Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

The impact of moist processes on the African easterly jet-African easterly wave system

The African Easterly Jet-Easterly Wave (AEJ-AEW) system was explored in an idealised model. Prescribed zonally symmetric surface temperature and moisture profiles determine the AEJ which becomes established through meridional contrasts in dry and moist convection.As in previous studies, a realistic AEJ developed with only dry convection. Including moist processes, increased its development rate, but reduced its speed and meridional extent. AEWs grew through barotropic-baroclinic conversions. Negative meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients arose in the zonally symmetric state through the intrusion of the low-PV Saharan boundary layer. Since moist processes strengthened this significantly through diabatically generated PV in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, moist AEWs were three times stronger. Larger barotropic conversions and faster AEJ development increased the moist wave growth-rate. Jet-level and northerly low-level amplitudes grew, but in the moist case the low-level amplitudes weakened as the AEW interacted with convection, consistent with their absence from observations during the peak monsoon. Striking dependencies between the AEJ, AEW and rainfall existed. Two time-scales governed their evolution, depending on the transfer coefficients: (1) the AEJ's replenishment rate influenced by heat fluxes, and (2) the wave growth-rate, by damping, and the slower jet development rate.Moist AEWs were characterized by intermittent growth/decay, with growth preceded by increased mean rainfall and later, weakening AEJs. These dependencies established an internal 8-10-day variability, consistent with intra-seasonal observations of 9-day rainy sequences. This internal variability offers an alternative explanation to the previously proposed external forcing and a new view of the moist AEW life cycle. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Jordan between 2000 and 2030 made using the GEFSOC modelling system

Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes under different land use systems can help determine vulnerability to land degradation. Such information is important for countries in and areas with high susceptibility to desertification. SOC stocks, and predicted changes between 2000 and 2030, were determined at the national scale for Jordan using The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. For the purpose of this study, Jordan was divided into three natural regions (The Jordan Valley, the Uplands and the Badia) and three developmental regions (North, Middle and South). Based on this division, Jordan was divided into five zones (based on the dominant land use): the Jordan Valley, the North Uplands, the Middle Uplands, the South Uplands and the Badia. This information was merged using GIS, along with a map of rainfall isohyets, to produce a map with 498 polygons. Each of these was given a unique ID, a land management unit identifier and was characterized in terms of its dominant soil type. Historical land use data, current land use and future land use change scenarios were also assembled, forming major inputs of the modelling system. The GEFSOC Modelling System was then run to produce C stocks in Jordan for the years 1990, 2000 and 2030. The results were compared with conventional methods of estimating carbon stocks, such as the mapping based SOTER method. The results of these comparisons showed that the model runs are acceptable, taking into consideration the limited availability of long-term experimental soil data that can be used to validate them. The main findings of this research show that between 2000 and 2030, SOC may increase in heavily used areas under irrigation and will likely decrease in grazed rangelands that cover most of Jordan giving an overall decrease in total SOC over time if the land is indeed used under the estimated forms of land use. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of potassium leaching on a hillslope grassland soil

There have been only a few studies of potassium (K) losses from grassland systems, and little is known about their dynamics, especially in relation to nitrogen (N) management. A study was performed during the autumn and winter of 1999 and 2000 to understand the effects of N and drainage on the dynamics of K leaching on a hillslope grassland soil in southwestern England. Two N application rates were studied (0 and 280 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)), both with and without the drainage. Treatments receiving N also received farmyard manure (FM). Higher total K losses and K concentrations in the leachates were found in the N + FM treatments (150 and 185% higher than in 0 N treatments), which were related to K additions in the FM. Drainage reduced K losses by 35% because of an increase in dry matter production and a reduction in overland and preferential flow. The pattern of change in K concentration in the leachates was associated with preferential flow at the beginning of the drainage season and with matrix flow later in winter, and was best described by a double exponential curve. Rainfall intensity and the autumn application of FM were the main determinants of K losses by leaching. The study provided new insights into the relationships between soil hydrology, rainfall, and K leaching and its implications for grassland systems.

Multiple phases of North African humidity recorded in lacustrine sediments from the Fazzan Basin, Libyan Sahara

The Fazzan Basin of south-west Libya is at present arid with less than 20 mm of rainfall per annum. However, regionally extensive limestones, lacustrine sands and coquina (fossiliferous carbonate rock) deposits show that the Fazzan Basin previously contained a large palaeolake, indicating that the climate in the past was more humid. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating techniques have been applied to key lacustrine deposits within the basin in an attempt to provide an internally consistent chronology for this humidity record. Results indicate that palaeolake sediments within the Fazzan Basin record a very long history of palacohydrological change, ranging from present day and conditions to humidity capable of sustaining a lake with an approximate area of 76,250 km(2). The existence of humid periods in mid oxygen isotope stage 5 and the early Holocene is confirmed. An older lacustrine event, tentatively correlated to oxygen isotope stage 11, is also recognized. In addition, evidence is presented for at least two humid phases beyond the age range over which the conventional OSL dating technique is applicable. This study demonstrates that OSL dating of palaeolake sediments within the Fazzan Basin offers the potential to provide a detailed record of North African humidity spanning several glacial-interglacial cycles. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the century C model using long-term fertilizer trials in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

The GEFSOC Project developed a system for estimating soil carbon (C) stocks and changes at the national and sub-national scale. As part of the development of the system, the Century ecosystem model was evaluated for its ability to simulate soil organic C (SOC) changes in environmental conditions in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India (IGP). Two long-term fertilizer trials (LTFT), with all necessary parameters needed to run Century, were used for this purpose: a jute (Corchorus capsularis L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) trial at Barrackpore, West Bengal, and a rice-wheat trial at Ludhiana, Punjab. The trials represent two contrasting climates of the IGP, viz. semi-arid, dry with mean annual rainfall (MAR) of < 800 mm and humid with > 1600 turn. Both trials involved several different treatments with different organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs. In general, the model tended to overestimate treatment effects by approximately 15%. At the semi-arid site, modelled data simulated actual data reasonably well for all treatments, with the control and chemical N + farm yard manure showing the best agreement (RMSE = 7). At the humid site, Century performed less well. This could have been due to a range of factors including site history. During the study, Century was calibrated to simulate crop yields for the two sites considered using data from across the Indian IGP. However, further adjustments may improve model performance at these sites and others in the IGP. The availability of more longterm experimental data sets (especially those involving flooded lowland rice and triple cropping systems from the IGP) for testing and validation is critical to the application of the model's predictive capabilities for this area of the Indian sub-continent. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrochemical variations and contaminant load in the Rio Tinto (Spain) during flood events

The aim of this work is to study the hydrochemical variations during flood events in the Rio Tinto, SW Spain. Three separate rainfall/flood events were monitored in October 2004 following the dry season. In general, concentrations markedly increased following the first event (Fe from 99 to 1130 mg/L; Q(max) = 0.78 m(3)/s) while dissolved loads peaked in the second event (Fe = 7.5 kg/s, Cu = 0.83 kg/s, Zn = 0.82 kg/s; Q(max) = 77 m(3)/s) and discharge in the third event (Q(max) = 127 m(3)/s). This pattern reflects a progressive depletion of metals and sulphate stored in the dry summer as soluble evaporitic salt minerals and concentrated pore fluids, with dilution by freshwater becoming increasingly dominant as the month progressed. Variations in relative concentrations were attributed to oxyhydroxysulphate Fe precipitation, to relative changes in the sources of acid mine drainage (e.g. salt minerals, mine tunnels, spoil heaps etc.) and to differences in the rainfall distributions along the catchment. The contaminant load carried by the river during October 2004 was enormous, totalling some 770 t of Fe, 420 t of Al, 100 t of Cu, 100 t of Zn and 71 t of Mn. This represents the largest recorded example of this flush-out process in an acid mine drainage setting. Approximately 1000 times more water and 1408 200 times more dissolved elements were carried by the river during October 2004 than during the dry, low-flow conditions of September 2004, highlighting the key role of flood Events in the annual pollutant transport budget of semi-arid and and systems and the need to monitor these events in detail in order to accurately quantify pollutant transport. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating soil water fluxes from soil water records obtained using dielectric sensors

Accurate estimation of the soil water balance (SWB) is important for a number of applications (e.g. environmental, meteorological, agronomical and hydrological). The objective of this study was to develop and test techniques for the estimation of soil water fluxes and SWB components (particularly infiltration, evaporation and drainage below the root zone) from soil water records. The work presented here is based on profile soil moisture data measured using dielectric methods, at 30-min resolution, at an experimental site with different vegetation covers (barley, sunflower and bare soil). Estimates of infiltration were derived by assuming that observed gains in the soil profile water content during rainfall were due to infiltration. Inaccuracies related to diurnal fluctuations present in the dielectric-based soil water records are resolved by filtering the data with adequate threshold values. Inconsistencies caused by the redistribution of water after rain events were corrected by allowing for a redistribution period before computing water gains. Estimates of evaporation and drainage were derived from water losses above and below the deepest zero flux plane (ZFP), respectively. The evaporation estimates for the sunflower field were compared to evaporation data obtained with an eddy covariance (EC) system located elsewhere in the field. The EC estimate of total evaporation for the growing season was about 25% larger than that derived from the soil water records. This was consistent with differences in crop growth (based on direct measurements of biomass, and field mapping of vegetation using laser altimetry) between the EC footprint and the area of the field used for soil moisture monitoring. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of manure and fertilizer on grain yield, soil carbon and phosphorus in a 13-year field trial in semi-arid Kenya

Long-term indicators of soil fertility were assessed by measuring grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil Olsen phosphorous for a P-deficient soil. In one set of treatments, goat manure was applied annually for 13 years at 0, 5 and 10 t ha(-1), and intercrops of sorghum/cowpea, millet/green gram and maize/pigeonpea were grown. Yield depended on rainfall and trends with time were not identifiable. Manure caused an upward trend in SOC, but 10 t ha(-1) manure did not give significantly more SOC than 5 t ha(-1). Only 10 t ha(-1) manure increased Olsen P. Measurements of both SOC and Olsen P are recommended. In another set of treatments, manure was applied for four years; the residual effect lasted another seven to eight years when assessed by yield, SOC and Olsen P Treatment with mineral fertilizers provided the same rates of N and P as 5 t hat manure and yields from manure and fertilizer were similar. Fertilizer increased Olsen P but not SOC. Management systems with occasional manure application and intermediate fertilizer applications should be assessed. Inputs and offtakes of C, N and P were measured for three years. Approximately 16, 25 and 11% of C, N and P respectively were stabilized into soil organic matter from 5 t ha(-1) a(-1) manure. The majority of organic P was fixed as soil inorganic P.

Effect of manure application on crop yield and soil chemical properties in a long-term field trial of semi-arid Kenya

The sustainability of cereal/legume intercropping was assessed by monitoring trends in grain yield, soil organic C (SOC) and soil extractable P (Olsen method) measured over 13 years at a long-term field trial on a P-deficient soil in semi-arid Kenya. Goat manure was applied annually for 13 years at 0, 5 and 10 t ha(-1) and trends in grain yield were not identifiable because of season-to-season variations. SOC and Olsen P increased for the first seven years of manure application and then remained constant. The residual effect of manure applied for four years only lasted another seven to eight years when assessed by yield, SOC and Olsen P. Mineral fertilizers provided the same annual rates of N and P as in 5 t ha(-1) manure and initially ,gave the same yield as manure, declining after nine years to about 80%. Therefore, manure applications could be made intermittently and nutrient requirements topped-up with fertilizers. Grain yields for sorghum with continuous manure were described well by correlations with rainfall and manure input only, if data were excluded for seasons with over 500 mm rainfall. A comprehensive simulation model should correctly describe crop losses caused by excess water.

Phosphorus dynamics in the ditch system of a restored peat wetland

The restoration of wetlands as bird habitats often involves the maintenance of a fluctuating water regime by careful, localised ditch water management using pumps and sluices. However, there is evidence in the literature to Suggest that alternate flood/drainage cycles can accelerate nutrient cycling and transport within the soil and, therefore, pose a threat to water quality through the process of eutrophication. This study focused on the dynamics and losses of soil P in a recently re-wetted, eutrophic fen peat developed on alluvium ill South west England. During the 2-year Study (2001 and 2002), soil water tensiometry revealed that the field water table (fluctuating annually between +20 and 60 cm relative to ground level) was extensively influenced across most of the 8.4 ha field site by the management of the adjacent ditch water levels. This conservation-led, prescribed water balance was facilitated by the high hydraulic conductivity (1.1 x 10(-s) ms(-1)) of the lower (70-140 cm), degraded layer of peat. However, only during a 7-day period of water table drawdown by intermittent pump drainage, approximately 45 g ha(-1) of dissolved reactive P (DRP) entered the pumped ditch from the field via this degraded layer. Summer rainfall events >35 mm d(-1) also coincided with significant peaks ill ditch water P concentration (up to 200 mu g L-1 DRP). Even larger peaks (Up to 700 mu g L-1 DRP) Occurred With the annual onset of autumn reflooding. These episodic P loss events pose a serious potential threat to biological water quality. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wetland restoration within agricultural watersheds: Balancing water quality protection with habitat conservation

Peat wetlands that have been restored from agricultural Land have the potential to act as Long term sources of phosphorus (P) and, therefore have to potenital to accelerate freshwater eutrophication. During a two-year study the water table in a eutrophic fen peat that was managed by pump drainage fluctuated annually between +20 cm and -60 cm relative to ground Level. This precise management was facilitated by the high hydraulic conductivity (K) of the humified peat (1.1 x 10(-5) m s(-1)) below around 60 cm depth. However, during one week of intermittent pumping, as much as 50 g ha(-1) dissolved P entered the pumped ditch. Summer. rainfall events and autumn reflooding also triggered P losses. The P Losses were attributed to the low P sorption capacity (217 mg kg(-1)) of the saturated peat below 60 cm, combined with its high K and the reductive dissolution of Fe bound P.

A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia

Lacustrine sediments from southeastern Arabia reveal variations in lake level corresponding to changes in the strength and duration of Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) summer rainfall and winter cyclonic rainfall. The late glacial/Holocene transition of the region was characterised by the development of mega-linear dunes. These dunes became stabilised and vegetated during the early Holocene and interdunal lakes formed in response to the incursion of the IOM at approximately 8500 cal yr BP with the development of C3 dominated savanna grasslands. The IOM weakened ca. 6000 cal yr BP with the onset of regional aridity, aeolian sedimentation and dune reactivation and accretion. Despite this reduction in precipitation, the take was maintained by winter dominated rainfall. There was a shift to drier adapted C4 grasslands across the dune field. Lake sediment geochemical analyses record precipitation minima at 8200, 5000 and 4200 cal yr BP that coincide with Bond events in the North Atlantic. A number of these events correspond with changes in cultural periods, suggesting that climate was a key mechanism affecting human occupation and exploitation of this region. (c) 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved.