Genometrics as an essential tool for the assembly of whole genome sequences: the example of the chromosome of Bifidobacterium longum NCC2705.

BACKGROUND: Analysis of the first reported complete genome sequence of Bifidobacterium longum NCC2705, an actinobacterium colonizing the gastrointestinal tract, uncovered its proteomic relatedness to Streptomyces coelicolor and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. However, a rapid scrutiny by genometric methods revealed a genome organization totally different from all so far sequenced high-GC Gram-positive chromosomes. RESULTS: Generally, the cumulative GC- and ORF orientation skew curves of prokaryotic genomes consist of two linear segments of opposite slope: the minimum and the maximum of the curves correspond to the origin and the terminus of chromosome replication, respectively. However, analyses of the B. longum NCC2705 chromosome yielded six, instead of two, linear segments, while its dnaA locus, usually associated with the origin of replication, was not located at the minimum of the curves. Furthermore, the coorientation of gene transcription with replication was very low. Comparison with closely related actinobacteria strongly suggested that the chromosome of B. longum was misassembled, and the identification of two pairs of relatively long homologous DNA sequences offers the possibility for an alternative genome assembly proposed here below. By genometric criteria, this configuration displays all of the characters common to bacteria, in particular to related high-GC Gram-positives. In addition, it is compatible with the partially sequenced genome of DJO10A B. longum strain. Recently, a corrected sequence of B. longum NCC2705, with a configuration similar to the one proposed here below, has been deposited in GenBank, confirming our predictions. CONCLUSION: Genometric analyses, in conjunction with standard bioinformatic tools and knowledge of bacterial chromosome architecture, represent fast and straightforward methods for the evaluation of chromosome assembly.

Primary activity measurements with a 4πβ-4πγ coincidence counting system.

The radioactive concentrations of (166m)Ho, (134)Cs and (133)Ba solutions have been standardised using a 4πβ-4πγ coincidence counting system we have recently set up. The detection in the beta channel is performed using various geometries of a UPS-89 plastic scintillator optically coupled to a selected low-noise 1in. diameter photomultiplier tube. The light-tight thin capsule that encloses this beta detector is housed within the well of a 5in.×5in. NaI(Tl) monocrystal detector. The beta detection efficiency can be varied either by optical filtering or electronic discrimination when the electrons loose all their energy in the plastic scintillator. This 4πβ-4πγ coincidence system improves on our 4πβ(PC)-γ system in that its sample preparation is less labour intensive, it yields larger beta- and gamma-counting efficiencies thus enabling the standardisation of low activity sources with good statistics in reasonable time, and it makes standardising short-lived radionuclides easier. The resulting radioactive concentrations of (166m)Ho, (134)Cs and (133)Ba are found to agree with those measured with other primary measurement methods thus validating our 4πβ-4πγ coincidence counting system.

STRATEGIES TO SURPASS THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SMALL ISLAND STATES WITH FEW RESOURCES: THE CASE OF CAPE VERDE

The problem of small Island Developing States (SIDS) is quite recent, end of the 80s and 90s, still looking for a theoretical consolidation. SIDS, as small states in development, formed by one or several islands geographically dispersed, present reduced population, market, territory, natural resources, including drinkable water, and, in great number of the cases, low level of economic activity, factors that together, hinder the gathering of scale economies. To these diseconomies they come to join the more elevated costs in transports and communications which, allies to lower productivities, to a smaller quality and diversification of its productions, which difficult its integration in the world economy. In some SIDS these factors are not dissociating of the few investments in infrastructures, in the formation of human resources and in productive investments, just as it happens in most of the developing countries. In ecological terms, many of them with shortage of natural resources, but integrating important ecosystems in national and world terms, but with great fragility relatively to the pollution action, of excessive fishing, of uncontrolled development of tourism, factors that, conjugated and associated to the stove effect, condition the climate and the slope of the medium level of the sea water and therefore could put in cause the own survival of some of them. The drive to the awareness of the international community towards its problems summed up with the accomplishment by the United Nations in the Barbados’s Conference, 1994 where the right to the development was emphasized, through the going up the appropriate strategies and the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of the SIDS. The orientation of the regional and international cooperation in that sense, sharing technology (namely clean technology and control and administration environmental technology), information and creation of capacity-building, supplying means, including financial resources, creating non discriminatory and just trade rules, it would drive to the establishment of a world system economically more equal, in which the production, the consumption, the pollution levels, the demographic politics were guided towards the sustainability. It constituted an important step for the recognition for the international community on the specificities of those states and it allowed the definition of a group of norms and politics to implement at the national, regional and international level and it was important that they continued in the sense of the sustainable development. But this Conference had in its origin previous summits: the Summit of Rio de Janeiro about Environment and Development, accomplished in 1992, which left an important document - the Agenda 21, in the Conference of Stockholm at 1972 and even in the Conference of Ramsar, 1971 about “Wetlands.” CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS Occasional Papers © CEA - Centro de Estudos Africanos 4 Later, the Valletta Declaration, Malta, 1998, the Forum of Small States, 2002, get the international community's attention for the problems of SIDS again, in the sense that they act to increase its resilience. If the definition of “vulnerability” was the inability of the countries to resist economical, ecological and socially to the external shocks and “resilience” as the potential for them to absorb and minimize the impact of those shocks, presenting a structure that allows them to be little affected by them, a part of the available studies, dated of the 90s, indicate that the SIDS are more vulnerable than the other developing countries. The vulnerability of SIDS results from the fact the they present an assemblage of characteristics that turns them less capable of resisting or they advance strategies that allow a larger resilience to the external shocks, either anthropogenic (economical, financial, environmental) or even natural, connected with the vicissitudes of the nature. If these vulnerability factors were grouped with the expansion of the economic capitalist system at world level, the economic and financial globalisation, the incessant search of growing profits on the part of the multinational enterprises, the technological accelerated evolution drives to a situation of disfavour of the more poor. The creation of the resilience to the external shocks, to the process of globalisation, demands from SIDS and of many other developing countries the endogen definition of strategies and solid but flexible programs of integrated development. These must be assumed by the instituted power, but also by the other stakeholders, including companies and organizations of the civil society and for the population in general. But that demands strong investment in the formation of human resources, in infrastructures, in investigation centres; it demands the creation capacity not only to produce, but also to produce differently and do international marketing. It demands institutional capacity. Cape Verde is on its way to this stage.

A importância da tecnologia da informação e comunicação nas Organizações de Serviços de Contabilidade

Este trabalho tem como foco central demonstrar a importância das Tecnologias da Informação e Comunicação (TIC) na Contabilidade, visando o acréscimo de sua eficiência, e a rapidez dos serviços indispensáveis a uma economia globalizada. O desenvolvimento da TIC trouxe mudanças significativas na elaboração das actividades Contabilísticas, proporcionando maiores ganhos de produtividade e mais eficiência nos seus trabalhos. Entretanto, as Organizações de Serviços de Contabilidade terão sempre a necessidade de acompanhar os avanços da TIC, para atender as necessidades de um mercado cada vez mais exigente. Desse modo, demonstra-se também a importância dos métodos informatizados para atender às exigências legais, à recuperação de informações através dos arquivos electrónicos, o que torna as empresas mais protegidas, visando facilitar as auditorias, confirmar a contribuição da empresa para o desenvolvimento socioeconómico e valorizar a actuação dos Contabilísticas.This work focuses on demonstrating the central importance of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in Accounting, aiming to increase its efficiency, speed of services essential to a globalized economy. The development of ICT has brought about significant changes in the preparation of accounting activities, providing higher productivity gains and greater efficiencies in its work. However, Accounting Services Organizations will always need to monitor the progress of ICT to meet the needs of an increasingly demanding market. Thus, it also demonstrates the importance of computerized methods to meet legal requirements, the recovery of information through the electronic archives, which makes companies more protection, facilitating audits, confirming the company's contribution to the development socio-economic and values the activity of Accounting.

Geology and correlation of the Mersin mélanges, southern Turkey

Our paper aims to give a thorough description of the infra-ophiolitic melanges associated with the Mersin ophiolite. We propose new regional correlations of the Mersin melanges with other melange-like units or similar series, located both in southern Turkey and adjacent regions. The palaeotectonic implications of the correlations are also discussed. The main results may be summarized as follows: the infra-ophiolitic melange is subdivided into two units, the Upper Cretaceous Sorgun ophiolitic melange and the Ladinian-Carnian Hacialani melange. The Mersin melanges, together with the Antalya and Mamonia domains, are represented by a series of exotic units now found south of the main Taurus range, and are characteristic of the South-Taurides Exotic Units. These melanges clearly show the mixed origin of the different blocks and broken formations. Some components have a Palaeotethyan origin and are characterized by Pennsylvanian and Lower to Middle Permian pelagic and slope deposits. These Palaeotethyan remnants, found exclusively in the Hacialani melange, were reworked as major olistostromes in the Neotethys basin during the Eo-Cimmerian orogenic event. Neotethyan elements are represented by Middle Triassic seamounts and by broken formations containing typical Neotethyan conodont faunas such as Metapolygnathus mersinensis Kozur & Moix and M. primitius s. s., both present in the latest Carnian interval, as well as the occurrence of the middle Norian Epigondolella praeslovakensis Kozur, Masset & Moix. Other elements are clearly derived from the former north Anatolian passive margin and are represented by Huglu-type series including the Upper Triassic syn-rift volcanic event. These sequences attributed to the Huglu-Pindos back-arc ocean were displaced southward during the Late Cretaceous obduction event. The Tauric elements are represented by Eo-Cimmerian flysch-like and molasse sequences intercalated in Neotethyan series. Additionally, some shallow-water blocks might be derived from the Bolkardag para-autochthonous and the Taurus-Beydaglari marginal sequences.

Morphostructural analysis of an alpine debris flows catchment: implication for debris supply

Rock slope instabilities are implicitly linked to the supply of sediment and debris recharging channels prone to debris flow. Hence, the incorporation of bedrock structure and terrain morphology can be relevant in the analysis of sediment budget and debris flow hazard assessment. Here, the mode of debris production of the Manival catchment (northern French Alps) is documented by the study of its morphostructural aspects extracted from high resolution DEM. Terrain implication in the process of debris supply is evaluated by: a) A systematic classification of the major morphological units based on the slope gradient that enables a spatial analysis of zones of debris production and deposition. b) A detailed structural analysis performed on DEM in order to identify potential unstable slopes. c) An analysis of the gullies orientation that informs in term of structural control of the sources zones. d) Localisation of high density joints sets that document about whether sources of continuous debris production are controlled by the structural setting of the catchment. These DEM-based indicators can be used as proxies for assessing the influences of the current topography and enable to quantify a degree of susceptibility to mass wasting and hillslope erosion activity. This present contribution suggests some directions for characterizing sediment flux dynamic in small alpine catchment.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Érosion des sols au Cap Vert : étude des processus et quantification à l’échelle de trois bassins versants de l’île de Santiago

Erosão dos solos em Cabo Verde: estudo dos processos e quantificação à escala de três bacias hidrográficas O arquipélago de Cabo Verde é constituído por 10 ilhas vulcânicas pertence à zona do Sahel que se estende do Atlântico ao Mar Vermelho. Desde então, várias décadas, Cabo Verde é afectado pela desertificação causada principalmente pela recessão climatica e a erosão do solo. Esses fatores, aliados à alta pressão humana sobre os recursos, a topografia acidentada e chuvas tropicais por vezes torrenciais, causam sérios danos aos solos. No entanto, desde sua independência em 1975, o Governo realizou um amplo programa de arborização, recuperação de áreas degradadas e a correcção dos leitos das ribeiras. No entanto, a investigação, muito pouco foi realizada para avaliar as acções de protecção e conservação do solo e da água. Portanto, não há dados sobre o problema da degradação das terras nem balanços. Como parte deste trabalho, foram estudados vários factores que controlam a erosão do solo pela água. Especificamente, buscou-se diferenciar os efeitos das actividades humanas, incluindo a agricultura, os factores climáticos, como chuva e geração de escoamento. Também estabeleceu os primeiros balanços das exportações de matérias em suspensão e em solução no contexto do arquipélago de Cabo Verde. O estudo foi realizado em três bacias hidrográficas da ilha de Santiago, Cabo Verde. Estas três bacias hidrográficas (Longueira, Grande e Godim) estão localizadas na parte central da ilha de Santiago e representam os diversos tipos de uso da terra e as diferentes zonas bioclimaticas da ilha. Existe um gradiente climático entre as três bacias hidrográficas. Na verdade, Longueira que abrange uma área de 4,18 km2, tem um declive médio de 47 %, uma zona florestada de 69% e uma área agrícola de 17 %. Grande com uma área de 1,87 km2, é localizada numa zona sub humida com um declive médio de 50%, é essencialmente agrícola. Godim, com uma área de 2,0 km2, é localizado numa zona semi-árida com um declive médio de 32%, é particularmente uma zona agricola. Para estes três bacias hidrográficas, as cheias foram medidas e amostradas de 2004 a 2009. A bacia de Longueira teve um maior acompanhamento, nomeadamente em termos de amostragem e monitoramento dos escoamentos. Em cada amostra foram feitas a determinação da concentração de matérias em suspensão e a análise dos principais elementos quimicos. Os resultados mostram que a erosão mecânica nas três bacias hidrográficas é caracterizada por uma forte variabilidade espacial e temporal. Durante o período de 2005-2009, o balanço anual média para as bacias hidrográficas de Longueira, Grande e Godim é: 4266, 157 e 10,1 t.km2.an-1, respectivamente. A estação das chuvas de 2006 foi a mais erosiva para as três bacias, particularmente em Longueira, com 2 cheias excepcionais, que têm gerado uma concentração média de sólidos em suspensão superior a 100 g / l. Porém, as estações do ano de 2005 e 2008 foram de uma forma geral menos erosivas porque as concentrações médias não inferiores a 20 g / l. Além disso, não houve cheias para as temporadas 2005 e 2007 para a bacia do Godim. Na bacia de Longueira, o estudo dos fenómenos de histerese na caracterização das cheias mostrou que a evolução temporal das exportações de sólidos em suspensão durante a temporada é fortemente influenciada pelas atividades agrícolas. Na verdade, a primeira cheia causou uma exportação maciça de sedimento disponível e localizado no leito da ribeira. Assim, a segunda cheia exportou menos sedimentos. Um mês após as primeiras chuvas, a prática da monda que reduz a densidade da cobertura vegetal e destructura a camada superficial do solo, gerou uma grande quantidade de sedimento que novamente permitiu uma exportação muito forte de sedimentos durante a terceira forte cheia. Os resultados da erosão química na bacia de Longueira indicam que a taxa de erosão é de 45 t.km2.an-1 com uma forte variabilidade temporal. Na verdade, as temporadas de 2006 e 2007 são as mais erosivas, enquanto 2005 teve uma exportação de matérias disolvidas baixa. A utilização do modelo EMMA (End- Members Mixing Analysis) mostra que os escoamentos hipodermico e profundo, alimentandos os fluxos de elementos dissolvidos são os principais factores da erosão química. É mostrado que esses fluxos causam mais de 90% dos fluxos de erosão química. O escoamento superficial, que contribui com cerca de 70% na formação das cheias, é o maior factor da erosão mecânica do solo.

OVERLAND FLOW AND SURFACE RUNOFF / Hydrological Science and Engineering

Cape Verde, off the coast of Senegal in western Africa, is a volcanic archipelago where soil and water conservation techniques play an important role in the overall subsistence of half a million inhabitants. In fact, the step slopes in the more agricultural islands due to it's volcanic origin, together with semi-arid and arid environments (the country is located in the Sahelian region), characterized by a very irregular wet season, with high intensity rainfall events, make life tough. The hard conditions lead during the first half of the XX century to frequent cycles of drought with severe implications on the local populations, with impressive numbers of deaths by famine, and a decrease of the number of local inhabitants by more than halve in some islands. Maintain the soil in place and the water inside the soil was there after a mater of survival, and the CapeVerdians implemented over the last half century a number of soil and water conservation techniques that cover all the landscape. In this work, we monitored a number of slope soil and water conservation techniques, such as terraces, half moons, live barriers, etc, together with two cultural strategies, used to plant corn and beans on one side and peanuts on the other, with a semi-quantitative methodology, to evaluate their effectiveness. A discussion is given on the costs and effectiveness of the techniques to reduce overland flow production and therefore erosion, and to promote rainfall infiltration.

Attribution and reciprocity in a simulated labor market: An experimental investigation

While papers such as Akerlof and Yellen (1990) and Rabin (1993) argue that psychological considerations such as fairness and reciprocity are important in individual decision-making, there is little explicit empirical evidence of reciprocal altruism in economic environments. This paper tests whether attribution of volition in choosing a wage has a significant effect on subsequent costly effort provision. An experiment was conducted in which subjects are first randomly divided into groups of employers and employees. Wages were selected and employees asked to choose an effort level, where increased effort is costly to the employee, but highly beneficial to the employer. The wage-determination process was common knowledge and wages were chosen either by the employer or by an external process. There is evidence for both distributional concerns and reciprocal altruism. The slope of the effort/wage profile is clearly positive in all cases, but is significantly higher when wages are chosen by the employer, offering support for the hypothesis of reciprocity. There are implications for models of utility and a critique of some current models is presented.

Distribuição Espacial da Susceptibilidade à Erosão Hídrica nas Bacias das Ribeiras de Picos e Seca (Santiago, Cabo Verde)

Os processos de erosão hídrica em Cabo Verde são os mais marcantes da dinâmica actual das vertentes, pois são os mais comuns e que afectam áreas extensasdurante a curta estação húmida de três meses. A ocorrência de episódios chuvosos concentrados no tempo e com uma evidente irregularidade espacial permitem umaacentuada erosividade das precipitações, marcada por uma forte irregularidade regional. A forte variabilidade das formas de relevo, a diversidade da natureza das unidadesgeológicas e a multiplicidade de ocupação do solo favorecem condições deerodibilidade muito contrastadas no espaço. O objectivo deste trabalho é estabelecer um modelo desusceptibilidade à erosão hídricaem função de factores geomorfológicos (declive, perfil e traçado das vertentes eerodibilidade das unidades litológicas e dos materiais de cobertura), climáticos(intensidade pluviométrica) e de ocupação do solo para as bacias das ribeiras dos Picose Seca. Os resultados foram obtidos com recurso ao ambiente de Sistemas deInformação Geográfica (SIG). Este trabalho surge na sequência de outros já realizadospelos autores, onde se apresentaram as condições de erodibilidade e erosividade paraáreas mais restritas da Ilha de Santiago. O modelo de susceptibilidade à erosão hídrica resultou do cruzamento dos mapas dedeclives, de perfil e do traçado das vertentes, obtidos a partir do modelo digital deterreno (DTM), do mapa geológico, da distribuição espacial da intensidadepluviométrica e da densidade de ocupação do solo, tendo em conta que são estas asprincipais condicionantes de erosão hídrica, referidas pelos autores que estudaram estaregião. Cada um destes mapas foi reclassificado com base numa análise qualitativa dograu de erodibilidade, sendo atribuído um número de ordem a cada classe, em função da sua susceptibilidade à erosão hídrica, conforme foi localmente reconhecido. Verifica-se que as áreas de maior susceptibilidade à erosão hídrica são as do sectorsudeste da bacia da Ribeira Seca e as vertentes dos principais vales da bacia da Ribeira dos Picos, onde se encontram as unidades geológicas mais friáveis, os declives mais acentuados e onde predominam sectores das vertentes de traçado côncavo, a que seassocia pontualmente a mais elevada intensidade pluviométrica.

Effective Shoulder Design and Maintenance, 2007

Granular shoulders are an important element of the transportation system and are constantly subjected to performance problems due to wind- and water-induced erosion, rutting, edge drop-off, and slope irregularities. Such problems can directly affect drivers’ safety and often require regular maintenance. The present research study was undertaken to investigate the factors contributing to these performance problems and to propose new ideas to design and maintain granular shoulders while keeping ownership costs low. This report includes observations made during a field reconnaissance study, findings from an effort to stabilize the granular and subgrade layer at six shoulder test sections, and the results of a laboratory box study where a shoulder section overlying a soft foundation layer was simulated. Based on the research described in this report, the following changes are proposed to the construction and maintenance methods for granular shoulders: • A minimum CBR value for the granular and subgrade layer should be selected to alleviate edge drop-off and rutting formation. • For those constructing new shoulder sections, the design charts provided in this report can be used as a rapid guide based on an allowable rut depth. The charts can also be used to predict the behavior of existing shoulders. • In the case of existing shoulder sections overlying soft foundations, the use of geogrid or fly ash stabilization proved to be an effective technique for mitigating shoulder rutting.

Long-run substitutability between more and less educated workers: Evidence from U.S. States 1950-1990

We estimate the aggregate long-run elasticity of substitution between more and less educatedworkers (the slope of the demand curve for more relative to less educated workers) at theUS state level. Our data come from the (five)1950-1990 decennial censuses. Our empiricalapproach allows for state and time fixed effects and relies on time and state dependentchild labor and compulsory school attendance laws as instruments for (endogenous) changesin the relative supply of more educated workers. We find the aggregate long-run elasticity ofsubstitution between more and less educated workers to be around 1.5.

An attempt to refine rockfall hazard zoning based on the kinetic energy, frequency and fragmentation degree

Rockfall hazard zoning is usually achieved using a qualitative estimate of hazard, and not an absolute scale. In Switzerland, danger maps, which correspond to a hazard zoning depending on the intensity of the considered phenomenon (e.g. kinetic energy for rockfalls), are replacing hazard maps. Basically, the danger grows with the mean frequency and with the intensity of the rockfall. This principle based on intensity thresholds may also be applied to other intensity threshold values than those used in Switzerland for rockfall hazard zoning method, i.e. danger mapping. In this paper, we explore the effect of slope geometry and rockfall frequency on the rockfall hazard zoning. First, the transition from 2D zoning to 3D zoning based on rockfall trajectory simulation is examined; then, its dependency on slope geometry is emphasized. The spatial extent of hazard zones is examined, showing that limits may vary widely depending on the rockfall frequency. This approach is especially dedicated to highly populated regions, because the hazard zoning has to be very fine in order to delineate the greatest possible territory containing acceptable risks.

Analysis of past and future dam formation and failure in the Santa Cruz River (San Juan province, Argentina)

Around 11.5 * 106 m3 of rock detached from the eastern slope of the Santa Cruz valley (San Juan province, Argentina) in the first fortnight of January 2005. The rockslide?debris avalanche blocked the course, resulting in the development of a lake with maximum length of around 3.5 km. The increase in the inflow rate from 47,000?74,000 m3/d between April and October to 304,000 m3/d between late October and the first fortnight of November, accelerated the growing rate of the lake. On 12 November 2005 the dam failed, releasing 24.6 * 106 m3 of water. The resulting outburst flood caused damages mainly on infrastructure, and affected the facilities of a hydropower dam which was under construction 250 km downstream from the source area. In this work we describe causes and consequences of the natural dam formation and failure, and we dynamically model the 2005 rockslide?debris avalanche with DAN3D. Additionally, as a volume ~ 24 * 106 m3of rocks still remain unstable in the slope, we use the results of the back analysis to forecast the formation of a future natural dam. We analyzed two potential scenarios: a partial slope failure of 6.5 * 106 m3 and a worst case where all the unstable volume remaining in the slope fails. The spreading of those potential events shows that a new blockage of the Santa Cruz River is likely to occur. According to their modeled morphometry and the contributing watershed upstream the blockage area, as the one of 2005, the dams would also be unstable. This study shows the importance of back and forward analysis that can be carried out to obtain critical information for land use planning, hazards mitigation, and emergency management.