Stratosphere-troposphere transport in a numerical simulation of midlatitude convection

The transport of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere via convection is investigated numerically using the UK Met Office Unified Model. A convective system that formed on 27 June 2004 near southeast England, in the vicinity an upper level potential vorticity anomaly and a lowered tropopause, provides the basis for analysis. Transport is diagnosed using a stratospheric tracer that can either be passed through or withheld from the model’s convective parameterization scheme. Three simulations are performed at increasingly finer resolutions, with horizontal grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km. In the 12 and 4 km simulations, tracer is transported deeply into the troposphere by the parameterized convection. In the 1 km simulation, for which the convective parameterization is disengaged, deep transport is still accomplished but with a much smaller magnitude. However, the 1 km simulation resolves stirring along the tropopause that does not exist in the coarser simulations. In all three simulations, the concentration of the deeply transported tracer is small, three orders of magnitude less than that of the shallow transport near the tropopause, most likely because of the efficient dilution of parcels in the lower troposphere.

Application of the Lighthill-Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance to clear-air turbulence forecasting

A new method of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting based on the Lighthill–Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance and emission of inertia–gravity waves has been derived and applied on episodic and seasonal time scales. A scale analysis of this shallow-water theory for midlatitude synoptic-scale flows identifies advection of relative vorticity as the leading-order source term. Examination of leading- and second-order terms elucidates previous, more empirically inspired CAT forecast diagnostics. Application of the Lighthill–Ford theory to the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys CAT outbreak of 9 March 2006 results in good agreement with pilot reports of turbulence. Application of Lighthill–Ford theory to CAT forecasting for the 3 November 2005–26 March 2006 period using 1-h forecasts of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 2 1500 UTC model run leads to superior forecasts compared to the current operational version of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG1) algorithm, the most skillful operational CAT forecasting method in existence. The results suggest that major improvements in CAT forecasting could result if the methods presented herein become operational.

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

Jupiter's and Saturn's convectively driven banded jets in the laboratory

The banded patterns of cloud and wind are among the most striking features of the atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn, but their dynamical origin remains poorly understood. Most approaches towards understanding zonation so far (also in the terrestrial oceans) have used highly idealized models to show that it might originate from dynamical anisotropy in a shallow turbulent fluid layer due to the planetary β-effect. Here we report the results of laboratory experiments, conducted on a 14-m diameter turntable, which quantitatively confirm that multiple zonal jets may indeed be generated and maintained by this mechanism in the presence of deep convection and a topographic β-effect. At the very small values of Ekman number (≤2 × 10−5) and large local Reynolds numbers (≥2000, based on jet scales) achieved, the kinetic energy spectra suggest the presence of both energy-cascading and enstrophy-cascading inertial ranges in addition to the zonation near twice the Rhines wave number.

Evidence for global circuit current flow through water droplet layers

Abstract Foggy air and clear air have appreciably different electrical conductivities. The conductivity gradient at horizontal droplet boundaries causes droplet charging, as a result of vertical current flow in the global atmospheric electrical circuit. The charging is poorly known, as both the current flow through atmospheric water droplet layers and the air conductivity are poorly characterised experimentally. Surface measurements during three days of continuous fog using new instrument techniques show that a shallow (of order 100 m deep) fog layer still permits the vertical conduction current to pass. Further, the conductivity in the fog is estimated to be approximately 20% lower than in clear air. Assuming a fog transition thickness of one metre, this implies a vertical conductivity gradient of order 10 fS m−2 at the boundary. The actual vertical conductivity gradient at a cloud boundary would probably be greater, due to the presence of larger droplets in clouds compared to fog, and cleaner, more conductive clear air aloft.

Predicting mesh density for adaptive modelling of the global atmosphere

The shallow water equations are solved using a mesh of polygons on the sphere, which adapts infrequently to the predicted future solution. Infrequent mesh adaptation reduces the cost of adaptation and load-balancing and will thus allow for more accurate mapping on adaptation. We simulate the growth of a barotropically unstable jet adapting the mesh every 12 h. Using an adaptation criterion based largely on the gradient of the vorticity leads to a mesh with around 20 per cent of the cells of a uniform mesh that gives equivalent results. This is a similar proportion to previous studies of the same test case with mesh adaptation every 1–20 min. The prediction of the mesh density involves solving the shallow water equations on a coarse mesh in advance of the locally refined mesh in order to estimate where features requiring higher resolution will grow, decay or move to. The adaptation criterion consists of two parts: that resolved on the coarse mesh, and that which is not resolved and so is passively advected on the coarse mesh. This combination leads to a balance between resolving features controlled by the large-scale dynamics and maintaining fine-scale features.

Pb-210-Ra-226 and Ra-228-Th-232 systematics in young arc lavas: implications for magma degassing and ascent rates

New data show that island arc rocks have (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) ratios which range from as low as 0.24 up to 2.88. In contrast, (Ra-22S/Th-232) appears always within error of I suggesting that the large Ra-226-excesses observed in arc rocks were generated more than 30 years ago. This places a maximum estimate on melt ascent velocities of around 4000 m/year and provides further confidence that the Ra-226 excesses reflect deep (source) processes rather than shallow level alteration or seawater contamination. Conversely, partial melting must have occurred more than 30 years prior to eruption. The Pb-210 deficits are most readily explained by protracted magma degassing. Using published numerical models, the data suggest that degassing occurred continuously for periods up to several decades just prior to eruption but no link with eruption periodicity was found. Longer periods are required if degassing is discontinuous, less than 100% efficient or if magma is recharged or stored after degassing. The long durations suggest much of this degassing occurs at depth with implications for the formation of hydrothermal and copper-porphyry systems. A suite of lavas erupted in 1985-1986 from Sangeang Api volcano in the Sunda arc are characterised by deficits of Pb-210 relative to Ra-226 from which 6-8 years of continuous Rn-222 degassing would be inferred from recent numerical models. These data also form a linear (Pb-210)/Pb-(Ra-226)/Pb array which might be interpreted as a 71-year isochron. However, the array passes through the origin suggesting displacement downwards from the equiline in response to degassing and so the slope of the array is inferred not to have any age significance. Simple modelling shows that the range of (Ra-226)/Pb ratios requires thousands of years to develop consistent with differentiation occurring in response to cooling at the base of the crust. Thus, degassing post-dated, and was not responsible for magma differentiation. The formation, migration and extraction of gas bubbles must be extremely efficient in mafic magma whereas the higher viscosity of more siliceous magmas retards the process and can lead to Pb-210 excesses. A possible negative correlation between (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) and SO2 emission rate requires further testing but may have implications for future eruptions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories

1. We compared the baseline phosphorus (P) concentrations inferred by diatom-P transfer functions and export coefficient models at 62 lakes in Great Britain to assess whether the techniques produce similar estimates of historical nutrient status. 2. There was a strong linear relationship between the two sets of values over the whole total P (TP) gradient (2-200 mu g TP L-1). However, a systematic bias was observed with the diatom model producing the higher values in 46 lakes (of which values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in 21). The export coefficient model gave the higher values in 10 lakes (of which the values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in only 4). 3. The difference between baseline and present-day TP concentrations was calculated to compare the extent of eutrophication inferred by the two sets of model output. There was generally poor agreement between the amounts of change estimated by the two approaches. The discrepancy in both the baseline values and the degree of change inferred by the models was greatest in the shallow and more productive sites. 4. Both approaches were applied to two lakes in the English Lake District where long-term P data exist, to assess how well the models track measured P concentrations since approximately 1850. There was good agreement between the pre-enrichment TP concentrations generated by the models. The diatom model paralleled the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive P (SRP) more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean TP in both lakes. The export coefficient model produced a closer fit to observed annual mean TP concentrations for both sites, tracking the changes in total external nutrient loading. 5. A combined approach is recommended, with the diatom model employed to reflect the nature and timing of the in-lake response to changes in nutrient loading, and the export coefficient model used to establish the origins and extent of changes in the external load and to assess potential reduction in loading under different management scenarios. 6. However, caution must be exercised when applying these models to shallow lakes where the export coefficient model TP estimate will not include internal P loading from lake sediments and where the diatom TP inferences may over-estimate TP concentrations because of the high abundance of benthic taxa, many of which are poor indicators of trophic state.

Biosensor-based diagnostics of contaminated groundwater: assessment and remediation strategy

Shallow groundwater beneath a former airfield site in southern England has been heavily contaminated with a wide range of chlorinated solvents. The feasibility of using bacterial biosensors to complement chemical analysis and enable cost-effective, and focussed sampling has been assessed as part of a site evaluation programme. Five different biosensors, three metabolic (Vibrio fischeri, Pseudomonas fluorescens 10568 and Escherichia coli HB101) and two catabolic (Pseudomonas putida TVA8 and E. coli DH5alpha), were employed to identify areas where the availability and toxicity of pollutants is of most immediate environmental concern. The biosensors used showed different sensitivities to each other and to the groundwater samples tested. There was generally a good agreement with chemical analyses. The potential efficacy of remediation strategies was explored by coupling sample manipulation to biosensor tests. Manipulation involved sparging and charcoal treatment procedures to simulate remediative engineering solutions. Sparging was sufficient at most locations. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Croft Moraig and the chronology of stone circles

The Perthshire stone circle of Croft Moraig was excavated 40 years ago and is usually taken to illustrate the classic sequence at such monuments in Britain. A timber setting, accompanied by a shallow ditch, was replaced by two successive stone settings. The pottery associated with the earliest construction was dated to the Neolithic period. A new analysis of the excavated material suggests that, in fact, the ceramics are Middle or Late Bronze Age. They provide a terminus post quem for at least one of the stone settings on the site. Further study of the evidence suggests an alternative sequence of construction at Croft Moraig, involving a change in the axis of the monument. It seems possible that other stone and timber circles were equally late in date and that their period of use in Britain and Ireland may have been longer than is generally supposed.

An ichnofabric approach to the depositional interpretation of the intensely burrowed Bateig Limestone, Miocene, SE Spain

The foraminiferal-rich pelagic Bateig Limestone forms several varieties of the important building stones quarried at Bateig Hill in southeastern Spain. Three principal ichnofabrics (Bichordites, mottled-Palaeophycus and mottled-Ophiomorpha) are recognized, which are present in at least two (possibly up to four) repeated successions (cycles). Each succession begins with an erosional event. The Bichordites ichnofabric represents a new type of facies, formed as thin turbidity/grain flow, stratiform units derived from sediment slips off a fault into deep water. Each slipped unit became almost completely bioturbated by infaunal echinoids, colonizing by lateral migration. Because of the thinness of the units, successive colonizations tended to truncate the underlying burrows giving rise to a pseudo-stratification. As the Bichordites ichnofabric accumulated on the fault apron, thus reducing the effective height of the fault scarp, the substrate gradually came under the influence of currents traversing the shelf. This led to a change in hydraulic regime, and to the mottled-Palaeophycus and mottled-Ophiomorpha ichnofabrics in sediment deposited under bed load transport, and associated with laminar and cross-stratified beds and local muddy intervals. Reactivation of the fault triggered erosion and channeling and a return to grain flow sedimentation, and to the Bichordites ichnofabric of the succeeding cycle. The highest unit of the Bateig Limestone is formed entirely of cross-stratified calcarenites with occasional Ophiomorpha (Ophiomorpha-primary lamination ichnofabric) and is similar to many shallow marine facies but they still bear a significant content of pelagic foraminifera. The sedimentary setting bears resemblance with that described for the Pleistocene Monte Torre Paleostrait and the modem Strait of Messina (Italy), where the narrow morphology of the depositional area enhanced tidal currents and allowed for high-energy sandy deposition in relatively deep areas. More data on the Miocene paleogeography of the Bateig area should provide further testing for this hypothesis. The ichnofacies and stacking of the Bateig Limestone differ from the classic Seilacherian model in that they reflect changes in hydraulic process and are associated with faulting and subsidence and changes in sediment supply. Recognition of the unusual ichnofabrics and their relationships provides a clear indication of the overall dynamic setting. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Upper Valanginian (Early Cretaceous) positive carbon-isotope event recorded in terrestrial plants

Our understanding of the ancient ocean-atmosphere system has focused on oceanic proxies. However, the study of terrestrial proxies is equally necessary to constrain our understanding of ancient climates and linkages between the terrestrial and oceanic carbon reservoirs. We have analyzed carbon-isotope ratios from fossil plant material through the Valanginian and Lower Hauterivian from a shallow-marine, ammonite-constrained succession in the Crimean Peninsula of the southern Ukraine in order to determine if the Upper Valanginian positive carbon-isotope excursion is expressed in the atmosphere. delta(13)C(plant) values fluctuate around -23% to -22% for the Valanginian-Hauterivian, except during the Upper Valanginian where delta(13)C(plant) values record a positive excursion to similar to-18%. Based upon ammonite biostratigraphy from Crimea, and in conjunction with a composite Tethyan marine delta(13)C(carb) curve, several conclusions can be drawn: (1) the delta(13)C(plant) record indicates that the atmospheric carbon reservoir was affected; (2) the defined ammonite correlations between Europe and Crimea are synchronous; and (3) a change in photosynthetic carbon-isotope fractionation, caused by a decrease in atmospheric PCO2, occurred during the Upper Valanginian Positive delta(13)C excursion. Our new data, combined with other paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information, indicate that the Upper Valanginian was a cool period (icehouse) and highlights that the Cretaceous period was interrupted by periods of cooling and was not an equable climate as previously thought. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent habitat degradation in karstic Lake Uluabat, western Turkey: A coupled limnological-palaeolimnological approach

The Ramsar site of Lake Uluabat, western Turkey, suffers from eutrophication, urban and industrial pollution and water abstraction, and its water levels are managed artificially. Here we combine monitoring and palaeolimnological. techniques to investigate spatial and temporal limnological variability and ecosystem impact, using an ostracod and mollusc survey to strengthen interpretation of the fossil record. A combination of low invertebrate Biological Monitoring Working Party scores (<10) and the dominance of eutrophic diatoms in the modern lake confirms its poor ecological status. Palaeolimnological analysis of recent (last >200 yr) changes in organic and carbonate content, diatoms, stable isotopes, ostracods and molluscs in a lake sediment core (UL20A) indicates a 20th century trend towards increased sediment accumulation rates and eutrophication which was probably initiated by deforestation and agriculture. The most marked ecological shift occurs in the early 1960s, however. A subtle rise in diatom-inferred total phosphorus and an inferred reduction in submerged aquatic macrophyte cover accompanies a major increase in sediment accumulation rate. An associated marked shift in ostracod stable isotope data indicative of reduced seasonality and a change in hydrological input suggests major impact from artificial water management practices, all of which appears to have culminated in the sustained loss of submerged macrophytes since 2000. The study indicates it is vital to take both land-use and water management practices into account in devising restoration strategies. in a wider context, the results have important implications for the conservation of shallow karstic lakes, the functioning of which is still poorly understood. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geostatistical analysis of soil, vegetation, and image data characterizing land surface variation

The elucidation of spatial variation in the landscape can indicate potential wildlife habitats or breeding sites for vectors, such as ticks or mosquitoes, which cause a range of diseases. Information from remotely sensed data could aid the delineation of vegetation distribution on the ground in areas where local knowledge is limited. The data from digital images are often difficult to interpret because of pixel-to-pixel variation, that is, noise, and complex variation at more than one spatial scale. Landsat Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Satellite Pour l'Observation de La Terre (SPOT) image data were analyzed for an area close to Douna in Mali, West Africa. The variograms of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from both types of image data were nested. The parameters of the nested variogram function from the Landsat ETM+ data were used to design the sampling for a ground survey of soil and vegetation data. Variograms of the soil and vegetation data showed that their variation was anisotropic and their scales of variation were similar to those of NDVI from the SPOT data. The short- and long-range components of variation in the SPOT data were filtered out separately by factorial kriging. The map of the short-range component appears to represent the patterns of vegetation and associated shallow slopes and drainage channels of the tiger bush system. The map of the long-range component also appeared to relate to broader patterns in the tiger bush and to gentle undulations in the topography. The results suggest that the types of image data analyzed in this study could be used to identify areas with more moisture in semiarid regions that could support wildlife and also be potential vector breeding sites.

Habitat associations of the Small Red Damselfly (Ceriagrion tenellum) (De Villiers) in heathland in southern England (Zygoptera : Coenagrionidae)

The Small Red Damselfly (Ceriagrion tenellum) (De Villiers) (Odonata: Coenagrionidae: Ceriagrion) is classed as vulnerable (Shirt, British Red Data Book, Nature Conservancy Council, Peterborough, UK, 1987) throughout the UK, and is included in certain Local Biodiversity Action Plans (LBAPs) in the south. A large proportion of any Biodiversity Action Plan is concerned with the requirement of conservation and management programmes. In order to guide them, information about the habitat preferences of the species concerned is vital. Detailed habitat information was collected to include a variety of physical parameters particularly vegetation, both in-channel and bankside. The species was found to be primarily associated with in-channel emergent broad-leaved plants, bankside grasses and rushes, and shallow, narrow channels with dark organic substrate. The consequences of these findings are discussed in relation to the conservation and management of C. tenellum.