Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Natural host range, thrips and seed transmission of distinct Tobacco streak virus strains in Queensland, Australia

Diseases caused by Tobacco streak virus (TSV) have resulted in significant crop losses in sunflower and mung bean crops in Australia. Two genetically distinct strains from central Queensland, TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, have been previously described. They share only 81% total-genome nucleotide sequence identity and have distinct major alternative hosts, Parthenium hysterophorus (parthenium) and Verbesina encelioides (crownbeard). We developed and used strain-specific multiplex Polymerase chain reactions (PCRs) for the three RNA segments of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard to accurately characterise the strains naturally infecting 41 hosts species. Hosts included species from 11 plant families, including 12 species endemic to Australia. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was both a natural host of, and experimentally infected by TSV-parthenium but this infection combination resulted in non-viable seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. TSV-crownbeard was seed transmitted from naturally infected crownbeard at a rate of between 5% and 50% and was closely associated with the geographical distribution of crownbeard in central Queensland. TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard were also seed transmitted in experimentally infected ageratum (Ageratum houstonianum) at rates of up to 40% and 27%, respectively. The related subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus, was also seed transmitted at a rate of 18% in ageratum which is its major alternative host. Thrips species Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis were commonly found in flowers of TSV-affected crops and nearby weed hosts. Both species readily transmitted TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. The results are discussed in terms of how two genetically and biologically distinct TSV strains have similar life cycle strategies in the same environment.

Consumption of crops by feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in a fragmented agricultural landscape

Feral pigs (Sus scrofa) consume and damage crops and impact the environment through predation, competition and habitat disturbance, although supporting dietary data are lacking in agricultural landscapes. This study was undertaken to determine the relative importance of food items in the diet of feral pigs in a fragmented agricultural landscape, particularly to assist in predicting the breadth of likely impacts. Diet composition was assessed from the stomach contents of 196 feral pigs from agricultural properties in southern Queensland. Feral pigs were herbivorous, with plant matter comprising >99% of biomass consumed. Crops were consumed more frequently than non-crop species, and comprised >60% of dietary biomass, indicating a clear potential for direct economic losses. Consumption of pasture and forage species also suggests potential competition for pasture with domestic stock. There is little evidence of direct predation on native fauna, but feral pig feeding activities may impact environmental values. Seasonal differences in consumption of crop, pasture or animal food groups probably reflect the changing availability of food items. We recommend that future dietary studies examine food availability to determine any dietary preferences to assist in determining the foods most susceptible to damage. The outcomes of this study are important for developing techniques for monitoring the impacts of feral pigs, essential for developing management options to reduce feral pig damage on agricultural lands.

Improving the effectiveness of age-abundance indicators in the management of fisheries in Queensland, Australia

The development of fishery indicators is a crucial undertaking as it ultimately provides evidence to stakeholders about the status of fished species such as population size and survival rates. In Queensland, as in many other parts of the world, age-abundance indicators (e.g. fish catch rate and/or age composition data) are traditionally used as the evidence basis because they provide information on species life history traits as well as on changes in fishing pressures and population sizes. Often, however, the accuracy of the information from age-abundance indicators can be limited due to missing or biased data. Consequently, improved statistical methods are required to enhance the accuracy, precision and decision-support value of age-abundance indicators.

Native Phloem and Wood Borers in Australian Mediterranean Forest Trees

Native Mediterranean forests in Australia are dominated by two tree genera, Eucalyptus and Acacia, while Pinus and Eucalyptus dominate plantation forestry. In native forests, there is a high diversity of phloem and wood borers across several families in the Coleoptera and Lepidoptera. In the Coleoptera, cerambycid beetles (Cerambycidae), jewel beetles (Buprestidae), bark, ambrosia and pinhole beetles (Curculionidae) and pinworms (Lymexelidae) are some of the most commonly found beetles attacking eucalypts and acacias. In the Lepidoptera, wood moths (Cossidae), ghost moths (Hepialidae) and borers in the Xyloryctidae (subfamily Xyloryctinae) are most common. In contrast to native forests, there is a much more limited range of native insects present in Australian plantations, particularly in exotic Pinus spp. plantations, although eucalypt plantations do share some borers in common with native forests. This chapter reviews the importance of these borers in Australian forests primarily from an economic perspective (i.e. those species that cause damage to commercial tree species) and highlights a paucity of native forest species that commonly kill trees relative to the large scales regularly seen in North America and Europe.

The biology and natural history of Tripogon loliiformis (Poaceae, Chloridoideae), an Australian resurrection grass

Tripogon loliiformis is a desiccation-tolerant grass that occurs throughout mainland Australia. There has been recent interest in this species as a model system for understanding desiccation tolerance in a native grass at the structural, molecular and physiological levels. However, not much is known about the biology and natural history of this species, despite its widespread geographic distribution and remarkable capability of withstanding prolonged drying. We provide an overview of the genus by consolidating information from a wide variety of sources. We report a variety of new and interesting observations on the general biology, ecology and desiccation response of T. loliiformis and conclude by highlighting areas for future research.

Non-target species interaction with sodium fluoroacetate (1080) meat bait for controlling feral pigs (Sus scrofa)

Fresh meat baits containing sodium fluoroacetate (1080) are widely used for controlling feral pigs in Queensland, but there is a potential poisoning risk to non-target species. This study investigated the non-target species interactions with meat bait by comparing the time until first approach, investigation, sample and consumption, and whether dying bait green would reduce interactions. A trial assessing species interactions with undyed bait was completed at Culgoa Floodplain National Park, Queensland. Meat baits were monitored for 79 consecutive days with camera traps. Of 40 baits, 100% were approached, 35% investigated (moved) and 25% sampled, and 25% consumed. Monitors approached (P < 0.05) and investigated (P < 0.05) the bait more rapidly than pigs or birds, but the median time until first sampling was not significantly different (P > 0.05), and did not consume any entire bait. A trial was conducted at Whetstone State Forest, southern Queensland, with green-dyed and undyed baits monitored for eight consecutive days with cameras. Of 60 baits, 92% were approached and also investigated by one or more non-target species. Most (85%) were sampled and 57% were consumed, with monitors having slightly more interaction with undyed baits than with green-dyed baits. Mean time until first approach and sample differed significantly between species groups (P = 0.038 and 0.007 respectively) with birds approaching sooner (P < 0.05) and monitors sampling later (P < 0.05) than other (unknown) species (P > 0.05). Undyed bait was sampled earlier (mean 2.19 days) than green-dyed bait (2.7 days) (P = 0.003). Data from the two trials demonstrate that many non-target species regularly visit and sample baits. The use of green-dyed baits may help reduce non-target uptake, but testing is required to determine the effect on attractiveness to feral pigs. Further research is recommended to quantify the benefits of potential strategies to reduce the non-target uptake of meat baits to help improve the availability of bait to feral pigs.

Sirex woodwasp range expansion in Australia: performance and parasitism on two commercial pine species

Sirex woodwasp was detected in Queensland in 2009 and rapidly established in softwood plantations (Pinus radiata and P. taeda) in southern border regions. Biocontrol inoculations of Deladenus siricidicola began soon after, and adults were monitored to assess the success of the programme. Wasp size, sex ratios, emergence phenology and nematode parasitism rates were recorded, along with the assessment of wild-caught females. Patterns varied within and among seasons, but overall, P. taeda appeared to be a less suitable host than P. radiata, producing smaller adults, lower fat body content and fewer females. Sirex emerging from P. taeda also showed lower levels of nematode parasitism, possibly due to interactions with the more abundant blue-stain fungus in this host. Sirex adults generally emerged between November and March, with distinct peaks in January and March, separated by a marked drop in emergence in early February. Temperature provided the best correlate of seasonal emergence, with fortnights with higher mean minimum temperatures having higher numbers of Sirex emerging. This has implications for the anticipated northward spread of Sirex into sub-tropical coastal plantation regions. Following four seasons of inundative release of nematodes in Queensland, parasitism rates remain low and have resulted in only partial sterilization of infected females.

Green and brown bridges between weeds and crops reveal novel Diaporthe species in Australia

Diaporthe (syn. Phomopsis) species are well-known saprobes, endophytes or pathogens on a range of plants. Several species have wide host ranges and multiple species may sometimes colonise the same host species. This study describes eight novel Diaporthe species isolated from live and/or dead tissue from the broad acre crops lupin, maize, mungbean, soybean and sunflower, and associated weed species in Queensland and New South Wales, as well as the environmental weed bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata) in eastern Australia. The new taxa are differentiated on the basis of morphology and DNA sequence analyses based on the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer region, and part of the translation elongation factor-1α and ß-tubulin genes. The possible agricultural significance of live weeds and crop residues ('green bridges') as well as dead weeds and crop residues ('brown bridges') in aiding survival of the newly described Diaporthe species is discussed.

Physical Oceanographic Influences on Queensland Reef Fish and Scallops : Final Report FRDC 2013/020

The project examined coastal and physical oceanographic influences on the catch rates of coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) and saucer scallops (Amusium balloti) in Queensland. The research was undertaken to explain variation observed in the catches, and to improve quantitative assessment of the stocks and management advice. 3.1 OBJECTIVES 1. Review recent advances in the study of physical oceanographic influences on fisheries catch data, and describe the major physical oceanographic features that are likely to influence Queensland reef fish and saucer scallops. 2. Collate Queensland’s physical oceanographic data and fisheries (i.e. reef fish and saucer scallops) data. 3. Develop stochastic population models for reef fish and saucer scallops, which can link physical oceanographic features (e.g. sea surface temperature anomalies) to catch rates, biological parameters (e.g. growth, reproduction, natural mortality) and ecological aspects (e.g. spatial distribution).

Inventories and significance of the genetic resources of an African mahogany species (Khaya senegalensis (Desr.) A. Juss.) assembled and further developed in Australia.

The forest tree species Khaya senegalensis (Desr.) A. Juss. occurs in a belt across 20 African countries from Senegal-Guinea to Sudan-Uganda where it is a highly important resource. However, it is listed as Vulnerable (IUCN 2015-3). Since introduction in northern Australia around 1959, the species has been planted widely, yielding high-value products. The total area of plantations of the species in Australia exceeds 15,000 ha, mostly planted in the Northern Territory since 2006, and includes substantial areas across 60-70 woodlots and industrial plantations established in north-eastern Queensland since the early-1990s and during 2005-2007 respectively. Collaborative conservation and tree improvement by governments began in the Northern Territory and Queensland in 2001 based on provenance and other trials of the 1960s-1970s. This work has developed a broad base of germplasm in clonal seed orchards, hedge gardens and trials (clone and progeny). Several of the trials were established collaboratively on private land. Since the mid-2000s, commercial growers have introduced large numbers of provenance-bulk and individual-tree seedlots to establish industrial plantations and trials, several of the latter in collaboration with the Queensland Government. Provenance bulks (>140) and families (>400) from 17 African countries are established in Australia, considered the largest genetic base of the species in a single country outside Africa. Recently the annual rate of industrial planting of the species in Australia has declined, and R&D has been suspended by governments and reduced by the private sector. However, new commercial plantings in the Northern Territory and Queensland are proposed. In domesticating a species, the strategic importance of a broad genetic base is well known. The wide range of first- and advanced-generation germplasm of the species established in northern Australia and documented in this paper provides a sound basis for further domestication and industrial plantation and woodlot expansion, when investment conditions are favourable

Queensland Spanner Crab Fishery : Commercial quota setting for June 2015 – May 2016

The Australian fishery for spanner crabs is the largest in the world, with the larger Queensland (QLD) sector’s landings primarily exported live overseas and GVP valued ~A$5 million per year. Spanner crabs are unique in that they may live up to 15 years, significantly more than blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus) and mud crabs (Scylla serrata), the two other important crab species caught in Queensland. Spanner crabs are caught using a flat net called a dilly, on which the crabs becoming entangled via the swimming legs. Quota setting rules are used to assess and adjust total allowable harvest (quota) around an agreed target harvest of 1631 t and capped at a maximum of 2000 t. The quota varies based on catch rate indicators from the commercial fishery and a fishery-independent survey from the previous two years, compared to target reference points. Quota management applies only to ‘Managed Area A’ which includes waters between Rockhampton and the New South Wales (NSW) border. This report has been prepared to inform Fisheries Queensland (Department of Agriculture and Fisheries) and stakeholders of catch trends and the estimated quota of spanner crabs in Managed Area A for the forthcoming quota period (1 June 2015–31 May 2016). The quota calculations followed the methodology developed by the crab fishery Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) between November 2007 and March 2008. The total reported spanner crab harvest was 917 t for the 2014 calendar year, almost all of which was taken from Managed Area A. In 2014, a total of 59 vessels were active in the QLD fishery, the lowest number since the peak in 1994 of 262 vessels. Recent spanner crab harvests from NSW waters have been about 125 t per year. The spanner crab Managed Area A commercial standardised catch rate averaged 0.739 kg per net-lift in 2014, 24% below the target level of 1.043. Mean catch rates declined in the commercial fishery in 2014, although the magnitude of the decreases was highest in the area north of Fraser Island. The NSW–QLD survey catch rate in 2014 was 16.849 crabs per ground-line, 22% above the target level of 13.972. This represented a decrease in survey catch rates of 0.366 crabs per ground-line, compared to the 2013 survey. The Queensland spanner crab total allowable harvest (quota) was set at 1923 t in 2012 and 2013. In 2014, the quota was calculated at the base level of 1631 t. However, given that the 2012 fisheryindependent survey was not undertaken for financial reasons, stakeholders proposed that the total allowable commercial catch (TACC) be decreased to 1777 t; a level that was halfway between the 2012/13 quota of 1923 t and the recommended base quota of 1631 t. The results from the current analysis indicate that the quota for the 2015-2016 financial year be decreased from 1777 t to the base quota of 1631 t.

The mating system of the true fruit fly Bactrocera tryoniand its sister-species,Bactrocera neohumeralis

The frugivorous ‘true’ fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Queensland fruit fly), is presumed to have a non-resourced-based lek mating system. This is largely untested, and contrary data exists to suggest Bactrocera tryoni may have a resource-based mating system focused on fruiting host plants. We tested the mating system of Bactrocera tryoni, and its close sibling Bactrocera neohumeralis, in large field cages using laboratory reared flies. We used observational experiments that allowed us to determine if: (i) mating pairs were aggregated or non-aggregated; (ii) mating system was resource or non-resource based; (iii) flies utilised possible landmarks (tall trees over short) as mate-rendezvous sites; and (iv) males called females from male-dominated leks. We recorded nearly 250 Bactrocera tryoni mating pairs across all experiments, revealing that: (i) mating pairs were aggregated; (ii) mating nearly always occurred in tall trees over short; (iii) mating was non-resource based; and (iv) that males and females arrived at the mate-rendezvous site together with no evidence that males preceded females. Bactrocera neohumeralis copulations were much more infrequent (only 30 mating pairs in total), but for those pairs there was a similar preference for tall trees and no evidence of a resource-based mating system. Some aspects of Bactrocera tryoni mating behaviour align with theoretical expectations of a lekking system, but others do not. Until evidence for unequivocal female choice can be provided (as predicted under a true lek), the mating system of Bactrocera tryoni is best described as a non-resource based, aggregation system for which we also have evidence that land-marking may be involved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

The effect of post harvest handling on selected native food plants

A commercial issue currently facing native plant food producers and food processors, and identified by the industry itself, is that of delivering quality products consistently and at reasonable cost to end users based on a sound food technology and nutrition platform. A literature survey carried out in July 2001 by the DPI&F’s Centre for Food Technology, Brisbane in collaboration with the University of Queensland to collect the latest information at that time on the functional food market as it pertained to native food plants, indicated that little or no work had been published on this topic. This project addresses two key RIRDC sub program strategies: to identify and evaluate processes or products with prospects of commercial viability and to assist in the development of integrated production, harvesting, processing and marketing systems. This project proposal also reflects a key RIRDC R&D issue for 2002-2003; that of linking with prospective members of the value chain. The purpose of this project was to obtain chemical data on the post harvest stability of functional nutritional components (bio actives) in commercially available, hand harvested bush tomato and Kakadu plum. The project concentrated on evaluating bioactive stability as a measure of ingredient quality.