Evaluation of boundary-layer type in a weather forecast model utilising long-term Doppler lidar observations

Many studies evaluating model boundary-layer schemes focus either on near-surface parameters or on short-term observational campaigns. This reflects the observational datasets that are widely available for use in model evaluation. In this paper we show how surface and long-term Doppler lidar observations, combined in a way to match model representation of the boundary layer as closely as possible, can be used to evaluate the skill of boundary-layer forecasts. We use a 2-year observational dataset from a rural site in the UK to evaluate a climatology of boundary layer type forecast by the UK Met Office Unified Model. In addition, we demonstrate the use of a binary skill score (Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index) to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on season, horizontal resolution and forecast leadtime. A clear diurnal and seasonal cycle can be seen in the climatology of both the model and observations, with the main discrepancies being the model overpredicting cumulus capped and decoupled stratocumulus capped boundary-layers and underpredicting well mixed boundary-layers. Using the SEDI skill score the model is most skillful at predicting the surface stability. The skill of the model in predicting cumulus capped and stratocumulus capped stable boundary layer forecasts is low but greater than a 24 hr persistence forecast. In contrast, the prediction of decoupled boundary-layers and boundary-layers with multiple cloud layers is lower than persistence. This process based evaluation approach has the potential to be applied to other boundary-layer parameterisation schemes with similar decision structures.

Long term changes in EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere as measured by the response of the Earth’s ionosphere during total solar eclipses from 1932 to 1999

Measurements of the ionospheric E region during total solar eclipses in the period 1932-1999 have been used to investigate the fraction of Extreme Ultra Violet and soft X-ray radiation, phi, that is emitted from the limb corona and chromosphere. The relative apparent sizes of the Moon and the Sun are different for each eclipse, and techniques are presented which correct the measurements and, therefore, allow direct comparisons between different eclipses. The results show that the fraction of ionising radiation emitted by the limb corona has a clear solar cycle variation and that the underlying trend shows this fraction has been increasing since 1932. Data from the SOHO spacecraft are used to study the effects of short-term variability and it is shown that the observed long-term rise in phi has a negligible probability of being a chance occurrence.

Development of speech fluency over a short period of time: effects of pedagogic intervention

This study investigates the effects of a short-term pedagogic intervention on the development of L2 fluency among learners studying English for Academic purposes (EAP) at a university in the UK. It also examines the interaction between the development of fluency, and complexity and accuracy. Through a pre-test, post-test design, data were collected over a period of four weeks from learners performing monologic tasks. While the Control Group (CG) focused on developing general speaking and listening skills, the Experimental Group (EG) received awareness-raising activities and fluency strategy training in addition to general speaking and listening practice i.e following the syllabus. The data, coded in terms of a range of measures of fluency, accuracy and complexity, were subjected to repeated measures MANOVA, t-tests and correlations. The results indicate that after the intervention, while some fluency gains were achieved by the CG, the EG produced statistically more fluent language demonstrating a faster speech and articulation rate, longer runs and higher phonation time ratios. The significant correlations obtained between measures of accuracy and learners’ pauses in the CG suggest that pausing opportunities may have been linked to accuracy. The findings of the study have significant implications for L2 pedagogy, highlighting the effective impact of instruction on the development of fluency.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.

Lymphocyte and Cytokines after Short Periods of Exercise

The purpose of this study was to verify the effects of short periods of exercise of different intensity on lymphocyte function and cytokines. Thirty Wistar rats, 2 months old, were used. They were divided into five groups of six rats: a sedentary control group; a group exercised for 5 minutes at low intensity (5 L): a group exercised for 15 minutes at low intensity (15 L); and groups exercised at moderate intensity (additional load of 5% of body weight) for 5 minutes (5 M) or for 15 minutes (15 M). The parameters measured were: total leukocytes, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, lymphocytes from lymph nodes, serum cytokines (IL-2, IL-6 and TNF-alpha), lymphocyte mitochondrial transmembrane potential, viability and DNA fragmentation. ANOVA two way followed by Tukey`s post hoc test (p <= 0.05) was used. The exercised groups exhibited a significant increase in total leukocytes, tissue and circulating lymphocytes in comparison with the control group. There was a significant decrease in lymphocyte viability and decrease in DNA fragmentation for the 15 M group when compared with the control. There was a decrease in the level TNF-alpha in the 5 M and 15 M groups. Short-term, low- and moderate-intensity exercise may be considered for sedentary individuals beginning to exercise, since no deleterious alterations were observed in lymphocyte function.

Long-term intermittent feeding, but not caloric restriction, leads to redox imbalance, insulin receptor nitration, and glucose intolerance

Calorie restriction is a dietary intervention known to improve redox state, glucose tolerance, and animal life span. Other interventions have been adopted as study models for caloric restriction, including nonsupplemented food restriction and intermittent, every-other-day feedings. We compared the short- and long-term effects of these interventions to ad libitum protocols and found that, although all restricted diets decrease body weight, intermittent feeding did not decrease intra-abdominal adiposity. Short-term calorie restriction and intermittent feeding presented similar results relative to glucose tolerance. Surprisingly, long-term intermittent feeding promoted glucose intolerance, without a loss in insulin receptor phosphorylation. Intermittent feeding substantially increased insulin receptor nitration in both intra-abdominal adipose tissue and muscle, a modification associated with receptor inactivation. All restricted diets enhanced nitric oxide synthase levels in the insulin-responsive adipose tissue and skeletal muscle. However, whereas calorie restriction improved tissue redox state, food restriction and intermittent feedings did not. In fact, long-term intermittent feeding resulted in largely enhanced tissue release of oxidants. Overall, our results show that restricted diets are significantly different in their effects on glucose tolerance and redox state when adopted long-term. Furthermore, we show that intermittent feeding can lead to oxidative insulin receptor inactivation and glucose intolerance. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Term structure dynamics and no-arbitrage under the Taylor rule

A determinação da taxa de juros estrutura a termo é um dos temas principais da gestão de ativos financeiros. Considerando a grande importância dos ativos financeiros para a condução das políticas econômicas, é fundamental para compreender a estrutura que é determinado. O principal objetivo deste estudo é estimar a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros brasileiras, juntamente com taxa de juros de curto prazo. A estrutura a termo será modelado com base em um modelo com uma estrutura afim. A estimativa foi feita considerando a inclusão de três fatores latentes e duas variáveis ​​macroeconômicas, através da técnica Bayesiana da Cadeia de Monte Carlo Markov (MCMC).

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.

A comparison of test of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We evaluate the forecasting performance of a number of systems models of US shortand long-term interest rates. Non-linearities, induding asymmetries in the adjustment to equilibrium, are shown to result in more accurate short horizon forecasts. We find that both long and short rates respond to disequilibria in the spread in certain circumstances, which would not be evident from linear representations or from single-equation analyses of the short-term interest rate.

Predictors of first-year survival in patients with advanced COPD treated using long-term oxygen therapy

Little evidence-based guidance is available to aid clinicians in determining short-term prognoses in very severe COPD patients. Therefore, the present study was designed to provide a prospective assessment (1) of the mortality rates and (2) whether the baseline measurements may be determinants of 1-year mortality in hypoxemic COPD patients receiving long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT).Seventy-eight clinically stable patients with advanced COPD treated using LTOT were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Outcome variable: first-year mortality. Baseline measurements: categorical variables: age (<60 or >= 60 years); gender; body mass index (<20 or >= 20 kg/m(2)); fat-free mass (FFM) index (<16 [men] and <15kg/m(2) [women]; baseline dyspnea index (BDI) (<= 3 or >3); and corticosteroid use. Continuous variables: smoking history; lung function; FFM; fat mass; hemoglobin; hematocrit; arterial blood gases; forearm muscle strength; St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ); and comorbidity score. By the end of 1-year of follow-up, 12 patients (15.4%) had died. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that BDI <= 3 was the only variable associated with higher mortality. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that tower PaO2 and SPO2, higher PaCO2 and SGRQ scores were associated with reduced survival. In the multivariate analysis, BDI remained predictive of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-0.81), as did PaO2 (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.95). These data suggest that readily available parameters as dyspnea intensity and hypoxemia severity may be useful in predicting first-year survival rates in advanced COPD patients receiving LTOT (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short and long period optimization of drug doses in the treatment of AIDS

Técnicas de otimização numérica são úteis na solução de problemas de determinação da melhor entrada para sistemas descritos por modelos matemáticos e cujos objetivos podem ser expressos de uma maneira quantitativa. Este trabalho aborda o problema de otimizar as dosagens dos medicamentos no tratamento da AIDS em termos de um balanço entre a resposta terapêutica e os efeitos colaterais. Um modelo matemático para descrever a dinâmica do vírus HIV e células CD4 é utilizado para calcular a dosagem ótima do medicamento no tratamento a curto prazo de pacientes com AIDS por um método de otimização direta utilizando uma função custo do tipo Bolza. Os parâmetros do modelo foram ajustados com dados reais obtidos da literatura. Com o objetivo de simplificar os procedimentos numéricos, a lei de controle foi expressa em termos de uma expansão em séries que, após truncamento, permite obter controles sub-ótimos. Quando os pacientes atingem um estado clínico satisfatório, a técnica do Regulador Linear Quadrático (RLQ) é utilizada para determinar a dosagem permanente de longo período para os medicamentos. As dosagens calculadas utilizando a técnica RLQ , tendem a ser menores do que a equivalente terapia de dose constante em termos do expressivo aumento na contagem das células T+ CD4 e da redução da densidade de vírus livre durante um intervalo fixo de tempo.

A Quality Assessment of Titanium Castings Produced in an Experimental Short-Heating-Cycle Investment

The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of casting produced in an experimental short-term heating-cycle investment. Thus, reaction layer and castability of titanium casting using an experimental spinel-based investment (VR) with short heating cycle were compared with the commercial short-heating-cycle spinel-based investment Trinell (TR), the silica-phosphate-based investment Rematitan Plus ( RP), and the conventional spinel-based investment Rematitan Ultra (RU). VR has polymeric fibers added to inorganic particles. Reaction layer assessments were carried out using Vickers hardness and elemental analysis using dispersive X-ray microanalysis (EDX). Mesh patterns were used for castability test, and powder characterization was made by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Hardness evaluation showed no difference among the investments between 100 and 200 mu m. The most important contaminant element for VR, TR, and RU was oxygen. Higher levels of mold filling were found for TR, VR, and RU compared with that obtained with RP. The quality of castings, characterized by means of the assessments of reaction layer and castability, made from the VR was similar to the commercial investments TR and RU but superior to the RP.

Long-term follow-up in sacroiliac joint pain patients treated with radiofrequency ablative therapy

Sacroiliac joint (SIJ) pain is responsible for up to 40% of all cases of lumbar back pain. Objective Report the long-term efficacy of radiofrequency denervation for sacroiliac joint pain at six, twelve and eighteen months. Method Third-two adults’ patients with sacroiliac join pain diagnosis were included for a prospective study. Primary outcome measure was pain intensity on the Numeric Rating Scale (NRS). Secondary outcome measure was Patient Global Impression of Change Scale (PGIC). Results Short-term pain relief was observed, with the mean NRS pain score decreasing from 7.7 ± 1.8 at baseline to 2.8 ± 1.2 at one month and to 3.1 ± 1.9 at six months post-procedure (p < 0.001). Long-term pain relief was sustained at twelve and eighteen months post-procedure, with NRS pain remaining at 3.4 ± 2.1 and 4.0 ± 2.7, respectively. Conclusion Radiofrequency denervation of the SIJ can significantly reduce pain in selected patients with sacroiliac syndrome.

Long-term recovery patterns of arctic tundra after winter seismic exploration

In response to the increasing global demand for energy, oil exploration and development are expanding into frontier areas of the Arctic, where slow-growing tundra vegetation and the underlying permafrost soils are very sensitive to disturbance. The creation of vehicle trails on the tundra from seismic exploration for oil has accelerated in the past decade, and the cumulative impact represents a geographic footprint that covers a greater extent of Alaska’s North Slope tundra than all other direct human impacts combined. Seismic exploration for oil and gas was conducted on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in the winters of 1984 and 1985. This study documents recovery of vegetation and permafrost soils over a two-decade period after vehicle traffic on snow-covered tundra. Paired permanent vegetation plots (disturbed vs. reference) were monitored six times from 1984 to 2002. Data were collected on percent vegetative cover by plant species and on soil and ground ice characteristics. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models, with temporally and spatially autocorrelated errors, to analyze the effects of vegetation type and initial disturbance levels on recovery patterns of the different plant growth forms as well as soil thaw depth. Plant community composition was altered on the trails by species-specific responses to initial disturbance and subsequent changes in substrate. Long-term changes included increased cover of graminoids and decreased cover of evergreen shrubs and mosses. Trails with low levels of initial disturbance usually improved well over time, whereas those with medium to high levels of initial disturbance recovered slowly. Trails on ice-poor, gravel substrates of riparian areas recovered better than those on ice-rich loamy soils of the uplands, even after severe initial damage. Recovery to pre-disturbance communities was not possible where trail subsidence occurred due to thawing of ground ice. Previous studies of disturbance from winter seismic vehicles in the Arctic predicted short-term and mostly aesthetic impacts, but we found that severe impacts to tundra vegetation persisted for two decades after disturbance under some conditions. We recommend management approaches that should be used to prevent persistent tundra damage.