Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Samuel Beckett, the Gate Theatre Dublin, and the contemporary Irish independent theater sector: fragments of performance history

From 1991, when the Dublin Gate Theatre launched their Samuel Beckett Festival featuring nineteen of Beckett’s stage plays, to more recent years, the Gate dominated Irish productions of Beckett’s theater. The Gate Beckett Festival was remounted in 1996 at the Lincoln Center, New York, and at the Barbican Centre, London, in 1999, and individual or grouped productions have toured regularly since then in Ireland and internationally. However, since the Irish premiere of Waiting of Godot at the Pike Theatre in 1955, in addition to several Beckett plays mounted by the National Theatre, many independent Irish theater companies, such as Focus Theatre, Druid Theatre, and more recently Pan Pan Theatre, Blue Raincoat Theatre, The Corn Exchange, and Company SJ (under director Sarah Jane Scaife), have produced Beckett’s drama. While acknowledging earlier Irish productions, this essay will consider the role of the Dublin Gate Beckett Festival and the Beckett Centenary celebrations in Dublin in 2006 in greatly enhancing the marketability of Beckett’s work, and will discuss the proliferation of productions of Beckett’s stage plays (as opposed to stage adaptations of the prose work, which is a topic for another essay) in the independent theater sector in the Republic of Ireland since 2006. In addition to giving an overview of these recent productions, the essay will consider some issues at stake in creating or constructing performance histories

Ventilation performance in a passage between two non-parallel buildings

A great number of studies on wind conditions in passages between slab-type buildings have been conducted in the past. However, wind conditions under different structure and configuration of buildings is still unclear and studies existed still can’t provide guidance on urban planning and design, due to the complexity of buildings and aerodynamics. The aim of this paper is to provide more insight in the mechanism of wind conditions in passages. In this paper, a simplified passage model with non-parallel buildings is developed on the basis of the wind tunnel experiments conducted by Blocken et al. (2008). Numerical simulation based on CFD is employed for a detailed investigation of the wind environment in passages between two long narrow buildings with different directions and model validation is performed by comparing numerical results with corresponding wind tunnel measurements.

Investigation of discrepancies in satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopia

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall estimates are used extensively across Africa for operational rainfall monitoring and food security applications; thus, regional evaluations of TAMSAT are essential to ensure its reliability. This study assesses the performance of TAMSAT rainfall estimates, along with the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC), version 2; the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product; and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), against a dense rain gauge network over a mountainous region of Ethiopia. Overall, TAMSAT exhibits good skill in detecting rainy events but underestimates rainfall amount, while ARC underestimates both rainfall amount and rainy event frequency. Meanwhile, TRMM consistently performs best in detecting rainy events and capturing the mean rainfall and seasonal variability, while CMORPH tends to overdetect rainy events. Moreover, the mean difference in daily rainfall between the products and rain gauges shows increasing underestimation with increasing elevation. However, the distribution in satellite–gauge differences demon- strates that although 75% of retrievals underestimate rainfall, up to 25% overestimate rainfall over all eleva- tions. Case studies using high-resolution simulations suggest underestimation in the satellite algorithms is likely due to shallow convection with warm cloud-top temperatures in addition to beam-filling effects in microwave- based retrievals from localized convective cells. The overestimation by IR-based algorithms is attributed to nonraining cirrus with cold cloud-top temperatures. These results stress the importance of understanding re- gional precipitation systems causing uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimates with a view toward using this knowledge to improve rainfall algorithms.

The nature of impairments of memory in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD)

Possible impairments of memory in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were investigated in two experiments. In Experiment 1, in which stimulus words were presented visually, participants were tested on conceptual or perceptual memory tasks, with retrieval being either explicit or implicit. Compared with healthy controls, ESRD patients were impaired when memory required conceptual but not when it required perceptual processing, regardless of whether retrieval was explicit or implicit. An impairment of conceptual implicit memory (priming) in the ESRD group represented a previously unreported deficit compared to healthy aging. There were no significant differences between pre- and immediate post-dialysis memory performance in ESRD patients on any of the tasks. In Experiment 2, in which presentation was auditory, patients again performed worse than controls on an explicit conceptual memory task. We conclude that the type of processing required by the task (conceptual vs. perceptual) is more important than the type of retrieval (explicit vs. implicit) in memory failures in ESRD patients, perhaps because temporal brain regions are more susceptible to the effects of the illness than are posterior regions.

Improving productivity and water use efficiency: a case study of farms in England

The idea of Sustainable Intensification comes as a response to the challenge of avoiding resources such as land, water and energy being overexploited while increasing food production for an increasing demand from a growing global population. Sustainable Intensification means that farmers need to simultaneously increase yields and sustainably use limited natural resources, such as water. Within the agricultural sector water has a number of uses including irrigation, spraying, drinking for livestock and washing (vegetables, livestock buildings). In order to achieve Sustainable Intensification measures are needed that enable policy makers and managers to inform them about the relative performance of farms as well as of possible ways to improve such performance. We provide a benchmarking tool to assess water use (relative) efficiency at a farm level, suggest pathways to improve farm level productivity by identifying best practices for reducing excessive use of water for irrigation. Data Envelopment Analysis techniques including analysis of returns to scale were used to evaluate any excess in agricultural water use of 66 Horticulture Farms based on different River Basin Catchments across England. We found that farms in the sample can reduce on average water requirements by 35% to achieve the same output (Gross Margin) when compared to their peers on the frontier. In addition, 47% of the farms operate under increasing returns to scale, indicating that farms will need to develop economies of scale to achieve input cost savings. Regarding the adoption of specific water use efficiency management practices, we found that the use of a decision support tool, recycling water and the installation of trickle/drip/spray lines irrigation system has a positive impact on water use efficiency at a farm level whereas the use of other irrigation systems such as the overhead irrigation system was found to have a negative effect on water use efficiency.

Role of ligands in catalytic water oxidation by mononuclear ruthenium complexes

Since first reported in 2005, mononuclear ruthenium water oxidation catalysts have attracted a great deal of attention due to their catalytic performance and synthetic flexibility. In particular, ligands coordinated to a Ru metal centre play an important role in the catalytic mechanisms, exhibiting significant impact on catalyst efficiency, stability and activity towards water oxidation. This review focuses on finding possible correlations between the ligand effects and activity of mononuclear Ru aqua and non-aqua complexes as water oxidation catalysts. The ligand effects highlighted in the text include the electronic nature of core ligands and their substituents, the trans–cis effect, steric hindrance and the strain effect, the net charge effect, the geometric arrangement of the aqua ligand and the supramolecular effects, e.g., hydrogen bonding and influence of a pendant base. The outcome is not always obvious at the present knowledge level. Deeper understanding of the ligand effects, based on new input data, is mandatory for further progress towards a rational development of novel catalysts featuring enhanced activity in water oxidation.

Verbal short‐term memory performance in pupils with Down Syndrome

Research has shown that verbal short‐term memory span is shorter in individuals with Down syndrome than in typically developing individuals of equivalent mental age, but little attention has been given to variations within or across groups. Differences in the environment and in particular educational experiences may play a part in the relative ease or difficulty with which children remember verbal material. This article explores the performance of 26 Egyptian pupils with Down syndrome and 26 Egyptian typically developing children on two verbal short‐term memory tests: digit recall and non‐word repetition tasks. The findings of the study revealed that typically developing children showed superior performance on these tasks to that of pupils with Down syndrome, whose performance was both lower and revealed a narrower range of attainment. Comparisons with the performance of children with Down syndrome in this study suggested that not only did the children with Down syndrome perform more poorly than the typically developing children, their profile also appeared worse than the results of studies of children with a similar mental age with Down syndrome carried out in western countries. The results from this study suggested that, while deficits in verbal short‐term memory in Down syndrome may well be universal, it is important to recognise that performances may vary as a consequence of culture and educational experiences. The significance of these findings is explored with reference to approaches to education and how these are conceptualised in relation to children with disabilities.

Modeling bidding competitiveness and position performance in multi-attribute construction auctions

Currently, multi-attribute auctions are becoming widespread awarding mechanisms for contracts in construction, and in these auctions, criteria other than price are taken into account for ranking bidder proposals. Therefore, being the lowest-price bidder is no longer a guarantee of being awarded, thus increasing the importance of measuring any bidder’s performance when not only the first position (lowest price) matters. Modeling position performance allows a tender manager to calculate the probability curves related to the more likely positions to be occupied by any bidder who enters a competitive auction irrespective of the actual number of future participating bidders. This paper details a practical methodology based on simple statistical calculations for modeling the performance of a single bidder or a group of bidders, constituting a useful resource for analyzing one’s own success while benchmarking potential bidding competitors.

The role of text in televideo cybersex

Televideo cybersex provides a unique example of the ways meanings are instantiated, identities constructed, and relationships negotiated across different semiotic modes. This article explores the role of verbal messages in these multimodal exchanges, examining the specific interactional functions they perform. Text, it is argued, plays a rather unique role in this particular kind of interaction. Unlike ordinary face-to-face conversation, in which the body (posture, gestures, gaze) usually plays more of an ancillary role, in televideo cybersex, the bodily performance is primary, with verbal messages functioning to contextualize physical actions. Text is used to help increase the sense of ‘presence’ participants feel, to regulate the rhythm of the unfolding interaction, to help manage the orderly exchange of information, and to create narrative frames within which bodily displays can be interpreted and made coherent.

Cool roofs for passive cooling: performance in different climates and for different insulation levels in Italy

Roofs are severely hit by solar radiation in summer; hence the use of cool materials on the finishing layer provides a significant reduction in the heat flow entering the building, with sensible attenuation in the building cooling load. In this paper, a case study is presented, based on the dynamic simulation of an existing office building in Catania (southern Italy). Here, a part of the roof has been recently treated with a commercial cool paint, with the aim of improving thermal comfort in summer. Hence, the simulations represent a preliminary study that will allow assessing the expected effectiveness of the intervention. More in detail, the results of the simulations will be discussed in terms of both thermal comfort and energy savings, through the evaluation of parameters such as the roof surface temperature, the operative temperature and the cooling load for both conditions, i.e. with and without the cool paint. The paper also discusses the potential increase in the energy needs for winter heating, and looks at the overall annual balance in terms of primary energy; this is made by considering different climatic conditions and envelope characteristics. These aspects are usually not well highlighted in the current scientific literature.

Evaluation of thermal simulation of households in the metropolitan region of So Paulo, Brazil

This paper aims at assessing the performance of a program of thermal simulation (Arquitrop) in different households in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The households were selected for the Wheezing Project which followed up children under 2 years old to monitor the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The results show that in all three study households there is a good approximation between the observed and the simulated indoor temperatures. It was also observed a fairly consistent and realistic behavior between the simulated indoor and the outdoor temperatures, describing the Arquitrop model as an efficient estimator and good representative of the thermal behavior of households in the city of Sao Paulo. The worst simulation is linked to the poorest type of construction. This may be explained by the bad quality of the construction, which the Architrop could not simulate adequately.

Intake, water consumption, ruminal fermentation, and stress response of beef heifers fed after different lengths of delays in the daily feed delivery time

Four rumen-fistulated Holstein heifers (134 +/- 1 kg initial BW) were used in a 4 x 4 Latin square design to determine the effects of delaying daily feed delivery time on intake, ruminal fermentation, behavior, and stress response. Each 3-wk experimental period was preceded by 1 wk in which all animals were fed at 0800 h. Feed bunks were cleaned at 0745 h and feed offered at 0800 h (T0, no delay), 0900 (T1), 1000 (T2), and 1100 (T3) from d1 to 21 with measurements taken during wk 1 and 3. Heifers were able to see each other at all times. Concentrate and barley straw were offered in separate compartments of the feed bunks, once daily and for ad libitum intake. Ruminal pH and saliva cortisol concentrations were measured at 0, 4, 8, and 12 h postfeeding on d 3 and 17 of each experimental period. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were measured on d 17. Increasing length of delay in daily feed delivery time resulted in a quadratic response in concentrate DMI (low in T1 and T2; P = 0.002), whereas straw DMI was greatest in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.03). Treatments affected the distribution of DMI within the day with a linear decrease observed between 0800 and 1200 h but a linear increase during nighttimes (2000 to 0800 h), whereas T1 and T2 had reduced DMI between 1200 and 1600 h (quadratic P = 0.04). Water consumption (L/d) was not affected but decreased linearly when expressed as liters per kilogram of DMI (P = 0.01). Meal length was greatest and eating rate slowest in T1 and T2 (quadratic P <= 0.001). Size of the first meal after feed delivery was reduced in T1 on d 1 (cubic P = 0.05) and decreased linearly on d 2 (P = 0.01) after change. Concentrate eating and drinking time (shortest in T1) and straw eating time (longest in T1) followed a cubic trend (P = 0.02). Time spent lying down was shortest and ruminating in standing position longest in T1 and T2. Delay of feeding time resulted in greater daily maximum salivary cortisol concentration (quadratic P = 0.04), which was greatest at 0 h in T1 and at 12 h after feeding in T2 (P < 0.05). Daily mean fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were greatest in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.04). Ruminal pH showed a treatment effect at wk 1 because of increased values in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.01). Delaying feed delivery time was not detrimental for rumen function because a stress response was triggered, which led to reduced concentrate intake, eating rate, and size of first meal, and increased straw intake. Increased salivary cortisol suggests that animal welfare is compromised.

Role of CcpA in Polyhydroxybutyrate Biosynthesis in a Newly Isolated Bacillus sp MA3.3

The ccpA gene was inactivated in the polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB)-producing strain Bacillus sp. MA3.3 in order to reduce glucose catabolite repression over pentoses and develop improved bacterial strains for the production of PHB from lignocellulosic hydrolysates. Mutant Bacillus sp. MSL7 Delta CcpA are unable to grow on glucose and ammonia as sole carbon and nitrogen sources, respectively. Supplementation of glutamate as the nitrogen source or the substitution of the carbon source by xylose allowed the mutant to partially recover its growth performance. RT-PCR showed that CcpA stimulates the expression of the operon (gltAB), responsible for ammonia assimilation via glutamate in Bacillus sp. MA3.3. Moreover, it was demonstrated that the supplementation of xylose or glutamate was capable of stimulating gltAB operon expression independently of CcpA. In PHB production experiments in mineral media, it has been observed that the glucose catabolite repression over the pentoses was partially released in MSL7. Although the carbohydrate consumption is faster in the ccpA mutant, the biomass and PHB biosynthesis are lower, even with supplementation of glutamate. This is attributed to an increase of acetyl-CoA flux towards the tricarboxylic acid cycle observed in the mutant. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

On the influence of imputation in classification: practical issues

The substitution of missing values, also called imputation, is an important data preparation task for many domains. Ideally, the substitution of missing values should not insert biases into the dataset. This aspect has been usually assessed by some measures of the prediction capability of imputation methods. Such measures assume the simulation of missing entries for some attributes whose values are actually known. These artificially missing values are imputed and then compared with the original values. Although this evaluation is useful, it does not allow the influence of imputed values in the ultimate modelling task (e.g. in classification) to be inferred. We argue that imputation cannot be properly evaluated apart from the modelling task. Thus, alternative approaches are needed. This article elaborates on the influence of imputed values in classification. In particular, a practical procedure for estimating the inserted bias is described. As an additional contribution, we have used such a procedure to empirically illustrate the performance of three imputation methods (majority, naive Bayes and Bayesian networks) in three datasets. Three classifiers (decision tree, naive Bayes and nearest neighbours) have been used as modelling tools in our experiments. The achieved results illustrate a variety of situations that can take place in the data preparation practice.