Global Optimization with Sparse and Local Gaussian Process Models

We present a novel surrogate model-based global optimization framework allowing a large number of function evaluations. The method, called SpLEGO, is based on a multi-scale expected improvement (EI) framework relying on both sparse and local Gaussian process (GP) models. First, a bi-objective approach relying on a global sparse GP model is used to determine potential next sampling regions. Local GP models are then constructed within each selected region. The method subsequently employs the standard expected improvement criterion to deal with the exploration-exploitation trade-off within selected local models, leading to a decision on where to perform the next function evaluation(s). The potential of our approach is demonstrated using the so-called Sparse Pseudo-input GP as a global model. The algorithm is tested on four benchmark problems, whose number of starting points ranges from 102 to 104. Our results show that SpLEGO is effective and capable of solving problems with large number of starting points, and it even provides significant advantages when compared with state-of-the-art EI algorithms.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.

Grabbing or investment? On judging large-scale land acquisitions

Although analyses of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLA) often contain an explicit or implicit normative judgment about such projects, they rarely deduce such judgment from a nuanced balancing of pros and cons. This paper uses assessments about a well-researched LSLA in Sierra Leone to show that a utilitarian approach tends to lead to the conclusion that positive effects prevail, whereas deontological approaches lead to an emphasis on negative aspects. LSLA are probably the most radical land-use change in the history of humankind. This process of radical transformation poses a challenge for balanced evaluations. Thus, we line out a framework that focuses on the options of local residents but sets boundaries of acceptability through the core contents of human rights. In addition, systemic implications of a project need to be regarded.

A novel colourimetric technique to assess chewing function using two-coloured specimens: Validation and application

OBJECTIVES Chewing efficiency may be evaluated using cohesive specimen, especially in elderly or dysphagic patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate three two-coloured chewing gums for a colour-mixing ability test and to validate a new purpose built software (ViewGum©). METHODS Dentate participants (dentate-group) and edentulous patients with mandibular two-implant overdentures (IOD-group) were recruited. First, the dentate-group chewed three different types of two-coloured gum (gum1-gum3) for 5, 10, 20, 30 and 50 chewing cycles. Subsequently the number of chewing cycles with the highest intra- and inter-rater agreement was determined visually by applying a scale (SA) and opto-electronically (ViewGum©, Bland-Altman analysis). The ViewGum© software determines semi-automatically the variance of hue (VOH); inadequate mixing presents with larger VOH than complete mixing. Secondly, the dentate-group and the IOD-group were compared. RESULTS The dentate-group comprised 20 participants (10 female, 30.3±6.7 years); the IOD-group 15 participants (10 female, 74.6±8.3 years). Intra-rater and inter-rater agreement (SA) was very high at 20 chewing cycles (95.00-98.75%). Gums 1-3 showed different colour-mixing characteristics as a function of chewing cycles, gum1 showed a logarithmic association; gum2 and gum3 demonstrated more linear behaviours. However, the number of chewing cycles could be predicted in all specimens from VOH (all p<0.0001, mixed linear regression models). Both analyses proved discriminative to the dental state. CONCLUSION ViewGum© proved to be a reliable and discriminative tool to opto-electronically assess chewing efficiency, given an elastic specimen is chewed for 20 cycles and could be recommended for the evaluation of chewing efficiency in a clinical and research setting. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE Chewing is a complex function of the oro-facial structures and the central nervous system. The application of the proposed assessments of the chewing function in geriatrics or special care dentistry could help visualising oro-functional or dental comorbidities in dysphagic patients or those suffering from protein-energy malnutrition.

Validation of a Spatially Continuous EDEN Water-Surface Model for the Everglades, Florida

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of realtime water-level monitoring, ground-elevation modeling, and water-surface modeling that provides scientists and managers with current (2000-present), online water-stage and water-depth information for the entire freshwater portion of the Greater Everglades. Continuous daily spatial interpolations of the EDEN network stage data are presented on grid with 400-square-meter spacing. EDEN offers a consistent and documented dataset that can be used by scientists and managers to: (1) guide large-scale field operations, (2) integrate hydrologic and ecological responses, and (3) support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem responses to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1999). The target users are biologists and ecologists examining trophic level responses to hydrodynamic changes in the Everglades. The first objective of this report is to validate the spatially continuous EDEN water-surface model for the Everglades, Florida developed by Pearlstine et al. (2007) by using an independent field-measured data-set. The second objective is to demonstrate two applications of the EDEN water-surface model: to estimate site-specific ground elevation by using the validated EDEN water-surface model and observed water depth data; and to create water-depth hydrographs for tree islands. We found that there are no statistically significant differences between model-predicted and field-observed water-stage data in both southern Water Conservation Area (WCA) 3A and WCA 3B. Tree island elevations were derived by subtracting field water-depth measurements from the predicted EDEN water-surface. Water-depth hydrographs were then computed by subtracting tree island elevations from the EDEN water stage. Overall, the model is reliable by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.31 cm. By region, the RMSE is 2.49 cm and 7.77 cm in WCA 3A and 3B, respectively. This new landscape-scale hydrological model has wide applications for ongoing research and management efforts that are vital to restoration of the Florida Everglades. The accurate, high-resolution hydrological data, generated over broad spatial and temporal scales by the EDEN model, provides a previously missing key to understanding the habitat requirements and linkages among native and invasive populations, including fish, wildlife, wading birds, and plants. The EDEN model is a powerful tool that could be adapted for other ecosystem-scale restoration and management programs worldwide.

The Spanish translation, cultural adaptation and validation of the Powe Fatalism Inventory

Background/significance. The scarcity of reliable and valid Spanish language instruments for health related research has hindered research with the Hispanic population. Research suggests that fatalistic attitudes are related to poor cancer screening behaviors and may be one reason for low participation of Mexican-Americans in cancer screening. This problem is of major concern because Mexican-Americans constitute the largest Hispanic subgroup in the U.S.^ Purpose. The purposes of this study were: (1) To translate the Powe Fatalism Inventory, (PFI) into Spanish, and culturally adapt the instrument to the Mexican-American culture as found along the U.S.-Mexico border and (2) To test the equivalence between the Spanish translated, culturally adapted version of the PFI and the English version of the PFI to include clarity, content validity, reading level and reliability.^ Design. Descriptive, cross-sectional.^ Methods. The Spanish language translation used a translation model which incorporates a cultural adaptation process. The SPFI was administered to 175 bilingual participants residing in a midsize, U.S-Mexico border city. Data analysis included estimation of Cronbach's alpha, factor analysis, paired samples t-test comparison and multiple regression analysis using SPSS software, as well as measurement of content validity and reading level of the SPFI. ^ Findings. A reliability estimate using Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.81 for the SPFI compared to 0.80 for the PFI in this study. Factor Analysis extracted four factors which explained 59% of the variance. Paired t-test comparison revealed no statistically significant differences between the SPFI and PFI total or individual item scores. Content Validity Index was determined to be 1.0. Reading Level was assessed to be less than a 6th grade reading level. The correlation coefficient between the SPFI and PFI was 0.95.^ Conclusions. This study provided strong psychometric evidence that the Spanish translated, culturally adapted SPFI is an equivalent tool to the English version of the PFI in measuring cancer fatalism. This indicates that the two forms of the instrument can be used interchangeably in a single study to accommodate reading and speaking abilities of respondents. ^

Translation and cultural adaptation of the Stigma-Devaluation scale for use among family caregivers of mentally ill relatives in Jordan

Background/significance. Mental illness stigma is a matter of great concern to family caregivers. Few research studies have been conducted in the Arab World on family caregivers' perception of stigma associated with caring for a mentally ill relative. Review of the literature on measurement of the concept of stigma related to caring for a mentally ill relative yielded no instrument appropriate for use in a Jordanian sample. Reliable and valid instruments to measure stigma perception among family caregivers are needed for research and practice, particularly in Arabic speaking populations. ^ Purpose. The purposes of this study were: (1) translate the Stigma-Devaluation scale (SDS) into Arabic, modifying it to accurately reflect the cultural parameters specific to Jordan, and (2) test the reliability, the content and construct validity of the Arabic version of the SDS for use among a sample of family members of mentally ill relatives in Jordan. ^ Design. Methodologic, cross-sectional. ^ Methods. The SDS was translated into Arabic language, modified and culturally adapted to the Jordanian culture by a translation model which incorporates a cultural adaptation process. The Arabic SDS was evaluated in a sample of 164 family caregivers in the outpatient mental health clinic in Irbid-Jordan. Cronbach's alpha estimation of internal consistency was used to assess the reliability of the SDS. Construct validity was determined by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Measurements of content validity and reading level of the Arabic SDS were included. ^ Findings. Content Validity Index was determined to be 1.0. Reading level of the Arabic SDS was considered at a 6th grade or lower Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the modified Arabic SDS total scale was .87. Initial results of CFA did not fully support the proposed factor structures of the SDS or its subscales. After modifications, the indices indicated that the modified model of each subscale had satisfactory fit. ^ Conclusion. This study provided psychometric evidence that the modified Arabic SDS translated and culturally adapted instrument, is valid and conceptually consistent with the content of the original English SDS in measuring stigma perception among families of mentally ill relatives in Jordan. ^

Validation of an instrument for assessing the medicolegal death investigation system: A public health approach

Background. This study validated the content of an instrument designed to assess the performance of the medicolegal death investigation system. The instrument was modified from Version 2.0 of the Local Public Health System Performance Assessment Instrument (CDC) and is based on the 10 Essential Public Health Services. ^ Aims. The aims were to employ a cognitive testing process to interview a randomized sample of medicolegal death investigation office leaders, qualitatively describe the results, and revise the instrument accordingly. ^ Methods. A cognitive testing process was used to validate the survey instrument's content in terms of the how well participants could respond to and interpret the questions. Twelve randomly selected medicolegal death investigation chiefs (or equivalent) that represented the seven types of medicolegal death investigation systems and six different state mandates were interviewed by telephone. The respondents also were representative of the educational diversity within medicolegal death investigation leadership. Based on respondent comments, themes were identified that permitted improvement of the instrument toward collecting valid and reliable information when ultimately used in a field survey format. ^ Results. Responses were coded and classified, which permitted the identification of themes related to Comprehension/Interpretation, Retrieval, Estimate/Judgment, and Response. The majority of respondent comments related to Comprehension/Interpretation of the questions. Respondents identified 67 questions and 6 section explanations that merited rephrasing, adding, or deleting examples or words. In addition, five questions were added based on respondent comments. ^ Conclusion. The content of the instrument was validated by cognitive testing method design. The respondents agreed that the instrument would be a useful and relevant tool for assessing system performance. ^

Process evaluation of intervention program for prevention of early sexual activity and alcohol use among Hispanic teenagers

Hispanic teens are a high-risk population for initiation of early sexual activity and alcohol use which in turn has numerous social and health consequences. One strategy to address prevention of these behaviors is to implement a capacity building intervention that promotes parent child communication, encompasses their cultural values and community participation. This study describes the process evaluation of a pilot intervention program amongst Hispanic teens and their families living along the Texas-Mexico border. “Girls Lets Talk” is a small group intervention with 10-14 year old teens and their female adult family members that involves education regarding effects of alcohol use and sexual activity as well as activities for monitoring and refusal skills to prevent risky behaviors. Two waves of the program each consisting of at least seven mother daughter dyads were conducted. During the designing process, community advisory board meetings and focus groups were held to review course materials and ensure they were appropriate to the Mexican American culture. Parent and adolescent surveys were administered at the beginning and end of the intervention to assess for psychosocial outcome variables. All sessions received high mean satisfactory scores (mean of 4.00 or better on a five point scale) for both adult and adolescent participants. Qualitative feedback was obtained via debriefing sessions to evaluate experience as well as alter recruitment strategies. A Wilcoxon Sign Rank analysis of the pre and post intervention surveys was done that showed significant changes in some outcome variables such as intentions and confidence for monitoring behaviors for adults and beliefs regarding sexual activity. “Girls Lets Talk” is a promising example of how a process evaluation plan can help develop a theory based health promotion program using the community based participatory research approach. The intervention may also be effective in altering intentions and enhancing self-efficacy among parents and teens in order to decrease risky behaviors such as early sexual activity and alcohol use.^

Secchi depth maps for the Baltic Sea, 2003-2012, with links to GeoTIFs

Secchi depth is a measure of water transparency. In the Baltic Sea region, Secchi depth maps are used to assess eutrophication and as input for habitat models. Due to their spatial and temporal coverage, satellite data would be the most suitable data source for such maps. But the Baltic Sea's optical properties are so different from the open ocean that globally calibrated standard models suffer from large errors. Regional predictive models that take the Baltic Sea's special optical properties into account are thus needed. This paper tests how accurately generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) with MODIS/Aqua and auxiliary data as inputs can predict Secchi depth at a regional scale. It uses cross-validation to test the prediction accuracy of hundreds of GAMs and GLMs with up to 5 input variables. A GAM with 3 input variables (chlorophyll a, remote sensing reflectance at 678 nm, and long-term mean salinity) made the most accurate predictions. Tested against field observations not used for model selection and calibration, the best model's mean absolute error (MAE) for daily predictions was 1.07 m (22%), more than 50% lower than for other publicly available Baltic Sea Secchi depth maps. The MAE for predicting monthly averages was 0.86 m (15%). Thus, the proposed model selection process was able to find a regional model with good prediction accuracy. It could be useful to find predictive models for environmental variables other than Secchi depth, using data from other satellite sensors, and for other regions where non-standard remote sensing models are needed for prediction and mapping. Annual and monthly mean Secchi depth maps for 2003-2012 come with this paper as Supplementary materials.

Global Scale Impacts

Global scale impacts modify the physical or thermal state of a substantial fraction of a target asteroid. Specific effects include accretion, family formation, reshaping, mixing and layering, shock and frictional heating, fragmentation, material compaction, dilatation, stripping of mantle and crust, and seismic degradation. Deciphering the complicated record of global scale impacts, in asteroids and meteorites, will lead us to understand the original planet-forming process and its resultant populations, and their evolution in time as collisions became faster and fewer. We provide a brief overview of these ideas, and an introduction to models.

Mathematical model for manoeuvrability of a riverine support patrol vessel with a pump-jet propulsion system

A study on the manoeuvrability of a riverine support patrol vessel is made to derive a mathematical model and simulate maneuvers with this ship. The vessel is mainly characterized by both its wide-beam and the unconventional propulsion system, that is, a pump-jet type azimuthal propulsion. By processing experimental data and the ship characteristics with diverse formulae to find the proper hydrodynamic coefficients and propulsion forces, a system of three differential equations is completed and tuned to carry out simulations of the turning test. The simulation is able to accept variable speed, jet angle and water depth as input parameters and its output consists of time series of the state variables and a plot of the simulated path and heading of the ship during the maneuver. Thanks to the data of full-scale trials previously performed with the studied vessel, a process of validation was made, which shows a good fit between simulated and full-scale experimental results, especially on the turning diameter

Uso de DES y RANS no estacionario para la simulación del flujo alrededor de una carena Wigley - Use of Unsteady RANS and DES to simulate flows around a Wigley Hull)

Computer Fluid Dynamics tools have already become a valuable instrument for Naval Architects during the ship design process, thanks to their accuracy and the available computer power. Unfortunately, the development of RANSE codes, generally used when viscous effects play a major role in the flow, has not reached a mature stage, being the accuracy of the turbulence models and the free surface representation the most important sources of uncertainty. Another level of uncertainty is added when the simulations are carried out for unsteady flows, as those generally studied in seakeeping and maneuvering analysis and URANS equations solvers are used. Present work shows the applicability and the benefits derived from the use of new approaches for the turbulence modeling (Detached Eddy Simulation) and the free surface representation (Level Set) on the URANS equations solver CFDSHIP-Iowa. Compared to URANS, DES is expected to predict much broader frequency contents and behave better in flows where boundary layer separation plays a major role. Level Set methods are able to capture very complex free surface geometries, including breaking and overturning waves. The performance of these improvements is tested in set of fairly complex flows, generated by a Wigley hull at pure drift motion, with drift angle ranging from 10 to 60 degrees and at several Froude numbers to study the impact of its variation. Quantitative verification and validation are performed with the obtained results to guarantee their accuracy. The results show the capability of the CFDSHIP-Iowa code to carry out time-accurate simulations of complex flows of extreme unsteady ship maneuvers. The Level Set method is able to capture very complex geometries of the free surface and the use of DES in unsteady simulations highly improves the results obtained. Vortical structures and instabilities as a function of the drift angle and Fr are qualitatively identified. Overall analysis of the flow pattern shows a strong correlation between the vortical structures and free surface wave pattern. Karman-like vortex shedding is identified and the scaled St agrees well with the universal St value. Tip vortices are identified and the associated helical instabilities are analyzed. St using the hull length decreases with the increase of the distance along the vortex core (x), which is similar to results from other simulations. However, St scaled using distance along the vortex cores shows strong oscillations compared to almost constants for those previous simulations. The difference may be caused by the effect of the free-surface, grid resolution, and interaction between the tip vortex and other vortical structures, which needs further investigations. This study is exploratory in the sense that finer grids are desirable and experimental data is lacking for large α, especially for the local flow. More recently, high performance computational capability of CFDSHIP-Iowa V4 has been improved such that large scale computations are possible. DES for DTMB 5415 with bilge keels at α = 20º were conducted using three grids with 10M, 48M and 250M points. DES analysis for flows around KVLCC2 at α = 30º is analyzed using a 13M grid and compared with the results of DES on the 1.6M grid by. Both studies are consistent with what was concluded on grid resolution herein since dominant frequencies for shear-layer, Karman-like, horse-shoe and helical instabilities only show marginal variation on grid refinement. The penalties of using coarse grids are smaller frequency amplitude and less resolved TKE. Therefore finer grids should be used to improve V&V for resolving most of the active turbulent scales for all different Fr and α, which hopefully can be compared with additional EFD data for large α when it becomes available.

Repeatability and Two-Dimensionality of Model Scale Sloshing Impacts

Canonical test cases for sloshing wave impact problems are pre-sented and discussed. In these cases the experimental setup has been simpli?ed seeking the highest feasible repeatability; a rectangular tank subjected to harmonic roll motion has been the tested con?guration. Both lateral and roof impacts have been studied, since both cases are relevant in sloshing assessment and show speci?c dynamics. An analysis of the impact pressure of the ?rst four impact events is provided in all cases. It has been found that not in all cases a Gaussian ?tting of each individual peak is feasible. The tests have been conducted with both water and oil in order to obtain high and moderate Reynolds number data; the latter may be useful as simpler test cases to assess the capabilities of CFD codes in simulating sloshing impacts. The re-peatability of impact pressure values increases dramatically when using oil. In addition, a study of the two-dimensionality of the problem using a tank con?guration that can be adjusted to 4 di?erent thicknesses has been carried out. Though the kinemat-ics of the free surface does not change signi cantly in some of the cases, the impact pressure values of the ?rst impact events changes substantially from the small to the large aspect ratios thus meaning that attention has to be paid to this issue when reference data is used for validation of 2D and 3D CFD codes.

A big data platform for large scale event processing

To date, big data applications have focused on the store-and-process paradigm. In this paper we describe an initiative to deal with big data applications for continuous streams of events. In many emerging applications, the volume of data being streamed is so large that the traditional ‘store-then-process’ paradigm is either not suitable or too inefficient. Moreover, soft-real time requirements might severely limit the engineering solutions. Many scenarios fit this description. In network security for cloud data centres, for instance, very high volumes of IP packets and events from sensors at firewalls, network switches and routers and servers need to be analyzed and should detect attacks in minimal time, in order to limit the effect of the malicious activity over the IT infrastructure. Similarly, in the fraud department of a credit card company, payment requests should be processed online and need to be processed as quickly as possible in order to provide meaningful results in real-time. An ideal system would detect fraud during the authorization process that lasts hundreds of milliseconds and deny the payment authorization, minimizing the damage to the user and the credit card company.