A benchmark of kriging-based infill criteria for noisy optimization

Responses of many real-world problems can only be evaluated perturbed by noise. In order to make an efficient optimization of these problems possible, intelligent optimization strategies successfully coping with noisy evaluations are required. In this article, a comprehensive review of existing kriging-based methods for the optimization of noisy functions is provided. In summary, ten methods for choosing the sequential samples are described using a unified formalism. They are compared on analytical benchmark problems, whereby the usual assumption of homoscedastic Gaussian noise made in the underlying models is meet. Different problem configurations (noise level, maximum number of observations, initial number of observations) and setups (covariance functions, budget, initial sample size) are considered. It is found that the choices of the initial sample size and the covariance function are not critical. The choice of the method, however, can result in significant differences in the performance. In particular, the three most intuitive criteria are found as poor alternatives. Although no criterion is found consistently more efficient than the others, two specialized methods appear more robust on average.

ICOMF: Towards a Multi-cloud Ecosystem for Dynamic Resource Composition and Scaling

Modern cloud-based applications and infrastructures may include resources and services (components) from multiple cloud providers, are heterogeneous by nature and require adjustment, composition and integration. The specific application requirements can be met with difficulty by the current static predefined cloud integration architectures and models. In this paper, we propose the Intercloud Operations and Management Framework (ICOMF) as part of the more general Intercloud Architecture Framework (ICAF) that provides a basis for building and operating a dynamically manageable multi-provider cloud ecosystem. The proposed ICOMF enables dynamic resource composition and decomposition, with a main focus on translating business models and objectives to cloud services ensembles. Our model is user-centric and focuses on the specific application execution requirements, by leveraging incubating virtualization techniques. From a cloud provider perspective, the ecosystem provides more insight into how to best customize the offerings of virtualized resources.

Equine pastern vasculitis: a clinical and histopathological study.

Equine pastern vasculitis is clinically challenging and the underlying aetiopathogenesis is unclear. The aims of this retrospective study were to establish histopathological criteria for pastern vasculitis, to look for an underlying cause, to investigate whether the histopathological lesions are associated with a distinct clinical picture, to assess if and how the clinical picture varies, and to determine the treatment response. Skin biopsies and clinical data from 20 horses with a diagnosis of vasculitis of the distal extremities were investigated and histology was compared to biopsies from healthy horses. It was concluded that intramural inflammatory cells, leukocytoclasia with nuclear dust, thickening and oedema of the vessel walls, and microhaemorrhages are highly specific histological findings in equine pastern vasculitis. Based on the feedback from the clinicians, the lesions were mostly seen on the lateral and medial aspects of un-pigmented legs. Lesions in white skin were characterised by exudation and crusts, whereas those in pigmented skin were alopecic and characterised by scaling. The response to treatment was poor and the prognosis guarded. No association was found between any of the histopathological findings and a distinct clinical picture. An underlying cause of equine pastern vasculitis could not be identified. Considering the large number of confounding factors, the causative agents are difficult to identify, but may involve drugs or a hypersensitivity reactions to yet unknown antigens.

Assessing and mapping LD and SLM to directly support the planning and scaling up of SLM interventions to combat desertification

Global investment in Sustainable Land Management (SLM) has been substantial, but knowledge gaps remain. Overviews of where land degradation (LD) is taking place and how land users are addressing the problem using SLM are still lacking for most individual countries and regions. Relevant maps focus more on LD than SLM, and they have been compiled using different methods. This makes it impossible to compare the benefits of SLM interventions and prevents informed decision-making on how best to invest in land. To fill this knowledge gap, a standardised mapping method has been collaboratively developed by the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT), FAO’s Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) project, and the EU’s Mitigating Desertification and Remediating Degraded Land (DESIRE) project. The method generates information on the distribution and characteristics of LD and SLM activities and can be applied at the village, national, or regional level. It is based on participatory expert assessment, documents, and surveys. These data sources are spatially displayed across a land-use systems base map. By enabling mapping of the DPSIR framework (Driving Forces-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses) for degradation and conservation, the method provides key information for decision-making. It may also be used to monitor LD and conservation following project implementation. This contribution explains the mapping method, highlighting findings made at different levels (national and local) in South Africa and the Mediterranean region. Keywords: Mapping, Decision Support, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Ecosystem Services, Participatory Expert Assessment

Efficacy of quality criteria to identify potentially harmful information: a cross-sectional survey of complementary and alternative medicine web sites.

BACKGROUND: Many users search the Internet for answers to health questions. Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is a particularly common search topic. Because many CAM therapies do not require a clinician's prescription, false or misleading CAM information may be more dangerous than information about traditional therapies. Many quality criteria have been suggested to filter out potentially harmful online health information. However, assessing the accuracy of CAM information is uniquely challenging since CAM is generally not supported by conventional literature. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to determine whether domain-independent technical quality criteria can identify potentially harmful online CAM content. METHODS: We analyzed 150 Web sites retrieved from a search for the three most popular herbs: ginseng, ginkgo and St. John's wort and their purported uses on the ten most commonly used search engines. The presence of technical quality criteria as well as potentially harmful statements (commissions) and vital information that should have been mentioned (omissions) was recorded. RESULTS: Thirty-eight sites (25%) contained statements that could lead to direct physical harm if acted upon. One hundred forty five sites (97%) had omitted information. We found no relationship between technical quality criteria and potentially harmful information. CONCLUSIONS: Current technical quality criteria do not identify potentially harmful CAM information online. Consumers should be warned to use other means of validation or to trust only known sites. Quality criteria that consider the uniqueness of CAM must be developed and validated.

Improving the clinical prediction of psychosis by combining ultra-high risk criteria and cognitive basic symptoms

OBJECTIVE Cognitive impairments are regarded as a core component of schizophrenia. However, the cognitive dimension of psychosis is hardly considered by ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria. Therefore, we studied whether the combination of symptomatic UHR criteria and the basic symptom criterion "cognitive disturbances" (COGDIS) is superior in predicting first-episode psychosis. METHOD In a naturalistic 48-month follow-up study, the conversion rate to first-episode psychosis was studied in 246 outpatients of an early detection of psychosis service (FETZ); thereby, the association between conversion, and the combined and singular use of UHR criteria and COGDIS was compared. RESULTS Patients that met UHR criteria and COGDIS (n=127) at baseline had a significantly higher risk of conversion (hr=0.66 at month 48) and a shorter time to conversion than patients that met only UHR criteria (n=37; hr=0.28) or only COGDIS (n=30; hr=0.23). Furthermore, the risk of conversion was higher for the combined criteria than for UHR criteria (n=164; hr=0.56 at month 48) and COGDIS (n=158; hr=0.56 at month 48) when considered irrespective of each other. CONCLUSIONS Our findings support the merits of considering both COGDIS and UHR criteria in the early detection of persons who are at high risk of developing a first psychotic episode within 48months. Applying both sets of criteria improves sensitivity and individual risk estimation, and may thereby support the development of stage-targeted interventions. Moreover, since the combined approach enables the identification of considerably more homogeneous at-risk samples, it should support both preventive and basic research.

Multi-scale micro-structure generation strategy for up-scaling transport in clays

Clays and claystones are used as backfill and barrier materials in the design of waste repositories, because they act as hydraulic barriers and retain contaminants. Transport through such barriers occurs mainly by molecular diffusion. There is thus an interest to relate the diffusion properties of clays to their structural properties. In previous work, we have developed a concept for up-scaling pore-scale molecular diffusion coefficients using a grid-based model for the sample pore structure. Here we present an operational algorithm which can generate such model pore structures of polymineral materials. The obtained pore maps match the rock’s mineralogical components and its macroscopic properties such as porosity, grain and pore size distributions. Representative ensembles of grains in 2D or 3D are created by a lattice Monte Carlo (MC) method, which minimizes the interfacial energy of grains starting from an initial grain distribution. Pores are generated at grain boundaries and/or within grains. The method is general and allows to generate anisotropic structures with grains of approximately predetermined shapes, or with mixtures of different grain types. A specific focus of this study was on the simulation of clay-like materials. The generated clay pore maps were then used to derive upscaled effective diffusion coefficients for non-sorbing tracers using a homogenization technique. The large number of generated maps allowed to check the relations between micro-structural features of clays and their effective transport parameters, as is required to explain and extrapolate experimental diffusion results. As examples, we present a set of 2D and 3D simulations and investigated the effects of nanopores within particles (interlayer pores) and micropores between particles. Archie’s simple power law is followed in systems with only micropores. When nanopores are present, additional parameters are required; the data reveal that effective diffusion coefficients could be described by a sum of two power functions, related to the micro- and nanoporosity. We further used the model to investigate the relationships between particle orientation and effective transport properties of the sample.

Selection criteria for selective dorsal rhizotomy in children with spastic cerebral palsy: a systematic review of the literature

AIM Information regarding the selection procedure for selective dorsal rhizotomy (SDR) in children with spastic cerebral palsy (CP) is scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to summarize the selection criteria for SDR in children with spastic CP. METHOD A systematic review was carried out using the following databases: MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, PEDro, and the Cochrane Library. Additional studies were identified in the reference lists. Search terms included 'selective dorsal rhizotomy', 'functional posterior rhizotomy', 'selective posterior rhizotomy', and 'cerebral palsy'. Studies were selected if they studied mainly children (<18y of age) with spastic CP, if they had an intervention of SDR, if they had a detailed description of the selection criteria, and if they were in English. The levels of evidence, conduct of studies, and selection criteria for SDR were scored. RESULTS Fifty-two studies were included. Selection criteria were reported in 16 International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health model domains including 'body structure and function' (details concerning spasticity [94%], other movement abnormalities [62%], and strength [54%]), 'activity' (gross motor function [27%]), and 'personal and environmental factors' (age [44%], diagnosis [50%], motivation [31%], previous surgery [21%], and follow-up therapy [31%]). Most selection criteria were not based on standardized measurements. INTERPRETATION Selection criteria for SDR vary considerably. Future studies should describe clearly the selection procedure. International meetings of experts should develop more uniform consensus guidelines, which could form the basis for selecting candidates for SDR.

Scaling relations between trabecular bone volume fraction and microstructure at different skeletal sites

In this study, we investigated the scaling relations between trabecular bone volume fraction (BV/TV) and parameters of the trabecular microstructure at different skeletal sites. Cylindrical bone samples with a diameter of 8mm were harvested from different skeletal sites of 154 human donors in vitro: 87 from the distal radius, 59/69 from the thoracic/lumbar spine, 51 from the femoral neck, and 83 from the greater trochanter. μCT images were obtained with an isotropic spatial resolution of 26μm. BV/TV and trabecular microstructure parameters (TbN, TbTh, TbSp, scaling indices (< > and σ of α and αz), and Minkowski Functionals (Surface, Curvature, Euler)) were computed for each sample. The regression coefficient β was determined for each skeletal site as the slope of a linear fit in the double-logarithmic representations of the correlations of BV/TV versus the respective microstructure parameter. Statistically significant correlation coefficients ranging from r=0.36 to r=0.97 were observed for BV/TV versus microstructure parameters, except for Curvature and Euler. The regression coefficients β were 0.19 to 0.23 (TbN), 0.21 to 0.30 (TbTh), −0.28 to −0.24 (TbSp), 0.58 to 0.71 (Surface) and 0.12 to 0.16 (<α>), 0.07 to 0.11 (<αz>), −0.44 to −0.30 (σ(α)), and −0.39 to −0.14 (σ(αz)) at the different skeletal sites. The 95% confidence intervals of β overlapped for almost all microstructure parameters at the different skeletal sites. The scaling relations were independent of vertebral fracture status and similar for subjects aged 60–69, 70–79, and >79years. In conclusion, the bone volume fraction–microstructure scaling relations showed a rather universal character.