902 resultados para Short - term forecasting


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Fibre Reinforced Concretes are innovative composite materials whose applications are growing considerably nowadays. Being composite materials, their performance depends on the mechanical properties of both components, fibre and matrix and, above all, on the interface. The variables to account for the mechanical characterization of the material, could be proper of the material itself, i.e. fibre and concrete type, or external factors, i.e. environmental conditions. The first part of the research presented is focused on the experimental and numerical characterization of the interface properties and short term response of fibre reinforced concretes with macro-synthetic fibers. The experimental database produced represents the starting point for numerical models calibration and validation with two principal purposes: the calibration of a local constitutive law and calibration and validation of a model predictive of the whole material response. In the perspective of the design of sustainable admixtures, the optimization of the matrix of cement-based fibre reinforced composites is realized with partial substitution of the cement amount. In the second part of the research, the effect of time dependent phenomena on MSFRCs response is studied. An extended experimental campaign of creep tests is performed analysing the effect of time and temperature variations in different loading conditions. On the results achieved, a numerical model able to account for the viscoelastic nature of both concrete and reinforcement, together with the environmental conditions, is calibrated with the LDPM theory. Different type of regression models are also elaborated correlating the mechanical properties investigated, bond strength and residual flexural behaviour, regarding the short term analysis and creep coefficient on time, for the time dependent behaviour, with the variable investigated. The experimental studies carried out emphasize the several aspects influencing the material mechanical performance allowing also the identification of those properties that the numerical approach should consider in order to be reliable.

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This study aimed at evaluating the functional activation and activating receptors expression on resting, short- and long-term NK and NK-like T cells from blood of ovarian neoplasia patients. Blood from patients with adnexal benign alterations (n = 10) and ovarian cancer (grade I-IV n = 14) were collected after signed consent. Effector cells activation was evaluated by the expression of the CD107a molecule. Short-term culture was conducted overnight with IL-2 and long-term culture for 21 days, by a method designed to expand CD56(+) lymphocytes. Short-term culture significantly increased NK cells activation compared to resting NK cells (p<0.05), however, the long-term procedure supported an even higher increase (p<0.001). Resting NK-like T cells showed poor activation, which was not altered by the culture procedures. The long-term culture effectively increased the expression of the activating receptors on NK and NK-like T cells, either by increasing the number of cells expressing a given receptor and/or by up-regulating their expression intensity. As a conclusion, the long-term culture system employed, resulted in a high number of functional NK cells. The culture system was particularly efficient on the up-regulation of NKp30 and DNAM-1 receptors on NK cells.

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We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

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Background Two recent clinical studies support the feasibility of trials to evaluate the disease-modifying properties of lithium in Alzheimer`s disease, although no benefits were obtained from short-term treatment. Aims To evaluate the effect of long-term lithium treatment on cognitive and biological outcomes in people with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI). Method Forty-five participants with aMCI were randomised to receive lithium (0.25-0.5mmol/l) (n=24) or placebo (n = 21) in a 12-month, double-blind trial. Primary outcome measures were the modification of cognitive and functional test scores, and concentrations of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers (amyloid-beta peptide (A beta(42)), total tau (T-tau), phosphorylated-tau) (P-tau). Trial registration: NCT01055392. Results Lithium treatment was associated with a significant decrease in CSF concentrations of P-tau (P=0.03) and better perform-ance on the cognitive subscale of the Alzheimer`s Disease Assessment Scale and in attention tasks. Overall tolerability of lithium was good and the adherence rate was 91%. Conclusions The present data support the notion that lithium has disease-modifying properties with potential clinical implications in the prevention of Alzheimer`s disease.

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Fentanyl is used in obstetrical practice to promote analgesia and anesthesia during labor and in cesarean delivery, with rapid and short-term effects. To determine fentanyl concentrations in maternal plasma, in the placental intervillous space, and in the umbilical artery and vein in term pregnant women. Ten healthy pregnant women underwent epidural anesthesia with fentanyl plus bupivacaine and lidocaine, and fentanyl concentrations were determined in the various maternal and fetal compartments, including the placental intervillous space, which has not been previously studied in the literature. The ratios of fentanyl concentrations in the various maternal and fetal compartments revealed an 86% rate of placental fentanyl transfer. The highest fentanyl concentrations were detected in the placental intervillous space, being 2.19 times higher than in maternal plasma, 2.8 times higher than in the umbilical vein and 3.6 times higher than in the umbilical artery, with no significant differences between the umbilical vein and artery, demonstrating that there was no drug uptake by fetal tissues nor metabolism of the drug by the fetus despite the high rates of placental transfer. The present study demonstrated that the placental intervillous space acted as a site of fentanyl deposit, a fact that may be explained by two hypotheses: (1) the blood collected from the placental intervillous space is arterial and, according to some investigators, the arterial plasma concentrations of the drugs administered to patients undergoing epidural anesthesia are higher than the venous concentrations, and (2) a possible role of P-glycoprotein (P-gp).

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This article reports the longitudinal follow-up of a familial case of aggressive periodontitis treated by a combined regenerative approach that consisted of root conditioning, bone grafting, and membrane positioning. Treatment resulted in attachment level gain, reduction of probing depth, absence of bleeding on probing, and complete bone filling of the defect. The short-term results obtained after surgery were maintained after 6 years, suggesting that the combined regenerative approach is able to completely arrest the disease with long-term stability. (Int J Periodontics Restorative Dent 2009; 29: 69-79.)

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Study Design. A randomized clinical trial with 1-year and 3-year telephone questionnaire follow-ups. Objective. To report a specific exercise intervention’s long-term effects on recurrence rates in acute, first-episode low back pain patients. Summary of Background Data. The pain and disability associated with an initial episode of acute low back pain (LBP) is known to resolve spontaneously in the short-term in the majority of cases. However, the recurrence rate is high, and recurrent disabling episodes remain one of the most costly problems in LBP. A deficit in the multifidus muscle has been identified in acute LBP patients, and does not resolve spontaneously on resolution of painful symptoms and resumption of normal activity. Any relation between this deficit and recurrence rate was investigated in the long-term. Methods. Thirty-nine patients with acute, first-episode LBP were medically managed and randomly allocated to either a control group or specific exercise group. Medical management included advice and use of medications. Intervention consisted of exercises aimed at rehabilitating the multifidus in cocontraction with the transversus abdominis muscle. One year and three years after treatment, telephone questionnaires were conducted with patients. Results. Questionnaire results revealed that patients from the specific exercise group experienced fewer recurrences of LBP than patients from the control group. One year after treatment, specific exercise group recurrence was 30%, and control group recurrence was 84% (P , 0.001). Two to three years after treatment, specific exercise group recurrence was 35%, and control group recurrence was 75% (P , 0.01). Conclusion. Long-term results suggest that specific exercise therapy in addition to medical management and resumption of normal activity may be more effective in reducing low back pain recurrences than medical management and normal activity alone. [Key Words: multifidus, low back pain, rehabilitation]

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We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientadora: Professora Doutora Patrícia Ramos

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Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

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Realization that hard coastal infrastructures support lower biodiversity than natural habitats has prompted a wealth of research seeking to identify design enhancements offering ecological benefits. Some studies showed that artificial structures could be modified to increase levels of diversity. Most studies, however, only considered the short-term ecological effects of such modifications, even though reliance on results from short-term studies may lead to serious misjudgements in conservation. In this study, a sevenyear experiment examined how the addition of small pits to otherwise featureless seawalls may enhance the stocks of a highly-exploited limpet. Modified areas of the seawall supported enhanced stocks of limpets seven years after the addition of pits. Modified areas of the seawall also supported a community that differed in the abundance of littorinids, barnacles andmacroalgae compared to the controls. Responses to different treatments (numbers and size of pits) were speciesspecific and, while some species responded directly to differences among treatments, others might have responded indirectly via changes in the distribution of competing species. This type of habitat enhancement can have positive long-lasting effects on the ecology of urban seascapes.Understanding of species interactions could be used to develop a rule-based approach to enhance biodiversity.

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O constante crescimento dos produtores em regime especial aliado à descentralização dos pontos injetores na rede, tem permitido uma redução da importação de energia mas também tem acarretado maiores problemas para a gestão da rede. Estes problemas estão relacionados com o facto da produção estar dependente das condições climatéricas, como é o caso dos produtores eólicos, hídricos e solares. A previsão da energia produzida em função da previsão das condições climatéricas tem sido alvo de atenção por parte da comunidade empresarial do setor, pelo facto de existir modelos razoáveis para a previsão das condições climatéricas a curto prazo, e até a longo prazo. Este trabalho trata, em concreto, do problema da previsão de produção em centrais mini-hídricas, apresentando duas propostas para essa previsão. Em ambas as propostas efetua-se inicialmente a previsão do caudal que chega à central, sendo esta depois convertida em potência que é injetada na rede. Para a previsão do caudal utilizaram-se dois métodos estatísticos: o método Holt-Winters e os modelos ARMAX. Os dois modelos de previsão propostos consideram um horizonte temporal de uma semana, com discretização horária, para uma central no norte de Portugal, designadamente a central de Penide. O trabalho também contempla um pequeno estudo da bibliografia existente tanto para a previsão da produção como de afluências de centrais hidroelétricas. Aborda, ainda, conceitos relacionados com as mini-hídricas e apresenta uma caraterização do parque de centrais mini-hídricas em Portugal.

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Lamivudine has been demonstrated safe and efficacious in the short term in a large cohort of children with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but optimal duration of treatment has not been elucidated and limited data on the safety of long-term lamivudine administration have been reported. In addition, the durability of favourable therapeutic outcomes after lamivudine therapy in children has not been well characterized. The aim of this study was to examine the safety of lamivudine and the durability of clinical responses in a group of children who received up to 3 years of treatment for CHB. One hundred and fifty-one children from centres in nine countries who had previously received lamivudine in a large prospective trial were enrolled. During the first year, children had been randomized to either lamivudine or placebo treatment. Subsequently, in a separate extension study, those who remained hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) positive were given lamivudine for up to 2 years and those who were HBeAg negative were observed for additional 2 years. Results of these studies have been previously reported. In this study, these children were followed for 2 additional years. Data gathered from medical record review included weight, height, signs and symptoms of hepatitis, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, serologic markers, hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and serious adverse events (SAEs). Other pharmacological treatments for CHB were allowed according to the practices of individual investigators and were documented. Subjects were divided into two groups for analysis, those who had achieved virological response (VR), defined as HBeAg negative and undetectable HBV DNA by the bDNA assay by the end of the extension study at 3 years, and those who had not. In those who had achieved VR by the end of the extension study, long-term durability of HBeAg seroconversion was 82% and >90% in those who had received lamivudine for 52 weeks and at least 2 years respectively. This compares to 75% for those who had achieved seroconversion after placebo. In those who had not achieved VR by the end of the extension study, an additional 11% did so by the end of the study; they had all received lamivudine in the previous trial, and none had received further treatment during the study. Eight children lost hepatitis B surface antigen during the study and all had received lamivudine at some point during the previous trials. Evaluation of safety data revealed no SAEs related to lamivudine. There was no effect of treatment on weight or height z scores. Clinically benign ALT flares (>10 times normal) were seen in 2% of children. Favourable outcomes from lamivudine treatment of CHB in children are maintained for at least several years after completion of treatment. Up to 3 years of lamivudine treatment is safe in children.

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Introduction The cryopreservation of rabies virus has been described in detail in the literature. To date, little information is available on the use of cryoprotective agents for cold preservation of this virus, and the available data focus only on short-term virus preservation. In this study, we investigated the medium-term cryopreservation of samples of rabies virus using different cryopreservation protocols. Methods The cryopreservation protocols for the rabies virus samples were performed at -20°C and were divided according to the variables of time and cryoprotectant type used. The laboratory tests (intracerebral inoculation of mice, viral titration and direct immunofluorescence) were performed at regular intervals (360 and 720 days) to assess the viability of the viral samples according to the different preservation techniques used. Results After 1 year of cryopreservation, the fluorescence intensity of intracellular corpuscles of the rabies virus and the median survival time of the mice differed between the positive controls and the treatments with the cryoprotectants. After 2 years, most of the samples subjected to the cryopreservation protocols (including the controls) did not produce fluorescence. However, the virus samples exposed to the cryoprotectant sucrose (68% solution) responded positively in the direct immunofluorescence assay and in the intracerebral inoculation of the mice. Conclusions Medium-term cryopreservation of the rabies virus inactivates the viral sample. However, the cryoprotectant agent sucrose (68%) produces a preservative effect in cryopreserved rabies virus samples.

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Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)