FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Cartographie récente et écologie du nerprun bourdaine en Estrie

Le nerprun bourdaine (Rhamnus frangula L.) est une espèce exotique qui envahit plusieurs régions du sud du Québec, et plus particulièrement la région administrative de l'Estrie. Actuellement, on connaît encore peu l'écologie de l'espèce dans le contexte québécois et il n’existe pas de portrait d’ensemble de sa distribution dans les forêts tempérées de cette région. Dans ce contexte, le premier objectif du projet était de cartographier par télédétection la distribution du nerprun bourdaine dans deux secteurs de l'Estrie. Un second objectif était d'évaluer les variables environnementales déterminantes pour expliquer le recouvrement de nerprun bourdaine. La phénologie du nerprun bourdaine diffère de celle de la plupart des espèces indigènes arborescentes puisque ses feuilles tombent plus tard en automne. Cette caractéristique a permis de cartographier, par démixage spectral, la probabilité d'occurrence du nerprun bourdaine grâce à une série temporelle d'images du capteur OLI de Landsat 8. Le recouvrement du nerprun bourdaine a été calculé dans 119 placettes sur le terrain. La cartographie résultante a montré un accord de 69% avec les données terrain. Une image SPOT-7, dont la résolution spatiale est plus fine, a ensuite été utilisée, mais n’a pas permis d'améliorer la cartographie, puisque la date d’acquisition de l’image n’était pas optimale dû à un manque de disponibilité. Concernant le second objectif de la recherche, la variable la plus significative pour expliquer la présence de nerprun bourdaine était la densité du peuplement, ce qui suggère que l’ouverture de la couverture forestière pourrait favoriser l’envahissement. Néanmoins, les résultats tendent à démontrer que le nerprun bourdaine est une espèce «généraliste» qui s’adapte bien à plusieurs conditions environnementales.

Assessment of the spatial variability in Tall wheatgrass forage using LANDSAT 8 satellite imagery to delineate potential management zones

Little information is available on the degree of within-field variability of potential production of Tall wheatgrass (Thinopyrum ponticum) forage under unirrigated conditions. The aim of this study was to characterize the spatial variability of the accumulated biomass (AB) without nutritional limitations through vegetation indexes, and then use this information to determine potential management zones. A 27-×-27-m grid cell size was chosen and 84 biomass sampling areas (BSA), each 2 m(2) in size, were georeferenced. Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers were applied after an initial cut at 3 cm height. At 500 °C day, the AB from each sampling area, was collected and evaluated. The spatial variability of AB was estimated more accurately using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), calculated from LANDSAT 8 images obtained on 24 November 2014 (NDVInov) and 10 December 2014 (NDVIdec) because the potential AB was highly associated with NDVInov and NDVIdec (r (2) = 0.85 and 0.83, respectively). These models between the potential AB data and NDVI were evaluated by root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative root mean squared error (RRMSE). This last coefficient was 12 and 15 % for NDVInov and NDVIdec, respectively. Potential AB and NDVI spatial correlation were quantified with semivariograms. The spatial dependence of AB was low. Six classes of NDVI were analyzed for comparison, and two management zones (MZ) were established with them. In order to evaluate if the NDVI method allows us to delimit MZ with different attainable yields, the AB estimated for these MZ were compared through an ANOVA test. The potential AB had significant differences among MZ. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that NDVI obtained from LANDSAT 8 images can be reliably used for creating MZ in soils under permanent pastures dominated by Tall wheatgrass.

Assessment of the Availability of Forest Biomass for Bioenergy Production in Southwest Portugal.

In 2014, Portugal was the seventh largest pellets producer in the World. Since the shortage of raw material is one of the major obstacles that the Portuguese sellets market faces, the need for a good assessment of biomass availability for energy purposes at both country and regional levels is reinforced. This work uses a Geographical Information System environment and remote sensing data to assess the availability and sustainability of forest biomass residues in a management unit with around 940 ha of maritime pine forest. The period considered goes from 2004 to 2015. The study area is located in Southwestern Portugal, close to a pellets factory; therefore the potential Contribution of the residual biomass generated in the management unit to the production of pellets is evaluated. An allometric function is used for the estimation of maritime pine above ground biomass. With this estimate, and considering several forest operations, the residual biomass available was assessed, according to stand composition and structure. This study shows that, when maritime pine forests are managed to produce wood, the amount of residues available for energy production is small (an average of 0.37 t ha -1  year -1 were generated in the study area between 2004 and 2015). As a contribution to the sustainability of the Portuguese pellets industries, new management models for maritime pine forests may be developed. The effect of the pinewood nematode on the availability of residual biomass can be clearly seen in this study. In the management unit considered, cuts were made to prevent dissemination of the disease. This contributes to a higher availability of forest residues in a specific period of time, but, in the medium term, they lead to a decrease in the amount of residues that can be used for energy purposes.

Sugarcane Water Productivity Assessments in the São Paulo state, Brazil.

São Paulo state, Brazil, has been highlighted by the sugarcane crop expansion. The actual scenario of climate and land use changes, bring attention for the large-scale water productivity (WP) analyses. MODIS images were used together with gridded weather data for these analyses. A generalized sugarcane growing cycle inside a crop land mask, from September 2011 to October 2012, was considered in the main growing regions of the state. Actual evapotranspiration (ET) is quantified by the SAFER (Simple Algorithm for Evapotranspiration Retrieving) algorithm, the biomass production (BIO) by the RUE (Radiation Use Efficiency) Monteith?s model and WP is considered as the ratio of BIO to ET. During the four generalized sugarcane crop phases, the mean ET values ranged from 0.6 to 4.0 mm day-1; BIO rates were between 20 and 200 kg ha-1 day-1, resulting in WP ranging from 2.8 to 6.0 kg m-3. Soil moisture indicators are applied, indicating benefits from supplementary irrigation during the grand growth phase, wherever there is water availability for this practice. The quantification of the large-scale water variables may subsidize the rational water resources management under the sugarcane expansion and water scarcity scenarios.

Comparison of multitemporal MODIS-EVI smoothing algorithms and its contribution to crop monitoring.

Crop monitoring and more generally land use change detection are of primary importance in order to analyze spatio-temporal dynamics and its impacts on environment. This aspect is especially true in such a region as the State of Mato Grosso (south of the Brazilian Amazon Basin) which hosts an intensive pioneer front. Deforestation in this region as often been explained by soybean expansion in the last three decades. Remote sensing techniques may now represent an efficient and objective manner to quantify how crops expansion really represents a factor of deforestation through crop mapping studies. Due to the special characteristics of the soybean productions' farms in Mato Grosso (area varying between 1000 hectares and 40000 hectares and individual fields often bigger than 100 hectares), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data with a near daily temporal resolution and 250 m spatial resolution can be considered as adequate resources to crop mapping. Especially, multitemporal vegetation indices (VI) studies have been currently used to realize this task [1] [2]. In this study, 16-days compositions of EVI (MODQ13 product) data are used. However, although these data are already processed, multitemporal VI profiles still remain noisy due to cloudiness (which is extremely frequent in a tropical region such as south Amazon Basin), sensor problems, errors in atmospheric corrections or BRDF effect. Thus, many works tried to develop algorithms that could smooth the multitemporal VI profiles in order to improve further classification. The goal of this study is to compare and test different smoothing algorithms in order to select the one which satisfies better to the demand which is classifying crop classes. Those classes correspond to 6 different agricultural managements observed in Mato Grosso through an intensive field work which resulted in mapping more than 1000 individual fields. The agricultural managements above mentioned are based on combination of soy, cotton, corn, millet and sorghum crops sowed in single or double crop systems. Due to the difficulty in separating certain classes because of too similar agricultural calendars, the classification will be reduced to 3 classes : Cotton (single crop), Soy and cotton (double crop), soy (single or double crop with corn, millet or sorghum). The classification will use training data obtained in the 2005-2006 harvest and then be tested on the 2006-2007 harvest. In a first step, four smoothing techniques are presented and criticized. Those techniques are Best Index Slope Extraction (BISE) [3], Mean Value Iteration (MVI) [4], Weighted Least Squares (WLS) [5] and Savitzky-Golay Filter (SG) [6] [7]. These techniques are then implemented and visually compared on a few individual pixels so that it allows doing a first selection between the five studied techniques. The WLS and SG techniques are selected according to criteria proposed by [8]. Those criteria are: ability in eliminating frequent noises, conserving the upper values of the VI profiles and keeping the temporality of the profiles. Those selected algorithms are then programmed and applied to the MODIS/TERRA EVI data (16-days composition periods). Tests of separability are realized based on the Jeffries-Matusita distance in order to see if the algorithms managed in improving the potential of differentiation between the classes. Those tests are realized on the overall profile (comprising 23 MODIS images) as well as on each MODIS sub-period of the profile [1]. This last test is a double interest process because it allows comparing the smoothing techniques and also enables to select a set of images which carries more information on the separability between the classes. Those selected dates can then be used to realize a supervised classification. Here three different classifiers are tested to evaluate if the smoothing techniques as a particular effect on the classification depending on the classifiers used. Those classifiers are Maximum Likelihood classifier, Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) classifier and CHAID Improved Decision tree. It appears through the separability tests on the overall process that the smoothed profiles don't improve efficiently the potential of discrimination between classes when compared with the original data. However, the same tests realized on the MODIS sub-periods show better results obtained with the smoothed algorithms. The results of the classification confirm this first analyze. The Kappa coefficients are always better with the smoothing techniques and the results obtained with the WLS and SG smoothed profiles are nearly equal. However, the results are different depending on the classifier used. The impact of the smoothing algorithms is much better while using the decision tree model. Indeed, it allows a gain of 0.1 in the Kappa coefficient. While using the Maximum Likelihood end SAM models, the gain remains positive but is much lower (Kappa improved of 0.02 only). Thus, this work's aim is to prove the utility in smoothing the VI profiles in order to improve the final results. However, the choice of the smoothing algorithm has to be made considering the original data used and the classifier models used. In that case the Savitzky-Golay filter gave the better results.

Assessment of sugarcane harvesting residue effects on soil spectral behavior

When the harvesting of sugarcane involves a mechanized process, plant residues remain on the soil surface, which makes proximal and remote sensing difficult to monitor. This study aimed to evaluate, under laboratory conditions, differences in the soil spectral behavior of surface layers Quartzipsamment and Hapludox soil classes due to increasing levels of sugarcane?s dry (DL) and green (GL) leaf cover on the soil. Soil cover was quantified by supervised classification of the digital images (photography) taken of the treatments. The spectral reflectance of the samples was obtained using the FieldSpec Pro (350 to 2500 nm). TM-Landsat bands were simulated and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and soil line were also determined. Soil cover ranged from 0 to 89 % for DL and 0 to 80 % for GL. Dry leaf covering affected the features of the following soil constituents: iron oxides (480, 530 and 900 nm) and kaolinite (2200 nm). Water absorption (1400 and 1900 nm) and chlorophyll (670 nm) were determinant in differentiating between bare soil and GL covering. Bands 3 and 4 and NDVI showed pronounced variations as regards differences in soil cover percentage for both DL and GL. The soil line allowed for discrimination of the bare soil from the covered soil (DL and GL). High resolution sensors from about 50 % of the DL or GL covering are expected to reveal differences in soil spectral behavior. Above this coverage percentage, soil assessment by remote sensing is impaired.

INTEGRACIÓN ESPACIAL Y ESPECTRAL DE IMÁGENES FOTOGRÁFICAS: EL CASO DE OROSI, PARAÍSO, CARTAGO – COSTA RICA

Los sensores remotos proveen imágenes que según sus características permiten determinar cambios en el uso de la tierra. Se han desarrollado sensores con alto potencial para llevar a cabo este tipo de trabajo, aunque en ocasiones es difícil tener todos los elementos para discriminar los objetos en una misma imagen, por ello recurrimos a transformaciones para la consecución de los objetivos. Este artículo constituye un subproducto del proyecto “Análisis de los cambios del uso de la tierra en el distrito de Orosi, utilizando datos teledetectados de los proyectos CENIGA1 (TERRA 97) y CARTA2 2003: período 1997-2003”. En el caso de Carta 2003 y Spot se presenta una coincidencia temporal pero no espacial ni espectral. El objetivo es ofrecer técnicas de transformación de imágenes fotográficas y multiespectrales del proyecto Carta 2003, así como una imagen de la plataforma del Spot. Las transformaciones de las imágenes permitieron cambiar la resolución espacial y espectral, las cuales variaban de 2 a 30 metros espacialmente y de 1 a 50 en su espectro. Para los objetivos de la investigación se seleccionaron 9 bandas a las cuales fue posible aplicarles las transformaciones. Se obtuvo resultante de 2 metros de resolución espacial y 9 bandas espectrales. Utilizando las resultantes se realizó la clasificación supervisada, con lo cual se obtuvo un mayor nivel de detalle en la delimitación de los diferentes usos presentes en el área de estudio. ABSTRACT Remote sensors supply images that, according to their characteristics, allow for determining changes in land use. Sensors have been developed with a high potential to carry out this type of work, although on occasion it is difficult to have all of the elements to distinguish the objects in the same image, and for that we resort to transformations to attain the objectives. This article constitutes a byproduct of the project: “Analysis of Land Use Changes in the District of Orosi, Using Remote Sensing Data of the Projects CENIGA (TERRA 97) and CARTA 2003: Period 1997-2003”. CARTA 2003 and Spot present temporary coincidence but not spatial or spectral. The objective is to offer techniques of transforming photographic images and multispectrals of the CARTA 2003 project, such as an image of the Spot platform. Transformation of the images allowed for changing the spatial and spectral resolution, which varied from 2 to 30 meters spatially and from 1 to 50 in their spectrum. For the objectives of the investigation, nine bands were selected to which it was possible to apply the transformations, and with them managed to obtain results of 2 meters of spatial resolution and 9 spectral bands. Utilizing the results, the supervised classification was realized, obtaining a greater level of detail in defining the different uses present in the area of study.

Carbon sequestration associated to the land-use and land-cover changes in the forestry sector in Southern Brazil.

We studied the Paraíba do Sul river watershed , São Paulo state (PSWSP), Southeastern Brazil, in order to assess the land use and cover (LULC) and their implication s to the amount of carbon (C) stored in the forest cover between the years 1985 and 2015. Th e region covers a n area of 1,395,975 ha . We used images made by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor (OLI/Landsat - 8) to produce mappings , and image segmentation techniques to produce vectors with homogeneous characteristics. The training samples and the samples used for classification and validation were collected from the segmented image. To quantify the C stocked in aboveground live biomass (AGLB) , we used an indirect method and applied literature - based reference values. The recovery of 205,690 ha of a secondary Native Forest (NF) after 1985 sequestered 9.7 Tg (Teragram) of C . Considering the whole NF area (455,232 ha), the amount of C accumulated al ong the whole watershed was 3 5 .5 Tg , and the whole Eucalyptus crop (EU) area (113,600 ha) sequester ed 4. 4 Tg of C. Thus, the total amount of C sequestered in the whole watershed (NF + EU) was 3 9 . 9 Tg of C or 1 45 . 6 Tg of CO 2 , and the NF areas were responsible for the large st C stock at the watershed (8 9 %). Therefore , the increase of the NF cover contribut es positively to the reduction of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD + ) may become one of the most promising compensation mechanisms for the farmers who increased forest cover at their farms.

The big brother : monitoring urban growth and change for sustainable infrastructure provision

Monitoring urban growth and land-use change is an important issue for sustainable infrastructure planning. Rapid urban development, sprawl and increasing population pressure, particularly in developing nations, are resulting in deterioration of infrastructure facilities, loss of productive agricultural lands and open spaces, pollution, health hazards and micro-climatic changes. In addressing these issues effectively, it is crucial to collect up-to-date and accurate data and monitor the changing environment at regular intervals. This chapter discusses the role of geospatial technologies for mapping and monitoring the changing environment and urban structure, where such technologies are highly useful for sustainable infrastructure planning and provision.

A prototype system for the digital lodgement of spatial data

This dissertation develops the model of a prototype system for the digital lodgement of spatial data sets with statutory bodies responsible for the registration and approval of land related actions under the Torrens Title system. Spatial data pertain to the location of geographical entities together with their spatial dimensions and are classified as point, line, area or surface. This dissertation deals with a sub-set of spatial data, land boundary data that result from the activities performed by surveying and mapping organisations for the development of land parcels. The prototype system has been developed, utilising an event-driven paradigm for the user-interface, to exploit the potential of digital spatial data being generated from the utilisation of electronic techniques. The system provides for the creation of a digital model of the cadastral network and dependent data sets for an area of interest from hard copy records. This initial model is calibrated on registered control and updated by field survey to produce an amended model. The field-calibrated model then is electronically validated to ensure it complies with standards of format and content. The prototype system was designed specifically to create a database of land boundary data for subsequent retrieval by land professionals for surveying, mapping and related activities. Data extracted from this database are utilised for subsequent field survey operations without the need to create an initial digital model of an area of interest. Statistical reporting of differences resulting when subsequent initial and calibrated models are compared, replaces the traditional checking operations of spatial data performed by a land registry office. Digital lodgement of survey data is fundamental to the creation of the database of accurate land boundary data. This creation of the database is fundamental also to the efficient integration of accurate spatial data about land being generated by modem technology such as global positioning systems, and remote sensing and imaging, with land boundary information and other information held in Government databases. The prototype system developed provides for the delivery of accurate, digital land boundary data for the land registration process to ensure the continued maintenance of the integrity of the cadastre. Such data should meet also the more general and encompassing requirements of, and prove to be of tangible, longer term benefit to the developing, electronic land information industry.