epsilon(AB)/epsilon(AA) is small, or drive the formation of a hyperbranched polymer if epsilon(AB)/epsilon(AA) is large. We find that the theoretical predictions describe quite accurately the numerical data, especially in the region where Y-junctions are present. There is fairly good agreement between theoretical and numerical results both for the thermodynamic (number of bonds and phase coexistence) and the connectivity properties of the model (cluster size distributions and percolation locus).

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Filling and wetting transitions of nematic liquid crystals on sinusoidal substrates

Close to sinusoidal substrates, simple fluids may undergo a filling transition, in which the fluid passes from a dry to a filled state, where the interface remains unbent but bound to the substrate. Increasing the surface field, the interface unbinds and a wetting transition occurs. We show that this double-transition sequence may be strongly modified in the case of ordered fluids, such as nematic liquid crystals. Depending on the preferred orientation of the nematic molecules at the structured substrate and at the isotropic-nematic interface, the filling transition may not exist, and the fluid passes directly from a dry to a complete-wet state, with the interface far from the substrate. More interestingly, in other situations, the complete wetting transition may be prevented, and the fluid passes from a dry to a filled state, and remains in this configuration, with the interface always attached to the substrate, even for very large surface fields. Both transitions are observed only for a same substrate in a narrow range of amplitudes.

Molybdenum – and tungsten(II) monometallic 3-(2-pyridyl)pyrazole and bimetallic 3-(2-pyridyl)pyrazolate complexes

Molybdenum and tungsten complexes containing the pypzH (3-(2-pyridyl)pyrazole) ligand as a chelating bidentate are prepared: [Mo(CO)(4)(pypzH)], cis-[MoBr(eta(3)-allyl)(CO)(2)(pypzH)], cis-[MoCl(eta(3)-methallyl)(CO)(2)(pypzH)], [MI2(CO)(3)(pypzH)] (M = Mo, W) from [Mo(CO)(4)(NBD)] or the adequate bis(acetonitrile) complexes. The deprotonation of the molybdenum allyl or methallyl complexes affords the bimetallic complexes [cis-{Mo(eta(3)-allyl)(CO)(2)(mu(2)-pypz)}](2) or [cis-{Mo(eta(3)-methallyl)(CO)(2)(mu(2)-pypz)}](2) (mu(2)-pypz = mu(2)-3-(2-pyridyl-kappa N-1) pyrazolate-2 kappa N-1). The allyl complex was subjected to an electrochemical study, which shows a marked connection between both metallic centres through the bridging pyridylpyrazolates.

Theory and phenomenology of two-higgs-doublet models

We discuss theoretical and phenomenological aspects of two-Higgs-doublet extensions of the Standard Model. In general, these extensions have scalar mediated flavour changing neutral currents which are strongly constrained by experiment. Various strategies are discussed to control these flavour changing scalar currents and their phenomenological consequences are analysed. In particular, scenarios with natural flavour conservation are investigated, including the so-called type I and type II models as well as lepton-specific and inert models. Type III models are then discussed, where scalar flavour changing neutral currents are present at tree level, but are suppressed by either a specific ansatz for the Yukawa couplings or by the introduction of family symmetries leading to a natural suppression mechanism. We also consider the phenomenology of charged scalars in these models. Next we turn to the role of symmetries in the scalar sector. We discuss the six symmetry-constrained scalar potentials and their extension into the fermion sector. The vacuum structure of the scalar potential is analysed, including a study of the vacuum stability conditions on the potential and the renormalization-group improvement of these conditions is also presented. The stability of the tree level minimum of the scalar potential in connection with electric charge conservation and its behaviour under CP is analysed. The question of CP violation is addressed in detail, including the cases of explicit CP violation and spontaneous CP violation. We present a detailed study of weak basis invariants which are odd under CP. These invariants allow for the possibility of studying the CP properties of any two-Higgs-doublet model in an arbitrary Higgs basis. A careful study of spontaneous CP violation is presented, including an analysis of the conditions which have to be satisfied in order for a vacuum to violate CP. We present minimal models of CP violation where the vacuum phase is sufficient to generate a complex CKM matrix, which is at present a requirement for any realistic model of spontaneous CP violation.

Project, modelling and simulation of air stripping columns for the treatment of groundwater contaminated with volatile organic compounds

Volatile organic compounds are a common source of groundwater contamination that can be easily removed by air stripping in columns with random packing and using a counter-current flow between the phases. This work proposes a new methodology for the column design for any particular type of packing and contaminant avoiding the necessity of a pre-defined diameter used in the classical approach. It also renders unnecessary the employment of the graphical Eckert generalized correlation for pressure drop estimates. The hydraulic features are previously chosen as a project criterion and only afterwards the mass transfer phenomena are incorporated, in opposition to conventional approach. The design procedure was translated into a convenient algorithm using C++ as programming language. A column was built in order to test the models used either in the design or in the simulation of the column performance. The experiments were fulfilled using a solution of chloroform in distilled water. Another model was built to simulate the operational performance of the column, both in steady state and in transient conditions. It consists in a system of two partial non linear differential equations (distributed parameters). Nevertheless, when flows are steady, the system became linear, although there is not an evident solution in analytical terms. In steady state the resulting system of ODE can be solved, allowing for the calculation of the concentration profile in both phases inside the column. In transient state the system of PDE was numerically solved by finite differences, after a previous linearization.

Fresh-state properties of self-compacting mortar and concrete with combined use of limestone filler and fly ash

This paper presents the results of a study on the behaviour of self-compacting concrete (SCC) in the fresh and hardened states, produced with binary and ternary mixes of fly ash (FA) and limestone filler (LF), using the method proposed by Nepomuceno. His method determines the SCC composition parameters in the mortar phase (self-compacting mortar - SCM) easily and efficiently, whilst guaranteeing the SCC properties in both the fresh and hardened states. For this, 11 SCMs were studied: one with cement (C) only; three with FA at 30%, 60% and 70% C substitution; three with LF at 30%, 60% and 70% C substitution; four with FA + LF in combinations of 10-20%, 20-10%, 20-40% and 40-20% C substitution. Once the composition of these mortars was defined, 18 SCC mixes were produced: 14 binary SCC mixes were produced with the seven binary mortar mixes, and four ternary SCC mixes were produced with the four ternary mortar mixes. In addition to the methodology proposed by Nepomuceno, the combined use of FA and LF in ternary mixtures was tested. The results confirmed that the method could yield SCC with adequate properties in both the fresh and hardened states. It was also possible to determine the SCC composition parameters in the mortar phase (self-compacting mortar - SCM) that will guarantee the SCC properties in both the fresh and hardened states, as confirmed through the optimized behaviour of the SCC in the fresh state and the promising results in the hardened state (compressive strength). The potential demonstrated by the joint use of LF and FA through the synergetic interaction of both additions is emphasized.

Is there space for senior civil servants hybrid management models across political- administrative systems?

Comunicação apresentada na 17.ª conferência anual da NISPACee, realizada de 14 a 16 de Maio de 2009.