First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Genomic evidence for the Pleistocene and recent population history of Native Americans

How and when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative “Paleoamerican” relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericúes and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

South American seasonally-dry tropical forests (SDTF) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12,000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8,000 and 7,000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined, but severe regional droughts persisted through the mid-Holocene, SDTF, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTF are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.

Oral health in transition: the case of Indigenous peoples from Brazil

The objective of this paper is to summarise epidemiological information about the distribution of dental caries among Indigenous peoples in Brazil. The authors also present a case study of a specific group of Xavante Indians, one of the most numerous of Brazil`s Indigenous peoples, describing how their oral health has deteriorated over recent decades, and showing how an oral health programme is attempting to reverse the present trend of increase in caries. The programme at Etenheritipa Xavante village incorporated three principal components: educational, preventive, and clinical. From the beginning, the programme included epidemiological record keeping for monitoring the level of caries in the population. Transversal studies of the condition of oral health among the Xavante of Etenheritipa were undertaken in 1999, 2004, and 2007. In the period from 2004 to 2007 the DMFS values in the 11-15 age cohort had a significant reduction in caries experience. The mean DMFS score fell from 4.95 in 2004 to 2.39 in 2007 (p<0.01). An increase in the percent of individuals who were free from caries was also noted: in 1999, 20% of adolescents 11-15 had no caries; in 2007, the proportion had risen to 47%. The Xavante case is a prime example of the transition in oral health that is taking place among the Indigenous peoples of the Americas, and it highlights the importance of oral health promotion through preventive measures such as access to fluoridation and basic care in reducing the inequality between Indians and non-Indians.

Climatic simulations of the eastern Andes low-level jet and its dependency on convective parameterizations

The South American low level jet (SALLJ) of the Eastern Andes is investigated with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations during the 2002-2003 austral summer using two convective parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The simulated SALLJ is compared with the special observations of SALLJEX (SALLJ Experiment). Both the Grell and Emanuel schemes adequately simulate the low level flow over South America. However, there are some intensity differences. Due to the larger (smaller) convective activity, the Emanuel (Grell) scheme simulates more intense (weaker) low level wind than analysis in the tropics and subtropics. The objectives criteria of Sugahara (SJ) and Bonner (BJ) were used for LLJ identification. When applied to the observations, both criteria suggest a larger frequency of the SALLJ in Santa Cruz, followed by Mariscal, Trinidad and Asuncin. In Mariscal and Asuncin, the diurnal cycle indicates that SJ occurs mainly at 12 UTCs (morning), while the BJ criterion presents the SALLJ as more homogenously distributed. The concentration into two of the four-times-a-day observations does not allow conclusions about the diurnal cycle in Santa Cruz and Trinidad. The simulated wind profiles result in a lower than observed frequency of SALLJ using both the SJ and BJ criteria, with fewer events obtained with the BJ. Due to the stronger simulated winds, the Emanuel scheme produces an equal or greater relative frequency of SALLJ than the Grell scheme. However, the Grell scheme using the SJ criterion simulates the SALLJ diurnal cycle closer to the observed one. Although some discrepancies between observed and simulated mean vertical profiles of the horizontal wind are noted, there is large agreement between the composites of the vertical structure of the SALLJ, especially when the SJ criterion is used with the Grell scheme. On an intraseasonal scale, a larger southward displacement of SALLJ in February and December when compared with January has been noted. The Grell and Emanuel schemes simulated this observed oscillation in the low-level flow. However, the spatial pattern and intensity of rainfall and circulation anomalies simulated by the Grell scheme are closer to the analyses than those obtained with the Emanuel scheme.

A Lagrangian identification of major sources of moisture over Central Brazil and La Plata Basin

[1] This work examines the main sources of moisture over Central Brazil and La Plata Basin during the year through a new Lagrangian diagnosis method which identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along back-trajectories for the previous 10 d. The origin of all air masses residing over each region was tracked during a period of 5 years (2000-2004). These regions were selected because they coincide with two centers of action of a known dipole precipitation variability mode observed in different temporal scales (from intra seasonal up to inter decadal timescales) and are related to the climatic variability of the South American Monsoon System. The results suggested the importance of the tropical south Atlantic as a moisture source for Central Brazil, and of recycling for La Plata basin. It seems that the Tropical South Atlantic plays an important role as a moisture source for Central Brazil and La Plata basin along the year, particularly during the austral summer. The north Atlantic is also an additional source for both regions during the austral summer.

Upper-mantle seismic structure beneath SE and Central Brazil from P- and S-wave regional traveltime tomography

We present models for the upper-mantle velocity structure beneath SE and Central Brazil using independent tomographic inversions of P- and S-wave relative arrival-time residuals (including core phases) from teleseismic earthquakes. The events were recorded by a total of 92 stations deployed through different projects, institutions and time periods during the years 1992-2004. Our results show correlations with the main tectonic structures and reveal new anomalies not yet observed in previous works. All interpretations are based on robust anomalies, which appear in the different inversions for P-and S-waves. The resolution is variable through our study volume and has been analyzed through different theoretical test inversions. High-velocity anomalies are observed in the western portion of the Sao Francisco Craton, supporting the hypothesis that this Craton was part of a major Neoproterozoic plate (San Franciscan Plate). Low-velocity anomalies beneath the Tocantins Province (mainly fold belts between the Amazon and Sao Francisco Cratons) are interpreted as due to lithospheric thinning, which is consistent with the good correlation between intraplate seismicity and low-velocity anomalies in this region. Our results show that the basement of the Parana Basin is formed by several blocks, separated by suture zones, according to model of Milani & Ramos. The slab of the Nazca Plate can be observed as a high-velocity anomaly beneath the Parana Basin, between the depths of 700 and 1200 km. Further, we confirm the low-velocity anomaly in the NE area of the Parana Basin which has been interpreted by VanDecar et al. as a fossil conduct of the Tristan da Cunha Plume related to the Parana flood basalt eruptions during the opening of the South Atlantic.

The intracratonic Caraibas-Itacarambi earthquake of December 09, 2007 (4.9 m(b)), Minas Gerais State, Brazil

On December 9, 2007, a 4.9 m(b) earthquake occurred in the middle of the Sao Francisco Craton, in a region with no known previous activity larger than 4 m(b). This event reached intensity VII MM (Modified Mercalli) causing the first fatal victim in Brazil. The activity had started in May 25, 2007 with a 3.5 magnitude event and continued for several months, motivating the deployment of a local 6-station network. A three week seismic quiescence was observed before the mainshock. Initial absolute hypocenters were calculated with best fitting velocity models and then relative locations were determined with hypoDD. The aftershock distribution indicates a 3 km long rupture for the mainshock. The fault plane solution, based on P-wave polarities and hypocentral trend, indicates a reverse faulting mechanism on a N30 degrees E striking plane dipping about 40 degrees to the SE. The rupture depth extends from about 0.3 to 1.2 km only. Despite the shallow depth of the mainshock, no surface feature could be correlated with the fault plane. Aeromagnetic data in the epicentral area show short-wavelength lineaments trending NNE-SSW to NE-SW which we interpret as faults and fractures in the craton basement beneath the surface limestone layer. We propose that the Caraibas-Itacarambi seismicity is probably associated with reactivation of these basement fractures and faults under the present E-W compressional stress field in this region of the South American Plate. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtual Pole from Magnetic Anomaly (VPMA): A procedure to estimate the age of a rock from its magnetic anomaly only

Virtual Pole from Magnetic Anomaly (VPMA) is a new multi-disciplinary methodology that estimates the age of a source rock from its magnetic anomaly, taken directly from available aeromagnetic data. The idea is to use those anomalies in which a strong remanent magnetic component is likely to occur. Once the total magnetization of the anomaly is computed through any of the currently available methods, the line that connects all virtual paleogeographic poles is related with the position, on a paleogeographic projection, of the appropriate age fragment of the APWT curve. We applied this procedure to five (5) well-known magnetic anomalies of the South American plate in SE Brazil, all of them associated to alkaline complexes of Mesozoic age. The apparent ages obtained from VPMA on three of the anomalies where the radiometric age of the source rock is known - Tapira, Araxa and Juquia were inside the error interval of the published ages. The VPMA apparent ages of the other two, where the age of the source rock is not known (Registro and Pariqueracu magnetic anomalies) were geologically coherent. We expect that the application of the VPMA methodology as a reconnaissance geochronological tool may contribute to geological knowledge over continental areas, especially when the source rocks of the magnetic anomalies am unknown or buried below superficial sediments. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The intraplate Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone in the Amazon craton - Brazil

The largest earthquake observed in the stable continental interior of the South American plate occurred in Serra do Tombador, Mato Grosso state - Brazil, on January 31,1955 with a magnitude of 6.2 m(b). Since then no other earthquake has been located near the 1955 epicentre. However, in Porto dos Gauchos, 100 km northeast of Serra do Tombador, a recurrent seismicity has been observed since 1959. Both Serra do Tombador and Porto dos Gauchos are located in the Phanerozoic Parecis basin. Two magnitude 5 earthquakes occurred in Porto dos Gauchos, in 1998 and 2005, with intensities up to VI and V, respectively. These two main shocks were followed by aftershock sequences lasting more than three years each. Local seismic stations have been deployed by the Seismological Observatory of the University of Brasilia since 1998 to study the ""Porto dos Gauchos"" seismic zone (PGSZ). A local seismic refraction survey was carried out with two explosions to help define the seismic velocity model. Both the 1998 and 2005 earthquake sequences occurred in the same WSW-ENE oriented fault zone with right-lateral strike-slip mechanisms. The epicentral zone is in the Parecis basin, near its northern border where there are buried grabens, generally trending WNW-ESE, such as the deep Mesoproterozoic Caiabis graben which lies partly beneath the Parecis basin. However, the epicentral distribution indicates that the 1998 and 2005 sequences are related to a N60 degrees E fault which probably crosses the entire Caiabis graben. The 1955 earthquake, despite the uncertainty in its epicentre, does not seem to be directly related to any buried graben either. The seismicity in the Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone, therefore, is not directly related to rifted crust. The probable direction of the maximum horizontal stress near Porto dos Gauchos is roughly E-W, consistent with other focal mechanisms further south in the Pantanal basin and Paraguay. but seems to be different from the NW-SE direction observed further north in the Amazon basin. The recurrent seismicity observed in Porto dos Gauchos, and the large 1955 earthquake nearby, make this area of the Parecis basin one of the most important seismic zones of Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Basement depths in the Parecis Basin (Amazon) with receiver functions from small local earthquakes in the Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone

Receiver functions from small local earthquakes were used to determine sediment thicknesses in Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone (PGSZ), Parecis basin, Amazonian craton, Brazil. The high velocity contrast between basement and sediments (P-wave velocities of 6.1 and 3.0 km/s, respectively) favors the generation of clear P-to-S converted phases (Ps) seen in the radial component, and also S-to-P conversions (Sp) seen in the vertical component. A reference 10 velocity model determined with shallow refraction experiment in PGSZ helped to convert Ps P time differences to basement depths at 15 stations deployed for aftershocks studies. The results of receiver function integrated with the shallow refraction reveal that the basement depths in the PGSZ increases from the basin border in the north up to about 600 m depth in the south. The basement topography, however, does not vary smoothly and a basement high with a steep topography was detected near the epicentral area. A 400 m elevation difference within 1.7 km distance suggests a possible border fault of a buried graben. This feature seems to be oriented roughly WSW-ENE and could indicate basement structures related to the seismicity of the Porto dos Gauchos Seismic Zone. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Foliar cuticular alkanes of Camarea (Malpighiaceae) and their taxonomic significance

Camarea is a South-American endemic genus comprising eight species. In the present work n-alkanes from foliar cuticular waxes of 23 specimens, representing seven species of Camarea were analyzed, aiming at establishing interspecific affinities and evaluating the usefulness of n-alkane distribution as species characteristic. The sampling included also specimens of Peixotoa rericulata and Janusia guaronitica (both Malpighiaceae). The results were used to obtain a phenogram indicating chemical affinities between species. The results are in agreement with morphological similarities among some Camarea species. Intraspecific variability was small, suggesting that n-alkane distribution may be useful for species characterization and establishment of links among Camarea species. The results support the recognition of Camarea triphylla as a synonym of Camarea axillaris and are not coherent with a hybrid condition of a population exhibiting morphological characteristics combining Camarea affinis and Camarea hirsuta, suggesting instead that the individuals analyzed belong either to Camarea hirsuta or a close species. Distribution of n-alkanes is inadequate to distinguish among Malpighiaceae genera: P reticulata has n-alkane distribution similar to several Cumarea species. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological niche modeling and principal component analysis of Krameria Loefl. (Krameriaceae)

Krameria plants are found in arid regions of the Americas and present a floral system that attracts oil-collecting bees. Niche modeling and multivariate tools were applied to examine ecological and geographical aspects of the 18 species of this genus, using occurrence data obtained from herbaria and literature. Niche modeling showed the potential areas of occurrence for each species and the analysis of climatic variables suggested that North American species occur mostly in deserted or xeric ecoregions with monthly precipitation below 140 mm and large temperature ranges. South American species are mainly found in deserted ecoregions and subtropical savannas where monthly precipitation often exceeds 150 mm and temperature ranges are smaller. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) performed with values of temperature and precipitation showed that the distribution limits of Krameria species are primarily associated with maximum and minimum temperatures. Modeling of Krameria species proved to be a useful tool for analyzing the influence of the ecological niche variables in the geographical distribution of species, providing new information to guide future investigations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative Cytogenetics and Molecular Phylogeography in the Group Astyanax altiparanae - Astyanax aff. bimaculatus (Teleostei, Characidae)

The genus Astyanax comprises small characin fish of the neotropical region. The so-called `yellow-tailed characins` compose one of the most widely distributed Astyanax groups. A. altiparanae and A. aff. bimaculatus, are evolutionarily closely related and commonly found in several Brazilian hydrographic basins. In the present work, chromosomal data of specimens of A. altiparanae and A. aff. bimaculatus from 4 hydrographic basins in the states of Sao Paulo (Upper Tiete, Paranapanema, Ribeira de Iguape) and Rio de Janeiro (Guapimirim) are shown. All the populations showed 50 chromosomes, with different karyotypic formula. Although only a single Ag-NOR bearing chromosome pair was observed, all populations possess multiple cistrons of 18S rDNA. FISH with the 5S rDNA probe showed single signals at the interstitial position of one metacentric chromosome pair. C-bands are distributed in the terminal and interstitial regions of several chromosomes. However, the As-51 satDNA are frugally located in a few chromosomes of fishes from Upper Tiete, Paranapanema and Guapimirim Rivers, being absent in individuals of A. aff. bimaculatus from Ribeira de Iguape River basin. Beside these 4 populations, molecular phylogeography studies were also performed in individuals from Middle and Lower Tiete River basin and from 2 additional collection sites in the Paranapanema and Ribeira de Iguape River basins. The phylogeographic analysis using 2 mtDNA regions (totalizing 1.314 bp of ND2 and ATPase6/8 genes) of 8 populations of the group of `yellow-tailed characins` from 3 major hydrographic basins showed structuring of populations, suggesting a correlation between chromosomal (nuclear) and molecular (mitochondrial) data. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Cytotype-specific ISSR profiles and karyotypes in the Neotropical genus Eigenmannia (Teleostei: Gymnotiformes)

The genus Eigenmannia (Teleostei: Gymnotiformes), a widely distributed fish genus from the Neotropical region, presents very complex morphological patterns and many taxonomic problems. It is suggested that this genus harbors a species complex that is hard to differentiate using only morphological characteristics. As a result, many species of Eigenmannia may be currently gathered under a common name. With the objective of providing new tools for species characterization in this group, an analysis of the polymorphism of DNA inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSR), obtained by single primer amplification reaction (SPAR), combined with karyotype identification, was carried out in specimens sampled from populations of the Upper Parana, So Francisco and Amazon river basins (Brazil). Specific ISSR patterns generated by primers (AAGC)(4) and (GGAC)(4) were found to characterize the ten cytotypes analyzed, even though the cytotypes 2n = 38 and 2n = 38 XX:XY, from the Upper Parana basin, share some ISSR amplification patterns. The geographical distribution of all Eigenmannia specimens sampled was inferred, showing the cytotype 2n = 31/2n = 32 as the most frequent and largely distributed in the Upper Parana basin. The cytotype 2n = 34 was reported for the first time in the genus Eigenmania, restricted to the So Francisco basin. Polymorphic ISSR patterns were also detected for each cytotype. Considering our results and the data reported previously in the literature, it is suggested that many of the forms of Eigenmannia herein analyzed might be regarded as different species. This work reinforces the importance of employing diverse approaches, such as molecular and cytogenetic characterization, to address taxonomic and evolutionary issues.