934 resultados para Renda per capita : Brasil


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The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

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The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

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Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

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Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

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Uma das principais tendências mundiais ligadas ao processo de globalização é a expansão da agroindústria nos trópicos úmidos. Embora a agroindústria seja uma importante fonte de renda para o Brasil, a sua expansão está levando ao deslocamento das populações locais e ao desmatamento extensivo da vegetação primária. Nesse contexto, enfocamos uma segunda tendência, também resultante da globalização, que consiste no movimento das instituições financeiras em direção à responsabilidade social e ambiental, evidenciado pela inclusão de condições socioambientais nos empréstimos para o setor agrícola. Nesse trabalho, examinamos a experiência de empréstimo da Corporação Financeira Internacional ao Grupo Maggi do Brasil analisando o potencial desse tipo de instrumento econômico para ajudar a reduzir os impactos negativos da expansão agroindustrial. Também é enfocado como os diferentes atores que participam desse debate (organizações não governamentais, indústrias, setor financeiro e governo) podem ajudar a otimizar esse potencial.

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A presente pesquisa apresenta avaliação comparativa do impacto ambiental gerado por contextos habitacionais diferentes dentro do mesmo espaço urbano, no caso o bairro do Guamá, município de Belém, o contexto formal corresponde à ocupação da Av. José Bonifácio e o contexto de produção informal corresponde à comunidade do Riacho Doce. Na referida avaliação foram levados em consideração para investigação os seguintes aspectos: Consumo per capita de água, consumo per capita de esgoto, universalidade e equidade do fornecimento dos serviços de saneamento (abastecimento de água e esgotamento sanitário), tarifação de abastecimento de água, qualidade e acessibilidade dos serviços, contexto habitacional, aspectos socioambientais, com objetivo de caracterizar a população residente nessas áreas e finalmente estimar a carga orgânica (Kg de DBO/dia) e a vazão (m3/d) de efluentes domésticos gerados de assentamentos espontâneos e em uma área urbana consolidada, com o intuito de identificar qual contexto habitacional apresenta maior potencial de impacto em termos de geração de vazão e carga orgânica sobre a bacia receptora de efluentes, neste caso a Bacia do Tucunduba. Apesar dos resultados serem valores relativamente próximos, na área de Assentamento Espontâneo, a vazão de esgotos estimada 44,38 m3/dia e Carga Orgânica de 13,31 Kg de DBO/dia, e na área de Ocupação Formal a vazão de esgotos estimada 43,06 m3/dia e Carga Orgânica de 12,91 Kg de DBO/dia, foi possível observar neste trabalho que existe diferenciação do impacto ambiental gerado pelas duas áreas na bacia receptora no Igarapé Tucunduba, sendo maior no Riacho Doce onde a população permanece em contato com os efluentes e sob maior vulnerabilidade sanitária, pois, os efluentes da José Bonifácio são encaminhados pela rede de drenagem e sua carga orgânica é diluída pela vazão de águas pluviais ao chegarem ao Igarapé (distanciando a contaminação de sua fonte) e os efluentes do Riacho Doce são lançados in natura diretamente sob as casas e no Igarapé.

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A caça é uma atividade bastante importante para a manutenção das formas tradicionais de vida dos povos indígenas da Amazônia. Entretanto, quando esta atividade não é feita de forma sustentável a sua pressão pode acarretar em extinções locais e desequilíbrios no ecossistema. Este estudo visa caracterizar o uso da fauna cinegética em duas aldeias das etnias Wayana e Aparai no Parque Indígena do Tumucumaque, norte do Estado do Pará. Foram monitorados e entrevistados 29 caçadores em 60 dias de coleta de dados. As entrevistas permitiram levantar 45 espécies de mamíferos ocorrentes na área e também as principais espécies cinegéticas com suas respectivas temporadas de caça. Ao todo foram caçados 219 animais de 35 espécies diferentes, totalizando 2.558 Kg de biomassa. A espécie mais caçada foi Tayassu pecari (n=50; 1.350 Kg), em segundo Ateles paniscus (n=30; 261 Kg). A ave mais caçada foi o Crax alector (n=18; 58,5 Kg); e os lagarto Iguana iguana foi o réptil mais caçado (n=18; 37 Kg). Destes, todos estavam dentro dos pesos médios esperados. Apenas para I. iguana foi observado diferença estatística na razão sexual, e todos os A. paniscus abatidos eram fêmeas. As curvas de sobrevivência das espécies mais caçadas de mamíferos, T. pecari, A. paniscus, Cebus apella (n=16) e Cuniculus paca (n=12) apontam para uma caça centralizada em animais adultos e senis. As espécies favoritas, em ordem decrescente, são A. paniscus, C. apella, C. paca, T. pecari, Pecari tajacu, Tapirus terrestris, Alouatta macconnelli, Mazama americana, C. alector e Psophia crepitans. Foi registrado o mesmo numero de animais caçados entre os métodos de caça ativo-seletivos e oportunistas-não-seletivos. Devido à caça de grandes mamíferos, as formas oportunistas registraram maior quantidade de biomassa abatida (1590 Kg), enquanto os métodos seletivos que focalizaram aves e primatas, totalizaram 968 Kg. Devido a questões culturais os Wayana e os Aparai procuram caçar os animais apenas quando estes estiverem gordos. Raramente caçam animais fora e suas épocas de abate. A atividade de pesca rendeu 1211,7Kg de 44 morfoespécies. A caça representou cerca de 2/3 de toda biomassa consumida. As refeições com base na carne de caça foram mais fartas e renderam mais proteína do que as refeições com peixe. O consumo per capita diário de caça foi de 104,37g e de peixe 22,44g. A área de uso de caça das duas aldeias foi estimada em 518,73 Km². A análise de sustentabilidade de caça sugere que apenas C. apella e A. paniscus estão sendo sobre-explorados.

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A motivação deste artigo se baseia na controvérsia existente na literatura recente sobre crescimento econômico, desenvolvimento sustentável e proteção ambiental, gerada a partir da evidência empírica mostrada inicialmente por Grossman e Krueger (1995, 1996), onde a relação entre PIB per capita e emissão de poluentes toma a forma de um U-invertido, denominada na literatura como Curva Ambiental de Kuznets (CAK). Este artigo se distingue por contribuir com a explicação de fatores ligados ao desenvolvimento econômico. Como essa relação tem sido recentemente contestada, muitas interpretações estruturais da CAK têm permanecido fortemente sob o amparo ad hoc. A questão sobre tal fato estilizado é se o crescimento econômico gera por si só uma proteção automática ao meio ambiente, vis a vis ao desenvolvimento sustentável. A partir de dados em painel para países, verifica-se que as variáveis que denotam desenvolvimento sustentável apresentam uma relação fraca com o PIB per capita, quanto a sua representação para uma CAK. Há evidências para curvas ambientais com formato cúbico, indicando que o fenômeno pode ser cíclico, rejeitando-se assim as CAK originais, além de todos os indicadores de desenvolvimento selecionados apontarem para divergências entre países, exceção apenas para o indicador relacionado à educação.

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This paper presents an environmental emergy-based diagnosis of Brazil compared with Russia, India, China, South Africa and United States. Reflections on the Brazilian sustainable development are presented and discussed based on the evaluations published since 1979. The variation of the emergy per capita for Brazil from 1979 to 2007 indicates that the country's growth is tied to the exploitation of non renewable natural resources which do not directly reflect in the welfare of the population. The total emergy exported per unit of gross domestic product increased in the period, suggesting that the country exports more emergy than that contained in the money received for the exportation. With the help of the emergy indices, the future development of Brazil is explored and discussed. The comparison among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries and United States indicates that what may be appropriate and usable within one country may not be within another and that to achieve the global sustainability two concomitant actions may occur: (i) the reduction of the total emergy use in developed economies, and (ii) the reduction of indigenous resources exportation in developing economies. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Some characteristics and behaviors, that are of young, as a tendency to rebel and take risks, deviating from the rules of society, makes it vulnerable to many detrimental aspects, such as may indiscriminate use of alcohol and drugs, practicing unsafe sex and having multiple partners, which cause, among another complications, sexually transmitted diseases (STD). The Chlamydia trachomatis causes chlamydial infection, is one of the most recurrent STD of the world. Several risk factors are already defined for Chlamydial infection, among them, age under 25 years old and sexual behavior of the risk. The objective was to determine the prevalence of Chlamydia infection cervicitis in adolescent females of the Botucatu, São Paulo, and risk factors associated with this infection. It is cross-sectional study, of the populational basis, performed together the nineteen basic health units of the Botucatu, São Paulo. The data were obtained through clinical interviews and gynecological examination on samples collected for laboratory analysis. The research of C. trachomatis was performed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). This report presents preliminary data, which represent 19% of the sample checked. Were interviewed 37 adolescents with a mean age of 17 years (between 15th and 19th years old), average of years studied of the 8,19, 40% of the families lived on less than a minimum wage by person and 24,3% dosen’t has ownership of the house where they live. Mean age of first sexual intercourse of 14 years (between 12th and 16th years old), 24,3% regularly used condoms, 5,4% had a premature birth and 8,1% reported abortion. 75,7% had any complaints in the gynecological exam, pain in lower abdomen, the most prevalent. The prevalence of vulvovaginitis or vaginal flora altered was 54,1%. The prevalence of infection by C. trachomatis was 58%. Presence content was associated infection chlamydial and age... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)