Change in Mesoherbivore Browsing Is Mediated by Elephant and Hillslope Position

Elephant are considered major drivers of ecosystems, but their effects within small-scale landscape features and on other herbivores still remain unclear. Elephant impact on vegetation has been widely studied in areas where elephant have been present for many years. We therefore examined the combined effect of short-term elephant presence (< 4 years) and hillslope position on tree species assemblages, resource availability, browsing intensity and soil properties. Short-term elephant presence did not affect woody species assemblages, but did affect height distribution, with greater sapling densities in elephant access areas. Overall tree and stem densities were also not affected by elephant. By contrast, slope position affected woody species assemblages, but not height distributions and densities. Variation in species assemblages was statistically best explained by levels of total cations, Zinc, sand and clay. Although elephant and mesoherbivore browsing intensities were unaffected by slope position, we found lower mesoherbivore browsing intensity on crests with high elephant browsing intensity. Thus, elephant appear to indirectly facilitate the survival of saplings, via the displacement of mesoherbivores, providing a window of opportunity for saplings to grow into taller trees. In the short-term, effects of elephant can be minor and in the opposite direction of expectation. In addition, such behavioural displacement promotes recruitment of saplings into larger height classes. The interaction between slope position and elephant effect found here is in contrast with other studies, and illustrates the importance of examining ecosystem complexity as a function of variation in species presence and topography. The absence of a direct effect of elephant on vegetation, but the presence of an effect on mesoherbivore browsing, is relevant for conservation areas especially where both herbivore groups are actively managed.

Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED's reaction function? An Empirical Investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fed’s reaction function (FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of three switching regimes, two characterized by low volatility and the remaining regime by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the rate of inflation and the economic activity index depends on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the importance of the term spread in the FRF has increased over the sample period and the FRF has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period.

A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 3, article 6.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

Long-Term Growth and Persistence with Endogenous Depreciation: Theory and Evidence

Previous research has shown a strong positive correlation between short-term persistence and long-term output growth as well as between depreciation rates and long-term output growth. This evidence, therefore, contradicts the standard predictions from traditional neoclassical or AK-type growth models with exogenous depreciation. In this paper, we first confirm these findings for a larger sample of 101 countries. We then study the dynamics of growth and persistence in a model where both the depreciation rate and growth are endogenous and procyclical. We find that the model s predictions become consistent with the empirical evidence on persistence, long-term growth and depreciation rates.

Is there a subgroup of long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer?: Hints from the analysis of survival curves from cancer registry data

Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.

Controle da Dívida Ativa: um estudo sob a ótica da Gestão Municipal e do Poder Judiciário

A Dívida Ativa Municipal é considerada um crédito de fundamental importância para os entes públicos que se origina, principalmente, do não pagamento de tributos por parte dos contribuintes. A inscrição em dívida ativa significa a consolidação da dívida tributária e não tributária, representando um direito a receber do ente público. Este estudo tem como objetivo contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do Controle sobre a Dívida Ativa, enfocando a participação dos Poderes Executivos municipais e do Poder Judiciário, com o intuito de melhorar a cobrança dessa receita. A metodologia utilizada recaiu sobre a pesquisa qualitativa, envolvendo municípios do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, através da combinação de pesquisas bibliográfica, documental e de campo, onde foram repassados questionários junto a pessoas relacionadas ao objeto deste estudo, como procuradores municipais, empresas privadas cobradoras de crédito, servidores do Poder Judiciário que atuam diretamente com a cobrança da dívida ativa, contribuintes que se encontram em débito com a Fazenda Pública e com a Coordenadoria de Controle da Receita Pública do TCE/RJ, com o intuito de se verificar a adoção de procedimentos que aperfeiçoem o controle de gestão sobra a dívida ativa, aumentando, assim, a arrecadação dessa receita pública, tanto na fase administrativa com na judicial. Os dados analisados demonstram que a ausência de leis mais rígidas na cobrança desses créditos, a impunidade referente aos contribuintes que não cumprem com suas obrigações, bem como aos gestores públicos que deixam de cobrar de forma eficiente esses créditos, as falhas do Poder Judiciário, ocasionadas pela ainda adoção do modelo burocrático de administração, responsável pela morosidade em realizar a cobrança da dívida ativa na fase judicial, bem como em não punir aqueles gestores públicos que causam perdas patrimoniais ao ente público, e, especialmente, os fatores políticos, servem de justificativa para se apontar a necessidade de estudos sobre a Dívida Ativa. Por fim, pode-se concluir que a curto prazo deve o poder judiciário, através de seu controle externo, utilizar-se da Lei de Improbidade Administrativa, que passou a ter ainda mais importância com o surgimento da Lei da Ficha Limpa, para obrigar os administradores públicos a realizar melhor controle de gestão sobre a dívida ativa. E, a médio e a longo prazo a instituição de legislação que determine a criação de Órgãos municipais para trabalharem exclusivamente com o controle da receita pública, em especial, com a cobrança da Dívida Ativa, contribuindo, desse modo, não apenas para uma melhor gestão sobre arrecadação municipal, mas também, para mudança cultural da Administração Pública brasileira, que muita ênfase despende ao Controle da Despesa Pública e pouco se volta à Gestão da Receita Pública.

Cypermethrin use in forestry and its impact on Welsh streams: An evaluation of the impact of cypermethrin use in forestry on Welsh streams

This is the Evaluation of the impact of cypermethrin use in forestry on Welsh streams from the University of Plymouth, published on September 2010 by the Environment Agency South West. The report focuses attention on Cypermethrin, a highly active synthetic pyrethroid insecticide effective against a wide range of pests in agriculture, public health, and animal husbandry. It is also used in forestry to control the pine weevil, Hylobius abietis. Cypermethrin is very toxic to aquatic invertebrates and fish at nanogram per litre concentrations. This project checks the effectiveness of current best practice measures in minimising the risk of pollution associated with the use of cypermethrin in forestry in Wales. Chemical results from the intensive studies show that cypermethrin entered minor watercourses draining treated areas at two of the eight sites. In one of these cases the level was well in excess of the short-term Predicted No Effect Concentration. The absence of a buffer area at the other site resulted in the cypermethrin reaching a main drain. However dilution appeared to be sufficient to prevent any impact on water quality or on the invertebrate community in the main stream. Invertebrate and chemical data from the extensive survey showed little evidence of pollution due to wider use of cypermethrin in Welsh forestry. Finally, a number of recommendations are made for further tightening controls on forestry practice to minimise the risk of cypermethrin entering the aquatic environment.

Application of an acoustic–trawl survey design to improve estimates of rockfish biomass

Biomass estimates of several species of Alaskan rockfishes exhibit large interannual variations. Because rockfishes are long lived and relatively slow growing, large, short-term shifts in population abundance are not likely. We attribute the variations in biomass estimates to the high variability in the spatial distribution of rockfishes that is not well accounted for by the survey design currently used. We evaluated the performance of an experimental survey design, the Trawl and Acoustic Presence/Absence Survey (TAPAS), to reduce the variability in estimated biomass for Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus). Analysis of archived acoustic backscatter data produced an acoustic threshold for delineating potential areas of high (“patch”) and low (“background”) catch per unit of effort (CPUE) in real time. In 2009, we conducted a 12-day TAPAS near Yakutat, Alaska. We completed 59 trawls at 19 patch stations and 40 background stations. The design performed well logistically, and Pacific ocean perch (POP) accounted for 55% of the 31 metric tons (t) of the catch from this survey. The resulting estimates of rockfish biomass were slightly less precise than estimates from simple random sampling. This difference in precision was due to the weak relationship of CPUE to mean volume backscattering and the relatively low variability of POP CPUE encountered. When the data were re-analyzed with a higher acoustic threshold than the one used in the field study, performance was slightly better with this revised design than with the original field design. The TAPAS design could be made more effective by establishing a stronger link between acoustic backscatter and CPUE and by deriving an acoustic threshold that allows better identification of backscatter as that from the target species.

Chronic Morphine Treatment Impaired Hippocampal Long-Term Potentiation and Spatial Memory via Accumulation of Extracellular Adenosine Acting on Adenosine A(1) Receptors

Chronic exposure to opiates impairs hippocampal long-term potentiation (LTP) and spatial memory, but the underlying mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Given the well known effects of adenosine, an important neuromodulator, on hippocampal neuronal excitability and synaptic plasticity, we investigated the potential effect of changes in adenosine concentrations on chronic morphine treatment-induced impairment of hippocampal CA1 LTP and spatial memory. We found that chronic treatment in mice with either increasing doses (20-100 mg/kg) of morphine for 7 d or equal daily dose (20 mg/kg) of morphine for 12 d led to a significant increase of hippocampal extracellular adenosine concentrations. Importantly, we found that accumulated adenosine contributed to the inhibition of the hippocampal CA1 LTP and impairment of spatial memory retrieval measured in the Morris water maze. Adenosine A(1) receptor antagonist 8-cyclopentyl-1,3-dipropylxanthine significantly reversed chronic morphine-induced impairment of hippocampal CA1 LTP and spatial memory. Likewise, adenosine deaminase, which converts adenosine into the inactive metabolite inosine, restored impaired hippocampal CA1 LTP. We further found that adenosine accumulation was attributable to the alteration of adenosine uptake but not adenosine metabolisms. Bidirectional nucleoside transporters (ENT2) appeared to play a key role in the reduction of adenosine uptake. Changes in PKC-alpha/beta activity were correlated with the attenuation of the ENT2 function in the short-term (2 h) but not in the long-term (7 d) period after the termination of morphine treatment. This study reveals a potential mechanism by which chronic exposure to morphine leads to impairment of both hippocampal LTP and spatial memory.

Long term peripheral nerve regeneration using a novel PCL nerve conduit.

The gold standard in surgical management of a peripheral nerve gap is currently autologous nerve grafting. This confers patient morbidity and increases surgical time therefore innovative experimental strategies towards engineering a synthetic nerve conduit are welcome. We have developed a novel synthetic conduit made of poly ε-caprolactone (PCL) that has demonstrated promising peripheral nerve regeneration in short-term studies. This material has been engineered to permit translation into clinical practice and here we demonstrate that histological outcomes in a long-term in vivo experiment are comparable with that of autologous nerve grafting. A 1cm nerve gap in a rat sciatic nerve injury model was repaired with a PCL nerve conduit or an autologous nerve graft. At 18 weeks post surgical repair, there was a similar volume of regenerating axons within the nerve autograft and PCL conduit repair groups, and similar numbers of myelinated axons in the distal stump of both groups. Furthermore, there was evidence of comparable re-innervation of end organ muscle and skin with the only significant difference the lower wet weight of the muscle from the PCL conduit nerve repair group. This study stimulates further work on the potential use of this synthetic biodegradable PCL nerve conduit in a clinical setting.

Cement bentonite cutoff walls for polluted sites

Cement-bentonite (CB) cutoff walls have long been used to control ground water flow and contaminant migration at polluted sites. Hydraulic conductivity and unconfined compressive strength are two short-term properties often used by industry and owners in CB specification and are important parameters discussed in this paper. For polluted sites, long-term compatibility is also an important issue. These properties are coupled to a number of external factors including the mix design, construction sequence, presence/absence of contaminants at the site. Additional short-term properties for engineering assessment include the stressstrain characteristics in both drained and undrained shear in both with and without confinement as well as one-dimensional consolidation properties. Long term CB properties are affected by aging, reaction chemistry, drying, in situ stress state, and interaction with the polluted environment. © 2013 Taylor & Francis Group.

From Working Memory to Long-term Memory and Back: Linked but Distinct

Neural models have proposed how short-term memory (STM) storage in working memory and long-term memory (LTM) storage and recall are linked and interact, but are realized by different mechanisms that obey different laws. The authors' data can be understood in the light of these models, which suggest that the authors may have gone too far in obscuring the differences between these processes.