Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate with the fate of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene depending upon interactions among temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. Interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This study evaluates recent trends in productivity and phenology of Inner Asian forests (in Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Trends in photosynthetically active radiation fraction (FPAR) between 1982 and 2010 show a greening of about 7% of the region in spring (March, April, May), and 3% of the area ‘browning’ during summertime (June, July, August). These satellite observations of FPAR are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and possibly even greater forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover. The fate of these semi-arid ecosystems thus appears to hinge upon the magnitude and subtleties of CO2 fertilization effects, for which experimental observations in arid systems are needed to test and refine vegetation models.

Molecular analysis of TNF sensitivity in normal and Ha-{\it ras\/} transformed murine fibroblasts

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) is known to have antiproliferative effects on a wide variety of tumor cells but proliferative effects on normal cells. However, the molecular basis for such differences in the action of TNF are unknown. The overall objectives of my research are to investigate the role of oncogenes in TNF sensitivity and delineate some of the molecular mechanisms involved in TNF sensitivity and resistance. To accomplish these objectives, I transfected TNF-resistant C3H mouse embryo fibroblasts (10T1/2) with an activated Ha-ras oncogene and determined whether these cells exhibit altered sensitivity to TNF. The results indicated that 10T1/2 cells transfected with an activated Ha-ras oncogene (10T-EJ) not only produced tumors in nude mice but also exhibited extreme sensitivity to cytolysis by TNF. In contrast, 10T1/2 cells transfected with the pSV2-neo gene alone were resistant to the cytotoxic effects of TNF. I also found that TNF-induced cell death was mediated through apoptosis. The differential sensitivity of 10T1/2 and 10T-EJ cell lines to TNF was not due to differences in the number of TNF receptors on their cell surface. In addition, TNF-resistant revertants isolated from Ha-ras-transformed, TNF-sensitive cells still expressed the same amount of p21 as TNF-sensitive cells and were still tumorigenic, suggesting that Ha-ras-induced transformation and TNF sensitivity may follow different pathways. Interestingly, TNF-resistant but not sensitive cells expressed higher levels of bcl-2, c-myc, and manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) mRNA following exposure to TNF. However, TNF treatment resulted in a marginal induction of p53 mRNA in both TNF-sensitive and resistant cells. Based on these results I can conclude that (i) Ha-ras oncogene induces both transformation and TNF sensitivity, (ii) TNF-induced cytotoxicity involves apoptosis, and (iii) TNF-induced upregulation of bcl-2, c-myc, and MnSOD genes is associated with TNF resistance in C3H mouse embryo fibroblasts. ^

Development of micro-electrospray mass spectrometry for ultra high sensitivity and application in the study of drugs of abuse on endogenous \lbrack Met\rbrack $\sp5$-enkephalin release

A micro-electrospray interface was developed specifically for the neurobiological applications described in this dissertation. Incorporation of a unique nano-flow liquid chromatography micro-electrospray "needle" into the micro-electrospray interface (micro-ES/MS) increased the sensitivity of the mass spectrometric assay by $\sim$1000 fold and thus permitted the first analysis of specific neuroactive compounds in brain extracellular fluid collected by in vivo microdialysis (Md).^ Initial in vivo data presented deals with the pharmacodynamics of a novel GABA$\sb{\rm B}$ antagonist and the availability of the compound in its parent (unmetabolized) form to the brain of the anesthetized rat. Next, the first structurally specific endogenous release of (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin was demonstrated in unanesthetized freely-moving animals (release of $\sim$6.5 fmole of (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin into the dialysate by direct neuronal depolarization). The Md/micro-ES/MS system was used to test the acute effects of drugs of abuse on the endogenous release of (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin from the globus pallidus/ventral pallidum brain region in rats. Four drugs known to be abused by man (morphine, cocaine, methamphetamine and diazepam) were tested. Morphine and cocaine both elicited a two-fold or more increase in the release of (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin over vehicle controls. Diazepam elicited a small decrease in (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin levels and methamphetamine showed no significant effect on (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin. These results imply that (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin may be involved in the reward pathway of certain drugs of abuse. ^

MICROTUBULES AND RADIATION SENSITIVITY

The object of this work was to study the possibility that microtubule assembly might be involved in radiation sensitivity effect. The proliferating hair follicle was used to study the effects of cooling c-AMP, colcemid, and vincristine on the survival of the hair after irradiation. It was found that after 2 hours of cooling at the rewarming stage of the hair follicles, the sensitivity to irradiation increased and colcemid reversed this effect. c-AMP decreased radiosensitivity and together with colcemid, sensitivity decreased considerably. It is proposed that the assembly of microtubules is sensitive to irradiation.^ Total tubulin in L-P59 tumor measured immediately after irradiation was found to decrease in a dose specific manner after single doses ranging from 500 to 2000 rad. It is proposed that the change in Ca('2+) concentration after irradiation might cause this effect. Irradiation inhibited the increase in specific viscosity of 3x and 1x tubulin irradiated at the time of assembly. A small reduction in specific viscosity was found when polymerized microtubules were irradiated.^ From these experiments it is proposed that the assembly of microtubules is affected by irradiation. It may be the result of an increase in CA('2+) concentration in the tissue after irradiation or an inactivation of the initiation centers. The effects of irradiation on unassembled tubulin or assembled microtubules is negligible. ^

Magma Extraction from the Mantle Wedge at Convergent Margins Through Dikes: A Parametric Sensitivity Analysis

We address under what conditions a magma generated by partial melting at 100 km depth in the mantle wedge above a subduction zone can reach the crust in dikes before stalling. We also address under what conditions primitive basaltic magma (Mg # >60) can be delivered from this depth to the crust. We employ linear elastic fracture mechanics with magma solidification theory and perform a parametric sensitivity analysis. All dikes are initiated at a depth of 100 km in the thermal core of the wedge, and the Moho is fixed at 35 km depth. We consider a range of melt solidus temperatures (800-1100 degrees C), viscosities (10-100 Pa s), and densities (2400-2700 kg m(-3)). We also consider a range of host rock fracture toughness values (50-300 MPa m(1/2)) and dike lengths (2-5 km) and two thermal structures for the mantle wedge (1260 and 1400 degrees C at 100 km depth and 760 and 900 degrees C at 35 km depth). For the given parameter space, many dikes can reach the Moho in less than a few hundred hours, well within the time constraints provided by U series isotope disequilibria studies. Increasing the temperature in the mantle wedge, or increasing the dike length, allows additional dikes to propagate to the Moho. We conclude that some dikes with vertical lengths near their critical lengths and relatively high solidus temperatures will stall in the mantle before reaching the Moho, and these may be returned by corner flow to depths where they can melt under hydrous conditions. Thus, a chemical signature in arc lavas suggesting partial melting of slab basalts may be partly influenced by these recycled dikes. Alternatively, dikes with lengths well above their critical lengths can easily deliver primitive magmas to the crust, particularly if the mantle wedge is relatively hot. Dike transport remains a viable primary mechanism of magma ascent in convergent tectonic settings, but the potential for less rapid mechanisms making an important contribution increases as the mantle temperature at the Moho approaches the solidus temperature of the magma.

Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.

Vessel orientation-dependent sensitivity of optoacoustic imaging using a linear array transducer

For clinical optoacoustic imaging, linear probes are preferably used because they allow versatile imaging of the human body with real-time display and free-hand probe guidance. The two-dimensional (2-D) optoacoustic image obtained with this type of probe is generally interpreted as a 2-D cross-section of the tissue just as is common in echo ultrasound. We demonstrate in three-dimensional simulations, phantom experiments, and in vivo mouse experiments that for vascular imaging this interpretation is often inaccurate. The cylindrical blood vessels emit anisotropic acoustic transients, which can be sensitively detected only if the direction of acoustic radiation coincides with the probe aperture. Our results reveal for this reason that the signal amplitude of different blood vessels may differ even if the vessels have the same diameter and initial pressure distribution but different orientation relative to the imaging plane. This has important implications for the image interpretation, for the probe guidance technique, and especially in cases when a quantitative reconstruction of the optical tissue properties is required.

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Factors influencing the attitudes of cattle veterinarians, farmers, and claw trimmers towards the pain associated with the treatment of sole ulcers and the sensitivity to pain of dairy cows

This study assessed the attitudes of personnel involved in therapeutic claw trimming of dairy cattle in Switzerland towards pain associated with sole ulcers and their treatment. Data from 77 farmers, 32 claw trimmers, and 137 cattle veterinarians were used. A large range of factors were associated with whether the respondents thought that anaesthesia during the treatment of sole ulcers was beneficial; these included year of graduation, work experience, attitude to costs of analgesia, perception of competition between veterinarians and claw trimmers, estimation of pain level associated with treatment, estimated sensitivity of dairy cows to pain, knowledge of the obligation to provide analgesia, and whether the respondent thought lesion size and occurrence of defensive behaviour by the cow were important. Respondents' estimation of the pain level associated with sole ulcer treatment was linked to frequency of therapeutic claw trimming, age, farmers' income, estimated knowledge of the benefits of analgesia, and estimated sensitivity of dairy cows to pain. The latter factor was associated with profession, frequency of therapeutic claw trimming, capability of pain recognition, opinion on the benefits of analgesia, knowledge of the obligation to provide analgesia, and self-estimation of the ability to recognise pain. Improving the knowledge of personnel involved in therapeutic claw trimming with regard to pain in dairy cows and how to alleviate it is crucial if management of pain associated with treatment of sole ulcer and the welfare of lame cows are to be optimised.