852 resultados para Simulated Contractions
Resumo:
The ultimate goal of periodontal tissue engineering is to produce predictable regeneration of alveolar bone, root cementum, and periodontal ligament, which are lost as a result of periodontal diseases. To achieve this goal, it is of great importance to develop novel bioactive materials which could stimulate the proliferation, differentiation and osteogenic/cementogenic gene expression of periodontal ligament cells (PDLCs) for periodontal regeneration. In this study, we synthesized novel Ca7Si2P2O16 ceramic powders for the first time by the sol–gel method and investigated the biological performance of PDLCs after exposure to different concentrations of Ca7Si2P2O16 extracts. The original extracts were prepared at 200 mg ml-1 and further diluted with serum-free cell culture medium to obtain a series of diluted extracts (100, 50, 25, 12.5 and 6.25 mg ml–1). Proliferation, alkaline phosphatase(ALP) activity, Ca deposition, and osteogenesis/cementogenesis-related gene expression (ALP, Col I, Runx2 and CEMP1) were assayed for PDLCs on days 7 and 14. The results showed that the ionic products from Ca7Si2P2O16 powders significantly stimulated the proliferation, ALP activity, Ca deposition and osteogenesis/cementogenesisrelated gene expression of PDLCs. In addition, it was found that Ca7Si2P2O16 powders had excellent apatite-mineralization ability in simulated body fluids. This study demonstrated that Ca7Si2P2O16 powders with such a specific composition possess the ability to stimulate the PDLC proliferation and osteoblast/cemenoblast-like cell differentiation, indicating that they are a promising bioactive material for periodontal tissue regeneration application.
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The demand for high-speed data services for portable device has become a driving force for development of advanced broadband access technologies. Despite recent advances in broadband wireless technologies, there remain a number of critical issues to be resolved. One of the major concerns is the implementation of compact antennas that can operate in a wide frequency band. Spiral antenna has been used extensively for broadband applications due to its planar structure, wide bandwidth characteristics and circular polarisation. However, the practical implementation of spiral antennas is challenged by its high input characteristic impedance, relatively low gain and the need for balanced feeding structures. Further development of wideband balanced feeding structures for spiral antennas with matching impedance capabilities remain a need. This thesis proposes three wideband feeding systems for spiral antennas which are compatible with wideband array antenna geometries. First, a novel tapered geometry is proposed for a symmetric coplanar waveguide (CPW) to coplanar strip line (CPS) wideband balun. This balun can achieve the unbalanced to balanced transformation while matching the high input impedance of the antenna to a reference impedance of 50 . The discontinuity between CPW and CPS is accommodated by using a radial stub and bond wires. The bandwidth of the balun is improved by appropriately tapering the CPW line instead of using a stepped impedance transformer. Next, the tapered design is applied to an asymmetric CPW to propose a novel asymmetric CPW to CPS wideband balun. The use of asymmetric CPW does away with the discontinuities between CPW and CPS without having to use a radial stub or bond wires. Finally, a tapered microstrip line to parallel striplines balun is proposed. The balun consists of two sections. One section is the parallel striplines which are connected to the antenna, with the impedance of balanced line equal to the antenna input impedance. The other section consists of a microstrip line where the width of the ground plane is gradually reduced to eventually resemble a parallel stripline. The taper accomplishes the mode and impedance transformation. This balun has significantly improved bandwidth characteristics. Characteristics of proposed feeding structures are measured in a back-to-back configuration and compared to simulated results. The simulated and measured results show the tapered microstrip to parallel striplines balun to have more than three octaves of bandwidth. The tapered microstrip line to parallel striplines balun is integrated with a single Archimedean spiral antenna and with an array of spiral antennas. The performance of the integrated structures is simulated with the aid of electromagnetic simulation software, and results are compared to measurements. The back-to-back microstrip to parallel strip balun has a return loss of better than 10 dB over a wide bandwidth from 1.75 to 15 GHz. The performance of the microstrip to parallel strip balun was validated with the spiral antennas. The results show the balun to be an effective mean of feeding network with a low profile and wide bandwidth (2.5 to 15 GHz) for balanced spiral antennas.
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The design of pre-contoured fracture fixation implants (plates and nails) that correctly fit the anatomy of a patient utilises 3D models of long bones with accurate geometric representation. 3D data is usually available from computed tomography (CT) scans of human cadavers that generally represent the above 60 year old age group. Thus, despite the fact that half of the seriously injured population comes from the 30 year age group and below, virtually no data exists from these younger age groups to inform the design of implants that optimally fit patients from these groups. Hence, relevant bone data from these age groups is required. The current gold standard for acquiring such data–CT–involves ionising radiation and cannot be used to scan healthy human volunteers. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been shown to be a potential alternative in the previous studies conducted using small bones (tarsal bones) and parts of the long bones. However, in order to use MRI effectively for 3D reconstruction of human long bones, further validations using long bones and appropriate reference standards are required. Accurate reconstruction of 3D models from CT or MRI data sets requires an accurate image segmentation method. Currently available sophisticated segmentation methods involve complex programming and mathematics that researchers are not trained to perform. Therefore, an accurate but relatively simple segmentation method is required for segmentation of CT and MRI data. Furthermore, some of the limitations of 1.5T MRI such as very long scanning times and poor contrast in articular regions can potentially be reduced by using higher field 3T MRI imaging. However, a quantification of the signal to noise ratio (SNR) gain at the bone - soft tissue interface should be performed; this is not reported in the literature. As MRI scanning of long bones has very long scanning times, the acquired images are more prone to motion artefacts due to random movements of the subject‟s limbs. One of the artefacts observed is the step artefact that is believed to occur from the random movements of the volunteer during a scan. This needs to be corrected before the models can be used for implant design. As the first aim, this study investigated two segmentation methods: intensity thresholding and Canny edge detection as accurate but simple segmentation methods for segmentation of MRI and CT data. The second aim was to investigate the usability of MRI as a radiation free imaging alternative to CT for reconstruction of 3D models of long bones. The third aim was to use 3T MRI to improve the poor contrast in articular regions and long scanning times of current MRI. The fourth and final aim was to minimise the step artefact using 3D modelling techniques. The segmentation methods were investigated using CT scans of five ovine femora. The single level thresholding was performed using a visually selected threshold level to segment the complete femur. For multilevel thresholding, multiple threshold levels calculated from the threshold selection method were used for the proximal, diaphyseal and distal regions of the femur. Canny edge detection was used by delineating the outer and inner contour of 2D images and then combining them to generate the 3D model. Models generated from these methods were compared to the reference standard generated using the mechanical contact scans of the denuded bone. The second aim was achieved using CT and MRI scans of five ovine femora and segmenting them using the multilevel threshold method. A surface geometric comparison was conducted between CT based, MRI based and reference models. To quantitatively compare the 1.5T images to the 3T MRI images, the right lower limbs of five healthy volunteers were scanned using scanners from the same manufacturer. The images obtained using the identical protocols were compared by means of SNR and contrast to noise ratio (CNR) of muscle, bone marrow and bone. In order to correct the step artefact in the final 3D models, the step was simulated in five ovine femora scanned with a 3T MRI scanner. The step was corrected using the iterative closest point (ICP) algorithm based aligning method. The present study demonstrated that the multi-threshold approach in combination with the threshold selection method can generate 3D models from long bones with an average deviation of 0.18 mm. The same was 0.24 mm of the single threshold method. There was a significant statistical difference between the accuracy of models generated by the two methods. In comparison, the Canny edge detection method generated average deviation of 0.20 mm. MRI based models exhibited 0.23 mm average deviation in comparison to the 0.18 mm average deviation of CT based models. The differences were not statistically significant. 3T MRI improved the contrast in the bone–muscle interfaces of most anatomical regions of femora and tibiae, potentially improving the inaccuracies conferred by poor contrast of the articular regions. Using the robust ICP algorithm to align the 3D surfaces, the step artefact that occurred by the volunteer moving the leg was corrected, generating errors of 0.32 ± 0.02 mm when compared with the reference standard. The study concludes that magnetic resonance imaging, together with simple multilevel thresholding segmentation, is able to produce 3D models of long bones with accurate geometric representations. The method is, therefore, a potential alternative to the current gold standard CT imaging.
Resumo:
Purpose: To determine the effect of moderate levels of refractive blur and simulated cataracts on nighttime pedestrian conspicuity in the presence and absence of headlamp glare. Methods: The ability to recognize pedestrians at night was measured in 28 young adults (M=27.6 years) under three visual conditions: normal vision, refractive blur and simulated cataracts; mean acuity was 20/40 or better in all conditions. Pedestrian recognition distances were recorded while participants drove an instrumented vehicle along a closed road course at night. Pedestrians wore one of three clothing conditions and oncoming headlamps were present for 16 participants and absent for 12 participants. Results: Simulated visual impairment and glare significantly reduced the frequency with which drivers recognized pedestrians and the distance at which the drivers first recognized them. Simulated cataracts were significantly more disruptive than blur even though photopic visual acuity levels were matched. With normal vision, drivers responded to pedestrians at 3.6x and 5.5x longer distances on average than for the blur or cataract conditions, respectively. Even in the presence of visual impairment and glare, pedestrians were recognized more often and at longer distances when they wore a “biological motion” reflective clothing configuration than when they wore a reflective vest or black clothing. Conclusions: Drivers’ ability to recognize pedestrians at night is degraded by common visual impairments even when the drivers’ mean visual acuity meets licensing requirements. To maximize drivers’ ability to see pedestrians, drivers should wear their optimum optical correction, and cataract surgery should be performed early enough to avoid potentially dangerous reductions in visual performance.
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A novel concept of producing high dc voltage for pulsed-power applications is proposed in this paper. The topology consists of an LC resonant circuit supplied through a tuned alternating waveform that is produced by an inverter. The control scheme is based on the detection of variations in the resonant frequency and adjustment of the switching signal patterns for the inverter to produce a square waveform with exactly the same frequencies. Therefore the capacitor voltage oscillates divergently with an increasing amplitude. A simple one-stage capacitor-diode voltage multiplier (CDVM) connected to the resonant capacitor then rectifies the alternating voltage and gives a dc level equal to twice the input voltage amplitude. The produced high voltage appears then in the form of high-voltage pulses across the load. A basic model is simulated by Simulink platform of MATLAB and the results are included in the paper.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) on proprioceptive function, muscle force recovery following eccentric muscle contractions and tympanic temperature (TTY). Thirty-six subjects were randomly assigned to a group receiving two 3-min treatments of −110 ± 3 °C or 15 ± 3 °C. Knee joint position sense (JPS), maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC) of the knee extensors, force proprioception and TTY were recorded before, immediately after the exposure and again 15 min later. A convenience sample of 18 subjects also underwent an eccentric exercise protocol on their contralateral left leg 24 h before exposure. MVIC (left knee), peak power output (PPO) during a repeated sprint on a cycle ergometer and muscles soreness were measured pre-, 24, 48 and 72 h post-treatment. WBC reduced TTY, by 0.3 °C, when compared with the control group (P<0.001). However, JPS, MVIC or force proprioception was not affected. Similarly, WBC did not effect MVIC, PPO or muscle soreness following eccentric exercise. WBC, administered 24 h after eccentric exercise, is ineffective in alleviating muscle soreness or enhancing muscle force recovery. The results of this study also indicate no increased risk of proprioceptive-related injury following WBC.
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Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) has recently conducted a technology demonstration of a novel fixed wireless broadband access system in rural Australia. The system is based on multi user multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MU-MIMO-OFDM). It demonstrated an uplink of six simultaneous users with distances ranging from 10 m to 8.5 km from a central tower, achieving 20 bits s/Hz spectrum efficiency. This paper reports on the analysis of channel capacity and bit error probability simulation based on the measured MUMIMO-OFDM channels obtained during the demonstration, and their comparison with the results based on channels simulated by a novel geometric optics based channel model suitable for MU-MIMO OFDM in rural areas. Despite its simplicity, the model was found to predict channel capacity and bit error rate probability accurately for a typical MU-MIMO-OFDM deployment scenario.
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In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.
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In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.
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Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.
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The incidence of sleep-related crashes has been estimated to account for approximately 20% of all fatal and severe crashes. The use of sleepiness countermeasures by drivers is an important component to reduce the incidence rates of sleep-related crashes. Taking a brief nap and stopping for a rest break are two highly publicised countermeasures for driver sleepiness and are also believed by drivers to be the most effective countermeasures. Despite this belief, there is scarce evidence to support the utility of these countermeasures for reducing driver sleepiness levels. Therefore, determining the effectiveness of these countermeasures is an important road safety concern. The current study utilised a young adult sample (N = 20) to investigate the effectiveness of a nap and an active rest break. The countermeasures effects were evaluated by physiological, behavioural (hazard perception skill), and subjective measures previously found sensitive to sleepiness. Participants initially completed two hours of a simulated driving task followed by a 15 minute nap opportunity or a 15 minute active rest break that included 10 minutes of brisk walking. After the break, participants completed one final hour of the simulated driving task. A within-subjects design was used so that each participant completed both the nap and the active rest break conditions on separate occasions. The analyses revealed that only the nap break provided any meaningful reduction in physiological sleepiness, reduced subjective sleepiness levels, and maintained hazard perception performance. In contrast, the active rest break had no effect for reducing physiological sleepiness and resulted in a decrement in hazard perception performance (i.e., an increase of reaction time latencies), with a transient reduction in subjective sleepiness levels. A number of theoretical, empirical and practical issues were identified by the current study.
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The effects of tumour motion during radiation therapy delivery have been widely investigated. Motion effects have become increasingly important with the introduction of dynamic radiotherapy delivery modalities such as enhanced dynamic wedges (EDWs) and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) where a dynamically collimated radiation beam is delivered to the moving target, resulting in dose blurring and interplay effects which are a consequence of the combined tumor and beam motion. Prior to this work, reported studies on the EDW based interplay effects have been restricted to the use of experimental methods for assessing single-field non-fractionated treatments. In this work, the interplay effects have been investigated for EDW treatments. Single and multiple field treatments have been studied using experimental and Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Initially this work experimentally studies interplay effects for single-field non-fractionated EDW treatments, using radiation dosimetry systems placed on a sinusoidaly moving platform. A number of wedge angles (60º, 45º and 15º), field sizes (20 × 20, 10 × 10 and 5 × 5 cm2), amplitudes (10-40 mm in step of 10 mm) and periods (2 s, 3 s, 4.5 s and 6 s) of tumor motion are analysed (using gamma analysis) for parallel and perpendicular motions (where the tumor and jaw motions are either parallel or perpendicular to each other). For parallel motion it was found that both the amplitude and period of tumor motion affect the interplay, this becomes more prominent where the collimator tumor speeds become identical. For perpendicular motion the amplitude of tumor motion is the dominant factor where as varying the period of tumor motion has no observable effect on the dose distribution. The wedge angle results suggest that the use of a large wedge angle generates greater dose variation for both parallel and perpendicular motions. The use of small field size with a large tumor motion results in the loss of wedged dose distribution for both parallel and perpendicular motion. From these single field measurements a motion amplitude and period have been identified which show the poorest agreement between the target motion and dynamic delivery and these are used as the „worst case motion parameters.. The experimental work is then extended to multiple-field fractionated treatments. Here a number of pre-existing, multiple–field, wedged lung plans are delivered to the radiation dosimetry systems, employing the worst case motion parameters. Moreover a four field EDW lung plan (using a 4D CT data set) is delivered to the IMRT quality control phantom with dummy tumor insert over four fractions using the worst case parameters i.e. 40 mm amplitude and 6 s period values. The analysis of the film doses using gamma analysis at 3%-3mm indicate the non averaging of the interplay effects for this particular study with a gamma pass rate of 49%. To enable Monte Carlo modelling of the problem, the DYNJAWS component module (CM) of the BEAMnrc user code is validated and automated. DYNJAWS has been recently introduced to model the dynamic wedges. DYNJAWS is therefore commissioned for 6 MV and 10 MV photon energies. It is shown that this CM can accurately model the EDWs for a number of wedge angles and field sizes. The dynamic and step and shoot modes of the CM are compared for their accuracy in modelling the EDW. It is shown that dynamic mode is more accurate. An automation of the DYNJAWS specific input file has been carried out. This file specifies the probability of selection of a subfield and the respective jaw coordinates. This automation simplifies the generation of the BEAMnrc input files for DYNJAWS. The DYNJAWS commissioned model is then used to study multiple field EDW treatments using MC methods. The 4D CT data of an IMRT phantom with the dummy tumor is used to produce a set of Monte Carlo simulation phantoms, onto which the delivery of single field and multiple field EDW treatments is simulated. A number of static and motion multiple field EDW plans have been simulated. The comparison of dose volume histograms (DVHs) and gamma volume histograms (GVHs) for four field EDW treatments (where the collimator and patient motion is in the same direction) using small (15º) and large wedge angles (60º) indicates a greater mismatch between the static and motion cases for the large wedge angle. Finally, to use gel dosimetry as a validation tool, a new technique called the „zero-scan method. is developed for reading the gel dosimeters with x-ray computed tomography (CT). It has been shown that multiple scans of a gel dosimeter (in this case 360 scans) can be used to reconstruct a zero scan image. This zero scan image has a similar precision to an image obtained by averaging the CT images, without the additional dose delivered by the CT scans. In this investigation the interplay effects have been studied for single and multiple field fractionated EDW treatments using experimental and Monte Carlo methods. For using the Monte Carlo methods the DYNJAWS component module of the BEAMnrc code has been validated and automated and further used to study the interplay for multiple field EDW treatments. Zero-scan method, a new gel dosimetry readout technique has been developed for reading the gel images using x-ray CT without losing the precision and accuracy.
Resumo:
To achieve the ultimate goal of periodontal tissue engineering, it is of great importance to develop bioactive scaffolds which could stimulate the osteogenic/cementogenic differentiation of periodontal ligament cells (PDLCs) for the favorable regeneration of alveolar bone, root cementum, and periodontal ligament. Strontium (Sr) and Sr-containing biomaterials have been found to induce osteoblast activity. However, there is no systematic report about the interaction between Sr or Sr-containing biomaterials and PDLCs for periodontal tissue engineering. The aims of this study were to prepare Sr-containing mesoporous bioactive glass (Sr-MBG) scaffolds and investigate whether the addition of Sr could stimulate the osteogenic/cementogenic differentiation of PDLCs in tissue engineering scaffold system. The composition, microstructure and mesopore properties (specific surface area, nano-pore volume and nano-pore distribution) of Sr-MBG scaffolds were characterized. The proliferation, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity and osteogenesis/cementogenesis-related gene expression (ALP, Runx2, Col I, OPN and CEMP1) of PDLCs on different kinds of Sr-MBG scaffolds were systematically investigated. The results show that Sr plays an important role in influencing the mesoporous structure of MBG scaffolds in which high contents of Sr decreased the well-ordered mesopores as well as their surface area/pore volume. Sr2+ ions could be released from Sr-MBG scaffolds in a controlled way. The incorporation of Sr into MBG scaffolds has significantly stimulated ALP activity and osteogenesis/cementogenesis-related gene expression of PDLCs. Furthermore, Sr-MBG scaffolds in simulated body fluids environment still maintained excellent apatite-mineralization ability. The study suggests that the incorporation of Sr into MBG scaffolds is a viable way to stimulate the biological response of PDLCs. Sr-MBG scaffolds are a promising bioactive material for periodontal tissue engineering application.
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Calcium silicate (CaSiO3, CS) ceramics have received significant attention for application in bone regeneration due to their excellent in vitro apatite-mineralization ability; however, how to prepare porous CS scaffolds with a controllable pore structure for bone tissue engineering still remains a challenge. Conventional methods could not efficiently control the pore structure and mechanical strength of CS scaffolds, resulting in unstable in vivo osteogenesis. The aim of this study is to set out to solve these problems by applying a modified 3D-printing method to prepare highly uniform CS scaffolds with controllable pore structure and improved mechanical strength. The in vivo osteogenesis of the prepared 3D-printed CS scaffolds was further investigated by implanting them in the femur defects of rats. The results show that the CS scaffolds prepared by the modified 3D-printing method have uniform scaffold morphology. The pore size and pore structure of CS scaffolds can be efficiently adjusted. The compressive strength of 3D-printed CS scaffolds is around 120 times that of conventional polyurethane templated CS scaffolds. 3D-Printed CS scaffolds possess excellent apatite-mineralization ability in simulated body fluids. Micro-CT analysis has shown that 3D-printed CS scaffolds play an important role in assisting the regeneration of bone defects in vivo. The healing level of bone defects implanted by 3D-printed CS scaffolds is obviously higher than that of 3D-printed b-tricalcium phosphate (b-TCP) scaffolds at both 4 and 8 weeks. Hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining shows that 3D-printed CS scaffolds induce higher quality of the newly formed bone than 3D-printed b-TCP scaffolds. Immunohistochemical analyses have further shown that stronger expression of human type I collagen (COL1) and alkaline phosphate (ALP) in the bone matrix occurs in the 3D-printed CS scaffolds than in the 3D-printed b-TCP scaffolds. Considering these important advantages, such as controllable structure architecture, significant improvement in mechanical strength, excellent in vivo osteogenesis and since there is no need for second-time sintering, it is indicated that the prepared 3D-printed CS scaffolds are a promising material for application in bone regeneration.
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The health effects of cold and hot temperatures are strongest in the frail and elderly. A large number of deaths in this "susceptible pool" after heat waves and cold snaps can cause mortality displacement, where an immediate increase in mortality is somewhat offset by a subsequent decrease in the following weeks. There may also be longer-term implications, as reductions in the pool caused by hot summers can reduce cold-related mortality in the following winter. A state-space model was used to simulate the numbers in the susceptible pool over time. We simulated the effects of harsh winters and heat waves, and varied the size of the susceptible pool. The larger the susceptible pool the smaller the mortality displacement. When 1% of the population were susceptible a harsh winter lead to an average of just 3 months of life lost per cold-related death, whereas a pool size of 10% meant that 24 months of life were lost per death. The impact of a cold spell on months of life lost was greater when the increased risk of death also applied to healthy people. The number of deaths caused by an August heat wave were reduced when there was a prior heat wave in June which reduced the susceptible pool. We were able to mimic some observed seasonal patterns in mortality using a simple state-space model. A better understanding of the size and dynamics of the susceptible pool will improve our understanding of the health effects of temperature.