A comparison of space weather analysis techniques used to predict the arrival of the Earth-directed CME and its shockwave launched on 8 April 2010

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) of 8 April 2010 provided an opportunity for space weather predictions from both established and developmental techniques to be made from near–real time data received from the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft; the STEREO spacecraft provide a unique view of Earth-directed events from outside the Sun-Earth line. Although the near–real time data transmitted by the STEREO Space Weather Beacon are significantly poorer in quality than the subsequently downlinked science data, the use of these data has the advantage that near–real time analysis is possible, allowing actual forecasts to be made. The fact that such forecasts cannot be biased by any prior knowledge of the actual arrival time at Earth provides an opportunity for an unbiased comparison between several established and developmental forecasting techniques. We conclude that for forecasts based on the STEREO coronagraph data, it is important to take account of the subsequent acceleration/deceleration of each CME through interaction with the solar wind, while predictions based on measurements of CMEs made by the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers would benefit from higher temporal and spatial resolution. Space weather forecasting tools must work with near–real time data; such data, when provided by science missions, is usually highly compressed and/or reduced in temporal/spatial resolution and may also have significant gaps in coverage, making such forecasts more challenging.

Wavelet filtered modelling applied to measurements of a waveguide's THz time domain response

A quasi-optical de-embedding technique for characterizing waveguides is demonstrated using wideband time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy. A transfer function representation is adopted for the description of the signal in the input and output port of the waveguides. The time domain responses were discretised and the waveguide transfer function was obtained through a parametric approach in the z-domain after describing the system with an ARX as well as with a state space model. Prior to the identification procedure, filtering was performed in the wavelet domain to minimize signal distortion and the noise propagating in the ARX and subspace models. The model identification procedure requires isolation of the phase delay in the structure and therefore the time-domain signatures must be firstly aligned with respect to each other before they are compared. An initial estimate of the number of propagating modes was provided by comparing the measured phase delay in the structure with theoretical calculations that take into account the physical dimensions of the waveguide. Models derived from measurements of THz transients in a precision WR-8 waveguide adjustable short will be presented.

Switching on a two-dimensional time-harmonic scalar wave in the presence of a diffracting edge

This paper concerns the switching on of two-dimensional time-harmonic scalar waves. We first review the switch-on problem for a point source in free space, then proceed to analyse the analogous problem for the diffraction of a plane wave by a half-line (the ‘Sommerfeld problem’), determining in both cases the conditions under which the field is well-approximated by the solution of the corresponding frequency domain problem. In both cases the rate of convergence to the frequency domain solution is found to be dependent on the strength of the singularity on the leading wavefront. In the case of plane wave diffraction at grazing incidence the frequency domain solution is immediately attained along the shadow boundary after the arrival of the leading wavefront. The case of non-grazing incidence is also considered.

A near real-time algorithm for flood detection in urban and rural areas using high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A near real-time flood detection algorithm giving a synoptic overview of the extent of flooding in both urban and rural areas, and capable of working during night-time and day-time even if cloud was present, could be a useful tool for operational flood relief management and flood forecasting. The paper describes an automatic algorithm using high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data that assumes that high resolution topographic height data are available for at least the urban areas of the scene, in order that a SAR simulator may be used to estimate areas of radar shadow and layover. The algorithm proved capable of detecting flooding in rural areas using TerraSAR-X with good accuracy, and in urban areas with reasonable accuracy.

Accurate radiometry from space: an essential tool for climate studies

The Earth's climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a ‘primary standard’ and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a ‘metrology laboratory in space’.

Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Reduced space optimal interpolation of daily rain gauge precipitation in Switzerland

The coarse spacing of automatic rain gauges complicates near-real- time spatial analyses of precipitation. We test the possibility of improving such analyses by considering, in addition to the in situ measurements, the spatial covariance structure inferred from past observations with a denser network. To this end, a statistical reconstruction technique, reduced space optimal interpolation (RSOI), is applied over Switzerland, a region of complex topography. RSOI consists of two main parts. First, principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to obtain a reduced space representation of gridded high- resolution precipitation fields available for a multiyear calibration period in the past. Second, sparse real-time rain gauge observations are used to estimate the principal component scores and to reconstruct the precipitation field. In this way, climatological information at higher resolution than the near-real-time measurements is incorporated into the spatial analysis. PCA is found to efficiently reduce the dimensionality of the calibration fields, and RSOI is successful despite the difficulties associated with the statistical distribution of daily precipitation (skewness, dry days). Examples and a systematic evaluation show substantial added value over a simple interpolation technique that uses near-real-time observations only. The benefit is particularly strong for larger- scale precipitation and prominent topographic effects. Small-scale precipitation features are reconstructed at a skill comparable to that of the simple technique. Stratifying the reconstruction method by the types of weather type classifications yields little added skill. Apart from application in near real time, RSOI may also be valuable for enhancing instrumental precipitation analyses for the historic past when direct observations were sparse.

Parallel pipelined array architectures for real-time histogram computation in consumer devices

The real-time parallel computation of histograms using an array of pipelined cells is proposed and prototyped in this paper with application to consumer imaging products. The array operates in two modes: histogram computation and histogram reading. The proposed parallel computation method does not use any memory blocks. The resulting histogram bins can be stored into an external memory block in a pipelined fashion for subsequent reading or streaming of the results. The array of cells can be tuned to accommodate the required data path width in a VLSI image processing engine as present in many imaging consumer devices. Synthesis of the architectures presented in this paper in FPGA are shown to compute the real-time histogram of images streamed at over 36 megapixels at 30 frames/s by processing in parallel 1, 2 or 4 pixels per clock cycle.

Space heating and hot water demand analysis of dwellings connected to district heating scheme in UK

To achieve CO2 emissions reductions the UK Building Regulations require developers of new residential buildings to calculate expected CO2 emissions arising from their energy consumption using a methodology such as Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP 2005) or, more recently SAP 2009. SAP encompasses all domestic heat consumption and a limited proportion of the electricity consumption. However, these calculations are rarely verified with real energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. This paper presents the results of an analysis based on weekly head demand data for more than 200 individual flats. The data is collected from recently built residential development connected to a district heating network. A methodology for separating out the domestic hot water use (DHW) and space heating demand (SH) has been developed and compares measured values to the demand calculated using SAP 2005 and 2009 methodologies. The analysis shows also the variance in DHW and SH consumption between both size of the flats and tenure (privately owned or housing association). Evaluation of the space heating consumption includes also an estimation of the heating degree day (HDD) base temperature for each block of flats and its comparison to the average base temperature calculated using the SAP 2005 methodology.

Asymmetric space market adjustment in the London office market

Models of the City of London office market are extended by considering a longer time series of data, covering two cycles, and by explicit modeling of asymmetric rental response to supply and demand model. A long run structural model linking demand for office space, real rental levels and office-based employment is estimated and then rental adjustment processes are modeled using an error correction model framework. Adjustment processes are seen to be asymmetric, dependent both on the direction of the supply and demand shock and on the state of the rental market at the time of the shock. A complete system of equations is estimated: unit shocks produce oscillations but there is a return to a steady equilibrium state in the long run.

Attention through self-synchronisation in the spiking neuron stochastic diffusion network

The paper discusses ensemble behaviour in the Spiking Neuron Stochastic Diffusion Network, SNSDN, a novel network exploring biologically plausible information processing based on higher order temporal coding. SNSDN was proposed as an alternative solution to the binding problem [1]. SNSDN operation resembles Stochastic Diffusin on Search, SDS, a non-deterministic search algorithm able to rapidly locate the best instantiation of a target pattern within a noisy search space ([3], [5]). In SNSDN, relevant information is encoded in the length of interspike intervals. Although every neuron operates in its own time, ‘attention’ to a pattern in the search space results in self-synchronised activity of a large population of neurons. When multiple patterns are present in the search space, ‘switching of at- tention’ results in a change of the synchronous activity. The qualitative effect of attention on the synchronicity of spiking behaviour in both time and frequency domain will be discussed.

Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

On the long time behavior of free stochastic Schrödinger evolutions

We discuss the time evolution of the wave function which is the solution of a stochastic Schrödinger equation describing the dynamics of a free quantum particle subject to spontaneous localizations in space. We prove global existence and uniqueness of solutions. We observe that there exist three time regimes: the collapse regime, the classical regime and the diffusive regime. Concerning the latter, we assert that the general solution converges almost surely to a diffusing Gaussian wave function having a finite spread both in position as well as in momentum. This paper corrects and completes earlier works on this issue.

Recent advances in global electric circuit coupling between the space environment and the troposphere

The global atmospheric electric circuit is driven by thunderstorms and electrified rain/shower clouds and is also influenced by energetic charged particles from space. The global circuit maintains the ionosphere as an equipotential at∼+250 kV with respect to the good conducting Earth (both land and oceans). Its “load” is the fair weather atmosphere and semi-fair weather atmosphere at large distances from the disturbed weather “generator” regions. The main solar-terrestrial (or space weather) influence on the global circuit arises from spatially and temporally varying fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and energetic electrons precipitating from the magnetosphere. All components of the circuit exhibit much variability in both space and time. Global circuit variations between solar maximum and solar minimum are considered together with Forbush decrease and solar flare effects. The variability in ion concentration and vertical current flow are considered in terms of radiative effects in the troposphere, through infra-red absorption, and cloud effects, in particular possible cloud microphysical effects from charging at layer cloud edges. The paper identifies future research areas in relation to Task Group 4 of the Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System (CAWSES-II) programme.

Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on the Earth’s cryosphere and sea level change

Rising sea level is perhaps the most severe consequence of climate warming, as much of the world’s population and infrastructure is located near current sea level (Lemke et al. 2007). A major rise of a metre or more would cause serious problems. Such possibilities have been suggested by Hansen and Sato (2011) who pointed out that sea level was several metres higher than now during the Holsteinian and Eemian interglacials (about 250,000 and 120,000 years ago, respectively), even though the global temperature was then only slightly higher than it is nowadays. It is consequently of the utmost importance to determine whether such a sea level rise could occur and, if so, how fast it might happen. Sea level undergoes considerable changes due to natural processes such as the wind, ocean currents and tidal motions. On longer time scales, the sea level is influenced by steric effects (sea water expansion caused by temperature and salinity changes of the ocean) and by eustatic effects caused by changes in ocean mass. Changes in the Earth’s cryosphere, such as the retreat or expansion of glaciers and land ice areas, have been the dominant cause of sea level change during the Earth’s recent history. During the glacial cycles of the last million years, the sea level varied by a large amount, of the order of 100 m. If the Earth’s cryosphere were to disappear completely, the sea level would rise by some 65 m. The scientific papers in the present volume address the different aspects of the Earth’s cryosphere and how the different changes in the cryosphere affect sea level change. It represents the outcome of the first workshop held within the new ISSI Earth Science Programme. The workshop took place from 22 to 26 March, 2010, in Bern, Switzerland, with the objective of providing an in-depth insight into the future of mountain glaciers and the large land ice areas of Antarctica and Greenland, which are exposed to natural and anthropogenic climate influences, and their effects on sea level change. The participants of the workshop are experts in different fields including meteorology, climatology, oceanography, glaciology and geodesy; they use advanced space-based observational studies and state-of-the-art numerical modelling.