Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.

Radiocarbon calibration in the Anglo-Saxon period: AD 495-725

Radiocarbon dating has been rarely used for chronological problems relating to the Anglo-Saxon period. The "flatness" of the calibration curve and the resultant wide range in calendrical dates provide little advantage over traditional archaeological dating in this period. Recent advances in Bayesian methodology have, however, created the possibility of refining and checking the established chronologies, based on typology of artifacts, against 14C dates. The calibration process, within such a confined age range, however, relies heavily on the structural accuracy of the calibration curve. We have therefore re-measured, at decadal intervals, a section of the Irish oak chronology for the period AD 495–725. These measurements have been included in IntCal04.

Place and Special Places: Innovations in Conservation Practice in Northern Ireland

The sense of place that relates human beings to their environment is under threat from the rising tide of placelessness which can result from potentially positive forces such as urban regeneration as well as negative ones such as incremental degradation. The concept of sense of place, and the need to protect and enhance special places, has underpinned UK conservation legislation and policy in the post-war era. In Northern Ireland, due to its distinctive settlement tradition, its troubled political circumstances and its centralised administrative system, a unique hierarchy of special places has evolved, involving areas of townscape and village character as well as conventional conservation areas. For the first time a comprehensive comparative survey of the townscape quality of most of these areas has been carried out in order to test the hypothesis that too many conservation area designations may devalue the conservation coinage. It also assesses the contribution that areas of townscape character can make in this situation, as potential conservation areas or as second-level local amenity designations. Its findings support the initial hypothesis: assessment of townscape quality on the basis of consistent criteria demonstrates a decline in the quality of more recent conservation area designations, and hence some devaluation of the coinage. However, the need for local discretion in the protection of local amenity supports the concept of areas of townscape and village character as an additional and distinct designation. This contradicts recent policy recommendations from the Northern Ireland Planning Commission and contains valuable lessons for conservation policy and practice in other parts of the UK.

'The Aftermath of the Annan Plan Referendums' Cross-Voting Moderation for Cyprus

This article examines recent developments in the Cyprus negotiations and suggests a number of changes to the proposed electoral system. Specifically, cross-voting and other electoral methods that encourage coalition-building across ethnic communities might add significantly to the functionality of the Annan Plan. Combined with other innovative mechanisms already in the plan, cross-voting could force political parties to seriously take into account the interests and concerns of the two Cypriot communities, an element that is currently missing from both the Turkish Cypriot (TC) and Greek Cypriot (GC) political systems. Special conditions on the island, as well as the way most political parties operated in the critical pre-April 2004 referendum period, suggest the need for this amendment. Although this study respects the consociational logic of the Annan Plan, it supplements consociationalism with elements that foster integration and inter-dependence between the two communities and their voters. The article also reviews the postreferendum developments in Cyprus which might have worrisome future implications, not only for its two communities, but also for EU enlargement in general. Cyprus both holds one of the keys to Turkey's entrance into the EU and is a litmus test for the Euro-Atlantic nexus and its capacity to pacify and integrate ethnically divided societies in Europe and elsewhere.

Long-period chromospheric oscillations in network bright points

The spatial variation of chromospheric oscillations in network bright points (NBPs) is studied using high-resolution observations in Ca II K3. Light curves and hence power spectra were created by isolating distinct regions of the NBP via a simple intensity thresholding technique. Using this technique, it was possible to identify peaks in the power spectra with particular spatial positions within the NBPs. In particular, long-period waves with periods of 4-15 minutes (1-4 mHz) were found in the central portions of each NBP, indicating that these waves are certainly not acoustic but possibly due to magnetoacoustic or magnetogravity wave modes. We also show that spatially averaged or low spatial resolution power spectra can lead to an inability to detect such long-period waves.

Dynamic analysis of employment trajectories through the concept of fl exicurity

The paper presents a dynamic study of the Spanish labour market which tries to determine if it matches the characteristics of transitional labour markets from a fl exicurity approach. Employment trajectories of Spanish workers during the years 2007-2010 are studied using the Continuous Sample of Working Lives. This period covers the end of the expansion of the Spanish economy and the beginning of the current employment crisis. From the combination of the chosen topic, the approach, and the database used, this is a novel perspective in our country. The article shows evidence of the evolution of the employment and unemployment spells, the Spanish labour market turnover degree, and the diffi culties of some groups for carrying out transition between employment and unemployment. The results obtained show a labour market in which a) transitions have come to a halt, and b) there is high job insecurity.

Substance Use Behaviours of Young People with A Moderate Learning Disability: A longitudinal analysis

Substance use behaviours of young people attending a special school are reported over a four year period from the age of 12-16 years. The paper investigated these behaviours by surveying a cohort of young people with a statement for moderate learning disabilities annually during the last four years of compulsory schooling. The findings show that these young people consistently reported lower levels of tobacco, alcohol and cannabis use compared with those attending mainstream school. No other illicit drug use was reported. The potential implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the context and timing of targeted substance education and prevention initiatives for young people with moderate learning disability attending a special school.