Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Second-order elastic finite element analysis of steel structures using a single element per member

Finite element frame analysis programs targeted for design office application necessitate algorithms which can deliver reliable numerical convergence in a practical timeframe with comparable degrees of accuracy, and a highly desirable attribute is the use of a single element per member to reduce computational storage, as well as data preparation and the interpretation of the results. To this end, a higher-order finite element method including geometric non-linearity is addressed in the paper for the analysis of elastic frames for which a single element is used to model each member. The geometric non-linearity in the structure is handled using an updated Lagrangian formulation, which takes the effects of the large translations and rotations that occur at the joints into consideration by accumulating their nodal coordinates. Rigid body movements are eliminated from the local member load-displacement relationship for which the total secant stiffness is formulated for evaluating the large member deformations of an element. The influences of the axial force on the member stiffness and the changes in the member chord length are taken into account using a modified bowing function which is formulated in the total secant stiffness relationship, for which the coupling of the axial strain and flexural bowing is included. The accuracy and efficiency of the technique is verified by comparisons with a number of plane and spatial structures, whose structural response has been reported in independent studies.

Silver absorption on burns after the application of Acticoat : data from pediatric patients and a porcine burn model

Silver dressings have been widely used to successfully prevent burn wound infection and sepsis. However, a few case studies have reported the functional abnormality and failure of vital organs, possibly caused by silver deposits. The aim of this study was to investigate the serum silver level in the pediatric burn population and also in several internal organs in a porcine burn model after the application of Acticoat. A total of 125 blood samples were collected from 46 pediatric burn patients. Thirty-six patients with a mean of 13.4% TBSA burns had a mean peak serum silver level of 114 microg/L, whereas 10 patients with a mean of 1.85% TBSA burns had an undetectable level of silver (<5.4 microg/L). Overall, serum silver levels were closely related to burn sizes. However, the highest serum silver was 735 microg/L in a 15-month-old toddler with 10% TBSA burns and the second highest was 367 microg/L in a 3-year old with 28% TBSA burns. In a porcine model with 2% TBSA burns, the mean peak silver level was 38 microg/L at 2 to 3 weeks after application of Acticoat and was then significantly reduced to an almost undetectable level at 6 weeks. Of a total of four pigs, silver was detected in all four livers (1.413 microg/g) and all four hearts (0.342 microg/g), three of four kidneys (1.113 microg/g), and two of four brains (0.402 microg/g). This result demonstrated that although variable, the level of serum silver was positively associated with the size of burns, and significant amounts of silver were deposited in internal organs in pigs with only 2% TBSA burns, after application of Acticoat.

Perioperative medication management: expanding the role of the preadmission clinic pharmacist in a single centre, randomised controlled trial of collaborative prescribing

Objectives Current evidence to support non-medical prescribing is predominantly qualitative, with little evaluation of accuracy, safety and appropriateness. Our aim was to evaluate a new model of service for the Australia healthcare system, of inpatient medication prescribing by a pharmacist in an elective surgery preadmission clinic (PAC) against usual care, using an endorsed performance framework. Design Single centre, randomised controlled, two-arm trial. Setting Elective surgery PAC in a Brisbane-based tertiary hospital. Participants 400 adults scheduled for elective surgery were randomised to intervention or control. Intervention A pharmacist generated the inpatient medication chart to reflect the patient's regular medication, made a plan for medication perioperatively and prescribed venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis. In the control arm, the medication chart was generated by the Resident Medical Officers. Outcome measures Primary outcome was frequency of omissions and prescribing errors when compared against the medication history. The clinical significance of omissions was also analysed. Secondary outcome was appropriateness of VTE prophylaxis prescribing. Results There were significantly less unintended omissions of medications: 11 of 887 (1.2%) intervention orders compared with 383 of 1217 (31.5%) control (p<0.001). There were significantly less prescribing errors involving selection of drug, dose or frequency: 2 in 857 (0.2%) intervention orders compared with 51 in 807 (6.3%) control (p<0.001). Orders with at least one component of the prescription missing, incorrect or unclear occurred in 208 of 904 (23%) intervention orders and 445 of 1034 (43%) controls (p<0.001). VTE prophylaxis on admission to the ward was appropriate in 93% of intervention patients and 90% controls (p=0.29). Conclusions Medication charts in the intervention arm contained fewer clinically significant omissions, and prescribing errors, when compared with controls. There was no difference in appropriateness of VTE prophylaxis on admission between the two groups.

Alcohol ingestion impairs maximal post-exercise rates of myofibrillar protein synthesis following a single bout of concurrent training

Introduction The culture in many team sports involves consumption of large amounts of alcohol after training/competition. The effect of such a practice on recovery processes underlying protein turnover in human skeletal muscle are unknown. We determined the effect of alcohol intake on rates of myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) following strenuous exercise with carbohydrate (CHO) or protein ingestion. Methods In a randomized cross-over design, 8 physically active males completed three experimental trials comprising resistance exercise (8×5 reps leg extension, 80% 1 repetition maximum) followed by continuous (30 min, 63% peak power output (PPO)) and high intensity interval (10×30 s, 110% PPO) cycling. Immediately, and 4 h post-exercise, subjects consumed either 500 mL of whey protein (25 g; PRO), alcohol (1.5 g·kg body mass−1, 12±2 standard drinks) co-ingested with protein (ALC-PRO), or an energy-matched quantity of carbohydrate also with alcohol (25 g maltodextrin; ALC-CHO). Subjects also consumed a CHO meal (1.5 g CHO·kg body mass−1) 2 h post-exercise. Muscle biopsies were taken at rest, 2 and 8 h post-exercise. Results Blood alcohol concentration was elevated above baseline with ALC-CHO and ALC-PRO throughout recovery (P<0.05). Phosphorylation of mTORSer2448 2 h after exercise was higher with PRO compared to ALC-PRO and ALC-CHO (P<0.05), while p70S6K phosphorylation was higher 2 h post-exercise with ALC-PRO and PRO compared to ALC-CHO (P<0.05). Rates of MPS increased above rest for all conditions (~29–109%, P<0.05). However, compared to PRO, there was a hierarchical reduction in MPS with ALC-PRO (24%, P<0.05) and with ALC-CHO (37%, P<0.05). Conclusion We provide novel data demonstrating that alcohol consumption reduces rates of MPS following a bout of concurrent exercise, even when co-ingested with protein. We conclude that alcohol ingestion suppresses the anabolic response in skeletal muscle and may therefore impair recovery and adaptation to training and/or subsequent performance.

From single crystal surfaces to single atoms : investigating active sites in electrocatalysis

Electrocatalytic processes will undoubtedly be at the heart of energising future transportation and technology with the added importance of being able to create the necessary fuels required to do so in an environmentally friendly and cost effective manner. For this to be successful two almost mutually exclusive surface properties need to be reconciled, namely producing highly active/reactive surface sites that exhibit long term stability. This article reviews the various approaches which have been undertaken to study the elusive nature of these active sites on metal surfaces which are considered as adatoms or clusters of adatoms with low coordination number. This includes the pioneering studies at extended well defined stepped single crystal surfaces using cyclic voltammetry up to the highly sophisticated in situ electrochemical imaging techniques used to study chemically synthesised nanomaterials. By combining the information attained from single crystal surfaces, individual nanoparticles of defined size and shape, density functional theory calculations and new concepts such as mesoporous multimetallic thin films and single atom electrocatalysts new insights into the design and fabrication of materials with highly active but stable active sites can be achieved. The area of electrocatalysis is therefore not only a fascinating and exciting field in terms of realistic technological and economical benefits but also from the fundamental understanding that can be acquired by studying such an array of interesting materials.

Photodissociation of TEMPO-modified peptides: New approaches to radical-directed dissociation of biomolecules

Radical-directed dissociation of gas phase ions is emerging as a powerful and complementary alternative to traditional tandem mass spectrometric techniques for biomolecular structural analysis. Previous studies have identified that coupling of 2-[(2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidin-1-oxyl)methyl] benzoic acid (TEMPO-Bz) to the N-terminus of a peptide introduces a labile oxygen-carbon bond that can be selectively activated upon collisional activation to produce a radical ion. Here we demonstrate that structurally-defined peptide radical ions can also be generated upon UV laser photodissociation of the same TEMPO-Bz derivatives in a linear ion-trap mass spectrometer. When subjected to further mass spectrometric analyses, the radical ions formed by a single laser pulse undergo identical dissociations as those formed by collisional activation of the same precursor ion, and can thus be used to derive molecular structure. Mapping the initial radical formation process as a function of photon energy by photodissociation action spectroscopy reveals that photoproduct formation is selective but occurs only in modest yield across the wavelength range (300-220 nm), with the photoproduct yield maximised between 235 and 225 nm. Based on the analysis of a set of model compounds, structural modifications to the TEMPO-Bz derivative are suggested to optimise radical photoproduct yield. Future development of such probes offers the advantage of increased sensitivity and selectivity for radical-directed dissociation. © 2014 the Owner Societies.

Raising Children in Single-Parent Families

Children from single-parent families fare more poorly on multiple outcomes than those in two-parent families. Most explanations for these differences assume that compromised parenting and parent mental health play a central role. This chapter explores the contribution of a range of factors to the parenting and mental health of single mothers using data from approximately 1000 Australian single mothers with a child aged 4–5 or 8–9 years. The findings show that single mothers are more likely than couple mothers to experience parenting and mental health difficulties; however, they also face heightened adversity in their home and extra-familial environments. Importantly, this comparison of single and couple mothers facing similar levels of adversity shows no difference in poor parenting practices, although single mothers remain more vulnerable to psychological distress. These findings have policy implications since they challenge the prevailing view that single-parent families inherently provide sub-optimal environments for raising children.

Direct lipid profiling of single cells from inkjet printed microarrays

The on-demand printing of living cells using inkjet technologies has recently been demonstrated and allows for the controlled deposition of cells in microarrays. Here, we show that such arrays can be interrogated directly by robot-controlled liquid microextraction coupled with chip-based nanoelectospray mass spectrometry. Such automated analyses generate a profile of abundant membrane lipids that are characteristic of cell type. Significantly, the spatial control in both deposition and extraction steps combined with the sensitivity of the mass spectrometric detection allows for robust molecular profiling of individual cells. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

Analysis of strain-rate dependent mechanical behavior of single chondrocyte : a finite element study

Various studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of impact loading on cartilage damage and chondrocyte death. These have shown that the rate and magnitude of the applied strain significantly influence chondrocyte death, and that cell death occurred mostly in the superficial zone of cartilage suggesting the need to further understand the fundamental mechanisms underlying the chondrocytes death induced at certain levels of strain-rate. To date there is no comprehensive study providing insight on this phenomenon. The aim of this study is to examine the strain-rate dependent behavior of a single chondrocyte using a computational approach based on Finite Element Method (FEM). An FEM model was developed using various mechanical models, which were Standard Neo-Hookean Solid (SnHS), porohyperelastic (PHE) and poroviscohyperelastic (PVHE) to simulate Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) experiments of chondrocyte. The PVHE showed, it can capture both relaxation and loading rate dependent behaviors of chondrocytes, accurately compared to other models.

Encapsulation of nanoparticles into single-crystal ZnO nanorods and microrods

One-dimensional single crystal incorporating functional nanoparticles of other materials could be an interesting platform for various applications. We studied the encapsulation of nanoparticles into single-crystal ZnO nanorods by exploiting the crystal growth of ZnO in aqueous solution. Two types of nanodiamonds with mean diameters of 10 nm and 40 nm, respectively, and polymer nanobeads with size of 200 nm have been used to study the encapsulation process. It was found that by regrowing these ZnO nanorods with nanoparticles attached to their surfaces, a full encapsulation of nanoparticles into nanorods can be achieved. We demonstrate that our low-temperature aqueous solution growth of ZnO nanorods do not affect or cause degradation of the nanoparticles of either inorganic or organic materials. This new growth method opens the way to a plethora of applications combining the properties of single crystal host and encapsulated nanoparticles. We perform micro-photoluminescence measurement on a single ZnO nanorod containing luminescent nanodiamonds and the spectrum has a different shape from that of naked nanodiamonds, revealing the cavity effect of ZnO nanorod.

A multi-genome analysis approach enables tracking of the invasion of a single Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia) clone throughout the New World

This study investigated the population genetics, demographic history and pathway of invasion of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA) from its native range in Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe to South Africa and the Americas. We screened microsatellite markers, mitochondrial DNA and endosymbiont genes in 504 RWA clones from nineteen populations worldwide. Following pathway analyses of microsatellite and endosymbiont data, we postulate that Turkey and Syria were the most likely sources of invasion to Kenya and South Africa, respectively. Furthermore, we found that one clone transferred between South Africa and the Americas was most likely responsible for the New World invasion. Finally, endosymbiont DNA was found to be a high resolution population genetic marker, extremely useful for studies of invasion over a relatively short evolutionary history time frame. This study has provided valuable insights into the factors that may have facilitated the recent global invasion by this damaging pest.

Second-order elastic finite element analysis of structures using a single element per member

Finite element frame analysis programs targeted for design office application necessitate algorithms which can deliver reliable numerical convergence in a practical timeframe with comparable degrees of accuracy, and a highly desirable attribute is the use of a single element per member to reduce computational storage, as well as data preparation and the interpretation of the results. To this end, a higher-order finite element method including geometric non-linearity is addressed in the paper for the analysis of elastic frames for which a single element is used to model each member. The geometric non-linearity in the structure is handled using an updated Lagrangian formulation, which takes the effects of the large translations and rotations that occur at the joints into consideration by accumulating their nodal coordinates. Rigid body movements are eliminated from the local member load-displacement relationship for which the total secant stiffness is formulated for evaluating the large member deformations of an element. The influences of the axial force on the member stiffness and the changes in the member chord length are taken into account using a modified bowing function which is formulated in the total secant stiffness relationship, for which the coupling of the axial strain and flexural bowing is included.

Short-term single treatment of chemotherapy results in the enrichment of ovarian cancer stem cell-like cells leading to an increased tumor burden

Over 80% of women diagnosed with advanced-stage ovarian cancer die as a result of disease recurrence due to failure of chemotherapy treatment. In this study, using two distinct ovarian cancer cell lines (epithelial OVCA 433 and mesenchymal HEY) we demonstrate enrichment in a population of cells with high expression of CSC markers at the protein and mRNA levels in response to cisplatin, paclitaxel and the combination of both. We also demonstrate a significant enhancement in the sphere forming abilities of ovarian cancer cells in response to chemotherapy drugs. The results of these in vitro findings are supported by in vivo mouse xenograft models in which intraperitoneal transplantation of cisplatin or paclitaxel-treated residual HEY cells generated significantly higher tumor burden compared to control untreated cells. Both the treated and untreated cells infiltrated the organs of the abdominal cavity. In addition, immunohistochemical studies on mouse tumors injected with cisplatin or paclitaxel treated residual cells displayed higher staining for the proliferative antigen Ki67, oncogeneic CA125, epithelial E-cadherin as well as cancer stem cell markers such as Oct4 and CD117, compared to mice injected with control untreated cells. These results suggest that a short-term single treatment of chemotherapy leaves residual cells that are enriched in CSC-like traits, resulting in an increased metastatic potential. The novel findings in this study are important in understanding the early molecular mechanisms by which chemoresistance and subsequent relapse may be triggered after the first line of chemotherapy treatment.