Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

A Method for siting and prioritizing the removal of derelict vessels in Florida Coastal Waters: test applications in the Florida Keys

Increased boating activities and new waterfront developments have contributed an estimated 3,000 dismantled, abandoned, junked, wrecked, derelict vessels to Florida coastal waters. This report outlines a method of siting and prioritizing derelict vessel removal using the Florida Keys as a test area. The data base was information on 240 vessels, obtained from Florida Marine Patrol files. Vessel location was plotted on 1:250,000 regional and 1:5,000 and 1:12,000 site maps. Type of vessel, length, hull material, engine, fuel tanks, overall condition, afloat and submerged characteristics, and accessibility, were used to derive parametric site indices of removal priority and removal difficulty. Results indicate 59 top priority cases which should be the focus of immediate clean up efforts in the Florida Keys. Half of these cases are rated low to moderate in removal difficulty; the remainder are difficult to remove. Removal difficulty is a surrogate for removal cost: low difficulty -low cost, high difficulty - high cost. The rating scheme offers coastal planners options of focusing removal operations either on (1) specific areas with clusters of high priority derelict vessels or on (2) selected targeted derelicts at various, specific locations. (PDF has 59 pages.)

Effects of shear on eggs and larvae of striped bass, morone saxatilis, and white perch, M. americana

Shear stress, generated by water movement, can kill fish eggs and larvae by causing rotation or deformation. Through the use of an experimental apparatus, a series of shear (as dynes/cm2)-mortality equations for fixed time exposures were generated for striped bass and white perch eggs and larvae. Exposure of striped bass eggs to a shear level of 350 dynes/cm2 kills 36% of the eggs in 1 min; 69% in 2 min, and 88% in 4 min; exposure of larvae to 350 dynes/cm2 kills 9.3% in 1 min, 30.0% in 2 min, and 68.1% in 4 min. A shear level of 350 dynes/cm2 kills 38% of the white perch eggs in 1 min, 41% in 2 min, 89% in 5 min, 96% in 10 min, and 98% in 20 min. A shear level of 350 dynes/cm2 applied to white perch larvae destroys 38% of the larvae in 1 min, 52% in 2 min, and 75% in 4 min. Results are experimentally used in conjunction with the determination of shear levels in the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal and ship movement for the estimation of fish egg and larval mortalities in the field.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Numerical Analysis of the Effects of Free-Stream Thermo-Chemical State on the Test Model Flow Field in High-Enthalpy Tunnel

The effects of the free-stream thermo-chemical state on the test model flow field in the high-enthalpy tunnel are studied numerically. The properties of the free-stream, which is in thermo-chemical non-equilibrium, are determined by calculating the nozzle flow field. A free-stream with total enthalpy equal to the real one in the tunnel while in thermo-chemical equilibrium is constructed artificially to simulate the natural atmosphere condition. The flow fields over the test models (blunt cone and Apollo command capsule model) under both the non-equilibrium and the virtual equilibrium free-stream conditions are calculated. By comparing the properties including pressure, temperature, species concentration and radiation distributions of these two types of flow fields, the effects of the non-equilibrium state of the free-stream in the high-enthalpy shock tunnel are analyzed.

CHARACTERIZATION OF SHEAR BANDS IN TWO BULK METALLIC GLASSES WITH DIFFERENT INHERENT PLASTICITY

Shear banding characterization of Zr64.13Cu15.75Ni10.12Al10 and Zr65Cu15Ni10Al10 bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) with significant difference in inherent plasticity and quite similar chemical composition was studied by depth sensitive macroindentaion tests with conical indenter. Well-developed shear band pattern can be found for both BMGs after indentation. Distinct difference in the shear band spacing, scale of plastic deformation region and the shear band branching in the two BMGs account for the different plasticity.

Analytical calculations of Eulerian and Lagrangian time correlations in turbulent shear flows

The Taylor series expansion method is used to analytically calculate the Eulerian and Lagrangian time correlations in turbulent shear flows. The short-time behaviors of those correlation functions can be obtained from the series expansions. Especially, the propagation velocity and sweeping velocity in the elliptic model of space-time correlation are analytically calculated and further simplified using the sweeping hypothesis and straining hypothesis. These two characteristic velocities mainly determine the space-time correlations.

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