Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT)

Previous work has identified several short-comings in the ability of four spring wheat and one barley model to simulate crop processes and resource utilization. This can have important implications when such models are used within systems models where final soil water and nitrogen conditions of one crop define the starting conditions of the following crop. In an attempt to overcome these limitations and to reconcile a range of modelling approaches, existing model components that worked demonstrably well were combined with new components for aspects where existing capabilities were inadequate. This resulted in the Integrated Wheat Model (I_WHEAT), which was developed as a module of the cropping systems model APSIM. To increase predictive capability of the model, process detail was reduced, where possible, by replacing groups of processes with conservative, biologically meaningful parameters. I_WHEAT does not contain a soil water or soil nitrogen balance. These are present as other modules of APSIM. In I_WHEAT, yield is simulated using a linear increase in harvest index whereby nitrogen or water limitations can lead to early termination of grainfilling and hence cessation of harvest index increase. Dry matter increase is calculated either from the amount of intercepted radiation and radiation conversion efficiency or from the amount of water transpired and transpiration efficiency, depending on the most limiting resource. Leaf area and tiller formation are calculated from thermal time and a cultivar specific phyllochron interval. Nitrogen limitation first reduces leaf area and then affects radiation conversion efficiency as it becomes more severe. Water or nitrogen limitations result in reduced leaf expansion, accelerated leaf senescence or tiller death. This reduces the radiation load on the crop canopy (i.e. demand for water) and can make nitrogen available for translocation to other organs. Sensitive feedbacks between light interception and dry matter accumulation are avoided by having environmental effects acting directly on leaf area development, rather than via biomass production. This makes the model more stable across environments without losing the interactions between the different external influences. When comparing model output with models tested previously using data from a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, yield and biomass predictions were equal to the best of those models, but improvements could be demonstrated for simulating leaf area dynamics in response to water and nitrogen supply, kernel nitrogen content, and total water and nitrogen use. I_WHEAT does not require calibration for any of the environments tested. Further model improvement should concentrate on improving phenology simulations, a more thorough derivation of coefficients to describe leaf area development and a better quantification of some processes related to nitrogen dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Capillary network models for transport in packed beds: Considerations of pore aspect ratio

The conventional analysis for the estimation of the tortuosity factor for transport in porous media is modified here to account for the effect of pore aspect ratio. Structural models of the porous medium are also constructed for calculating the aspect ratio as a function of porosity. Comparison of the model predictions with the extensive data of Currie (1960) for the effective diffusivity of hydrogen in packed beds shows good agreement with a network model of randomly oriented intersecting pores for porosities upto about 50 percent, which is the region of practical interest. The predictions based on this network model are also found to be in better agreement with the data of Currie than earlier expressions developed for unconsolidated and grainy media.

Two dimensional computational fluid dynamic models for waste stabilisation ponds

Traditional waste stabilisation pond (WSP) models encounter problems predicting pond performance because they cannot account for the influence of pond features, such as inlet structure or pond geometry, on fluid hydrodynamics. In this study, two dimensional (2-D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were compared to experimental residence time distributions (RTD) from literature. In one of the-three geometries simulated, the 2-D CFD model successfully predicted the experimental RTD. However, flow patterns in the other two geometries were not well described due to the difficulty of representing the three dimensional (3-D) experimental inlet in the 2-D CFD model, and the sensitivity of the model results to the assumptions used to characterise the inlet. Neither a velocity similarity nor geometric similarity approach to inlet representation in 2-D gave results correlating with experimental data. However. it was shown that 2-D CFD models were not affected by changes in values of model parameters which are difficult to predict, particularly the turbulent inlet conditions. This work suggests that 2-D CFD models cannot be used a priori to give an adequate description of the hydrodynamic patterns in WSP. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response (re-)programming in aging: A kinematic analysis

Background. Age-related motor slowing may reflect either motor programming deficits, poorer movement execution, or mere strategic preferences for online guidance of movement. We controlled such preferences, limiting the extent to which movements could be programmed. Methods. Twenty-four young and 24 older adults performed a line drawing task that allowed movements to he prepared in advance in one case (i.e., cue initially available indicating target location) and not in another (i.e., no cue initially available as to target location). Participants connected large or small targets illuminated by light-emitting diodes upon a graphics tablet that sampled pen tip position at 200 Hz. Results. Older adults had a disproportionate difficulty initiating movement when prevented from programming in advance. Older adults produced slower, less efficient movements, particularly when prevented from programming under greater precision requirements. Conclusions. The slower movements of older adults do not simply reflect a preference for online control, as older adults have less efficient movements when forced to reprogram their movements. Age-related motor slowing kinematically resembles that seen in patients with cerebellar dysfunction.

Delivery of multiple CD8 cytotoxic T cell epitopes by DNA vaccination

Development of CD8 alpha beta CTL epitope-based vaccines requires an effective strategy capable of co-delivering large numbers of CTL epitopes, Here we describe a DNA plasmid encoding a polyepitope or polytope protein, which contained multiple contiguous minimal murine CTL epitopes, Mice vaccinated with this plasmid made MHC-restricted CTL responses to each of the epitopes, and protective CTL were demonstrated in recombinant vaccinia virus, influenza virus, and tumor challenge models, CTL responses generated by polytope DNA plasmid vaccination lasted for 1 yr, could be enhanced by co-delivering a gene for granulocyte-macrophage CSF, and appeared to be induced in the absence of CD4 T cell-mediated help, The ability to deliver large numbers of CTL epitopes using relatively small polytope constructs and DNA vaccination technology should find application in the design of human epitope-based CTL vaccines, in particular in vaccines against EBV, HIV, and certain cancers.

Optical properties of metallic films for vertical-cavity optoelectronic devices

We present models for the optical functions of 11 metals used as mirrors and contacts in optoelectronic and optical devices: noble metals (Ag, Au, Cu), aluminum, beryllium, and transition metals (Cr, Ni, Pd, Pt, Ti, W). We used two simple phenomenological models, the Lorentz-Drude (LD) and the Brendel-Bormann (BB), to interpret both the free-electron and the interband parts of the dielectric response of metals in a wide spectral range from 0.1 to 6 eV. Our results show that the BE model was needed to describe appropriately the interband absorption in noble metals, while for Al, Be, and the transition metals both models exhibit good agreement with the experimental data. A comparison with measurements on surface normal structures confirmed that the reflectance and the phase change on reflection from semiconductor-metal interfaces (including the case of metallic multilayers) can be accurately described by use of the proposed models for the optical functions of metallic films and the matrix method for multilayer calculations. (C) 1998 Optical Society of America.

Critical values for unit root and cointegration test statistics - the use of response surface equations

This note considers the value of surface response equations which can be used to calculate critical values for a range of unit root and cointegration tests popular in applied economic research.

Truncation errors in finite difference models for solute transport equation with first-order reaction

The truncation errors associated with finite difference solutions of the advection-dispersion equation with first-order reaction are formulated from a Taylor analysis. The error expressions are based on a general form of the corresponding difference equation and a temporally and spatially weighted parametric approach is used for differentiating among the various finite difference schemes. The numerical truncation errors are defined using Peclet and Courant numbers and a new Sink/Source dimensionless number. It is shown that all of the finite difference schemes suffer from truncation errors. Tn particular it is shown that the Crank-Nicolson approximation scheme does not have second order accuracy for this case. The effects of these truncation errors on the solution of an advection-dispersion equation with a first order reaction term are demonstrated by comparison with an analytical solution. The results show that these errors are not negligible and that correcting the finite difference scheme for them results in a more accurate solution. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

alpha-Conotoxin ImI inhibits the alpha-bungarotoxin-resistant nicotinic response in bovine adrenal chromaffin cells

The activity of alpha-conotoxin (alpha-CTX) lml, from the vermivorous marine snail Conus imperialis, has been studied on mammalian nicotinic receptors on bovine chromaffin cells and at the rat neuromuscular junction. Synthetic alpha-CTX lml was a potent inhibitor of the neuronal[ nicotinic response in bovine adrenal chromaffin cells (IC50 = 2.5 mu M, log IC50 = 0.4 +/- 0.07), showing competitive inhibition of nicotine-evoked catecholamine secretion. (alpha-CTX lml also inhibited nicotine-evoked Ca-45(2+) uptake but not Ca-45(2+) uptake stimulated by 56 mM Kr. In contrast, alpha-CTX lml had no effect at the neuromuscular junction over the concentration range 1-20 mu M. Bovine chromaffin cells are known to contain the alpha 3 beta 4, alpha 7, and (possibly) alpha 3 beta 4 alpha 5 subtypes. However, the secretory response of bovine chromaffin cells is not inhibited by alpha-bungarotoxin, indicating that alpha 7 nicotinic receptors are not involved. We propose that alpha-CTX lml interacts selectively with the functional (alpha 3 beta 4 or alpha 3 beta 4 alpha 5) nicotinic acetylcholine receptor to inhibit the neuronal-type nicotinic response in bovine chromaffin cells.

Growth hormone binding protein correlates strongly with leptin and percentage body fat in GH-deficient adults, is increased by GH replacement but does not predict IGF-I response

GH-binding protein (GHBP) corresponds to the extracellular domain of the GH receptor (GHR) and has been shown to be closely related to body fat. This study aimed to examine the inter-relationship between GHBP, leptin and body fat, and to test the hypothesis that GHBP is modified by GH replacement in GH-deficient adults and predicts IGF-I response. Twenty adults, mean age 47 years (range 20-69) with proven GH deficiency were randomly allocated to either GH (up to 0.25 U/kg/week in daily doses) or placebo for 3 months before cross-over to the opposite treatment. Plasma GHBP and leptin were measured at baseline and 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks after each treatment. Whole body composition was measured at baseline by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). There was a strong correlation between baseline leptin and GHBP (r = 0.88, P < 0.0001) and between baseline GHBP and percentage body fat, (r = 0.83, P < 0.0001). Mean GHBP levels were higher on GH compared with placebo, 1.53 +/- 0.28 vs 1.41 +/- 0.25 nM, P = 0.049. There was no correlation between baseline IGF-I and GHBP (r = -0.049, P = 0.84), and GHBP did not predict IGF-I response to GH replacement. The close inter-relationship between GHBP, leptin and body fat suggests a possible role for GHBP in the regulation of body composition. GHBP is increased by GH replacement in GH-deficient adults, but does not predict biochemical response to GH replacement. (C) 1999 Churchill Livingstone.

Building better wildlife-habitat models

Wildlife-habitat models are an important tool in wildlife management toda?, and by far the majority of these predict aspects of species distribution (abundance or presence) as a proxy measure of habitat quality. Unfortunately, few are tested on independent data, and of those that are, few show useful predictive st;ill. We demonstrate that six critical assumptions underlie distribution based wildlife-habitat models, all of which must be valid for the model to predict habitat quality. We outline these assumptions in a mete-model, and discuss methods for their validation. Even where all sis assumptions show a high level of validity, there is still a strong likelihood that the model will not predict habitat quality. However, the meta-model does suggest habitat quality can be predicted more accurately if distributional data are ignored, and variables more indicative of habitat quality are modelled instead.

Phase diagram for a class of spin-1/2 Heisenberg models interpolating between the square-lattice, the triangular-lattice, and the linear-chain limits

We study the spin-1/2 Heisenberg models on an anisotropic two-dimensional lattice which interpolates between the square lattice at one end, a set of decoupled spin chains on the other end, and the triangular-lattice Heisenberg model in between. By series expansions around two different dimer ground states and around various commensurate and incommensurate magnetically ordered states, we establish the phase diagram for this model of a frustrated antiferromagnet. We find a particularly rich phase diagram due to the interplay of magnetic frustration, quantum fluctuations, and varying dimensionality. There is a large region of the usual two-sublattice Neel phase, a three-sublattice phase for the triangular-lattice model, a region of incommensurate magnetic order around the triangular-lattice model, and regions in parameter space where there is no magnetic order. We find that the incommensurate ordering wave vector is in general altered from its classical value by quantum fluctuations. The regime of weakly coupled chains is particularly interesting and appears to be nearly critical. [S0163-1829(99)10421-1].

Accuracy of predicting a child's response to potential threat: A comparison of children and their mothers

Considerable research has indicated that children and their parents often demonstrate marked discrepancies in their reporting of anxiety-related phenomena. In such cases, the question arises as to whether children are capable of accurately reporting on their anxiety. In the present study, 50 children (aged 5 to 14 years) were asked to approach a large, German Shepherd dog. Prior to the task, both the mother and child independently predicted the closest point likely to be reached by the child and the degree of anxiety likely to be experienced. These predictions were then compared with the actual phenomena displayed by the child during the task. On the behavioural measure (closest step reached), both the child and mother demonstrated equivalent predictive accuracy. On the subjective measure (fear ratings) children were considerably more accurate than their mothers. The data were not influenced by gender, age, or clinical status. The results indicate the ability of children to accurately predict their anxious responses, and support the value of incorporating children's self-reports in the assessment of emotional disorders.