Changing patterns of cancer incidence in the early- and late-HAART periods: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 1996 led to a decrease in the incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), but not of other cancers, among people with HIV or AIDS (PWHA). It also led to marked increases in their life expectancy. METHODS: We conducted a record-linkage study between the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and nine Swiss cantonal cancer registries. In total, 9429 PWHA provided 20,615, 17,690, and 15,410 person-years in the pre-, early-, and late-HAART periods, respectively. Standardised incidence ratios in PWHA vs the general population, as well as age-standardised, and age-specific incidence rates were computed for different periods. RESULTS: Incidence of KS and NHL decreased by several fold between the pre- and early-HAART periods, and additionally declined from the early- to the late-HAART period. Incidence of cancers of the anus, liver, non-melanomatous skin, and Hodgkin's lymphoma increased in the early- compared with the pre-HAART period, but not during the late-HAART period. The incidence of all non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) combined was similar in all periods, and approximately double that in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in the incidence of selected NADCs after the introduction of HAART were largely accounted for by the ageing of PWHA.

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

Do walking strategies to increase physical activity reduce reported sitting in workplaces: a randomized control trial

Background: Interventions designed to increase workplace physical activity may not automatically reduce high volumes of sitting, a behaviour independently linked to chronic diseases such as obesity and type II diabetes. This study compared the impact two different walking strategies had on step counts and reported sitting times. Methods: Participants were white-collar university employees (n = 179; age 41.3 ± 10.1 years; 141 women), who volunteered and undertook a standardised ten-week intervention at three sites. Preintervention step counts (Yamax SW-200) and self-reported sitting times were measured over five consecutive workdays. Using pre-intervention step counts, employees at each site were randomly allocated to a control group (n = 60; maintain normal behaviour), a route-based walking group (n = 60; at least 10 minutes sustained walking each workday) or an incidental walking group (n = 59; walking in workday tasks). Workday step counts and reported sitting times were re-assessed at the beginning, mid- and endpoint of intervention and group mean± SD steps/day and reported sitting times for pre-intervention and intervention measurement points compared using a mixed factorial ANOVA; paired sample-t-tests were used for follow-up, simple effect analyses. Results: A significant interactive effect (F = 3.5; p < 0.003) was found between group and step counts. Daily steps for controls decreased over the intervention period (-391 steps/day) and increased for route (968 steps/day; t = 3.9, p < 0.000) and incidental (699 steps/day; t = 2.5, p < 0.014) groups. There were no significant changes for reported sitting times, but average values did decrease relative to the control (routes group = 7 minutes/day; incidental group = 15 minutes/day). Reductions were most evident for the incidental group in the first week of intervention, where reported sitting decreased by an average of 21 minutes/day (t = 1.9; p < 0.057). Conclusion: Compared to controls, both route and incidental walking increased physical activity in white-collar employees. Our data suggests that workplace walking, particularly through incidental movement, also has the potential to decrease employee sitting times, but there is a need for on-going research using concurrent and objective measures of sitting, standing and walking.

Tema y narración en Eyes Wide Shut

A partir de la complejidad argumental y temática de la película Eyes Wide Shut, dirigida por Stanley Kubrick, se presenta una propuesta interpretativa que analiza la relación entre el tema de la película, la trama narrativa y la novela en que se basa, Traumnovelle (Relato soñado), de Arthur Schnitzler. La estructura argumental se sostiene en un elemento temático específico, los impulsos sexuales de una pareja –y los sueños y las fantasías vinculados–, en una trama en la que se suceden episodios que representan estos impulsos. Las escenas proyectan las tendencias del inconsciente de los personajes (en sueños, en fantasías y también en situaciones dudosamente reales) de forma cada vez más intensa, hasta llegar al anticlímax de cotidianidad con que concluye la película.

Le bon vin d’Orleans, le punays lac de Sorbone et la mode de Bretaigne: sociocentrisme lúdic i ambivalència als blasons populars del Pantagruel de Rabelais, amb mostres de versions en diferents llengües

En aquest article es presenta una selecció d’un corpus extret del Pantagruel, en el qual els personatges de Rabelais ataquen o afalaguen, grotescament i hiperbòlica, en el més pur estil pantagruèlic, les altres nacions o viles. Per a aquests epítets ètnics, Rabelais reutilitza el blasó popular (blason populaire), en una fusió total de la lloança i la injúria. En el nostre treball comprovarem si la visió sociocèntrica que el blasonador aplica al blasonat, així com el propòsit lúdic, han aconseguit ser traslladats a les versions catalana (Miquel-Àngel Sánchez Férriz, 1985), espanyola (Alicia Yllera, 2003), italiana (Mario Bonfantini, 1953) i anglesa (Burton Raffel, 1991).

Connecting India: The rise of standards in service offshoring

This paper explores the role of international standards in the globalisation of the service economy. Various strands of economic analyses consider that core attributes of services affect their ability to be reliably delocalised, industrialised and standardised. In contrast, international political economy (IPE) approaches draw attention to power configurations supporting conflicting use of standards across industries and nations. The paper examines the case of the Indian service industry in business process outsourcing to probe these opposing views. Our findings suggest that standards matter in types of services conventionally identified as unlikely to be standardised, and that their use raise little conflict. An IPE perspective on service standardisation highlights, however, the importance of potential power issues likely to be included in more progressive forms of standardisation

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

The Lausanne Institutional Biobank: a new resource to catalyse research in personalised medicine and pharmaceutical sciences.

Breakthrough technologies which now enable the sequencing of individual genomes will irreversibly modify the way diseases are diagnosed, predicted, prevented and treated. For these technologies to reach their full potential requires, upstream, access to high-quality biomedical data and samples from large number of properly informed and consenting individuals and, downstream, the possibility to transform the emerging knowledge into a clinical utility. The Lausanne Institutional Biobank was designed as an integrated, highly versatile infrastructure to harness the power of these emerging technologies and catalyse the discovery and development of innovative therapeutics and biomarkers, and advance the field of personalised medicine. Described here are its rationale, design and governance, as well as parallel initiatives which have been launched locally to address the societal, ethical and technological issues associated with this new bio-resource. Since January 2013, inpatients admitted at Lausanne CHUV University Hospital have been systematically invited to provide a general consent for the use of their biomedical data and samples for research, to complete a standardised questionnaire, to donate a 10-ml sample of blood for future DNA extraction and to be re-contacted for future clinical trials. Over the first 18 months of operation, 14,459 patients were contacted, and 11,051 accepted to participate in the study. This initial 18-month experience illustrates that a systematic hospital-based biobank is feasible; it shows a strong engagement in research from the patient population in this University Hospital setting, and the need for a broad, integrated approach for the future of medicine to reach its full potential.

L'équité d'accès aux ressources en eau : fin ou moyen d'amélioration de l'efficacité de l'irrigation ? : la gestion des ressources en eau dans l'état du Gujarat (Inde) dans la perpective de la political ecology

La thèse présentée ici est le résultat d'une étroite collaboration avec une ONG indienne, AKRSP(I), intervenant dans le développement de l'irrigation au Gujarat depuis plus de 25 ans. Un SIG prototype a été mis en oeuvre et nous permet de proposer ime analyse spatiale et quantitative de l'action de cette ONG ainsi qu'une réflexion plus générale sur les leviers de mise en valeur et de gestion des ressources en eau à des fins agricoles. On peut souligner trois principaux enseignements: Les perspectives d'application des SIG au sein des ONG sont manifestes. Les exigences des bailleurs de fonds peuvent néanmoins faire obstacle à leur développement car, indi-rectement, ils favorisent la mise en oeuvre de SI voués à la justification plutôt qu'à la planification et au suivi des programmes d'actions. Ce résultat soulève la question de la pertinence de l'encadrement, des critères d'évaluation et de la conditionnalité de l'aide publique au développement. Les ONG ont un fort potentiel pour participer à la mise en valeur des ressources en eau en Inde et aider à relever le défi agro-démographique indien, en particulier dans les zones marginales où les services étatiques sont en retrait. Les stratégies d'action basées principalement sur l'application des instruments économiques et techniques doivent cependant être modifiées. Nous montrons qu'elles favorisent une inégalité d'accès aux ressources qui débouche sur une efficacité limitée des pratiques d'irrigation, sur un plan agro-technique. Ces résultats soulignent la nécessité de poursuivre une réflexion critique des discours et solutions dominants en matière de gestion des ressources en eau. Deux pistes d'amélioration sont avancées: 1. considérer l'équité d'accès comme un moyen d'optimiser la gestion de la ressource (limiter le volume d'eau par agriculteur pour encourager les choix de cultures irriguées peu consommatrices et l'adoption des technologies d'économie d'eau), 2. prêter attention à l'ordre dans lequel les différents instruments de gestion disponibles sont employés afin de les articuler dans un séquençage temporel pertinent. La Political Ecology apparait comme un cadre conceptuel très pertinent pour engager cette réflexion critique. Elle permet d'intégrer différentes échelles d'asymétries de pouvoirs à la compréhension des situations et des blocages observables localement : inégalités de capabilités et forces socio-politiques à l'échelle locale, politiques agro-industrielles (coton) et jeux d'alliances politiques des castes à l'échelle nationale, discours et conflits idéologiques ou orientations stratégiques des bailleurs de fonds à l'échelle internationale... Notre recherche empirique contribue modestement au développement de cette Political Ecology de la mise en valeur et de la gestion des ressources en eau. - The present research is based on a close collaboration with an indian NGO, AKRSP(I), which is active in the development of irrigation facilities in Gujarat for the past 25 years. We built a GIS prototype providing quantitative and spatial datas to analyse the NGO intervention and propose a general reflection about water resources development and management issues. Three main findings may be emphasized : The potential of GIS within the workings of an NGO is obvious, as an information ma-nagement tool as much as for developing analytical capacity. However, financial backers expectations may not favour a relevant development of this technology. Indirectly, they promote Information Systems built to justify rather than to plan or monitor action pro¬grammes. This raises the question of stricter framework, conditionality criters and stan¬dardised assessment indicators surrounding official development assistance. There is strong potential that NGOs can assist with the improvement of water resources in India. They can help in overcoming Indian demographic-related agricultural challenges, especially in marginal rural areas neglected by state services. However, intervention strategies mainly based on technical and economic management tools has to be adapted. We found that they lead to inequitable access and distribution of water resources what induces a low efficiency of irrigation practices from an agro-technical point of view. These results underline the need to go further in criticizing dominant ideas and guidelines regarding water resources management. We suggest two other options : 1. to consider equitable access has a tool to improve the effective use of water for agricul¬tural purposes (limiting the volume of water available per farmer would encourage them to adopt low water consumption crops and water saving technics), 2. to consider more carefully the order of use of the various management tools available and to structure them in a relevant sequence. Here, Political Ecology seems to be a relevant conceptual framework to enter into such a critical reflection, integrating different levels and scales of political asymmetries at the core of environmental issues. Indeed, the understanding of regional water situations and social stumbling blocks needs not only to consider local capabilities and socio-political inequities, but also agro-industrial policy (e.i. cotton) and caste political alliances at a national scale, as well as ideological and narrative struggles or strategical orientations of financial backers at an international level. Our empirical research modestly contributes to the development of such a Political Ecology of water resources development and management.

Should pulmonary embolism be suspected in exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease?

BACKGROUND: The cause of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is often difficult to determine. Pulmonary embolism may be a trigger of acute dyspnoea in patients with COPD. AIM: To determine the prevalence of pulmonary embolism in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD. METHODS: 123 consecutive patients admitted to the emergency departments of two academic teaching hospitals for acute exacerbation of moderate to very severe COPD were included. Pulmonary embolism was investigated in all patients (whether or not clinically suspected) following a standardised algorithm based on d-dimer testing, lower-limb venous ultrasonography and multidetector helical computed tomography scan. RESULTS: Pulmonary embolism was ruled out by a d-dimer value <500 microg/l in 28 (23%) patients and a by negative chest computed tomography scan in 91 (74%). Computed tomography scan showed pulmonary embolism in four patients (3.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2% to 8%), including three lobar and one sub-segmental embolisms. The prevalence of pulmonary embolism was 6.2% (n = 3; 95% CI, 2.3% to 16.9%) in the 48 patients who had a clinical suspicion of pulmonary embolism and 1.3% (n = 1; 95% CI, 0.3% to 7.1%) in those not suspected. In two cases with positive computed tomography scan, the venous ultrasonography also showed a proximal deep-vein thrombosis. No other patient was diagnosed with venous thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of unsuspected pulmonary embolism is very low in patients admitted in the emergency department for an acute exacerbation of their COPD. These results argue against a systematic examination for pulmonary embolism in this population.

Reduced cardiorespiratory fitness, low physical activity and an urban environment are independently associated with increased cardiovascular risk in children.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To assist in the development of preventive strategies, we studied whether the neighbourhood environment or modifiable behavioural parameters, including cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and physical activity (PA), are independently associated with obesity and metabolic risk markers in children. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analysis of 502 randomly selected first and fifth grade urban and rural Swiss schoolchildren with regard to CRF, PA and the neighbourhood (rural vs urban) environment. Outcome measures included BMI, sum of four skinfold thicknesses, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and a standardised clustered metabolic risk score. RESULTS: CRF and PA (especially total PA, but also the time spent engaged in light and in moderate and vigorous intensity PA) were inversely associated with measures of obesity, HOMA-IR and the metabolic risk score, independently of each other, and of sociodemographic and nutritional parameters, media use, sleep duration, BMI and the neighbourhood environment (all p < 0.05). Children living in a rural environment were more physically active and had higher CRF values and reduced HOMA-IR and metabolic risk scores compared with children living in an urban environment (all p < 0.05). These differences in cardiovascular risk factors persisted after adjustment for CRF, total PA and BMI. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Reduced CRF, low PA and an urban environment are independently associated with an increase in metabolic risk markers in children.

Diagnosis, prevention and treatment of hepatorenal syndrome in cirrhosis

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a serious complication of end-stage liver disease, occurring mainly in patients with advanced cirrhosis and ascites, who have marked circulatory dysfunction,1 as well as in patients with acute liver failure.2 In spite of its functional nature, HRS is associated with a poor prognosis,3 4 and the only effective treatment is liver transplantation. During the 56th Meeting of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases, the International Ascites Club held a Focused Study Group (FSG) on HRS for the purpose of reporting the results of an international workshop and to reach a consensus on a new definition, criteria for diagnosis and recommendations on HRS treatment. A similar workshop was held in Chicago in 1994 in which standardised nomenclature and diagnostic criteria for refractory ascites and HRS were established.5 The introduction of innovative treatments and improvements in our understanding of the pathogenesis of HRS during the previous decade led to an increasing need to undertake a new consensus meeting. This paper reports the scientific rationale behind the new definitions and recommendations. The international workshop included four issues debated by four panels of experts (see Acknowledgements). The issues were: (1) evidence-based HRS pathogenesis; (2) treatment of HRS using vasoconstrictors; (3) other HRS treatments using transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPS) and extracorporeal albumin dialysis (ECAD); and (4) new definitions and diagnostic criteria for HRS and recommendations for its treatment.

Iowa's Barriers to Prenatal Care Project, July 2015

The findings in this summary are based on the Iowa Barriers to Prenatal Care project. Ongoing since 1991, the purpose of this project is to obtain brief, accurate information about women delivering babies in Iowa hospitals. Specifically, the project seeks to learn about women’s experiences getting prenatal or delivery care during their current pregnancy. Other information is included which may be pertinent to health planners or those concerned with the systematic development of health care services. This project is a cooperative venture of all of Iowa’s maternity hospitals, the University of Northern Iowa Center for Social and Behavioral Research, and the Iowa Department of Public Health. The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation funded the first three years of this project. The current funding is provided by the Iowa Department of Public Health. The Director is Dr. Mary Losch, University of Northern Iowa Center for Social and Behavioral Research. The Coordinator for the project is Rodney Muilenburg. The questionnaire is distributed to nearly ninety maternity hospitals across the state of Iowa. Nursing staff or those responsible for obtaining birth certificate information in the obstetrics unit are responsible for approaching all birth mothers prior to dismissal to request their participation in the study. The questionnaire takes approximately ten minutes to complete. Completed questionnaires are returned to the University of Northern Iowa Center for Social and Behavioral Research for data entry and analysis. Returns are made monthly, weekly, or biweekly depending on the number of births per week in a given hospital. Except in the case of a mother who is too ill to complete the questionnaire, all mothers are eligible to be recruited for participation. The present yearly report includes an analysis of large Iowa cities, frequencies by income, and a trend analysis of the last ten years. Also presented in this report is a frequency analysis of all variables included in the 2014 questionnaire. Unless otherwise noted, all entries reflect percentages. Please note that, because percentages were rounded, total values may not equal 100%. Data presented are based upon 2014 questionnaires received to date (n = 24,696). All analyses reflect unweighted percentages of those responding.

Amplitude envelope synchronization in coupled chaotic oscillators.

A peculiar type of synchronization has been found when two Van der PolDuffing oscillators, evolving in different chaotic attractors, are coupled. As the coupling increases, the frequencies of the two oscillators remain different, while a synchronized modulation of the amplitudes of a signal of each system develops, and a null Lyapunov exponent of the uncoupled systems becomes negative and gradually larger in absolute value. This phenomenon is characterized by an appropriate correlation function between the returns of the signals, and interpreted in terms of the mutual excitation of new frequencies in the oscillators power spectra. This form of synchronization also occurs in other systems, but it shows up mixed with or screened by other forms of synchronization, as illustrated in this paper by means of the examples of the dynamic behavior observed for three other different models of chaotic oscillators.

An international registry on autoinflammatory diseases: the Eurofever experience.

OBJECTIVE: To report on the demographic data from the first 18 months of enrollment to an international registry on autoinflammatory diseases in the context of the Eurofever project. METHODS: A web-based registry collecting baseline and clinical information on autoinflammatory diseases and related conditions is available in the member area of the PRINTO web-site. Anonymised data were collected with standardised forms. RESULTS: 1880 (M:F=916:964) individuals from 67 centers in 31 countries have been entered in the Eurofever registry. Most of the patients (1388; 74%), reside in western Europe, 294 (16%) in the eastern and southern Mediterranean region (Turkey, Israel, North Africa), 106 (6%) in eastern Europe, 54 in Asia, 27 in South America and 11 in Australia. In total 1049 patients with a clinical diagnosis of a monogenic autoinflammatory diseases have been enrolled; genetic analysis was performed in 993 patients (95%): 703 patients have genetically confirmed disease and 197 patients are heterozygous carriers of mutations in genes that are mutated in patients with recessively inherited autoinflammatory diseases. The median diagnosis delay was 7.3 years (range 0.3-76), with a clear reduction in patients born after the identification of the first gene associated with autoinflammatory diseases in 1997. CONCLUSIONS: A shared online registry for patients with autoinflammatory diseases is available and enrollment is ongoing. Currently, there are data available for analysis on clinical presentation, disease course, and response to treatment, and to perform large scale comparative studies between different conditions.