Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

The impact of installer business models on the uptake of residential microgeneration in the UK: Evidence from a nation-wide survey

This paper arises from a doctoral thesis comparing the impact of alternative installer business models on the rate at which microgeneration is taken up in homes and installation standards across the UK. The paper presents the results of the first large-scale academic survey of businesses certified to install residential microgeneration. The aim is to systematically capture those characteristics which define the business model of each surveyed company, and relate these to the number, location and type of technologies that they install, and the quality of these installations. The methodology comprised a pilot web survey of 235 certified installer businesses, which was carried out in June last year and achieved a response rate of 30%. Following optimisation of the design, the main web survey was emailed to over 2000 businesses between October and December 2011, with 317 valid responses received. The survey is being complemented during summer 2012 by semi-structured interviews with a representative sample of installers who completed the main survey. The survey results are currently being analysed. The early results indicate an emerging and volatile market where solar PV, solar hot water and air source heat pumps are the dominant technologies. Three quarters of respondents are founders of their installer business, while only 22 businesses are owned by another company. Over half of the 317 businesses have five employees or less, while 166 businesses are no more than four years old. In addition, half of the businesses stated that 100% of their employees work on microgeneration-related activities. 85% of the surveyed companies have only one business location in the UK. A third of the businesses are based either in the South West or South East regions of England. This paper outlines the interim results of the survey combined with the outcomes from additional interviews with installers to date. The research identifies some of the business models underpinning microgeneration installers and some of the ways in which installer business models impact on the rate and standards of microgeneration uptake. A tentative conclusion is that installer business models are profoundly dependent on the levels and timing of support from the UK Feed-in Tariffs and Renewable Heat Incentive.

Protease-activated receptor 2 sensitizes the capsaicin receptor transient receptor potential vanilloid receptor 1 to induce hyperalgesia

Inflammatory proteases (mast cell tryptase and trypsins) cleave protease-activated receptor 2 (PAR2) on spinal afferent neurons and cause persistent inflammation and hyperalgesia by unknown mechanisms. We determined whether transient receptor potential vanilloid receptor 1 (TRPV1), a cation channel activated by capsaicin, protons, and noxious heat, mediates PAR2-induced hyperalgesia. PAR2 was coexpressed with TRPV1 in small- to medium-diameter neurons of the dorsal root ganglia (DRG), as determined by immunofluorescence. PAR2 agonists increased intracellular [Ca2+] ([Ca2+]i) in these neurons in culture, and PAR2-responsive neurons also responded to the TRPV1 agonist capsaicin, confirming coexpression of PAR2 and TRPV1. PAR2 agonists potentiated capsaicin-induced increases in [Ca2+]i in TRPV1-transfected human embryonic kidney (HEK) cells and DRG neurons and potentiated capsaicin-induced currents in DRG neurons. Inhibitors of phospholipase C and protein kinase C (PKC) suppressed PAR2-induced sensitization of TRPV1-mediated changes in [Ca2+]i and TRPV1 currents. Activation of PAR2 or PKC induced phosphorylation of TRPV1 in HEK cells, suggesting a direct regulation of the channel. Intraplantar injection of a PAR2 agonist caused persistent thermal hyperalgesia that was prevented by antagonism or deletion of TRPV1. Coinjection of nonhyperalgesic doses of PAR2 agonist and capsaicin induced hyperalgesia that was inhibited by deletion of TRPV1 or antagonism of PKC. PAR2 activation also potentiated capsaicin-induced release of substance P and calcitonin gene-related peptide from superfused segments of the dorsal horn of the spinal cord, where they mediate hyperalgesia. We have identified a novel mechanism by which proteases that activate PAR2 sensitize TRPV1 through PKC. Antagonism of PAR2, TRPV1, or PKC may abrogate protease-induced thermal hyperalgesia.

Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle

The time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is studied using a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs are prescribed for the past (1860–1990) and projected into the future according to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a. In addition, the space–time distribution of tropospheric ozone is prescribed, and the tropospheric sulfur cycle is calculated within the coupled model using sulfur emissions of the past and projected into the future (IS92a). The radiative impact of the aerosols is considered via both the direct and the indirect (i.e., through cloud albedo) effect. It is shown that the simulated trend in sulfate deposition since the end of the last century is broadly consistent with ice core measurements, and the calculated radiative forcings from preindustrial to present time are within the uncertainty range estimated by IPCC. Three climate perturbation experiments are performed, applying different forcing mechanisms, and the results are compared with those obtained from a 300-yr unforced control experiment. As in previous experiments, the climate response is similar, but weaker, if aerosol effects are included in addition to greenhouse gases. One notable difference to previous experiments is that the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not fundamentally affected by the inclusion of aerosol effects. Although the monsoon is damped compared to a greenhouse gas only experiment, it is still more vigorous than in the control experiment. This different behavior, compared to previous studies, is the result of the different land–sea distribution of aerosol forcing. Somewhat unexpected, the intensity of the global hydrological cycle becomes weaker in a warmer climate if both direct and indirect aerosol effects are included in addition to the greenhouse gases. This can be related to anomalous net radiative cooling of the earth’s surface through aerosols, which is balanced by reduced turbulent transfer of both sensible and latent heat from the surface to the atmosphere.

Multiple stationary solutions of an irradiated slab

A mathematical model describing the heat budget of an irradiated medium is introduced. The one-dimensional form of the equations and boundary conditions are presented and analysed. Heat transport at one face of the slab occurs by absorption (and reflection) of an incoming beam of short-wave radiation with a fraction of this radiation penetrating into the body of the slab, a diffusive heat flux in the slab and a prescribed incoming heat flux term. The other face of the slab is immersed in its own melt and is considered to be a free surface. Here, temperature continuity is prescribed and evolution of the surface is determined by a Stefan condition. These boundary conditions are flexible enough to describe a range of situations such as a laser shining on an opaque medium, or the natural environment of polar sea ice or lake ice. A two-stream radiation model is used which replaces the simple Beer’s law of radiation attenuation frequently used for semi-infinite domains. The stationary solutions of the governing equations are sought and it is found that there exists two possible stationary solutions for a given set of boundary conditions and a range of parameter choices. It is found that the existence of two stationary solutions is a direct result of the model of radiation absorption, due to its effect on the albedo of the medium. A linear stability analysis and numerical calculations indicate that where two stationary solutions exist, the solution corresponding to a larger thickness is always stable and the solution corresponding to a smaller thickness is unstable. Numerical simulations reveal that when there are two solutions, if the slab is thinner than the smaller stationary thickness it will melt completely, whereas if the slab is thicker than the smaller stationary thickness it will evolve toward the larger stationary thickness. These results indicate that other mechanisms (e.g. wave-induced agglomeration of crystals) are necessary to grow a slab from zero initial thickness in the parameter regime that yields two stationary solutions.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment – part I: temporal variability of long-term observations in central London

Though anthropogenic impacts on boundary layer climates are expected to be large in dense urban areas, to date very few studies of energy flux observations are available. We report on 3.5 years of measurements gathered in central London, UK. Radiometer and eddy covariance observations at two adjacent sites, at different heights, were analysed at various temporal scales and with respect to meteorological conditions, such as cloud cover. Although the evaporative flux is generally small due to low moisture availability and a predominately impervious surface, the enhancement following rainfall usually lasts for 12–18 h. As both the latent and sensible heat fluxes are larger in the afternoon, they maintain a relatively consistent Bowen ratio throughout the middle of the day. Strong storage and anthropogenic heat fluxes sustain high and persistently positive sensible heat fluxes. At the monthly time scale, the urban surface often loses more energy by this turbulent heat flux than is gained from net all-wave radiation. Auxiliary anthropogenic heat flux information suggest human activities in the study area are sufficient to provide this energy.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment Part II: impact of spatial heterogeneity of the surface

The centre of cities, characterised by spatial and temporal complexity, are challenging environments for micrometeorological research. This paper considers the impact of sensor location and heterogeneity of the urban surface on flux observations in the dense city centre of London, UK. Data gathered at two sites in close vicinity, but with different measurement heights, were analysed to investigate the influence of source area characteristics on long-term radiation and turbulent heat fluxes. Combining consideration of diffuse radiation and effects of specular reflections, the non-Lambertian urban surface is found to impact the measurements of surface albedo. Comparisons of observations from the two sites reveal that turbulent heat fluxes are similar under some flow conditions. However, they mostly observe processes at different scales due to their differing measurement heights, highlighting the critical impact of siting sensors in urban areas. A detailed source area analysis is presented to investigate the surface controls influencing the energy exchanges at the different scales

A nonlinear oscillator describing storm track variability

We construct a two-variable model which describes the interaction between local baroclinicity and eddy heat flux in order to understand aspects of the variance in storm tracks. It is a heuristic model for diabatically forced baroclinic instability close to baroclinic neutrality. The two-variable model has the structure of a nonlinear oscillator. It exhibits some realistic properties of observed storm track variability, most notably the intermittent nature of eddy activity. This suggests that apparent threshold behaviour can be more accurately and succinctly described by a simple nonlinearity. An analogy is drawn with triggering of convective events.

Baroclinic instability on hot extrasolar planets

We investigate baroclinic instability in flow conditions relevant to hot extrasolar planets. The instability is important for transporting and mixing heat, as well as for influencing large-scale variability on the planets. Both linear normal mode analysis and non-linear initial value cal- culations are carried out – focusing on the freely-evolving, adiabatic situation. Using a high- resolution general circulation model (GCM) which solves the traditional primitive equations, we show that large-scale jets similar to those observed in current GCM simulations of hot ex- trasolar giant planets are likely to be baroclinically unstable on a timescale of few to few tens of planetary rotations, generating cyclones and anticyclones that drive weather systems. The growth rate and scale of the most unstable mode obtained in the linear analysis are in qual- itative, good agreement with the full non-linear calculations. In general, unstable jets evolve differently depending on their signs (eastward or westward), due to the change in sign of the jet curvature. For jets located at or near the equator, instability is strong at the flanks – but not at the core. Crucially, the instability is either poorly or not at all captured in simulations with low resolution and/or high artificial viscosity. Hence, the instability has not been observed or emphasized in past circulation studies of hot extrasolar planets.

JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soybean, maize and rice. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soybean at the global and country levels, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index, gross primary production and canopy height better than in the standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an Earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging. However, more effort is needed to develop the parametrisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the introduction of processes such as irrigation and nitrogen limitation which will enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield.

Emergy-based sustainability assessment of different energy options for green buildings

It is necessary to minimize the environmental impact and utilize natural resources in a sustainable and efficient manner in the early design stage of developing an environmentally-conscious design for a heating, ventilating and air-conditioning system. Energy supply options play a significant role in the total environmental load of heating, ventilating and air-conditioning systems. To assess the environmental impact of different energy options, a new method based on Emergy Analysis is proposed. Emergy Accounting, was first developed and widely used in the area of ecological engineering, but this is the first time it has been used in building service engineering. The environmental impacts due to the energy options are divided into four categories under the Emergy Framework: the depletion of natural resources, the greenhouse effect (carbon dioxide equivalents), the chemical rain effect (sulphur dioxide equivalents), and anthropogenic heat release. The depletion of non-renewable natural resources is indicated by the Environmental Load Ratio, and the environmental carrying capacity is developed to represent the environmental service to dilute the pollutants and anthropogenic heat released. This Emergy evaluation method provides a new way to integrate different environmental impacts under the same framework and thus facilitates better system choices. A case study of six different kinds of energy options consisting of renewable and non-renewable energy was performed by using Emergy Theory, and thus their relative environmental impacts were compared. The results show that the method of electricity generation in energy sources, especially for electricity-powered systems, is the most important factor to determine their overall environmental performance. The direct-fired lithium-bromide absorption type consumes more non-renewable energy, and contributes more to the urban heat island effect compared with other options having the same electricity supply. Using Emergy Analysis, designers and clients can make better-informed, environmentally-conscious selections of heating, ventilating and air-conditioning systems.

Impact of atmospheric forcing data on simulations of the Laptev Sea polynya dynamics using the sea-ice ocean model FESOM

The polynyas of the Laptev Sea are regions of particular interest due to the strong formation of Arctic sea-ice. In order to simulate the polynya dynamics and to quantify ice production, we apply the Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model FESOM. In previous simulations FESOM has been forced with daily atmospheric NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) 1. For the periods 1 April to 9 May 2008 and 1 January to 8 February 2009 we examine the impact of different forcing data: daily and 6-hourly NCEP reanalyses 1 (1.875° x 1.875°), 6-hourly NCEP reanalyses 2 (1.875° x 1.875°), 6-hourly analyses from the GME (Global Model of the German Weather Service) (0.5° x 0.5°) and high-resolution hourly COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling) data (5 km x 5 km). In all FESOM simulations, except for those with 6-hourly and daily NCEP 1 data, the openings and closings of polynyas are simulated in principle agreement with satellite products. Over the fast-ice area the wind fields of all atmospheric data are similar and close to in situ measurements. Over the polynya areas, however, there are strong differences between the forcing data with respect to air temperature and turbulent heat flux. These differences have a strong impact on sea-ice production rates. Depending on the forcing fields polynya ice production ranges from 1.4 km3 to 7.8 km3 during 1 April to 9 May 2011 and from 25.7 km3 to 66.2 km3 during 1 January to 8 February 2009. Therefore, atmospheric forcing data with high spatial and temporal resolution which account for the presence of the polynyas are needed to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying ice production in polynyas.

On the parameterization of turbulent surface fluxes over heterogeneous sea ice surfaces

Turbulent surface fluxes of momentum and sensible and latent heat as well as surface temperature, air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed were measured by the German Falcon research aircraft over the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of the northern Baltic Sea and the Fram Strait. Applying the bulk formulas and the stability functions to the measurements, the roughness lengths for momentum z0, sensible heat zT, and latent heat zq were calculated. As mean values over a wide range of sea ice conditions, we obtain z0 = 5 � 10�4 m, zT = 1 � 10�8 m, and zq = 1 � 10�7 m. These correspond to the following mean values (± standard deviations) of neutral transfer coefficients reduced to 10 m height, CDN10 = (1.9 ± 0.8) � 10�3, CHN10 = (0.9 ± 0.3) � 10�3, and CEN10 = (1.0 ± 0.2) � 10�3. An average ratio of z0/zT � 104 was observed over the range of 10�6 m < z0 < 10�2 m and differs from previously published results over compact sea ice (10�1 < z0/zT < 103). Other observational results over heterogeneous sea ice do not exist. However, our z0/zT ratio approximately agrees with observations over heterogeneous land surfaces. Flux parameterizations based on commonly used roughness lengths ratios (z0 = zT = zq) overestimate the surface heat fluxes compared to our measurements by more than 100%.

Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world

There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. Here we review important mechanisms that contribute towards EDW: snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming with elevation (or at a critical elevation), and it is believed that combinations of these mechanisms may account for contrasting regional patterns of EDW. We discuss future needs to increase knowledge of mountain temperature trends and their controlling mechanisms through improved observations, satellite-based remote sensing and model simulations.

Modeling study of the aspect ratio influence on urban canopy energy fluxes with a modified wall-canyon energy budget scheme

The influence of the aspect ratio (building height/street canyon width) and the mean building height of cities on local energy fluxes and temperatures is studied by means of an Urban Canopy Model (UCM) coupled with a one-dimensional second-order turbulence closure model. The UCM presented is similar to the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model in most of its features but differs in a few important aspects. In particular, the street canyon walls are treated separately which leads to a different budget of radiation within the street canyon walls. The UCM has been calibrated using observations of incoming global and diffuse solar radiation, incoming long-wave radiation and air temperature at a site in So Paulo, Brazil. Sensitivity studies with various aspect ratios have been performed to assess their impact on urban temperatures and energy fluxes at the top of the canopy layer. In these simulations, it is assumed that the anthropogenic heat flux and latent heat fluxes are negligible. Results show that the simulated net radiation and sensible heat fluxes at the top of the canopy decrease and the stored heat increases as the aspect ratio increases. The simulated air temperature follows the behavior of the sensible heat flux. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.