Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Comparação entre coronariografia efectuada via artéria radial e via artéria femoral

Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção Cardiovascular. Área de especialização: Intervenção Cardiovascular.

SNC / NCRF 24 – Acontecimentos após a data do balanço e suas implicações fiscais e de auditoria

Orientador Prof. Dr. João Domingues Costa

Geostatistical Mapping of Outfall Plume Dispersion Data gathered with an autonomous underwater vehicle

The main purpose of this study was to examine the applicability of geostatistical modeling to obtain valuable information for assessing the environmental impact of sewage outfall discharges. The data set used was obtained in a monitoring campaign to S. Jacinto outfall, located off the Portuguese west coast near Aveiro region, using an AUV. The Matheron’s classical estimator was used the compute the experimental semivariogram which was fitted to three theoretical models: spherical, exponential and gaussian. The cross-validation procedure suggested the best semivariogram model and ordinary kriging was used to obtain the predictions of salinity at unknown locations. The generated map shows clearly the plume dispersion in the studied area, indicating that the effluent does not reach the near by beaches. Our study suggests that an optimal design for the AUV sampling trajectory from a geostatistical prediction point of view, can help to compute more precise predictions and hence to quantify more accurately dilution. Moreover, since accurate measurements of plume’s dilution are rare, these studies might be very helpful in the future for validation of dispersion models.

An architecture for an effective usage of data mining in business intelligence systems

Business Intelligence (BI) is one emergent area of the Decision Support Systems (DSS) discipline. Over the last years, the evolution in this area has been considerable. Similarly, in the last years, there has been a huge growth and consolidation of the Data Mining (DM) field. DM is being used with success in BI systems, but a truly DM integration with BI is lacking. Therefore, a lack of an effective usage of DM in BI can be found in some BI systems. An architecture that pretends to conduct to an effective usage of DM in BI is presented.

Os benefícios e as dificuldades na certificação da qualidade: Norma NP EN ISO 9001:2008

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Assessoria de Administração

PHYLOViZ: phylogenetic inference and data visualization for sequence based typing methods

Background: With the decrease of DNA sequencing costs, sequence-based typing methods are rapidly becoming the gold standard for epidemiological surveillance. These methods provide reproducible and comparable results needed for a global scale bacterial population analysis, while retaining their usefulness for local epidemiological surveys. Online databases that collect the generated allelic profiles and associated epidemiological data are available but this wealth of data remains underused and are frequently poorly annotated since no user-friendly tool exists to analyze and explore it. Results: PHYLOViZ is platform independent Java software that allows the integrated analysis of sequence-based typing methods, including SNP data generated from whole genome sequence approaches, and associated epidemiological data. goeBURST and its Minimum Spanning Tree expansion are used for visualizing the possible evolutionary relationships between isolates. The results can be displayed as an annotated graph overlaying the query results of any other epidemiological data available. Conclusions: PHYLOViZ is a user-friendly software that allows the combined analysis of multiple data sources for microbial epidemiological and population studies. It is freely available at http://www.phyloviz.net.

Probing the scalar-pseudoscalar mixing in the 125 GeV Higgs particle with current data

LHC has found hints for a Higgs particle of 125 GeV. We investigate the possibility that such a particle is a mixture of scalar and pseudoscalar states. For definiteness, we concentrate on a two-Higgs doublet model with explicit CP violation and soft Z(2) violation. Including all Higgs production mechanisms, we determine the current constraints obtained by comparing h -> yy with h -> VV*, and comment on the information which can be gained by measurements of h -> b (b) over bar. We find bounds vertical bar s(2)vertical bar less than or similar to 0.83 at one sigma, where vertical bar s(2)vertical bar = 0 (vertical bar s(2)vertical bar = 1) corresponds to a pure scalar (pure pseudoscalar) state.

Programas de self-management em pacientes com DPOC: uma revisão sistemática

Introdução: Programas de self-management têm como objectivo habilitar os pacientes com estratégias necessárias para levar a cabo procedimentos específicos para a patologia. A última revisão sistemática sobre selfmanagament em DPOC foi realizada em 2007, concluindo-se que ainda não era possível fornecer dados claros e suficientes acerca de recomendações sobre a estrutura e conteúdo de programas de self-managament na DPOC. A presente revisão tem o intuito de complementar a análise da revisão anterior, numa tentativa de inferir a influência do ensino do self-management na DPOC. Objectivos: verificar a influência dos programas de self-management na DPOC, em diversos indicadores relacionados com o estado de saúde do paciente e na sua utilização dos serviços de saúde. Estratégia de busca: pesquisa efectuada nas bases de dados PubMed e Cochrane Collaboration (01/01/2007 – 31/08/2010). Palavras-chave: selfmanagement education, self-management program, COPD e pulmonary rehabilitation. Critérios de Selecção: estudos randomizados sobre programas de selfmanagement na DPOC. Extracção e Análise dos Dados: 2 investigadores realizaram, independentemente, a avaliação e extracção de dados de cada artigo. Resultados: foram considerados 4 estudos randomizados em selfmanagement na DPOC nos quais se verificaram benefícios destes programas em diversas variáveis: qualidade de vida a curto e médio prazo, utilização dos diferentes recursos de saúde, adesões a medicação de rotina, controle das exacerbações e diminuição da sintomatologia. Parece não ocorrer alteração na função pulmonar e no uso de medicação de emergência, sendo inconclusivo o seu efeito na capacidade de realização de exercício. Conclusões: programas de self-management aparentam ter impacto positivo na qualidade de vida, recurso a serviços de saúde, adesão à medicação, planos de acção e níveis de conhecimento da DPOC. Discrepâncias nos critérios de selecção das amostras utilizadas, períodos de seguimento desiguais, consistência das variáveis mensuradas, condicionam a informação disponibilizada sobre este assunto.

Norma internacional de contabilidade [NIC 10 ]: acontecimento após a data de balanço

Revista Fiscal Maio 2006

A Lei de bases da economia social portuguesa: algumas reflexões críticas

O propósito deste estudo é o de analisar criticamente o Projeto de Lei n.º 68/XII, relativo à Lei de Bases da Economia Social portuguesa, quanto a um conjunto de questões essenciais dele constante, como sejam: a delimitação do conceito de economia social; a enumeração das entidades que integram o setor; a definição dos seus princípios orientadores; a questão da definição dos mecanismos de promoção e fomento do setor; e a consagração de um regime de concorrência que tenha em conta as especificidades do mesmo. Na decorrência desta análise, apresentam-se propostas de alteração de alguns dos preceitos deste Projeto de Lei de Bases. Este, situando-se num patamar abaixo do constitucional, não poderia ter ignorado o Princípio da proteção previsto na Constituição da República Portuguesa para o setor cooperativo e social, no qual fundamento a defesa da adoção de soluções diferenciadoras para o mesmo setor e que deverão constar expressamente do diploma em análise neste estudo.

Custo histórico versus justo valor

Oriêntador: Mestre Carlos Pedro

Data mining contributions to characterize MV consumers and to improve the suppliers-consumers settlements

This paper deals with the establishment of a characterization methodology of electric power profiles of medium voltage (MV) consumers. The characterization is supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD). Data Mining techniques are used with the purpose of obtaining typical load profiles of MV customers and specific knowledge of their customers’ consumption habits. In order to form the different customers’ classes and to find a set of representative consumption patterns, a hierarchical clustering algorithm and a clustering ensemble combination approach (WEACS) are used. Taking into account the typical consumption profile of the class to which the customers belong, new tariff options were defined and new energy coefficients prices were proposed. Finally, and with the results obtained, the consequences that these will have in the interaction between customer and electric power suppliers are analyzed.

Data mining techniques contributions to support electrical vehicle demand response

The introduction of Electric Vehicles (EVs) together with the implementation of smart grids will raise new challenges to power system operators. This paper proposes a demand response program for electric vehicle users which provides the network operator with another useful resource that consists in reducing vehicles charging necessities. This demand response program enables vehicle users to get some profit by agreeing to reduce their travel necessities and minimum battery level requirements on a given period. To support network operator actions, the amount of demand response usage can be estimated using data mining techniques applied to a database containing a large set of operation scenarios. The paper includes a case study based on simulated operation scenarios that consider different operation conditions, e.g. available renewable generation, and considering a diversity of distributed resources and electric vehicles with vehicle-to-grid capacity and demand response capacity in a 33 bus distribution network.

Mantle source heterogeneity, magma generation and magmatic evolution at Terceira Island (Azoresarchipelago): Constraints from elemental and isotopic (Sr, Nd, Hf, and Pb) data

This work addresses the present-day (<100 ka) mantle heterogeneity in the Azores region through the study of two active volcanic systems from Terceira Island. Our study shows that mantle heterogeneities are detectable even when "coeval" volcanic systems (Santa Barbara and Fissural) erupted less than 10 km away. These volcanic systems, respectively, reflect the influence of the Terceira and D. Joao de Castro Bank end-members defined by Beier et at (2008) for the Terceira Rift Santa Barbara magmas are interpreted to be the result of mixing between a HIMU-type component, carried to the upper mantle by the Azores plume, and the regional depleted MORB magmas/source. Fissural lavas are characterized by higher Ba/Nb and Nb/U ratios and less radiogenic Pb-206/Pb-204, Nd-143/Nd-144 and Hf-176/Hf-177, requiring the small contribution of delaminated sub-continental lithospheric mantle residing in the upper mantle. Published noble gas data on lavas from both volcanic systems also indicate the presence of a relatively undegassed component, which is interpreted as inherited from a lower mantle reservoir sampled by the ascending Azores plume. As inferred from trace and major elements, melting began in the garnet stability field, while magma extraction occurred within the spinel zone. The intra-volcanic system's chemical heterogeneity is mainly explained by variable proportions of the above-mentioned local end-members and by crystal fractionation processes. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.