975 resultados para Ruin probability


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A passive haemagglutination test (PHA) for human neurocysticercosis was standardized and evaluated for the detection of specific antibodies to Cysticercus cellulosae in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). For the assay, formaldehyde-treated group O Rh-human red cells coated with the cysticerci crude total saline extract (TS) antigen were employed. A total of 115 CSF samples from patients with neurocysticercosis was analysed, of these 94 presented reactivity, corresponding to 81.7% sensitivity, in which confidence limit of 95% probability (CL95%) ranged from 74.5% to 88.9%. Eighty-nine CSF samples derived from individuals of control group presented as nonreactive in 94.4% (CL95% from 89.6% to 99.2%). The positive and negative predictive values were 1.4% and 99.9%, respectively, considering the mean rate of that this assay provide a rapid, highly reproducible, and moderately sensitive mean of detecting specific antibodies in CSF samples.

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia da Manutenção

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica /Energia

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

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Naturwissenschaften 94,367–374

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Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values of selected clinical signs and symptoms in the diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni infection were evaluated in 403 individuals (69% of inhabitants over 1 year of age) in an endemic area in Brazil (Divino). Highest sensitivity (13%) was found for blood in stools. Specificity over 90% was found for blood in stools, palpable liver with normal consistency and palpable hardened liver at middle clavicular (MCL) or middle sternal lines (MSL). Hardened liver at MSL (83%) or MCL (75%), and blood in stools (78%) presented higher positive predictive values for S. mansoni infection, while palpable liver with normal consistency at MCL (45%) or MSL (48%) presented smaller values. Enlarged liver without specification of its consistency has been traditionally used as an indicator of the infection in areas where malaria or Kalazar are not endemic. Our results demonstrate that the probability that a person with blood in stools or hardened palpable liver is infected is higher than among those with palpable liver with normal consistency.

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In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

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(l) The Pacific basin (Pacific area) may be regarded as moving eastwards like a double zip fastener relative to the continents and their respective plates (Pangaea area): opening in the East and closing in the West. This movement is tracked by a continuous mountain belt, the collision ages of which increase westwards. (2) The relative movements between the Pacific area and the Pangaea area in the W-E/E-W direction are generated by tidal forces (principle of hypocycloid gearing), whereby the lower mantle and the Pacific basin or area (Pacific crust = roof of the lower mantle?) rotate somewhat faster eastwards around the Earth's spin axis relative to the upper mantle/crust system with the continents and their respective plates (Pangaea area) (differential rotation). (3) These relative West to East/East to West displacements produce a perpetually existing sequence of distinct styles of opening and closing ocean basins, exemplified by the present East to West arrangement of ocean basins around the globe (Oceanic or Wilson Cycle: Rift/Red Sea style; Atlantic style; Mediterranean/Caribbean style as eastwards propagating tongue of the Pacific basin; Pacific style; Collision/Himalayas style). This sequence of ocean styles, of which the Pacific ocean is a part, moves eastwards with the lower mantle relative to the continents and the upper-mantle/crust of the Pangaea area. (4) Similarly, the collisional mountain belt extending westwards from the equator to the West of the Pacific and representing a chronological sequence of collision zones (sequential collisions) in the wake of the passing of the Pacific basin double zip fastener, may also be described as recording the history of oceans and their continental margins in the form of successive Wilson Cycles. (5) Every 200 to 250 m.y. the Pacific basin double zip fastener, the sequence of ocean styles of the Wilson Cycle and the eastwards growing collisional mountain belt in their wake complete one lap around the Earth. Two East drift lappings of 400 to 500 m.y. produce a two-lap collisional mountain belt spiral around a supercontinent in one hemisphere (North or South Pangaea). The Earth's history is subdivided into alternating North Pangaea growth/South Pangaea breakup eras and South Pangaea growth/North Pangaea breakup eras. Older North and South Pangaeas and their collisional mountain belt spirals may be reconstructed by rotating back the continents and orogenic fragments of a broken spiral (e.g. South Pangaea, Gondwana) to their previous Pangaea growth era orientations. In the resulting collisional mountain belt spiral, pieced together from orogenic segments and fragments, the collision ages have to increase successively towards the West. (6) With its current western margin orientated in a West-East direction North America must have collided during the Late Cretaceous Laramide orogeny with the northern margin of South America (Caribbean Andes) at the equator to the West of the Late Mesozoic Pacific. During post-Laramide times it must have rotated clockwise into its present orientation. The eastern margin of North America has never been attached to the western margin of North Africa but only to the western margin of Europe. (7) Due to migration eastwards of the sequence of ocean styles of the Wilson Cycle, relative to a distinct plate tectonic setting of an ocean, a continent or continental margin, a future or later evolutionary style at the Earth's surface is always depicted in a setting simultaneously developed further to the West and a past or earlier style in a setting simultaneously occurring further to the East. In consequence, ahigh probability exists that up to the Early Tertiary, Greenland (the ArabiaofSouth America?) occupied a plate tectonic setting which is comparable to the current setting of Arabia (the Greenland of Africa?). The Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary Eureka collision zone (Eureka orogeny) at the northern margin of the Greenland Plate and on some of the Canadian Arctic Islands is comparable with the Middle to Late Tertiary Taurus-Bitlis-Zagros collision zone at the northern margin of the Arabian Plate.

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Recent changes in the operation and planning of power systems have been motivated by the introduction of Distributed Generation (DG) and Demand Response (DR) in the competitive electricity markets' environment, with deep concerns at the efficiency level. In this context, grid operators, market operators, utilities and consumers must adopt strategies and methods to take full advantage of demand response and distributed generation. This requires that all the involved players consider all the market opportunities, as the case of energy and reserve components of electricity markets. The present paper proposes a methodology which considers the joint dispatch of demand response and distributed generation in the context of a distribution network operated by a virtual power player. The resources' participation can be performed in both energy and reserve contexts. This methodology contemplates the probability of actually using the reserve and the distribution network constraints. Its application is illustrated in this paper using a 32-bus distribution network with 66 DG units and 218 consumers classified into 6 types of consumers.

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In this study, the concentration probability distributions of 82 pharmaceutical compounds detected in the effluents of 179 European wastewater treatment plants were computed and inserted into a multimedia fate model. The comparative ecotoxicological impact of the direct emission of these compounds from wastewater treatment plants on freshwater ecosystems, based on a potentially affected fraction (PAF) of species approach, was assessed to rank compounds based on priority. As many pharmaceuticals are acids or bases, the multimedia fate model accounts for regressions to estimate pH-dependent fate parameters. An uncertainty analysis was performed by means of Monte Carlo analysis, which included the uncertainty of fate and ecotoxicity model input variables, as well as the spatial variability of landscape characteristics on the European continental scale. Several pharmaceutical compounds were identified as being of greatest concern, including 7 analgesics/anti-inflammatories, 3 β-blockers, 3 psychiatric drugs, and 1 each of 6 other therapeutic classes. The fate and impact modelling relied extensively on estimated data, given that most of these compounds have little or no experimental fate or ecotoxicity data available, as well as a limited reported occurrence in effluents. The contribution of estimated model input variables to the variance of freshwater ecotoxicity impact, as well as the lack of experimental abiotic degradation data for most compounds, helped in establishing priorities for further testing. Generally, the effluent concentration and the ecotoxicity effect factor were the model input variables with the most significant effect on the uncertainty of output results.

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Artigo científico disponível actualmente em Early View (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue)

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Trabalho de projeto apresentado à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Publicidade e Marketing.

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Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN) is the most convenient, cost-effective, accurate, and non-invasive technology for e-health monitoring. The performance of WBAN may be disturbed when coexisting with other wireless networks. Accordingly, this paper provides a comprehensive study and in-depth analysis of coexistence issues and interference mitigation solutions in WBAN technologies. A thorough survey of state-of-the art research in WBAN coexistence issues is conducted. The survey classified, discussed, and compared the studies according to the parameters used to analyze the coexistence problem. Solutions suggested by the studies are then classified according to the followed techniques and concomitant shortcomings are identified. Moreover, the coexistence problem in WBAN technologies is mathematically analyzed and formulas are derived for the probability of successful channel access for different wireless technologies with the coexistence of an interfering network. Finally, extensive simulations are conducted using OPNET with several real-life scenarios to evaluate the impact of coexistence interference on different WBAN technologies. In particular, three main WBAN wireless technologies are considered: IEEE 802.15.6, IEEE 802.15.4, and low-power WiFi. The mathematical analysis and the simulation results are discussed and the impact of interfering network on the different wireless technologies is compared and analyzed. The results show that an interfering network (e.g., standard WiFi) has an impact on the performance of WBAN and may disrupt its operation. In addition, using low-power WiFi for WBANs is investigated and proved to be a feasible option compared to other wireless technologies.

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Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira.

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Risk Based Inspection (RBI) is a risk methodology used as the basis for prioritizing and managing the efforts for an inspection program allowing the allocation of resources to provide a higher level of coverage on physical assets with higher risk. The main goal of RBI is to increase equipment availability while improving or maintaining the accepted level of risk. This paper presents the concept of risk, risk analysis and RBI methodology and shows an approach to determine the optimal inspection frequency for physical assets based on the potential risk and mainly on the quantification of the probability of failure. It makes use of some assumptions in a structured decision making process. The proposed methodology allows an optimization of inspection intervals deciding when the first inspection must be performed as well as the subsequent intervals of inspection. A demonstrative example is also presented to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.