A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Data Assimilation and Inverse Methods in Terms of a Probabilistic Formulation

The weak-constraint inverse for nonlinear dynamical models is discussed and derived in terms of a probabilistic formulation. The well-known result that for Gaussian error statistics the minimum of the weak-constraint inverse is equal to the maximum-likelihood estimate is rederived. Then several methods based on ensemble statistics that can be used to find the smoother (as opposed to the filter) solution are introduced and compared to traditional methods. A strong point of the new methods is that they avoid the integration of adjoint equations, which is a complex task for real oceanographic or atmospheric applications. they also avoid iterative searches in a Hilbert space, and error estimates can be obtained without much additional computational effort. the feasibility of the new methods is illustrated in a two-layer quasigeostrophic model.

Atmospheric electrification in dusty, reactive gases in the solar system and beyond

Detailed observations of the solar system planets reveal a wide variety of local atmospheric conditions. Astronomical observations have revealed a variety of extrasolar planets none of which resembles any of the solar system planets in full. Instead, the most massive amongst the extrasolar planets, the gas giants, appear very similar to the class of (young) Brown Dwarfs which are amongst the oldest objects in the universe. Despite of this diversity, solar system planets, extrasolar planets and Brown Dwarfs have broadly similar global temperatures between 300K and 2500K. In consequence, clouds of different chemical species form in their atmospheres. While the details of these clouds differ, the fundamental physical processes are the same. Further to this, all these objects were observed to produce radio and X-ray emission. While both kinds of radiation are well studied on Earth and to a lesser extent on the solar system planets, the occurrence of emission that potentially originate from accelerated electrons on Brown Dwarfs, extrasolar planets and protoplanetary disks is not well understood yet. This paper offers an interdisciplinary view on electrification processes and their feedback on their hosting environment in meteorology, volcanology, planetology and research on extrasolar planets and planet formation.

Interaction of plant growth regulators and reactive oxygen species to regulate petal senescence in wallflowers (Erysimum linifolium)

Background In many species floral senescence is coordinated by ethylene. Endogenous levels rise, and exogenous application accelerates senescence. Furthermore, floral senescence is often associated with increased reactive oxygen species, and is delayed by exogenously applied cytokinin. However, how these processes are linked remains largely unresolved. Erysimum linifolium (wallflower) provides an excellent model for understanding these interactions due to its easily staged flowers and close taxonomic relationship to Arabidopsis. This has facilitated microarray analysis of gene expression during petal senescence and provided gene markers for following the effects of treatments on different regulatory pathways. Results In detached Erysimum linifolium (wallflower) flowers ethylene production peaks in open flowers. Furthermore senescence is delayed by treatments with the ethylene signalling inhibitor silver thiosulphate, and accelerated with ethylene released by 2-chloroethylphosphonic acid. Both treatments with exogenous cytokinin, or 6-methyl purine (which is an inhibitor of cytokinin oxidase), delay petal senescence. However, treatment with cytokinin also increases ethylene biosynthesis. Despite the similar effects on senescence, transcript abundance of gene markers is affected differentially by the treatments. A significant rise in transcript abundance of WLS73 (a putative aminocyclopropanecarboxylate oxidase) was abolished by cytokinin or 6-methyl purine treatments. In contrast, WFSAG12 transcript (a senescence marker) continued to accumulate significantly, albeit at a reduced rate. Silver thiosulphate suppressed the increase in transcript abundance both of WFSAG12 and WLS73. Activity of reactive oxygen species scavenging enzymes changed during senescence. Treatments that increased cytokinin levels, or inhibited ethylene action, reduced accumulation of hydrogen peroxide. Furthermore, although auxin levels rose with senescence, treatments that delayed early senescence did not affect transcript abundance of WPS46, an auxin-induced gene. Conclusions A model for the interaction between cytokinins, ethylene, reactive oxygen species and auxin in the regulation of floral senescence in wallflowers is proposed. The combined increase in ethylene and reduction in cytokinin triggers the initiation of senescence and these two plant growth regulators directly or indirectly result in increased reactive oxygen species levels. A fall in conjugated auxin and/or the total auxin pool eventually triggers abscission.

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Reactive nitrogen intermediate susceptibility of Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes in an urban setting

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes resistant to reactive nitrogen intermediates (RNI) predominate in certain urban communities, suggesting that this phenotype influences disease transmission. OBJECTIVE: To compare different M. tuberculosis genotypes for resistance to RNI generated in vitro. DESIGN: We genotyped 420 M. tuberculosis isolates from a neighborhood in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and analyzed them for susceptibility to RNI generated in acidified sodium nitrite (ASN) solution. RESULTS: Seventy-one (43%) of 167 recent-infection strains and 68 (43%) of 158 endogenous infection strains showed moderate- to high-level ASN resistance. CONCLUSION: ASN resistance of M. tuberculosis is not necessarily a determining factor for enhanced transmission.

Reactive oxygen and nitrogen species balance in the determination of thyroid hormones-induced cardiac hypertrophy mediated by renin-angiotensin system

Role of reactive oxygen species (ROS)/nitric oxide (NO) balance and renin-angiotensin system in mediating cardiac hypertrophy in hyperthyroidism was evaluated in an in vivo and in vitro experimental model. Male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: control, thyroid hormone, vitamin E (or Trolox, its hydrosoluble analogue), thyroid hormone + vitamin E. Angiotensin II receptor (AT1/AT2) gene expression, immunocontent of AT1/AT2 receptors, angiotensinogen, NADPH oxidase (Nox2), and nitric oxide synthase isoforms, as well as ROS concentration (hydrogen peroxide and superoxide anion) were quantified in myocardium. Thyroid hormone increased ROS and NO metabolites, iNOS, nNOS and eNOS isoforms and it was accompanied by cardiac hypertrophy. AT1/AT2 expression and the immunocontent of angiotensinogen and Nox2 were enhanced by thyroid hormone. Antioxidants reduced ROS levels, Nox2, AT1/AT2, NOS isoforms and cardiac hypertrophy. In conclusion, ROS/NO balance may play a role in the control of thyroid hormone-induced cardiac hypertrophy mediated by renin-angiotensin system. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential regulation of FGF-2 in neurons and reactive astrocytes of axotomized rat hypoglossal nucleus. A possible therapeutic target for neuroprotection in peripheral nerve pathology

Despite the favorable treatment of cranial nerve neuropathology in adulthood, some cases are resistant to therapy leading to permanent functional impairments In many cases, suitable treatment is problematic as the therapeutic target remains unknown Basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF, FGF 2) is involved in neuronal maintenance and wound repair following nervous system lesions It is one of few neurotrophic molecules acting in autocrine, paracrine and intracrine fashions depending upon specific circumstances Peripheral cranial somatic motor neurons, i e hypoglossal (XII) neurons, may offer a unique opportunity to study cellular FGF 2 mechanisms as the molecule is present in the cytoplasm of neurons and in the nuclei of astrocytes of the central nervous system FGF-2 may trigger differential actions during development, maintenance and lesion of XII neurons because axotomy of those cells leads to cell death during neonatal ages, but not in adult life Moreover, the modulatory effects of astroglial FGF 2 and the Ca+2 binding protein S100 beta have been postulated in paracrine mechanisms after neuronal lesions In our study, adult Wistar rats received a unilateral crush or transection (with amputation of stumps) of XII nerve, and were sacrificed after 72 h or 11 days Brains were processed for immunohistochemical localization of neurofilaments (NF), with or without counterstaining for Nissl substance, ghat fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP, as a marker of astrocytes), S100 beta and FGF-2 The number of Nissl positive neurons of axotomized XII nucleus did not differ from controls The NF immunoreactivity increased in the perikarya and decreased in the neuropil of axotomized XII neurons 11 days after nerve crush or transection An astrocytic reaction was seen in the ipsilateral XII nucleus of the crushed or transected animals 72 h and 11 days after the surgery The nerve lesions did not change the number of FGF-2 neurons in the ipsilateral XII nucleus, however, the nerve transection increased the number of FGF-2 ghat profiles by 72 h and 11 days Microdensitometric image analysis revealed a short lasting decrease in the intensity of FGF 2 immunoreactivity in axotomized XII neurons by 72 h after nerve crush or transection and also an elevation of FGF-2 in the ipsilateral of ghat nuclei by 72h and 11 days after the two lesions S100 beta decreased in astrocytes of 11-day transected XII nucleus The two-color immunoperoxidase for the simultaneous detection of the GFAP/FGF-2 indicated FGF-2 upregulation in the nuclei of reactive astrocytes of the lesioned XII nucleus Astroglial FGF-2 may exert paracrine trophic actions in mature axotomized XII neurons and might represent a therapeutic target for neuroprotection in peripheral nerve pathology (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH All rights reserved

REACTIVE OXYGEN SPECIES AND THE STRUCTURAL REMODELING OF THE VISUAL SYSTEM AFTER OCULAR ENUCLEATION

Redox processes associated with controlled generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) by NADPH oxidase (Nox) add an essential level of regulation to signaling pathways underlying physiological processes. We evaluated the ROS generation in the main visual relays of the mammalian brain, namely the superior colliculus (SC) and the dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (DLG), after ocular enucleation in adult rats. Dihydroethidium (DHE) oxidation revealed increased ROS generation in SC and DLG between 1 and 30 days postlesion. ROS generation was decreased by the Nox inhibitors diphenyleneiodonium chloride (DPI) and apocynin. Real-time PCR results revealed that Nox 2 was upregulated in both retinorecipient structures after deafferentation, whereas Nox 1 and Nox 4 were upregulated only in the SC. To evaluate the role of ROS in structural remodeling after the lesions, apocynin was given to enucleated rats and immunohistochemistry was conducted for markers of neuronal remodeling into SC and DLG. Immunohistochemical data showed that ocular enucleation produces an increase of neurofilament and microtubule-associated protein-2 immunostaining in both SC and DLG, which was markedly attenuated by apocynin treatment. Taken together, the findings of the present study suggest a novel role for Nox-induced ROS signaling in mediating neuronal remodeling in visual areas after ocular enucleation. (C) 2010 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reactive oxygen species generated by NADPH oxidase are involved in neurodegeneration in the pilocarpine model of temporal lobe epilepsy

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) appear to be involved in several neurodegenerative disorders. We tested the hypothesis that oxidative stress could have a role in the hippocampal neurodegeneration observed in temporal lobe epilepsy induced by pilocarpine. We first determined the spatio-temporal pattern of ROS generation, by means of detection with dihydroethidium oxidation, in the CA1 and CA3 areas and the dentate gyrus of the dorsal hippocampus during status epilepticus induced by pilocarpine. Fluoro-Jade B assays were also performed to detect degenerating neurons. ROS generation was increased in CA1, CA3 and the dentate gyrus after pilocarpine-induced seizures, which was accompanied by marked cell death. Treatment of rats with a NADPH oxidase inhibitor (apocynin) for 7 days prior to induction of status epilepticus was effective in decreasing both ROS production (by an average of 20%) and neurodegeneration (by an average of 61%). These results suggest an involvement of ROS generated by NADPH oxidase in neuronal death in the pilocarpine model of epilepsy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regulation of glycolysis and expression of glucose metabolism-related genes by reactive oxygen species in contracting skeletal muscle cells

Contractile activity induces a marked increase in glycolytic activity and gene expression of enzymes and transporters involved in glucose metabolism in skeletal muscle. Muscle contraction also increases the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). In this study, the effects of treatment with N-acetylcysteine (NAC), a potent antioxidant compound, on contraction-stimulated glycolysis were investigated in electrically stimulated primary rat skeletal muscle cells. The following parameters were measured: 2-[(3)H]deoxyglucose (2-DG) uptake; activities of hexokinase, phosphofructokinase (PFK), and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH); lactate production; and expression of the glucose transporter 4 (GLUT4), hexokinase II (HKII), and PFK genes after one bout of electrical stimulation in primary rat myotubes. NAC treatment decreased ROS signal by 49% in resting muscle cells and abolished the muscle contraction-induced increase in ROS levels. In resting cells, NAC decreased mRNA and protein contents of GLUT4, mRNA content and activity of PFK, and lactate production. NAC treatment suppressed the contraction-mediated increase in 2-DG uptake; lactate production; hexokinase, PFK, and G6PDH activities; and gene expression of GLUT4. HKII, and PFK. Similar to muscle contraction, exogenous H(2)O(2) (500 nM) administration increased 2-DG uptake; lactate production; hexokinase, PFK, and G6PDH activities; and gene expression of GLUT4. HKII, and PFK. These findings support the proposition that ROS endogenously produced play an important role in the changes in glycolytic activity and gene expression of GLUT4, HKII, and PFK induced by contraction in skeletal muscle cells. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Peptide gomesin triggers cell death through L-type channel calcium influx, MAPK/ERK, PKC and PI3K signaling and generation of reactive oxygen species

Gomesin is an antimicrobial peptide isolated from hemocytes of a common Brazilian tarantula spider named Acanthoscurriagomesiana. This peptide exerts antitumor activity in vitro and in vivo by an unknown mechanism. In this study, the cytotoxic mechanism of gomesin in human neuroblastoma SH-SY5Y and rat pheochromocytoma PC12 cells was investigated. Gomesin induced necrotic cell death and was cytotoxic to SH-SY5Y and PC12 cells. The peptide evoked a rapid and transient elevation of intracellular calcium levels in Fluo-4-AM loaded PC12 cells, which was inhibited by nimodipine, an L-type calcium channel blocker. Preincubation with nimodipine also inhibited cell death induced by gomesin in SH-SY5Y and PC12 cells. Gomesin-induced cell death was prevented by the pretreatment with MAPK/ERK, PKC or PI3K inhibitors, but not with PKA inhibitor. In addition, gomesin generated reactive oxygen species (ROS) in SH-SY5Y cells, which were blocked with nimodipine and MAPK/ERK, PKC or PI3K inhibitors. Taken together, these results suggest that gomesin could be a useful anticancer agent, which mechanism of cytotoxicity implicates calcium entry through L-type calcium channels, activation of MAPK/ERK, PKC and PI3K signaling as well as the generation of reactive oxygen species. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The novel ruthenium-gamma-linolenic complex [Ru(2)(aGLA)(4)Cl] inhibits C6 rat glioma cell proliferation and induces changes in mitochondrial membrane potential, increased reactive oxygen species generation and apoptosis in vitro

The present study reports the synthesis of a novel compound with the formula [Ru(2)(aGLA)(4)Cl] according to elemental analyses data, referred to as Ru(2)GLA. The electronic spectra of Ru(2)GLA is typical of a mixed valent diruthenium(II,III) carboxylate. Ru(2)GLA was synthesized with the aim of combining and possibly improving the anti-tumour properties of the two active components ruthenium and gamma-linolenic acid (GLA). The properties of Ru(2)GLA were tested in C6 rat glioma cells by analysing cell number, viability, lipid droplet formation, apoptosis, cell cycle distribution, mitochondrial membrane potential and reactive oxygen species. Ru(2)GLA inhibited cell proliferation in a time and concentration dependent manner. Nile Red staining suggested that Ru(2)GLA enters the cells and ICP-AES elemental analysis found all increase in ruthenium from <0.02 to 425 mg/Kg in treated cells. The sub-G1 apoptotic cell population was increased by Ru(2)GLA (22 +/- 5.2%) when analysed by FACS and this was confirmed by Hoechst staining of nuclei. Mitochondrial membrane potential was decreased in the presence of Ru(2)GLA (44 +/- 2.3%). In contrast, the cells which maintained a high mitochondrial membrane potential had an increase (18 +/- 1.5%) in reactive oxygen species generation. Both decreased mitochondrial membrane potential and increased reactive oxygen species generation may be involved in triggering apoptosis in Ru(2)GLA exposed cells. The EC(50) for Ru(2)GLA decreased with increasing time of exposure from 285 mu M at 24h, 211 mu M at 48 h to 81 mu M at 72 h. In conclusion, Ru(2)GLA is a novel drug with anti proliferative properties in C6 glioma cells and is a potential candidate for novel therapies in gliomas. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tissue-, substrate-, and site-specific characteristics of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species generation

Reactive oxygen species are a by-product of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation, derived from a small quantity of superoxide radicals generated during electron transport. We conducted a comprehensive and quantitative study of oxygen consumption, inner membrane potentials, and H(2)O(2) release in mitochondria isolated from rat brain, heart, kidney, liver, and skeletal muscle, using various respiratory substrates (alpha-ketoglutarate, glutamate, succinate, glycerol phosphate, and palmitoyl carnitine). The locations and properties of reactive oxygen species formation were determined using oxidative phosphorylation and the respiratory chain modulators oligomycin, rotenone, myxothiazol, and antimycin A and the Uncoupler CCCP. We found that in mitochondria isolated from most tissues incubated under physiologically relevant conditions, reactive oxygen release accounts for 0.1-0.2% of O(2) consumed. Our findings support an important participation of flavoenzymes and complex III and a substantial role for reverse electron transport to complex I as reactive oxygen species sources. Our results also indicate that succinate is an important substrate for isolated mitochondrial reactive oxygen production in brain, heart, kidney, and skeletal muscle, whereas fatty acids generate significant quantities of oxidants in kidney and liver. Finally, we found that increasing respiratory rates is an effective way to prevent mitochondrial oxidant release under many, but not all, conditions. Altogether, our data uncover and quantify many tissue-, substrate-, and site-specific characteristics of mitochondrial ROS release. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1,4-Diamino-2-butanone, a wide-spectrum microbicide, yields reactive species by metal-catalyzed oxidation

The alpha-aminoketone 1,4-diamino-2-butanone (DAB), a putrescine analogue, is highly toxic to various microorganisms, including Trypanosoma cruzi. However, little is known about the molecular mechanisms underlying DAB`s cytotoxic properties. We report here that DAB (pK(a) 7.5 and 9.5) undergoes aerobic oxidation in phosphate buffer, pH 7.4, at 37 degrees C, catalyzed by Fe(II) and Cu(II) ions yielding NH(4)(+) ion, H(2)O(2), and 4-amino-2-oxobutanal (oxoDAB). OxoDAB, like methylglyoxal and other alpha-oxoaldehydes, is expected to cause protein aggregation and nucleobase lesions. Propagation of DAB oxidation by superoxide radical was confirmed by the inhibitory effect of added SOD (50 U ml(-1)) and stimulatory effect of xanthine/xanthine oxidase, a source of superoxide radical. EPR spin trapping studies with 5,5-dimethyl-1-pyrroline-1-oxide (DMPO) revealed an adduct attributable to DMPO-HO(center dot), and those with alpha-(4-pyridyl-1-oxide)-N-tert-butylnitrone or 3,5-dibromo-4-nitrosobenzenesulfonic acid, a six-line adduct assignable to a DAB(center dot) resonant enoyl radical adduct. Added horse spleen ferritin (HoSF) and bovine apo-transferrin underwent oxidative changes in tryptophan residues in the presence of 1.0-10 mM DAB. Iron release from HoSF was observed as well. Assays performed with fluorescein-encapsulated liposomes of cardiolipin and phosphatidylcholine (20:80) incubated with DAB resulted in extensive lipid peroxidation and consequent vesicle permeabilization. DAB (0-10 mM) administration to cultured LLC-MK2 epithelial cells caused a decline in cell viability, which was inhibited by preaddition of either catalase (4.5 mu M) or aminoguanidine (25 mM). Our findings support the hypothesis that DAB toxicity to several pathogenic microorganisms previously described may involve not only reported inhibition of polyamine metabolism but also DAB pro-oxidant activity. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.