959 resultados para Recursive Partitioning and Regression Trees (RPART)


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Ciência e Tecnologia Animal - FEIS

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We begin the 2001 Master Conservationist program with honorees in production agriculture from District A which includes the Panhandle of Nebraska. I would like to ask Leon and Cheryl Burkhart-Kriesel (Kresel) of Gurley who are unable to be present. They operated the family farm in partnership with Fred and Viola Kriesel until 1984 when Leon and Cheryl become sole owners/operators. The Kriesels produce certified wheat, millet, oats, and barley seed on 3200 dryland acres that are owned, rented, or contracted. Since 1984, 45,000 feet of terraces have been installed. Their holistic conservation plan also includes over 57,000 feet of windbreaks of mixed evergreen and broadleaf trees and shrubs. This mixture of plant species is unique in the Panhandle. They built an earthen dam with 11 acre-feet of permanent storage and 70.5 acre-feet of detention storage. Results include reduced soil erosion by wind and water, and increased productivity and wildlife populations. Local and international groups tour the farm. Congratulations to the Kriesels.

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Hundreds of Terabytes of CMS (Compact Muon Solenoid) data are being accumulated for storage day by day at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, which is one of the eight US CMS Tier-2 sites. Managing this data includes retaining useful CMS data sets and clearing storage space for newly arriving data by deleting less useful data sets. This is an important task that is currently being done manually and it requires a large amount of time. The overall objective of this study was to develop a methodology to help identify the data sets to be deleted when there is a requirement for storage space. CMS data is stored using HDFS (Hadoop Distributed File System). HDFS logs give information regarding file access operations. Hadoop MapReduce was used to feed information in these logs to Support Vector Machines (SVMs), a machine learning algorithm applicable to classification and regression which is used in this Thesis to develop a classifier. Time elapsed in data set classification by this method is dependent on the size of the input HDFS log file since the algorithmic complexities of Hadoop MapReduce algorithms here are O(n). The SVM methodology produces a list of data sets for deletion along with their respective sizes. This methodology was also compared with a heuristic called Retention Cost which was calculated using size of the data set and the time since its last access to help decide how useful a data set is. Accuracies of both were compared by calculating the percentage of data sets predicted for deletion which were accessed at a later instance of time. Our methodology using SVMs proved to be more accurate than using the Retention Cost heuristic. This methodology could be used to solve similar problems involving other large data sets.

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Chain topology, including branch node, chain link and cross-link dynamics that contribute to the number of elastically active strands and junctions, are calculated using purely deterministic derivations. Solutions are not coupled to population density distributions. An eigenzeit transformation assists in the conversion of expressions derived by chemical reaction principles from time to conversion space, yielding transport phenomena type expressions where the rate of change in the molar concentrations of branch nodes with respect to conversion is expressed as functions of the fraction of reactive sites on precursors and reactants. Analogies are hypothesized to exist in cross-linking space that effectively distribute branch nodes with i reacted moieties between cross-links having j bonds extending to the gel. To obtain solutions, reacted sites on nodes or links with finite chain extensions are examined in terms of stoichiometry associated with covalent bonding. Solutions replicate published results based on Miller and Macosko’s recursive procedure and results obtained from truncated weighted sums of population density distributions as suggested by Flory.

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Aboveground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height (H). We estimate the effect of incorporating H on tropics-wide forest biomass estimates in 327 plots across four continents using 42 656 H and diameter measurements and harvested trees from 20 sites to answer the following questions: 1. What is the best H-model form and geographic unit to include in biomass models to minimise site-level uncertainty in estimates of destructive biomass? 2. To what extent does including H estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across all 327 plots? 3. What effect does accounting for H have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? The mean relative error in biomass estimates of destructively harvested trees when including H (mean 0.06), was half that when excluding H (mean 0.13). Power- and Weibull-H models provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with regional Weibull-H models preferred because they reduce uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes (< 40 cm D) that store about one-third of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows that including H reduces errors from 41.8 Mg ha(-1) (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0 Mg ha(-1) (-2.5 to 23.0).

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Background: CAH patients have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, and it remains unknown if lifelong glucocorticoid (GC) treatment is a contributing factor. In the general population, glucocorticoid receptor gene (NR3C1) polymorphisms are associated with an adverse metabolic profile. Our aim was to analyze the association between the NR3C1 polymorphisms and the metabolic profile of CAH patients. Methodology: Sixty-eight adult patients (34SV/34SW) with a mean age of 28.4 +/- 9 years received dexamethasone (mean 0.27 +/- 0.11 mg/day) to obtain normal androgen levels. SW patients also received fludrocortisone (50 mu g/day). Metabolic syndrome (MetS) was defined by the NCEP ATPIII criteria and obesity by BMI >= 30 kg/m(2). NR3C1 alleles were genotyped, and association analyses with phenotype were carried out with Chi-square, t-test and regression analysis. Results: Obesity and MetS were observed in 23.5% and 7.3% of patients, respectively, and were not correlated with GC doses and treatment duration. BMI was positively correlated with blood pressure (BP), triglycerides (TG), LDL-c levels and HOMA-IR and inversely correlated with HDL-c levels. BclI and A3669G variants were found in 26.4% and 9.6% of alleles, respectively. Heterozygotes for the BclI polymorphism presented with higher BMI (29 kg/m(2) +/- 5.3 vs. 26 kg/m(2) +/- 5.3, respectively) and waist circumference (89 cm +/- 12.7 vs. 81 cm +/- 13, respectively) compared to wild-type subjects. Hypertension was found in 12% of patients and heterozygotes for the BclI polymorphism presented higher systolic BP than wild type subjects. Low HDL-c and high TG levels were identified in 30% and 10% of patients, respectively, and were not associated with the NR3C1 polymorphisms. A3669G carriers and non-carriers did not differ. Conclusion: In addition to GC therapy, the BclI GR variant might play an important role in obesity susceptibility in CAH patients. Genotyping of GR polymorphisms could result in the identification of a subgroup at risk patients, allowing for the establishment of personalized treatment and the avoidance of long-term adverse consequences.

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the genetic differences among three matrix groups of Cedrela fissilis based on quantitative juvenile variables on a progeny test to define seed collecting zones and use of seeds of this species in the study region as well as to evaluate genetic variability of the sampled material. A progeny test was established in a nursery with seeds from 48 seed trees collected in the municipalities of Rio Negrinho, Mafra and Sao Bento do Sul, state of Santa Catarina, and in the municipalities of Lapa, Rio Negro, Campo do Tenente and Antonio Olinto, state of Parana. Of the collected seed trees, 33 sampled trees were distributed in three sites and 15 trees were dispersed in the studied region. It was used a complete random block design, with 8 replicates and 20 plants per plot. Evaluated data included: emergency rate; seedling base diameter and height (61, 102 and 145 days after the seeds were sowed); seedling survival; number of leaves per seedling; aerial section dry mass and root dry mass; and the foliar area of the third fully expanded leaf measured from the apical meristem. The Maximum Restricted Likelihood Method (REML) was used, using the software SELEGEN for analysis. It was found that the juvenile characters are strongly genetically controlled and they can be used to estimate genetic variability of population samples of Cedrela fissilis. The three groups of trees spatially limited did not significantly differ among each other, allowing to conclude that the three areas are part of the same tree seed transfer zone.

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Aim The study aimed to determine the value of postchemoradiation biopsies, performed after significant tumour downsizing following neoadjuvant therapy, in predicting complete tumour regression in patients with distal rectal cancer. Method A retrospective comparative study was performed in patients with rectal cancer who achieved an incomplete clinical response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Patients with significant tumour downsizing (> 30% of the initial tumour size) were compared with controls (< 30% reduction of the initial tumour size). During flexible proctoscopy carried out postchemoradiation, biopsies were performed using 3-mm biopsy forceps. The biopsy results were compared with the histopathological findings of the resected specimen. UICC (Union for International Cancer Control) ypTNM classification, tumour differentiation and regression grade were evaluated. The main outcome measures were sensitivity and specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and accuracy of a simple forceps biopsy for predicting pathological response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Results Of the 172 patients, 112 were considered to have had an incomplete clinical response and were included in the study. Thirty-nine patients achieved significant tumour downsizing and underwent postchemoradiation biopsies. Overall, 53 biopsies were carried out. Of the 39 patients who achieved significant tumour downsizing, the biopsy result was positive in 25 and negative in 14. Only three of the patients with a negative biopsy result were found to have had a complete pathological response (giving a negative predictive value of 21%). Considering all biopsies performed, only three of 28 negative biopsies were true negatives, giving a negative predictive value of 11%. Conclusion In patients with distal rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation, post-treatment biopsies are of limited clinical value in ruling out persisting cancer. A negative biopsy result after a near-complete clinical response should not be considered sufficient for avoiding a radical resection.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of intra-urban atmospheric conditions on circulatory and respiratory diseases in elder adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on data from 33,212 hospital admissions in adults over 60 years in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2003 to 2007. The association between atmospheric variables from Congonhas airport and bioclimatic index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature, was analyzed according to the district's socioenvironmental profile. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression models were used. RESULTS: There was an increase in hospital admissions due to circulatory diseases as average and lowest temperatures decreased. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital increased by 12% with 1 degrees C decrease in the bioclimatic index and with 1 degrees C increase in the highest temperatures in the group with lower socioenvironmental conditions. The risk of admission due to respiratory diseases increased with inadequate air quality in districts with higher socioenvironmental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between morbidity and climate variables and the comfort index varied in different groups and diseases. Lower and higher temperatures increased the risk of hospital admission in the elderly. Districts with lower socioenvironmental conditions showed greater adverse health impacts.

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Questions What are the main features of the seed rain in a fragmented Atlantic forest landscape? Can seed rain species attributes (life form, dispersal mode, successional status) relate to the spatial arrangement (size and number of fragments, edge density and presence of corridor) of forest fragments in the landscape? How does the rain forest landscape structure affect the seed rain? Location Atlantic rainforest, Sao Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil. Methods Seed rain samples were collected monthly throughout 1yr, counted, identified and classified according to species dispersal mode, successional status and life form. Seed rain composition was compared with woody species near the seed traps. Relationships between seed rain composition and landscape spatial arrangement (fragment area, presence of corridor, number of fragments in the surroundings, proximity of fragments, and edge density) were tested using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). Results We collected 20142 seeds belonging to 115 taxa, most of them early successional and anemochorous trees. In general, the seed rain had a species composition distinct from that of the nearby forest tree community. Small isolated fragments contained more seeds, mainly of anemochorous, epiphytic and early-successional species; large fragments showed higher association with zoochorous and late-successional species compared to small fragments. The CCA significantly distinguished the species dispersal mode according to fragment size and isolation, anemochorous species being associated to small and isolated fragments, and zoochorous species to larger areas and fragment aggregation. Nevertheless, a gradient driven by proximity (PROX) and edge density (ED) segregated lianas (in the positive extremity), early successional and epiphyte species (in the negative end); large fragments were positively associated to PROX and ED. Conclusions The results highlight the importance of the size and spatial arrangement of forest patches to promote habitat connectivity and improve the flux of animal-dispersed seeds. Landscape structure controls seed fluxes and affects plant dispersal capacity, potentially influencing the composition and structure of forest fragments. The seed rain composition may be used to assess the effects of landscape spatial structure on plant assemblages, and provide relevant information for biodiversity conservation.

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Questions Does the spatial association between isolated adult trees and understorey plants change along a gradient of sand dunes? Does this association depend on the life form of the understorey plant? Location Coastal sand dunes, southeast Brazil. Methods We recorded the occurrence of understorey plant species in 100 paired 0.25 m2 plots under adult trees and in adjacent treeless sites along an environmental gradient from beach to inland. Occurrence probabilities were modelled as a function of the fixed variables of the presence of a neighbour, distance from the seashore and life form, and a random variable, the block (i.e. the pair of plots). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were fitted in a backward step-wise procedure using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection. Results The occurrence of understorey plants was affected by the presence of an adult tree neighbour, but the effect varied with the life form of the understorey species. Positive spatial association was found between isolated adult neighbour and young trees, whereas a negative association was found for shrubs. Moreover, a neutral association was found for lianas, whereas for herbs the effect of the presence of an adult neighbour ranged from neutral to negative, depended on the subgroup considered. The strength of the negative association with forbs increased with distance from the seashore. However, for the other life forms, the associational pattern with adult trees did not change along the gradient. Conclusions For most of the understorey life forms there is no evidence that the spatial association between isolated adult trees and understorey plants changes with the distance from the seashore, as predicted by the stress gradient hypothesis, a common hypothesis in the literature about facilitation in plant communities. Furthermore, the positive spatial association between isolated adult trees and young trees identified along the entire gradient studied indicates a positive feedback that explains the transition from open vegetation to forest in subtropical coastal dune environments.

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Objective Various nonvalidated criteria for disease flare have been used in studies of gout. Our objective was to develop empirical definitions for a gout flare from patient-reported features. Methods Possible elements for flare criteria were previously reported. Data were collected from 210 gout patients at 8 international sites to evaluate potential gout flare criteria against the gold standard of an expert rheumatologist definition. Flare definitions based on the presence of the number of criteria independently associated with the flare and classification and regression tree approaches were developed. Results The mean +/- SD age of the study participants was 56.2 +/- 15 years, 207 of them (98%) were men, and 54 of them (26%) had flares of gout. The presence of any patient-reported warm joint, any patient-reported swollen joint, patient-reported pain at rest score of >3 (010 scale), and patient-reported flare were independently associated with the study gold standard. The greatest discriminating power was noted for the presence of 3 or more of the above 4 criteria (sensitivity 91% and specificity 82%). Requiring all 4 criteria provided the highest specificity (96%) and positive predictive value (85%). A classification tree identified pain at rest with a score of >3, followed by patient self-reported flare, as the rule associated with the gold standard (sensitivity 83% and specificity 90%). Conclusion We propose definitions for a disease flare based on self-reported items in patients previously diagnosed as having gout. Patient-reported flare, joint pain at rest, warm joints, and swollen joints were most strongly associated with presence of a gout flare. These provisional definitions will next be validated in clinical trials.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of intra-urban atmospheric conditions on circulatory and respiratory diseases in elder adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on data from 33,212 hospital admissions in adults over 60 years in the city of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2003 to 2007. The association between atmospheric variables from Congonhas airport and bioclimatic index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature, was analyzed according to the district's socioenvironmental profile. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression models were used. RESULTS: There was an increase in hospital admissions due to circulatory diseases as average and lowest temperatures decreased. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital increased by 12% with 1ºC decrease in the bioclimatic index and with 1ºC increase in the highest temperatures in the group with lower socioenvironmental conditions. The risk of admission due to respiratory diseases increased with inadequate air quality in districts with higher socioenvironmental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between morbidity and climate variables and the comfort index varied in different groups and diseases. Lower and higher temperatures increased the risk of hospital admission in the elderly. Districts with lower socioenvironmental conditions showed greater adverse health impacts.

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The objectives of this thesis are to establish a chronological framework for environmental changes during the last 15,000 years in northwest Romania, to reconstruct the vegetation development, and to evaluate the underlying processes for forest dynamics. Furthermore, an overview of earlier and ongoing pollenstratigraphic work in Romania is provided. Sediments from two former crater lakes, Preluca Tiganului and Steregoiu, situated in the Gutaiului Mountains, on the western extremity of the Eastern Carpathians at 730 m and 790 m a.s.l., respectively were obtained and analysed for high-resolution pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, mineral magnetic parameters and organic matter. The chronostratigraphic framework was provided by dense AMS 14C measurements. Cold and dry climatic conditions are indicated by the occurrence of open vegetation with shrubs and herbs, and cold lake water prior to 14,700 cal. yr BP. The climatic improvement at the beginning of the Lateglacial interstadial (around 14,700 cal. yr BP) is seen by the development of open forests. These were dominated by Pinus and Betula, but contained also new arriving tree taxa, such as Populus, Alnus and Prunus. The gradual establishment of forests may have led to a stabilization of the soils in the catchment. Between ca. 14,100 and 13,800 cal. yr BP the forest density became reduced to stands of Pinus, Betula, Alnus, Larix and Populus trees and grassland expanded, suggesting colder climatic conditions. Picea arrived as a new taxon at around 13,800 cal. yr BP, and between 13,800 and 12,900 cal. yr BP, the surroundings of the sites were predominantly covered by Picea forest. This forest included Betula, Pinus, Alnus, Larix and Populus and, from 13,200 cal. yr BP onwards also Ulmus. At ca. 12,900 cal. yr BP, the forest became significantly reduced and at 12,600 cal. yr BP, a recurrence of open vegetation with stands of Larix, Pinus, Betula, Salix and Alnus is documented, lasting until 11,500 cal. yr BP. This distinct change in vegetation may by taken as a strong decline in temperature and moisture availability. At the transition to the Holocene, at ca. 11,500 cal. yr BP, Pinus, Betula and Larix quickly expanded (from small local stands) and formed open forests, probably as a response to warmer and more humid climatic conditions. At 11,250 cal. yr BP Ulmus and Picea expanded and the landscape became completely forested. The rapid increase of Ulmus and Picea after 11,500 cal. yr BP may suggest the existence of small residual populations close to the study sites during the preceding cold interval. Ulmus was the first and most prominent deciduous taxa in the early Holocene in the Gutaiului Mountains. From ca. 10,750 cal. yr BP onwards Quercus, Tilia, Fraxinus and Acer expanded and Corylus arrived. A highly diverse, predominantly deciduous forest with Ulmus, Quercus, Tilia, Fraxinus, Acer, Corylus and Picea developed between 10,700 and 8200 cal. yr BP, which possibly signifies more continental climatic conditions. The development of a Picea-Corylus dominated forest between 8200 and 5700 cal. yr BP is likely connected to a more humid and cooler climate. The establishment of Carpinus and Fagus was dated to 5750 cal. yr BP and 5200 cal. yr BP, respectively. The dominance of Fagus during the late Holocene, from 4000 cal. yr BP onwards, may have been related to cooler and more humid climatic conditions. First signs of human activities are recorded around 2300 cal. yr BP, but only during the last 300 years did local human impact become significant. The vegetation development recorded in the Gutaiului Mountains during the Lateglacial is very similar to reconstructions based on lowland sites, whereas higher elevation sites seem not to have always experienced visible vegetation changes. The time of tree arrival and expansion during the past 11,500 cal. yr BP seems to have occurred almost synchronously across Romania. The composition of the forests during the Holocene in the Gutaiului Mountains is consistent with that reconstructed at mid-elevation sites, but differs from the forest composition at higher elevations. Important differences between the Gutaiului Mountains and other studied sites in Romania are a low representation of Carpinus and a late and weak human impact. The available data sets for Romania give evidence for the presence of coniferous and cold-tolerant deciduous trees before 14,700 cal. yr BP. Glacial refugia for Ulmus may have occurred in different parts of Romania, whereas the existence of Quercus, Tilia, Corylus and Fraxinus has not been corroborated.