Bootstrap approaches for estimation and confidence intervals of long term memory processes

In this work, we investigate an alternative bootstrap approach based on a result of Ramsey [F.L. Ramsey, Characterization of the partial autocorrelation function, Ann. Statist. 2 (1974), pp. 1296-1301] and on the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to obtain a surrogate series from linear Gaussian processes with long range dependence. We compare this bootstrap method with other existing procedures in a wide Monte Carlo experiment by estimating, parametrically and semi-parametrically, the memory parameter d. We consider Gaussian and non-Gaussian processes to prove the robustness of the method to deviations from normality. The approach is also useful to estimate confidence intervals for the memory parameter d by improving the coverage level of the interval.

The relationship between deformity correction and clinical outcomes after thoracoscopic scoliosis surgery : a prospective series of 100 patients

The relationship between deformity correction and self-reported patient satisfaction after thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis surgery is unknown. Scoliosis Research Society questionnaire scores, radiographic outcomes, and rib hump correction were prospectively assessed for a group of 100 patients pre-operatively and at two years after surgery. Patients with lower post-op major Cobb angles report significantly higher SRS scores than patients with higher post-op Cobb angles.

Secondary curve behaviour in Lenke IC class adolescent idiopathic scoliosis following video assisted thoracoscopic spinal fusion

Introduction. Ideally after selective thoracic fusion for Lenke Class IC (i.e. major thoracic / secondary lumbar) curves, the lumbar spine will spontaneously accommodate to the corrected position of the thoracic curve, thereby achieving a balanced spine, avoiding the need for fusion of lumbar spinal segments1. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the behaviour of the lumbar curve in Lenke IC class adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) following video-assisted thoracoscopic spinal fusion and instrumentation (VATS) of the major thoracic curve. Methods. A retrospective review of 22 consecutive patients with AIS who underwent VATS by a single surgeon was conducted. The results were compared to published literature examining the behaviour of the secondary lumbar curve where other surgical approaches were employed. Results. Twenty-two patients (all female) with AIS underwent VATS. All major thoracic curves were right convex. The average age at surgery was 14 years (range 10 to 22 years). On average 6.7 levels (6 to 8) were instrumented. The mean follow-up was 25.1 months (6 to 36). The pre-operative major thoracic Cobb angle mean was 53.8° (40° to 75°). The pre-operative secondary lumbar Cobb angle mean was 43.9° (34° to 55°). On bending radiographs, the secondary curve corrected to 11.3° (0° to 35°). The rib hump mean measurement was 15.0° (7° to 21°). At latest follow-up the major thoracic Cobb angle measured on average 27.2° (20° to 41°) (p<0.001 – univariate ANOVA) and the mean secondary lumbar curve was 27.3° (15° to 42°) (p<0.001). This represented an uninstrumented secondary curve correction factor of 37.8%. The mean rib hump measured was 6.5° (2° to 15°) (p<0.001). The results above were comparable to published series when open surgery was performed. Discussion. VATS is an effective method of correcting major thoracic curves with secondary lumbar curves. The behaviour of the secondary lumbar curve is consistent with published series when open surgery, both anterior and posterior, is performed.

Demonstrating the safety and performance of a velocity sourced series elastic actuator

Actuators with deliberately added compliant elements in the transmission system are often described as improving the safety of the actuator at the detriment of the performance. We show that our variant of the Series Elastic Actuator topology, the Velocity Sourced Series Elastic Actuator, has well defined performance characteristics that make for improvements in safety and performance over conventional high impedance actuators. The improvement in performance was principally achieved by having tight velocity control of the DC motor that acts as the mechanical power source for the actuator. Results for performance are given for point to point transition times, while results for safety are based on empirical assessment of the Head Injury Criterion during collisions.

Semi-analytic method of contact modelling

An algorithm to improve the accuracy and stability of rigid-body contact force calculation is presented. The algorithm uses a combination of analytic solutions and numerical methods to solve a spring-damper differential equation typical of a contact model. The solution method employs the recently proposed patch method, which especially suits the spring-damper differential equations. The resulting semi-analytic solution reduces the stiffness of the differential equations, while performing faster than conventional alternatives.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Optimal allocation and sizing of DGs in a distribution system using PSO

In this paper, the optimal allocation and sizing of distributed generators (DGs) in a distribution system is studied. To achieve this goal, an optimization problem should be solved in which the main objective is to minimize the DGs cost and to maximise the reliability simultaneously. The active power balance between loads and DGs during the isolation time is used as a constraint. Another point considered in this process is the load shedding. It means that if the summation of DGs active power in a zone, isolated by the sectionalizers because of a fault, is less than the total active power of loads located in that zone, the program start shedding the loads in one-by-one using the priority rule still the active power balance is satisfied. This assumption decreases the reliability index, SAIDI, compared with the case loads in a zone are shed when total DGs power is less than the total load power. To validate the proposed method, a 17-bus distribution system is employed and the results are analysed.

Ultimate shear strength of LiteSteel beams

This paper presents the details of an investigation on the shear behaviour of a recently developed, cold-formed steel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB).The LSB section has a unique shape of a channel beam with two rectangular hollow flanges and is produced by a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and dual electric resistance welding. In the present investigation, a series of numerical analyses based on three-dimensional finite element modeling and an experimental study were carried out to investigate the shear behaviour of 10 different LSB sections. It was found that the current design rules in cold-formed steel structures design codes are very conservative for the shear design of LiteSteel beams. Significant improvements to web shear buckling occurred due to the presence of rectangular hollow flanges while considerable post-buckling strength was also observed. Therefore the design rules were further modified to include the available post-buckling strength. Suitable design rules were also developed under the direct strength method format. This paper presents the details of this investigation and the results including the final design rules for the shear capacity of LSBs. It also presents new shear strength formulae for lipped channel beams based on the current design equations for shear strength given in AISI (2007) using the same approach used for LSBs.

Accurate series solutions for gravity-driven Stokes waves

In the past, high order series expansion techniques have been used to study the nonlinear equations that govern the form of periodic Stokes waves moving steadily on the surface of an inviscid fluid. In the present study, two such series solutions are recomputed using exact arithmetic, eliminating any loss of accuracy due to accumulation of round-off error, allowing a much greater number of terms to be found with confidence. It is shown that higher order behaviour of series generated by the solution casts doubt over arguments that rely on estimating the series’ radius of convergence. Further, the exact nature of the series is used to shed light on the unusual nature of convergence of higher order Pade approximants near the highest wave. Finally, it is concluded that, provided exact values are used in the series, these Pade approximants prove very effective in successfully predicting three turning points in both the dispersion relation and the total energy.

Bengali handwritten character recognition using modified syntactic method

Several approaches have been proposed to recognize handwritten Bengali characters using different curve fitting algorithms and curvature analysis. In this paper, a new algorithm (Curve-fitting Algorithm) to identify various strokes of a handwritten character is developed. The curve-fitting algorithm helps recognizing various strokes of different patterns (line, quadratic curve) precisely. This reduces the error elimination burden heavily. Implementation of this Modified Syntactic Method demonstrates significant improvement in the recognition of Bengali handwritten characters.

Improved correlation-based modal strain energy method for global damage detection of truss bridge structures

The previous investigations have shown that the modal strain energy correlation method, MSEC, could successfully identify the damage of truss bridge structures. However, it has to incorporate the sensitivity matrix to estimate damage and is not reliable in certain damage detection cases. This paper presents an improved MSEC method where the prediction of modal strain energy change vector is differently obtained by running the eigensolutions on-line in optimisation iterations. The particular trail damage treatment group maximising the fitness function close to unity is identified as the detected damage location. This improvement is then compared with the original MSEC method along with other typical correlation-based methods on the finite element model of a simple truss bridge. The contributions to damage detection accuracy of each considered mode is also weighed and discussed. The iterative searching process is operated by using genetic algorithm. The results demonstrate that the improved MSEC method suffices the demand in detecting the damage of truss bridge structures, even when noised measurement is considered.

Shared leadership in Queensland schools : a collective case study

Shared leadership has been identified as a key governance base for the future of government and Catholic schools in Queensland, the state’s two largest providers of school education. Shared leadership values the contributions that many individuals can make through collaboration and teamwork. It claims to improve organisational performance and reduce the increasing pressures faced by principals. However despite these positive features, shared leadership is generally not well understood, not well accepted and not valued by those who practice or study leadership. A collective case study method was chosen, incorporating a series of semi-structured interviews with principals and the use of official school documents. The study has explored the current understanding and practice of shared leadership in four Queensland schools and investigated its potential for use.

A modified quality control method for manufacturing process in mask industry

Masks are widely used in different industries, for example, traditional metal industry, hospitals or semiconductor industry. Quality is a critical issue in mask industry as it is related to public health and safety. Traditional quality practices for manufacturing process have some limitations in implementing them in mask industries. This paper aims to investigate the suitability of Six Sigma quality control method for the manufacturing process in the mask industry to provide high quality products, enhancing the process capacity, reducing the defects and the returned goods arising in a selected mask manufacturing company. This paper suggests that modifications necessary in Six Sigma method for effective implementation in mask industry.

A vibration based method to update axial shortening of load bearing elements

Axial shortening in vertical load bearing elements of reinforced concrete high-rise buildings is caused by the time dependent effects of shrinkage, creep and elastic shortening of concrete under loads. Such phenomenon has to be predicted at design stage and then updated during and after construction of the buildings in order to provide mitigation against the adverse effects of differential axial shortening among the elements. Existing measuring methods for updating previous predictions of axial shortening pose problems. With this in mind, a innovative procedure with a vibration based parameter called axial shortening index is proposed to update axial shortening of vertical elements based on variations in vibration characteristics of the buildings. This paper presents the development of the procedure and illustrates it through a numerical example of an unsymmetrical high-rise building with two outrigger and belt systems. Results indicate that the method has the capability to capture influence of different tributary areas, shear walls of outrigger and belt systems as well as the geometric complexity of the building.

A point interpolation method with locally smoothed strain field (PIM-LS2) for mechanics problems using triangular mesh

A point interpolation method with locally smoothed strain field (PIM-LS2) is developed for mechanics problems using a triangular background mesh. In the PIM-LS2, the strain within each sub-cell of a nodal domain is assumed to be the average strain over the adjacent sub-cells of the neighboring element sharing the same field node. We prove theoretically that the energy norm of the smoothed strain field in PIM-LS2 is equivalent to that of the compatible strain field, and then prove that the solution of the PIM- LS2 converges to the exact solution of the original strong form. Furthermore, the softening effects of PIM-LS2 to system and the effects of the number of sub-cells that participated in the smoothing operation on the convergence of PIM-LS2 are investigated. Intensive numerical studies verify the convergence, softening effects and bound properties of the PIM-LS2, and show that the very ‘‘tight’’ lower and upper bound solutions can be obtained using PIM-LS2.