Hawtreyan “Credit Deadlock” or Keynesian “Liquidity Trap”? Lessons for Japan from the Great Depression

This paper outlines the ideas of Ralph Hawtrey and Lauchlin Currie on the need for monetised fiscal deficit spending in 1930s USA to combat the deep depression into which the economy had been allowed to sink. In such exceptional circumstances of “credit deadlock” in which banks were afraid to lend and households and business afraid to borrow, the deadlock could best be broken through the spending of new money into circulation via large fiscal deficits. This complementarity of fiscal and monetary policy was shown to be essential, and as such indicates the potential power of monetary policy – in contrast to the Keynesian “liquidity trap” view that it is powerless This lesson was not learned by the Japanese authorities in their response to the asset price collapse of 1991-92, resulting in a lost decade as ballooning fiscal deficits were neutralised throughout the 1990s by unhelpfully tight monetary policy with the Bank of Japan refusing to monetise the deficits.

New Evidence on Allyn Young’s Style and Influence as a Teacher

This paper publishes the hitherto unpublished correspondence between Allyn Abbott Young’s biographer Charles Blitch and 17 of Young’s former students or associates. Together with related biographical and archival material, the paper shows the way in which this adds to our knowledge of Young’s considerable influence as a teacher upon some of the twentieth century’s greatest economists. The correspondents are as follows: James W Angell, Colin Clark, Arthur H Cole, Lauchlin Currie, Melvin G de Chazeau, Eleanor Lansing Dulles, Howard S Ellis, Frank W Fetter, Earl J Hamilton, Seymour S Harris, Richard S Howey, Nicholas Kaldor, Melvin M Knight

An Archival Case Study: Revisiting The Life and Political Economy of Lauchlin Currie

This paper forms part of a wider project to show the significance of archival material on distinguished economists, in this case Lauchlin Currie (1902-93), who studied and taught at Harvard before entering government service at the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Board as the intellectual leader of Roosevelt’s New Deal, 1934-39, as FDR’s White House economic adviser in peace and war, 1939-45, and as a post-war development economist. It discusses the uses made of the written and oral material available when the author was writing his intellectual biography of Currie (Duke University Press 1990) while Currie was still alive, and the significance of the material that has come to light after Currie’s death.

Solovian and New Growth Theory from the Perspective of Allyn Young on Macroeconomic Increasing Returns

This paper evaluates, from an Allyn Youngian perspective, the neoclassical Solow model of growth and the associated empirical estimates of the sources of growth based on it. It attempts to clarify Young’s particular concept of generalised or macroeconomic “increasing returns” to show the limitations of a model of growth based on an assumption that the aggregate production function is characterised by constant returns to scale but “augmented” by exogenous technical progress. Young’s concept of endogenous, self-sustaining growth is also shown to differ in important respects (including in its policy implications) from modern endogenous growth theory.

Trade in bilateral oligopoly with endogenous market formation

We study a strategic market game in which traders are endowed with both a good and money and can choose whether to buy or sell the good. We derive conditions under which a non-autarkic equilibrium exists and when the only equilibrium is autarky. Autarky is ‘nice’ (robust to small perturbations in the game) when it is the only equilibrium, and ‘very nice’ (robust to large perturbations) when no gains from trade exist. We characterize economies where autarky is nice but not very nice; that is, when gains from trade exist and yet no trade takes place.

Social Housing Policies in Latin America and Singapore: Lessons for China

This paper addresses the challenges facing China in accelerating the pace of rural-urban migration as part of its on-going economic development programme. It explains the push and pull influences on migration and in particular explains why a continuing focus on urbanisation is justified by the very large gap between rural and urban incomes and the relatively higher income elasticity of demand for urban-based goods and services. The provision of affordable housing is an integral part of this structural shift programme. The paper thus considers the most appropriate ways in which housing finance can be mobilised, and thence how both the quality and the affordability of the housing stock can be increased. Positive and negative lessons for China are offered from the different urbanisation experiences of Latin America (especially Colombia) and Singapore.

Gas6 and its receptors are implicated in sepsis as modulators of innate immunity

Gas6 downregulates the activation state of macrophages and thereby their production of proinflammatory cytokines induced by various stimuli. We aimed to determine whether Gas6 is involved in sepsis. We measured Gas6 plasma levels in 13 healthy subjects, 29 patients with severe sepsis, and 18 patients with non-infectious inflammatory diseases. Gas6 level was higher in septic patients than in control groups (P 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity of Gas6 levels to predict fatal outcome were 83% and 88%. We next investigated whether Gas6 affects cytokine production and outcome in experimental models of endotoxemia and peritonitis in wild-type (WT) and Gas6-/- mice. Circulating levels of Gas6 after LPS 25mg/kg i.p. peaked at 1 hour (P<0.001). Similarly, TNF- was higher in Gas6-/- than in WT mice 1 hour after LPS (P<0.05). Furthermore, 62 anti- and pro-inflammatory cytokines were quantified in plasma after LPS injection. Their levels were globally higher in Gas6-/- plasma after LPS, 47/62 cytokines being at least 50% higher in Gas6-/- than in WT plasma after 1 hour. Mortality induced by 25mg/kg LPS was 25% in WT versus 87% in Gas6-/- mice (P<0.05). LPS-induced mortality in Gas6 receptors Axl-/-, Tyro3-/- and Merkd was also enhanced when compared to WT mice (P<0.001). In peritonitis models (cecal ligation and puncture, CLP, and i.p. injection of E. coli), Gas6 plasma levels increased and remained elevated at least 24 hours. CLP increased mortality in Gas6-/- mice. Finally, we explored the role of Gas6 in LPS-treated macrophages. We found that Gas6 was released by LPS-stimulated WT macrophages and that Gas6-/- macrophages produced more TNF- and IL-6 than WT macrophages. Cytokine release by Gas6-/- macrophages was higher than by WT macrophages (cytokine array). Adjunction of recombinant Gas6 to the culture medium of Gas6-/- macrophages diminished the cytokine production to WT levels. In LPS-treated Gas6-/- macrophages, Akt and Erk1/2 phosphorylation was reduced whereas p38 and NF B activation was enhanced. Thus, in septic patients, elevated Gas6 levels were associated with fatal outcome. In mice, they raised in experimental endotoxemia and peritonitis models, and correlated also with sepsis severity. However, Gas6-/- mice survival in these models was reduced compared to WT. Gas6 secreted by macrophages in response to LPS activated Akt and restrained p38 and NF B activation, thereby dampening macrophage activation. Altogether these data suggest that, during endotoxemia, Gas6-/- mice phenotype resembles that of mice which have undergone PI3K inhibition, indicating that Gas6 is a major modulator of innate immunity.

Okun’s law – A meta analysis

This paper seeks to identify whether there is a representative empirical Okun’s Law coefficient (OLC) and to measure its size. We carry out a meta regression analysis on a sample of 269 estimates of the OLC to uncover reasons for differences in empirical results and to estimate the ‘true’ OLC. On statistical (and other) grounds, we find it appropriate to investigate two separate subsamples, using respectively (some measure of) unemployment or output as dependent variable. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of type II publication bias in both sub-samples, but a type I bias is present only among the papers using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Second, after correction for publication bias, authentic and statistically significant OLC effects are present in both sub-samples. Third, bias-corrected estimated true OLCs are significantly lower (in absolute value) with models using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Using a bivariate MRA approach, the estimated true effects are -0.25 for the unemployment sub-sample and -0.61 for the output-sub sample; with a multivariate MRA methodology, the estimated true effects are -0.40 and -1.02 for the unemployment and the output-sub samples respectively.

How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient?

How does technical change influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient? Using a nonlinear version of Okun’s Law augmented with technical change and technological distance, we show that the impact of output movements on unemployment variations is influenced by the imitation or innovation origins of technical change

The convenient calculation of some test statistics in models of discrete choice

The paper considers the use of artificial regression in calculating different types of score test when the log

Bilateral oligopoly and quantity competition

Bilateral oligopoly is a strategic market game with two commodities, allowing strategic behavior on both sides of the market. When the number of buyers is large, such a game approximates a game of quantity competition played by sellers. We present examples which show that this is not typically a Cournot game. Rather, we introduce an alternative game of quantity competition (the market share game) and, appealing to results in the literature on contests, show that this yields the same equilibria as the many-buyer limit of bilateral oligopoly, under standard assumptions on costs and preferences. We also show that the market share and Cournot games have the same equilibria if and only if the price elasticity of the latter is one. These results lead to necessary and sufficient conditions for the Cournot game to be a good approximation to bilateral oligopoly with many buyers and to an ordering of total output when they are not satisfied.

The sirtuin inhibitor cambinol impairs MAPK signaling, inhibits inflammatory and innate immune responses and protects from septic shock.

Sirtuins (SIRT1-7) are NAD(+)-dependent histone deacetylases (HDACs) that play an important role in the control of metabolism and proliferation and the development of age-associated diseases like oncologic, cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases. Cambinol was originally described as a compound inhibiting the activity of SIRT1 and SIRT2, with efficient anti-tumor activity in vivo. Here, we studied the effects of cambinol on microbial sensing by mouse and human immune cells and on host innate immune responses in vivo. Cambinol inhibited the expression of cytokines (TNF, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-12p40, and IFN-γ), NO and CD40 by macrophages, dendritic cells, splenocytes and whole blood stimulated with a broad range of microbial and inflammasome stimuli. Sirtinol, an inhibitor of SIRT1 and SIRT2 structurally related to cambinol, also decreased macrophage response to TLR stimulation. On the contrary, selective inhibitors of SIRT1 (EX-527 and CHIC-35) and SIRT2 (AGK2 and AK-7) used alone or in combination had no inhibitory effect, suggesting that cambinol and sirtinol act by targeting more than just SIRT1 and SIRT2. Cambinol and sirtinol at anti-inflammatory concentrations also did not inhibit SIRT6 activity in in vitro assay. At the molecular level, cambinol impaired stimulus-induced phosphorylation of MAPKs and upstream MEKs. Going well along with its powerful anti-inflammatory activity, cambinol reduced TNF blood levels and bacteremia and improved survival in preclinical models of endotoxic shock and septic shock. Altogether, our data suggest that pharmacological inhibitors of sirtuins structurally related to cambinol may be of clinical interest to treat inflammatory diseases.

Virtualització dels serveis d'una empresa

La virtualització és una tecnologia que permet l’abstracció del programari respecte dels recursos del maquinari, tant d’aplicacions com del sistema operatiu. Aquesta tecnologia està constantment en evolució, i el que fa pocs anys era un entorn de treball exclusiu per test de laboratori i aplicacions molt especifiques, ara permet oferir aplicacions i serveis d'entorns empresarials, permetent aprofitar el màxim els recursos disponibles. Aquest projecte tracta de plantejar la virtualització com a solució per a maximitzar el rendiments dels equips informàtics de una empresa. Introduirem la tecnologia de virtualització, planificarem la conversió dels serveis de l’empresa en màquines virtuals, detallarem els aspectes tècnics de la implementació i mostrarem els resultats d’aquesta virtualització.