Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?

We present a novel approach to assessing the attentiveness of professional forecasters to news about the macroeconomy. We find evidence that professional forecasters, taken as a group, do not always update their estimates of the current state of the economy to reflect the latest releases of revised estimates of key data.

Nexus between contracting and construction professional service businesses: empirical evidence from international market

he construction market around the world has witnessed the growing eminence of construction professional services (CPSs), such as urban planning, architecture, engineering, and consultancy, while the traditional contracting sector remains strong. Nowadays, it is not uncommon to see a design firm taking over the work of a traditional main contractor, or vice versa, of overseeing the delivery of a project. Although the two sectors of contracting and CPS share the same purpose of materializing the built environment, they are as different as they are interrelated. Much has been mentioned about the nexus between the two but little has been done to articulate it using empirical evidence. This study examined the nexus between contracting and CPS businesses by offering and testing lead-lag effects between the two sectors in the international market. A longitudinal panel data composed of 23 top international contractors and CPS firms was adopted. Surprisingly, results of the panel data analyses show that CPS business does not have a significant positive causal effect on contracting as a downstream business, and vice versa. CPS and contracting subsidiaries, although within the same company, do not necessarily form a consortium to undertake the same project; rather, they often collaborate with other CPS or contracting counterparts to undertake projects. This paper provides valuable insights into the sophisticated nexus between contracting and CPS in the international construction market. It will support business executives’ rational decision making for selecting proper contracting or CPS allies, or a proper mergers and acquisitions strategy in the international market. The paper also provides a fresh perspective through which researchers can better investigate the diversification strategies adopted by international contracting and CPS firms.

The dilemma of scope and scale for construction professional service firms

Construction professional service (CPS) firms sell expertise and provide innovative solutions for projects founded on their knowledge, experience, and technical competences. Large CPS firms seeking to grow will often seek new opportunities in their domestic market and overseas by organic or inorganic growth through mergers, alliances, and acquisitions. Growth can also come from increasing market penetration through vertical, horizontal, and lateral diversification. Such growth, hopefully, leads to economies of scope and scale in the long term, but it can also lead to diseconomies, when the added cost of integration and the increased complexity of diversification no longer create tangible and intangible benefits. The aim of this research is to investigate the key influences impacting on the growth in scope and scale for large CPS firms. Qualitative data from the interviews were underpinned by secondary data from CPS firms’ annual reports and analysts’ findings. The findings showed five key influences on the scope and scale of a CPS firm: the importance of growth as a driver; the influence of the ownership of the firm on the decision for growth in scope and scale; the optimization of resources and capabilities; the need to serve changing clients’ needs; and the importance of localization. The research provides valuable insights into the growth strategies of international CPS firms. A major finding of the research is the influence of ownership on CPS firms’ growth strategies which has not been highlighted in previous research.

Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long-run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.

Training on the use of a bespoke continuing professional development framework improves the quality of CPD records

BACKGROUND: Using continuing professional development (CPD) as part of the revalidation of pharmacy professionals has been proposed in the UK but not implemented. We developed a CPD Outcomes Framework (‘the framework’) for scoring CPD records, where the score range was -100 to +150 based on demonstrable relevance and impact of the CPD on practice. OBJECTIVE: This exploratory study aimed to test the outcome of training people to use the framework, through distance-learning material (active intervention), by comparing CPD scores before and after training. SETTING: Pharmacy professionals were recruited in the UK in Reading, Banbury, Southampton, Kingston-upon-Thames and Guildford in 2009. METHOD: We conducted a randomised, double-blinded, parallel-group, before and after study. The control group simply received information on new CPD requirements through the post; the active intervention group also received the framework and associated training. Altogether 48 participants (25 control, 23 active) completed the study. All participants submitted CPD records to the research team before and after receiving the posted resources. The records (n=226) were scored blindly by the researchers using the framework. A subgroup of CPD records (n=96) submitted first (before-stage) and rewritten (after-stage) were analysed separately. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Scores for CPD records received before and after distributing group-dependent material through the post. RESULTS: Using a linear-regression model both analyses found an increase in CPD scores in favour of the active intervention group. For the complete set of records, the effect was a mean difference of 9.9 (95% CI = 0.4 to 19.3), p-value = 0.04. For the subgroup of rewritten records, the effect was a mean difference of 17.3 (95% CI = 5.6 to 28.9), p-value = 0.0048. CONCLUSION: The intervention improved participants’ CPD behaviour. Training pharmacy professionals to use the framework resulted in better CPD activities and CPD records, potentially helpful for revalidation of pharmacy professionals. IMPACT: • Using a bespoke Continuing Professional Development outcomes framework improves the value of pharmacy professionals’ CPD activities and CPD records, with the potential to improve patient care. • The CPD outcomes framework could be helpful to pharmacy professionals internationally who want to improve the quality of their CPD activities and CPD records. • Regulators and officials across Europe and beyond can assess the suitability of the CPD outcomes framework for use in pharmacy CPD and revalidation in their own setting.

Interviewing children and young people with learning disabilities: guidelines for researchers and multi-professional practice

We argue that it is important for researchers and service providers to not only recognize the rights of children and young people with learning disabilities to have a ‘voice’, but also to work actively towards eliciting views from all. A set of guidelines for critical self-evaluation by those engaged in systematically collecting the views of children and young people with learning disabilities is proposed. The guidelines are based on a series of questions concerning: research aims and ethics (encompassing access/gatekeepers; consent/assent; confidentiality/anonymity/secrecy, recognition, feedback and ownership; and social responsibility) sampling, design and communication

Aligning IS programs with industry: linking business analysis curricula design with the professional body

Aligning information systems (IS) solutions with business goals and needs are crucial for IS activities. IS professionals who are able to work closely with both the business and technical staff are key enablers of business and IT alignment. IS programs in higher education (HE) institutions have a long tradition of enabling graduates to develop the appropriate skills needed for their future careers. Yet, organizations are still having difficulty finding graduates who possess both the knowledge and skills that are best suited to their specific requirements. Prior studies suggest that IS curricula are often ill-matched with industry/business needs. This study reports on the business analysis curricula (re) design which was undertaken to align it with a key professional body for the IS industry. This study presents the approaches taken in the (re) design of the module, and provides a discussion of the wider implications for IS curricula design. The results show a positive outcome for the HE and professional body partnership.

Managing enthusiasm: between ‘extremist’ volunteers and ‘rational’ professional practices in architectural conservation

Geographical research has considered enthusiasm to be a shared passion and a motivator to action. Tensions between enthusiasm as productive, and enthusiasm as negative and prohibitive. Highlights the role of emotion in volunteering with amenity societies. Highlights the presence of enthusiasm in contexts where it is actively denied.

Order and disorder in fiction labyrinths: the librarians` representations in some contemporary cultural productions

This paper, first result of a larger research, proposes a query about some aspects of social representation of libraries and librarians, as they appear in literary and cinematographic productions. Little by little, this query, which arose from purposes of organizing catalogues, revealed elements that established different series, in which the narrative genre (literary or cinematographic) has no relevance to either libraries or librarians` representations. The presence of these elements seems to show some expectations and utopias in relation to the common knowledge, independently from narratives being located in the past, in the present or in the future, stimulating reflection on some medieval and baroque traditions about the library universe and its main characters, the librarians. The cinematographic material selected for research was The time machine, Farenheit 451, The day after tomorrow, Star Wars - episode II and the novels Martin Eden, The man without qualities, The time machine and La sombra del viento.

A gender approach to work ability and its relationship to professional and domestic work hours among nursing personnel

The association between working hours and work ability was examined in a cross-sectional study of male (N = 156) and female (N = 1092) nurses in three public hospitals. Working hours were considered in terms of their professional and domestic hours per week and their combined impact; total work load. Logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between total work load and inadequate work ability index (WAI) for females only. Females reported a higher proportion of inadequate WAI, fewer professional work hours but longer domestic work hours. There were no significant differences in total work load by gender. The combination of professional and domestic work hours in females seemed to best explain their lower work ability. The findings suggest that investigations into female well-being need to consider their total work load. Our male sample may have lacked sufficient power to detect a relationship between working hours and work ability. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Librarians as Advocates for Social Media Privacy

Librarians must continue their traditional roles as privacy rights activists and intellectual freedom upholders into the digital age, and across electronic information sources, including social media fora. Social media is quickly becoming a major source of information and center for information seeking, and librarians have an opportunity to promote and help shape social media policies that protect users’ privacy and assure that users can seek information without inhibition. One way librarians can be involved in the promotion of online privacy is by joining the social media user rights movement and advocating terms of use agreements that protect information seekers that follow the "Privacy by Design" model created by Ann Cavoukian, Ph.D.

Are empathy and compassion bad for the professional social worker?

Recent studies have shown that social workers and other professional helpers who work with traumatized individuals run a risk of developing compassion fatigue or secondary traumatic stress. Some researchers have hypothesized that helpers do this as a result of feeling too much empathy or too much compassion for their clients, thereby implying that empathy and compassion may be bad for the professional social worker. This paper investigates these hypotheses. Based on a review of current research about empathy and compassion it is argued that these states are not the causes of compassion fatigue. Hence, it is argued that empathy and compassion are not bad for the professional social worker in the sense that too much of one or the other will lead to compassion fatigue.