Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Fungal communities in archives: assessment strategies and impact on paper conservation and human health

The main results presented in this PhD Dissertation have been published in interna-tional journals included in the Science Citation Index (SCI)

Can the Yield Spread predict economic growth? An assessment for European countries

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA- School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Management from Louvain School of Management

Prospective system analysis of stationary battery systems under the frame of Constructive Technology Assessment

Based on the report for the unit “Project IV” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment under the supervision of Dr.-Ing. Marcel Weil and Prof. Dr. António Brandão Moniz. The report was presented and discussed at the Doctorate Conference on Technologogy Assessment in July 2013 at the University Nova Lisboa, Caparica campus.

Indoor location-based analytics systems: Portuguese market compettive assessment and entry procing strategy of BIPs' technology in Sonae Sierra Shopping malls stores

This project attempts to provide an in-depth competitive assessment of the Portuguese indoor location-based analytics market, and to elaborate an entry-pricing strategy for Business Intelligence Positioning System (BIPS) implementation in Portuguese shopping centre stores. The role of industry forces and company’s organizational resources platform to sustain company’s competitive advantage was explored. A customer value-based pricing approach was adopted to assess BIPS value to retailers and maximize Sonae Sierra profitability. The exploratory quantitative research found that there is a market opportunity to explore every store area types with tailored proposals, and to set higher-than-tested membership fees to allow a rapid ROI, concluding there are propitious conditions for Sierra to succeed in BIPS store’s business model in Portugal.

Assessment of integration of the leprosy program into primary health care in Aracaju, state of Sergipe, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological and operational characteristics of the Leprosy Program before and after its integration into the Primary healthcare Services of the municipality of Aracaju-Sergipe, Brazil. METHODS: Data were drawn from the national database. The study periods were divided into preintegration (1996-2000) and postintegration (2001-2007). Annual rates of epidemiological detection were calculated. Frequency data on clinico-epidemiological variables of cases detected and treated for the two periods were compared using the Chi-squared (χ2) test adopting a 5% level of significance. RESULTS: Rates of detection overall, and in subjects younger than 15 years, were greater for the postintegration period and were higher than rates recorded for Brazil as a whole during the same periods. A total of 780 and 1,469 cases were registered during the preintegration and postintegration periods, respectively. Observations for the postintegration period were as follows: I) a higher proportion of cases with disability grade assessed at diagnosis, with increase of 60.9% to 78.8% (p < 0.001), and at end of treatment, from 41.4% to 44.4% (p < 0.023); II) an increase in proportion of cases detected by contact examination, from 2.1% to 4.1% (p < 0.001); and III) a lower level of treatment default with a decrease from 5.64 to 3.35 (p < 0.008). Only 34% of cases registered from 2001 to 2007 were examined. CONCLUSIONS: The shift observed in rates of detection overall, and in subjects younger than 15 years, during the postintegration period indicate an increased level of health care access. The fall in number of patients abandoning treatment indicates greater adherence to treatment. However, previous shortcomings in key actions, pivotal to attaining the outcomes and impact envisaged for the program, persisted in the postintegration period.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs): Methodologies for assessment

Marine Protected Areas are an effective way of protecting biodiversity, with potential socio-economic benefits including the enhancement of local fisheries and maintenance of ecosystem services. However, local fishing communities often fear short-term revenue losses and thus may oppose marine protected areas creation. This work includes a review of the need of having management effectiveness evaluation and its importance in providing useful information for stakeholders. Therefore, evaluation methodologies are presented and assessed in order to suggest possible approaches to the Berlengas MPA. In this case, an indicator-based approach can be relevant as a starting point, providing already some insights about the management effectiveness of Berlengas MPA. It also supports the development of a more ambitious approach such as a bio-economic model.

Avaliação da monitorização diária da proteína C-Reativa no doente crítico

RESUMO: O objectivo desta Tese de Doutoramento foi estudar o valor da Proteína CReactiva(PCR) como marcador de infecção e sepsis. Por definição, um marcador da infecção não está presente se o doente não está infectado, deve aparecer concomitantemente ou idealmente preceder a instalação da infecção, deve desaparecer com a instituição de terapêutica antimicrobiana adequada e permanecer elevado se a infecção for refractária ao tratamento. Do ponto de vista biológico, a PCR é o protótipo das proteínas de fase aguda, com uma marcada elevação da sua concentração sérica em resposta a diversos estímulos inflamatórios em particular infecções bacterianas. A sua concentração sérica depende apenas da intensidade do estímulo e da velocidade de síntese hepática, não sendo influenciada por nenhum factor ou tratamento a não ser que este tenha influência directa sobre o estímulo desencadeante, o que a torna um marcador de infecção com grande potencial. Nesta Tese comparou-se a PCR com marcadores clássicos de infecção, temperatura e contagem leucocitária, em diversas situações clínicas analisando doentes com infecções documentadas e doentes controlos, sem infecção. Globalmente os resultados dos trabalhos desta Tese mostram que a PCR é um bom marcador de infecção de acordo com a definição previamente apresentada. Em conjunto com a restante avaliação clínica e laboratorial, a monitorização diária da PCR nos doentes sem infecção mostrou ser útil como sentinela da infecção, isto é, apresenta valores baixos nos doentes sem infecção e sobe precocemente nos doentes que desenvolvem uma infecção. Nos doentes com infecção documentada revelou um ser bom marcador de resposta à terapêutica e evolução clínica, diminuindo naqueles que melhoravam e persistindo elevada nos que tinham mau prognóstico, bem assim como identificar diferentes perfis evolutivos. Em suma, a monitorização diária da PCR mostrou utilidade ao longo de todo o internamento na Unidade de Cuidados Intensivos, quer na presença quer na ausência de infecção. Deste todo, a monitorização diária da PCR pode a possibilitar uma utilização mais racional e judiciosa da terapêutica antimicrobiana, contribuindo dessa forma para uma diminuição da toxicidade e da pressão antibiótica, menor risco de emergência de resistências e finalmente diminuição dos custos. Uma vez que, os doentes internados nas Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos apresentam as mesmas doenças que os restantes doentes admitidos no hospital apenas se distinguindo pela sua maior gravidade, poder-se-á extrapolar que a PCR também é potencialmente um bom marcador de infecção nestes doentes. ----------------ABSTRACT: The aim of this PhD Thesis was to assess the value of C-Reactive Protein (CRP) as a marker of infection and sepsis. A marker of infection should be absent in a non-infected patient, should increase alongside or ideally precede the development of an infection, and finally should assess the therapeutic response, that is to say decrease or even disappear with adequate antimicrobial therapy or on the opposite remain elevated if the infection is refractory to the prescribed treatment. The biology of CRP makes it the prototype of acute phase proteins, with marked and sharp elevations of its serum concentration in response to several inflammatory stimulus in particular bacterial infections. Besides, CRP level depends only of the intensity of the stimulus and the rate of hepatic synthesis. Its concentration is not modified by any therapy or intervention. Only those interventions affecting the inflammatory process responsible for the acute phase reaction can change the CRP level. These properties make CRP a potentially good marker of infection. In this Thesis the value of CRP was studied in comparison to traditional markers of infection, like temperature and white cell count, in different clinical situations analysing patients with documented infections and a control group without infection. The aggregated results of the analysis presented in this Thesis illustrate that CRP could be used as a marker of infection. In conjunction with other clinical and laboratory manifestations of sepsis, daily CRP measurement in patients without infection was useful in prediction of infection as its concentration remains low in patients without infection whereas if an infection appears its levels raise markedly. In addition, in patients with documented infections CRP was useful as a marker of therapeutic response and follow-up, with marked decreases in patients with good outcome and remaining elevated in those with poor prognosis, as well as the recognition of different patterns of evolution. In summary, daily CRP measurement was helpful in critical ill patients along the entire Intensive Care Unit stay, both in the presence and in the absence of infection. As a result, daily CRP measurement can assure a better and more rational use of antibiotics and consequently contribute to a decrease in the antibiotic toxicity and demand, reducing the risks of emergence of resistant strains aas well as costs. Provided that patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit presented the same clinical diagnosis as those admitted to the wards but with higher severity, one can speculate that CRP is also a potentially good marker of infection in these of patients.

A new methodology for urban wind resource assessment

In the latest years the wind energy sector experienced an exponential growth all over the world. What started as a deployment of onshore projects, soon moved to offshore and, more recently to the urban environment within the context of smart cities and renewable micro-generation. However, urban wind projects using micro turbines do not have enough profit margins to enable the setup of comprehensive and expensive measurement campaigns, a standard procedure for the deployment of large wind parks. To respond to the wind assessment needs of the future smart cities a new and simple methodology for urban wind resource assessment was developed. This methodology is based on the construction of a surface involving a built area in order to estimate the wind potential by treating it as very complex orography. This is a straightforward methodology that allows estimating the sustainable urban wind potential, being suitable to map the urban wind resource in large areas. The methodology was applied to a case study and the results enabled the wind potential assessment of a large urban area being consistent with experimental data obtained in the case study area, with maximum deviations of the order of 10% (mean wind speed) and 20% (power density).

Assessment by doppler ultrasound of entheseal lesions in spondyloarthritis : a longitudial study to determine structural damage and disease activity lesions

RESUMO: Enthesitis is the hallmark of spondyloarthritis (SpA), and is observed in all subtypes. Wide information on SpA abnormalities, including synovitis, tendinitis and enthesitis, can be efficiently perceived by Doppler ultrasound. Furthermore, several studies on imaging of enthesis showed that imaging techniques are better than clinical examination to detect enthesis alterations; and vascularized enthesitis detected by Doppler ultrasound appears to be a valuable diagnostic tool to confirm SpA diagnosis. However, data published until now concerning entheseal elementary alterations that characterize SpA enthesitis (enthesis inflammatory activity) or enthesopathy (permanent structural changes) reflect rather the authors’ empiric opinion than a methodological validation process. In this sense it seems crucial to identify elementary entheseal lesions associated with activity or damage, in order to improve monitoring and treatment response in SpA patients. The development of better assessment tools is today a challenge and a need in SpA. The first study of this thesis focused on the analysis of the reliability of inter-lector and inter-ultrasonography equipment of Madrid sonography enthesitis index (MASEI). Fundamental data for the remaining unrolling project validity. In the second and third studies we concerned about two entheseal elemental lesions: erosions and bursa. In literature erosions represent a permanent structural damage, being useful for monitoring joint injury, disease activity and therapeutic response in many rheumatic diseases; and to date, this concept has been mostly applied in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Unquestionably, erosion is a tissue-related damage and a structural change. However, the hypothesis that we decided to test was if erosions represent a permanent structural change that can only grow and worsen over time, as occurs in RA, or a transitory alteration. A longitudinal study of early SpA patients was undertaken, and the Achilles enthesis was used as a model. Our results strongly suggested that previously detected erosions could disappear during the course of the disease, being consistent with the dynamic behavior of erosion over time. Based on these striking results it seems reasonable to suggest that the new-bone formation process in SpA could be associated with the resolution of cortical entheseal erosion over time. These results could also be in agreement with the apparent failure of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapies to control bone proliferation in SpA; and with the relation of TNF-α, Dickkopf-related protein 1 (Dkk-1) and the regulatory molecule of the Wnt signaling pathway in the bone proliferation in SpA. In the same model, we then proceeded to study the enthesis bursa. Interestingly, the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) enthesopathy definition does not include bursa as an elementary entheseal lesion. Nonetheless, bursa was included in 46% of the enthesis studies in a recently systematic literature review, being in agreement with the concept of “synovio-entheseal complex” that includes the link between enthesitis and osteitis in SpA. It has been clarified in recent data that there is not only a close functional integration of the enthesis with the neighboring bone, but also a connection between enthesitis and synovitis. Therefore, we tried to assess the prevalence and relevance of the bursa-synovial lesion in SpA. Our findings showed a significant increase of Achilles bursa presence and thickness in SpA patients compared to controls (healthy/mechanical controls and RA controls). These results raise awareness to the need to improve the enthesopathy ultrasonographic definition. In the final work of this thesis, we have explored new perspectives, not previously reported, about construct validity of enthesis ultrasound as a possible activity outcome in SpA. We performed a longitudinal Achilles enthesis ultrasound study in patients with early SpA. Achilles ultrasound examinations were performed at baseline, six- and twelve-month time periods and compared with clinical outcome measures collected at basal visit. Our results showed that basal erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are higher in patients with Doppler signal in enthesis, and even that higher basal ESR, CRP and Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) predicted a higher Doppler signal (an ultrasound alteration accepted as representative of inflammation) six months later. Patients with very high disease activity assessed by ASDAS (>3.5) at baseline had significantly higher Achilles total ultrasound score verified at the same time; and ASDAS <1.3 predicted no Doppler signal at six and twelve months. This seems to represent a connection between classical biomarkers and clinical outcomes associated with SpA activity and Doppler signal, not only at the same time, but also for the following months. Remarkably, patients with inactive disease (ASDAS < 1.3) at baseline had no Doppler signal at six and twelve months. These findings reinforce the potential use of ultrasound related techniques for disease progression assessment and prognosis purposes. Intriguingly, Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) didn’t show significant differences between different cut-offs concerning ultrasound lesions or Doppler signal, while verified with ASDAS. These results seem to indicate that ASDAS reflects better than BASDAI what happens in the enthesis. The work herein discussed clearly shows the potential utility of ultrasound in enthesis assessment in SpA patients, and can be important for the development of ultrasound activity and structural damage scores for diagnosis and monitoring purposes. Therefore, local promotion of this technique constitutes a medical intervention that is worth being tested in SpA patients for diagnosis, monitoring and prognosis purposes.

Severity of atopic dermatitis and Ascaris lumbricoides infection: an evaluation of CCR4+ and CXCR3+ helper T cell frequency

INTRODUCTION: Ascaris lumbricoides-infected patients present lower prevalence of severe atopic dermatitis. METHODS: Peripheral blood of infected children with atopic dermatitis was assessed by flow cytometry of the frequency of Th1 and Th2 cells through the expression of CXCR3 and CCR4 chemokine receptors, respectively. RESULTS: Helminth-free patients with atopic dermatitis presented a high frequency of CCR4+Th2 cells. Parasitized patients with atopic dermatitis showed a lower frequency of CXCR3+Th1 cells compared to infected individuals only. CONCLUSIONS: Ascariasis modifies the blood traffic of Th2 cells in atopic dermatitis patients, while the allergic disease down-regulates the traffic of Th1 cells in parasitized patients.

Plasmodium vivax malaria: related factors to severity in the State of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax species has shown signs of severity, recorded with increasing frequency in the medical literature. This study aimed to characterize the signs of severe malaria by Plasmodium vivax in the State of Maranhão, Brazil. METHODS: A descriptive cohort study of patients assisted in the field and a historical and concurrent study of a series of cases among hospitalized patients were undertaken to identify the clinical and laboratory signs of severity. RESULTS: A total of 153 patients were included in the study, 13 of whom were hospitalized. Males made up the majority, numbering 103 (67.3%). The age of the patients ranged from 10 to 70 years, 92.2% were natives of the State of Maranhão, and 65% of the patients had had malaria before. The average time elapsed between symptom onset and diagnosis among outpatients was three days, while among hospitalized patients this average reached 15.5 days, a statistically significant difference (p=0.001). The parasitemia ranged from 500 to 10,000 parasites/µl in 92.8% of cases. The clinical and laboratory manifestations of severity were vomiting and diarrhea, jaundice, drowsiness, mental confusion, seizures, loss of consciousness, agitation, bleeding, pale skin, coughing and dyspnea, thrombocytopenia, anemia, elevation of nitrogenous compounds, and elevated transaminases and bilirubin. CONCLUSIONS: The monitoring of malaria patients with Plasmodium vivax showed the possibility of aggravation, the intensity of which varied in different circumstances, especially the interval time between falling ill and diagnostic confirmation.

Serologic assessment of yellow fever immunity in the rural population of a yellow fever-endemic area in Central Brazil

IntroductionThe yellow fever epidemic that occurred in 1972/73 in Central Brazil surprised the majority of the population unprotected. A clinical-epidemiological survey conducted at that time in the rural area of 19 municipalities found that the highest (13.8%) number of disease cases were present in the municipality of Luziânia, State of Goiás.MethodsThirty-eight years later, a new seroepidemiological survey was conducted with the aim of assessing the degree of immune protection of the rural population of Luziânia, following the continuous attempts of public health services to obtain vaccination coverage in the region. A total of 383 volunteers, aged between 5 and 89 years and with predominant rural labor activities (75.5%), were interviewed. The presence of antibodies against the yellow fever was also investigated in these individuals, by using plaque reduction neutralization test, and correlated to information regarding residency, occupation, epidemiological data and immunity against the yellow fever virus.ResultsWe found a high (97.6%) frequency of protective titers (>1:10) of neutralizing antibodies against the yellow fever virus; the frequency of titers of 1:640 or higher was 23.2%, indicating wide immune protection against the disease in the study population. The presence of protective immunity was correlated to increasing age.ConclusionsThis study reinforces the importance of surveys to address the immune state of a population at risk for yellow fever infection and to the surveillance of actions to control the disease in endemic areas.

Assessment of microbiological air quality in hemato-oncology units and its relationship with the occurrence of invasive fungal infections: an integrative review

Worldwide aging of the human population has promoted an increase in the incidence of neoplasia, including hematological cancers, which render patients particularly vulnerable to invasive fungal infections. For this reason, air filtration in hemato-oncology units has been recommended. However, scarce literature has assessed the impact of microbiological air quality on the occurrence of fungal infections in this population. We performed an integrative review of studies in the MEDLINE database that were published between January 1980 and October 2012, using the following combinations of keywords: air × quality × HEPA, air × quality × hematology, and airborne fungal infections. The search yielded only 13 articles, suggesting that high-efficiency filtering of the ambient air in hemato-oncology units can prevent the incidence of invasive fungal infections. However, no randomized clinical trial was found to confirm this suggestion. Currently, there is no consensus about the maximum allowable count of fungi in the air, which complicates filtration monitoring, including filter maintenance and replacement, and needs to be addressed in future studies.

Treatment and education reduce the severity of schistosomiasis periportal fibrosis

Introduction This study evaluates the factors associated with the development of severe periportal fibrosis in patients with Schistosoma mansoni. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted from April to December 2012 involving 178 patients infected with S. mansoni who were treated in the Hospital das Clínicas of Pernambuco, Brazil. Information regarding risk factors was obtained using a questionnaire. Based on the patients' epidemiological history, clinical examination, and upper abdomen ultrasound evaluation, patients were divided into 2 groups: 137 with evidence of severe periportal fibrosis and 41 patients without fibrosis or with mild or moderate periportal fibrosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using EpiInfo software version 3.5.5. Results Illiterate individuals (30.1%) and patients who had more frequent contact with contaminated water in towns in the Zona da Mata of Pernambuco (33.2%) were at greater risk for severe periportal fibrosis. Based on multivariate analysis, it was determined that an education level of up to 11 years of study and specific prior treatment for schistosomiasis were preventive factors for severe periportal fibrosis. Conclusions The prevailing sites of the severe forms of periportal fibrosis are still within the Zona da Mata of Pernambuco, although there has been an expansion to urban areas and the state coast. Specific treatment and an increased level of education were identified as protective factors, indicating the need for implementing social, sanitary, and health education interventions aimed at schistosomiasis to combat the risk factors for this major public health problem.