Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

General Practitioners' willingness to pay for continuing medical education in a fee-for-service universal coverage health care system

Background: Sponsoring of physicians meetings by life science companies has led to reduced participation fees but might influence physician's prescription practices. A ban on such sponsoring may increase participation fees. We aimed to evaluate factors associated with physicians' willingness to pay for medical meetings, their position on the sponsoring of medical meetings and their opinion on alternative financing options. Methods: An anonymous web-based questionnaire was sent to 447 general practitioners in one state in Switzerland, identified through their affiliation to a medical association. The questionnaire evaluated physicians' willingness to pay for medical meetings, their perception of a bias in prescription practices induced by commercial support, their opinion on the introduction of a binding legislation and alternative financing options, their frequency of exchange with sales representatives and other relevant socioeconomic factors. We built a multivariate predictor logistic regression model to identify determinants of willingness to pay. Results: Of the 115 physicians who responded (response rate 26%), 48% were willing to pay more than what they currently pay for congresses, 79% disagreed that commercial support introduced a bias in their prescription practices and 61% disagreed that it introduced a bias in their colleagues' prescription practices. Based on the multivariate logistic regression, perception of a bias in peers prescription practices (OR=7.47, 95% CI 1.65-38.18) and group practice structure (OR=4.62, 95% CI 1.34-22.29) were significantly associated with an increase in willingness to pay. Two thirds (76%) of physicians did not support the introduction of a binding legislation and 53% were in favour of creating a general fund administered by an independent body. Conclusion: Our results suggest that almost half of physicians surveyed are willing to pay more than what they currently pay for congresses. Predictors of an increase in physicians' willingness to pay were perception of the influence of bias in peers prescription practices and group practice structure. Most responders did not agree that sponsoring introduced prescribing bias nor did they support the 2 introduction of a binding legislation prohibiting sponsoring but a majority did agree to an independent body that would centrally administer a general fund.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the spine at 3-T: feasibility, optimization of b-value and utility to differentiate benign from pathological vertebral compression fractures

Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility, determine the optimal b-value, and assess the utility of 3-T diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) of the spine in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.Methods and Materials: Twenty patients with 38 vertebral compression fractures (24 benign, 14 pathologic) and 20 controls (total: 23 men, 17 women, mean age 56.2years) were included from December 2010 to May 2011 in this IRB-approved prospective study. MR imaging of the spine was performed on a 3-T unit with T1-w, fat-suppressed T2-w, gadolinium-enhanced fat-suppressed T1-w and zoomed-EPI (2D RF excitation pulse combined with reduced field-of-view single-shot echo-planar readout) diffusion-w (b-values: 0, 300, 500 and 700s/mm2) sequences. Two radiologists independently assessed zoomed-EPI image quality in random order using a 4-point scale: 1=excellent to 4=poor. They subsequently measured apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in normal vertebral bodies and compression fractures, in consensus.Results: Lower b-values correlated with better image quality scores, with significant differences between b=300 (mean±SD=2.6±0.8), b=500 (3.0±0.7) and b=700 (3.6±0.6) (all p<0.001). Mean ADCs of normal vertebral bodies (n=162) were 0.23, 0.17 and 0.11×10-3mm2/s with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. In contrast, mean ADCs were 0.89, 0.70 and 0.59×10-3mm2/s for benign vertebral compression fractures and 0.79, 0.66 and 0.51×10-3mm2/s for pathologic fractures with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. No significant difference was found between ADCs of benign and pathologic fractures.Conclusion: 3-T DWI of the spine is feasible and lower b-values (300s/mm2) are recommended. However, our preliminary results show no advantage of DWI in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.

Medical aspects of helicopter rescue missions involving winching of a physician

Introduction: Whereas the use of helicopters as a rapid means toreach victims and to bring them to a secure place is well-recognized,very few data are available about the value of winching physicians toprovide medical care for the victims directly on-site. We sought to studythe medical aspects of alpine helicopter rescue operations involving thewinching of an emergency physician to the victim.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical reports of a singlehelicopter-based emergency medical service. Data from 1 January 2003to 31 December 2008 were analyzed. Cases with emergency callindicating that the victim was deceased were excluded. Data includedthe category (trauma or illnesses), and severity (NACA score) of theinjuries, along with the main medical procedures performed on site.Results: 9879 rescue missions were conducted between 1 January2003 and 31 December 2008. The 921 (9.3%) missions involvingwinching of the emergency physician were analysed. 840 (91%)patients suffered from trauma-related injuries. The cases of the 81 (9%)people presenting with medical emergencies were, when compared tothe trauma victims, significantly more severe according to the NACAindex (p <0.001). Overall, 246 (27%) patients had a severe injury orillness, namely, a potential or overt vital threat (NACA score between4-6, table 1). A total of 478 (52%) patients required administration ofmajor analgesics: fentanyl (443 patients; 48%), ketamine (42 patients;5%) or morphine (7 patients; 1%). The mean dose of fentanyl was 188micrograms (range 25-750, SD 127). Major medical interventions wereperformed 72 times on 39 (4%) patients (table 2).Conclusions: The severity of the patients' injuries or illnesses alongwith the high proportion of medical procedures performed directlyon-site validate emergency physician winching for advanced life supportprocedures and analgesia.

The value of ultrasonography in assessment of portal hypertension in hepatosplenic schistosomiasis

Ultrasonography can reveal most of the manifestations of portal hypertension complicating hepatosplenic, schistosomiasis. However, direct demonstration of gastroesophageal varices by ultrasonography is still very difficult. An attempt was done to correlate sonographic features of portal hypertension with the degree of fibrosis to screen patients having varices and predicting their chance of bleeding. The results obtained were found to be consistent with the esophagogastric endoscopy and with history of hematemesis. Four parameters were used, size of spleen, degree of periportal fibrosis, presence of collaterals and portal vein diameter. A pilot field survey was also done adopting the same principle.

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in others having limited prognostic value. However, in the subpopulations where it is prognostic, it represents a marker of much higher risk than previously considered. KRAS mutation status does not seem to represent a strong prognostic variable.

Employment effects of service offshoring: evidence from matched firms

This paper studies the effects of service offshoring on the level and skill composition of domestic employment, using a rich data set of Italian firms and propensity score matching techniques. The results show that service offshoring has no effect on the level of employment but changes its composition in favor of high skilled workers.

Service offshoring and the skill composition of labor demand

This paper studies the effects of service offshoring on the skill composition of labor demand, using novel comparable data for nine Western European countries between 1990 and 2004. The empirical analysis delivers three main results. First, service offshoring is skill-biased, because it increases the demand for high and medium skilled labor and decreases the demand for low skilled labor. Second, the effects of service offshoring are similar to those of material offshoring, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Third, the economic magnitude of these effects is not large.

The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox.

ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).

Prognostic value of postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen concentration and extent of invasion of resection margins after hepatic resection for colorectal metastases.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of postoperative concentration of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and extent of surgical margins after resection of liver metastases from colorectal cancer. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Teaching hospital, Switzerland. SUBJECTS: 49 patients with hepatic metastases after primary colorectal cancer. INTERVENTIONS: Resection of hepatic metastases MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Assessment of prognostic value of variables by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Median survival was 24 months (range 5-86 months). Resection margins were clear (> 1-cm) in 10, close (< 1-cm) in 25 and invaded in 9 patients. On univariate analysis, a postoperative concentration of CEA of <4ng/ml was correlated with prolonged survival (p < 0.001), but the width of the resection margin was not of prognostic importance. There was no correlation between width of resection margins and postoperative concentration of CEA (p = 0.5). On multivariate analysis, postoperative concentrations of CEA of 4 ng/ml or more were associated with increased risk of death (relative risk 7.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.8-18.7, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Postoperative CEA offers better prognostic discrimination than the width of resection margins after resection of liver metastases from colorectal tumours. Some patients with invaded resection margins did survive for 3 years, but no patient did whose CEA concentration was 4 ng/ml or more. The definition of a potentially curative hepatic resection should include a postoperative CEA concentration of <4 ng/ml (within the reference range).