Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.

Capitals, trajectòries i estratègies: la teoria general dels camps de P. Bourdieu

El model de classes de P. Bourdieu articula la dimensió objectiva —l’estructura de classe— i la dimensió subjectiva —l’acció de classe—. Aquesta anàlisi de classe forma part d’un debat al voltant de la naturalesa de la realitat social, en el qual el punt més important és la connexió del camp de la producció i del camp de la reproducció de subjectes. Bourdieu, en enfasitzar la condició relacional de l’àmbit social, defineix l’acció social com a dependent de l’estructura relacional, en existir una connexió lògica necessària entre la localització dels agents en un conjunt de relacions socials i els seus interessos, objectius i estratègies d’acció. Per tant, per a aquest autor, hi ha una eficàcia estructuradora de l’acció dels agents socials per l’estructura de classe, i es constitueix, així, en una matriu d’acció, o millor dit, en una estructura probabilística de l’acció. És, doncs, fonamental, considerar el paper de l’acció en la construcció de les classes en si, ja que les classes teòriques, agrupacions fictícies que només existeixen sobre el paper, estan predisposades a convertir-se en classes en el sentit marxista del terme. I sols es passa de la classe sobre el paper a clase real a costa d’una labor política de movilització. Així, l’existència de classes, tant en la teoria com en la realitat, és una aposta de lluites en existir un espai social, un espai de diferències, en el qual les classes existeixen en estat virtual, no com quelcom donat, sinó com quelcom que es tracta de construir.

Cost-effectiveness of early detection of breast cancer in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Breast cancer (BC) causes more deaths than any other cancer among women in Catalonia. Early detection has contributed to the observed decline in BC mortality. However, there is debate on the optimal screening strategy. We performed an economic evaluation of 20 screening strategies taking into account the cost over time of screening and subsequent medical costs, including diagnostic confirmation, initial treatment, follow-up and advanced care. Methods: We used a probabilistic model to estimate the effect and costs over time of each scenario. The effect was measured as years of life (YL), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lives extended (LE). Costs of screening and treatment were obtained from the Early Detection Program and hospital databases of the IMAS-Hospital del Mar in Barcelona. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the relative costs and outcomes of different scenarios. Results: Strategies that start at ages 40 or 45 and end at 69 predominate when the effect is measured as YL or QALYs. Biennial strategies 50-69, 45-69 or annual 45-69, 40-69 and 40-74 were selected as cost-effective for both effect measures (YL or QALYs). The ICER increases considerably when moving from biennial to annual scenarios. Moving from no screening to biennial 50-69 years represented an ICER of 4,469€ per QALY. Conclusions: A reduced number of screening strategies have been selected for consideration by researchers, decision makers and policy planners. Mathematical models are useful to assess the impact and costs of BC screening in a specific geographical area.

The transcriptional network activated by Cln3 cyclin at the G1-to-S transition of the yeast cell cycle

Background: The G1-to-S transition of the cell cycle in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae involves an extensive transcriptional program driven by transcription factors SBF (Swi4-Swi6) and MBF (Mbp1-Swi6). Activation of these factors ultimately depends on the G1 cyclin Cln3. Results: To determine the transcriptional targets of Cln3 and their dependence on SBF or MBF, we first have used DNA microarrays to interrogate gene expression upon Cln3 overexpression in synchronized cultures of strains lacking components of SBF and/or MBF. Secondly, we have integrated this expression dataset together with other heterogeneous data sources into a single probabilistic model based on Bayesian statistics. Our analysis has produced more than 200 transcription factor-target assignments, validated by ChIP assays and by functional enrichment. Our predictions show higher internal coherence and predictive power than previous classifications. Our results support a model whereby SBF and MBF may be differentially activated by Cln3. Conclusions: Integration of heterogeneous genome-wide datasets is key to building accurate transcriptional networks. By such integration, we provide here a reliable transcriptional network at the G1-to-S transition in the budding yeast cell cycle. Our results suggest that to improve the reliability of predictions we need to feed our models with more informative experimental data.

Tilintarkastuksen odotuskuilu

Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää millaista tilintarkastuksen odotuskuilu on, mitkä syyt siihen johtavat ja miten odotuskuilua voidaan kaventaa. Aluksi käydään läpi tilintarkastusta, hyvää tilintarkastustapaa, mitä lakisääteiseen tilintarkastukseen sekä konsultointiin kuuluu ja mitä erikoisuuksia pk-yritysten tilintarkastamiseen kuuluu. Sen jälkeen käsitellään tilintarkastuksen odotuskuilua kirjallisuuden ja artikkelien perusteella. Tässä käydään tarkemmin läpi mitä tilintarkastuksen odotuskuilu on, mitkä syyt siihen johtavat sekä miten sitä voidaan kaventaa. Tämän jälkeen käydään tutkimuksen empiiristä osiota läpi, jossa auktorisoidut tilintarkastajat ovat vastanneet tilintarkastuksen odotuskuilua koskeviin kysymyksiin. Voidaan sanoa, että tilintarkastuksen odotuskuilu on kuilu yleisön odotuksista tilintarkastuksesta verrattuna siihen, mitä lakisääteinen tilintarkastus itse asiassa on. Odotuskuiluun on monia syitä, muun muassa tilintarkastuksen todennäköinen luonne ja yleisön ylisuuret odotukset. Odotuskuilua voidaan kaventaa kahdella tavalla: valistamalla yleisöä tai muuttamalla tilintarkastuksen luonnetta vastaamaan yleisön odotuksia.

Economic evaluation of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system for the treatment of dysfunctional uterine bleeding in Spain

To compare the cost and effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) versus combined oral contraception (COC) and progestogens (PROG) in first-line treatment of dysfunctional uterine bleeding (DUB) in Spain. STUDY DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis of LNG-IUS, COC and PROG was carried out using a Markov model based on clinical data from the literature and expert opinion. The population studied were women with a previous diagnosis of idiopathic heavy menstrual bleeding. The analysis was performed from the National Health System perspective, discounting both costs and future effects at 3%. In addition, a sensitivity analysis (univariate and probabilistic) was conducted. RESULTS: The results show that the greater efficacy of LNG-IUS translates into a gain of 1.92 and 3.89 symptom-free months (SFM) after six months of treatment versus COC and PROG, respectively (which represents an increase of 33% and 60% of symptom-free time). Regarding costs, LNG-IUS produces savings of 174.2-309.95 and 230.54-577.61 versus COC and PROG, respectively, after 6 months-5 years. Apart from cost savings and gains in SFM, quality-adjusted life months (QALM) are also favourable to LNG-IUS in all scenarios, with a range of gains between 1 and 2 QALM compared to COC and PROG. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that first-line use of the LNG-IUS is the dominant therapeutic option (less costly and more effective) in comparison with first-line use of COC or PROG for the treatment of DUB in Spain. LNG-IUS as first line is also the option that provides greatest health-related quality of life to patients.

Joustava hitsausautomaatio piensarjatuotannossa

Kustannuspaineet, tuotteiden laatuvaatimukset ja lisääntyvässä määrin myös ammattitaitoisen työvoiman pula lisäävät robotisoinnin käyttötarvetta hitsauksessa. Tämä työ on tehty edellä mainituista lähtökohdista ja käsittelee robottihitsausjärjestelmän suunnitteluprojektia, joustavaa hitsausautomaatiota ja robotiikan soveltamista. Näkökohtana on Savonia-ammattikorkeakoulun sekä Pohjois-Savon alueen yritysten tutkimus-, kehitys- ja koulutustoiminnan tarpeet. Joustavuus on hitsausjärjestelmän päätavoite, jolla pyritään vastaamaan asiakasohjautuvan yksittäis- ja piensarjatuotannon haasteisiin. Ratkaisua yksittäis- ja piensarjatuotteiden kokonaistaloudelliseen hitsaukseen on haettu hitsausrobotin rinnalle lisätyllä apurobotilla, jonka päätehtävä on kappaleenkäsittely, mutta sitä voidaan käyttää myös mm. robotisoituun leikkauksen ja särmäykseen. Tavallisuudesta poikkeavaa järjestelmäratkaisua on perusteltu sillä, että ohjaus- ja ohjelmointitekniikan sekä kehittyneen anturoinnin myötä on robottien käytettävyys parantunut ja aiempaa haasteellisempien robottijärjestelmien toteuttaminen on tullut näin mahdolliseksi. Lisäksi virtuaalimallinnus, simulointi ja etäohjelmointi ovat työkaluja, joita voidaan käyttää mm. tuotannon laadun ja tehokkuuden parantamiseen. Työssä esitetty robottiaseman suunnittelu alkaa järjestelmän määrittelystä, vaatimuslistan laadinnasta sekä visioinnista ja päättyy kolmen järjestelmävaihtoehdon vertailuun. Esitetyillä järjestelmävaihtoehdoilla on haettu mahdollisuutta yhdistää yleensä erillisinä toteutettuja työvaiheita yhteiseen soluun. Tuotannon joustavuus on ollut tuotantokapasiteettia tärkeämpi laitteistokokoonpanon valintaperuste.

Automatic target validation based on neuroscientific literature mining for tractography.

Target identification for tractography studies requires solid anatomical knowledge validated by an extensive literature review across species for each seed structure to be studied. Manual literature review to identify targets for a given seed region is tedious and potentially subjective. Therefore, complementary approaches would be useful. We propose to use text-mining models to automatically suggest potential targets from the neuroscientific literature, full-text articles and abstracts, so that they can be used for anatomical connection studies and more specifically for tractography. We applied text-mining models to three structures: two well-studied structures, since validated deep brain stimulation targets, the internal globus pallidus and the subthalamic nucleus and, the nucleus accumbens, an exploratory target for treating psychiatric disorders. We performed a systematic review of the literature to document the projections of the three selected structures and compared it with the targets proposed by text-mining models, both in rat and primate (including human). We ran probabilistic tractography on the nucleus accumbens and compared the output with the results of the text-mining models and literature review. Overall, text-mining the literature could find three times as many targets as two man-weeks of curation could. The overall efficiency of the text-mining against literature review in our study was 98% recall (at 36% precision), meaning that over all the targets for the three selected seeds, only one target has been missed by text-mining. We demonstrate that connectivity for a structure of interest can be extracted from a very large amount of publications and abstracts. We believe this tool will be useful in helping the neuroscience community to facilitate connectivity studies of particular brain regions. The text mining tools used for the study are part of the HBP Neuroinformatics Platform, publicly available at http://connectivity-brainer.rhcloud.com/.

Robottihitsauksen tehokas käyttöönotto

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää uuden robottihitsaussolun käyttöönotto siten, että se tapahtuu mahdollisimman tehokkaasti ja taloudellisesti. Uudella robotilla on tarkoitus hitsata nykyisin käsinhitsattavia kauhakuormaajien takarunkoja sekä alihankintana tilattavia kauhoja. Tuotannon kotiuttamisella alihankinnasta ja hitsauksen robotisoinnilla pyritään nostamaan omaa tuotantovolyymiä ja pienentämään valmistuskustannuksia. Työn teoriaosuudessa selvitettiin tyypilliset robotiikkaan liittyvät asiat, kuten robotit, niiden ohjaus ja ohjelmointi sekä perusteet hitsauksen robotisoinnista. Lisäksi käsiteltiin hitsattavan tuotteen suunnittelu- ja valmistusnäkökohtia ja hitsauksen kustannuslaskennan perusteet. Työn käytännön osuudessa tehtiin kartoitus kahden valitun takarunkomallin soveltuvuudesta robottihitsaukseen ja muutosehdotuksia, joilla voidaan parantaa runkojen robottihitsattavuutta. Lisäksi käytiin läpi hitsauksen nykytilanne osavalmistuksesta aina hitsauksen jälkeiseen viimeistelyyn. Hitsauksen kustannusten selvittämistä varten tehtiin taulukkolaskentaohjelma, jolla tehtiin esimerkkinä kuvitteellinen kustannussäätölaskelma. Tuottavuusmittari laadittiin niin, että sillä voidaan mitata sekä robotin että kokohitsaustapahtuman tehokkuutta pitkällä ja lyhyellä aikavälillä. Näiden lisäksi laadittiin sisäinen ohje robottihitsattavien kappaleiden silloitukseen sekä suunnittelijoille ohjeistus huomioitavista asioista suunniteltaessa kappaletta robottihitsaukseen.

Exploring transparent approaches to the authentication of signatures on artwork

This thesis is composed of three main parts. The first consists of a state of the art of the different notions that are significant to understand the elements surrounding art authentication in general, and of signatures in particular, and that the author deemed them necessary to fully grasp the microcosm that makes up this particular market. Individuals with a solid knowledge of the art and expertise area, and that are particularly interested in the present study are advised to advance directly to the fourth Chapter. The expertise of the signature, it's reliability, and the factors impacting the expert's conclusions are brought forward. The final aim of the state of the art is to offer a general list of recommendations based on an exhaustive review of the current literature and given in light of all of the exposed issues. These guidelines are specifically formulated for the expertise of signatures on paintings, but can also be applied to wider themes in the area of signature examination. The second part of this thesis covers the experimental stages of the research. It consists of the method developed to authenticate painted signatures on works of art. This method is articulated around several main objectives: defining measurable features on painted signatures and defining their relevance in order to establish the separation capacities between groups of authentic and simulated signatures. For the first time, numerical analyses of painted signatures have been obtained and are used to attribute their authorship to given artists. An in-depth discussion of the developed method constitutes the third and final part of this study. It evaluates the opportunities and constraints when applied by signature and handwriting experts in forensic science. A brief summary covering each chapter allows a rapid overview of the study and summarizes the aims and main themes of each chapter. These outlines presented below summarize the aims and main themes addressed in each chapter. Part I - Theory Chapter 1 exposes legal aspects surrounding the authentication of works of art by art experts. The definition of what is legally authentic, the quality and types of the experts that can express an opinion concerning the authorship of a specific painting, and standard deontological rules are addressed. The practices applied in Switzerland will be specifically dealt with. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the different scientific analyses that can be carried out on paintings (from the canvas to the top coat). Scientific examinations of works of art have become more common, as more and more museums equip themselves with laboratories, thus an understanding of their role in the art authentication process is vital. The added value that a signature expertise can have in comparison to other scientific techniques is also addressed. Chapter 3 provides a historical overview of the signature on paintings throughout the ages, in order to offer the reader an understanding of the origin of the signature on works of art and its evolution through time. An explanation is given on the transitions that the signature went through from the 15th century on and how it progressively took on its widely known modern form. Both this chapter and chapter 2 are presented to show the reader the rich sources of information that can be provided to describe a painting, and how the signature is one of these sources. Chapter 4 focuses on the different hypotheses the FHE must keep in mind when examining a painted signature, since a number of scenarios can be encountered when dealing with signatures on works of art. The different forms of signatures, as well as the variables that may have an influence on the painted signatures, are also presented. Finally, the current state of knowledge of the examination procedure of signatures in forensic science in general, and in particular for painted signatures, is exposed. The state of the art of the assessment of the authorship of signatures on paintings is established and discussed in light of the theoretical facets mentioned previously. Chapter 5 considers key elements that can have an impact on the FHE during his or her2 examinations. This includes a discussion on elements such as the skill, confidence and competence of an expert, as well as the potential bias effects he might encounter. A better understanding of elements surrounding handwriting examinations, to, in turn, better communicate results and conclusions to an audience, is also undertaken. Chapter 6 reviews the judicial acceptance of signature analysis in Courts and closes the state of the art section of this thesis. This chapter brings forward the current issues pertaining to the appreciation of this expertise by the non- forensic community, and will discuss the increasing number of claims of the unscientific nature of signature authentication. The necessity to aim for more scientific, comprehensive and transparent authentication methods will be discussed. The theoretical part of this thesis is concluded by a series of general recommendations for forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science, specifically for the expertise of signatures on paintings. These recommendations stem from the exhaustive review of the literature and the issues exposed from this review and can also be applied to the traditional examination of signatures (on paper). Part II - Experimental part Chapter 7 describes and defines the sampling, extraction and analysis phases of the research. The sampling stage of artists' signatures and their respective simulations are presented, followed by the steps that were undertaken to extract and determine sets of characteristics, specific to each artist, that describe their signatures. The method is based on a study of five artists and a group of individuals acting as forgers for the sake of this study. Finally, the analysis procedure of these characteristics to assess of the strength of evidence, and based on a Bayesian reasoning process, is presented. Chapter 8 outlines the results concerning both the artist and simulation corpuses after their optical observation, followed by the results of the analysis phase of the research. The feature selection process and the likelihood ratio evaluation are the main themes that are addressed. The discrimination power between both corpuses is illustrated through multivariate analysis. Part III - Discussion Chapter 9 discusses the materials, the methods, and the obtained results of the research. The opportunities, but also constraints and limits, of the developed method are exposed. Future works that can be carried out subsequent to the results of the study are also presented. Chapter 10, the last chapter of this thesis, proposes a strategy to incorporate the model developed in the last chapters into the traditional signature expertise procedures. Thus, the strength of this expertise is discussed in conjunction with the traditional conclusions reached by forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science. Finally, this chapter summarizes and advocates a list of formal recommendations for good practices for handwriting examiners. In conclusion, the research highlights the interdisciplinary aspect of signature examination of signatures on paintings. The current state of knowledge of the judicial quality of art experts, along with the scientific and historical analysis of paintings and signatures, are overviewed to give the reader a feel of the different factors that have an impact on this particular subject. The temperamental acceptance of forensic signature analysis in court, also presented in the state of the art, explicitly demonstrates the necessity of a better recognition of signature expertise by courts of law. This general acceptance, however, can only be achieved by producing high quality results through a well-defined examination process. This research offers an original approach to attribute a painted signature to a certain artist: for the first time, a probabilistic model used to measure the discriminative potential between authentic and simulated painted signatures is studied. The opportunities and limits that lie within this method of scientifically establishing the authorship of signatures on works of art are thus presented. In addition, the second key contribution of this work proposes a procedure to combine the developed method into that used traditionally signature experts in forensic science. Such an implementation into the holistic traditional signature examination casework is a large step providing the forensic, judicial and art communities with a solid-based reasoning framework for the examination of signatures on paintings. The framework and preliminary results associated with this research have been published (Montani, 2009a) and presented at international forensic science conferences (Montani, 2009b; Montani, 2012).

Simulation Supported Robot Programming using XML

The main objective of this master's thesis is to study robot programming using simulation software, and also how to embed the simulation software into company's own robot controlling software. The further goal is to study a new communication interface to the assembly line's components -more precisely how to connect the robot cell into this new communication system. Conveyor lines are already available where the conveyors use the new communication standard. The robot cell is not yet capable of communicating with to other devices using the new communication protocols. The main problem among robot manufacturers is that they all have their own communication systems and programming languages. There has not been any common programming language to program all the different robot manufacturers robots, until the RRS (Realistic Robot Simulation) standards were developed. The RRS - II makes it possible to create the robot programs in the simulation software and it gives a common user interface for different robot manufacturers robots. This thesis will present the RRS - II standard and the robot manufacturers situation for the RRS - II support. Thesis presents how the simulation software can be embedded into company's own robot controlling software and also how the robot cell can be connected to the CAMX (Computer Aided Manufacturing using XML) communication system.

Fingerprint identification: advances since the 2009 National Research Council report

"This paper will discuss the major developments in the area of fingerprint" "identification that followed the publication of the National Research Council (NRC, of the US National Academies of Sciences) report in 2009 entitled: Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. The report portrayed an image of a field of expertise used for decades without the necessary scientific research-based underpinning. The advances since the report and the needs in selected areas of fingerprinting will be detailed. It includes the measurement of the accuracy, reliability, repeatability and reproducibility of the conclusions offered by fingerprint experts. The paper will also pay attention to the development of statistical models allow- ing assessment of fingerprint comparisons. As a corollary of these developments, the next challenge is to reconcile a traditional practice domi- nated by deterministic conclusions with the probabilistic logic of any statistical model. There is a call for greater candour and fingerprint experts will need to communicate differently on the strengths and limitations of their findings. Their testimony will have to go beyond the blunt assertion" "of the uniqueness of fingerprints or the opinion delivered ispe dixit."

Basal ganglia-cortical structural connectivity in Huntington's disease.

Huntington's disease is an incurable neurodegenerative disease caused by inheritance of an expanded cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) trinucleotide repeat within the Huntingtin gene. Extensive volume loss and altered diffusion metrics in the basal ganglia, cortex and white matter are seen when patients with Huntington's disease (HD) undergo structural imaging, suggesting that changes in basal ganglia-cortical structural connectivity occur. The aims of this study were to characterise altered patterns of basal ganglia-cortical structural connectivity with high anatomical precision in premanifest and early manifest HD, and to identify associations between structural connectivity and genetic or clinical markers of HD. 3-Tesla diffusion tensor magnetic resonance images were acquired from 14 early manifest HD subjects, 17 premanifest HD subjects and 18 controls. Voxel-based analyses of probabilistic tractography were used to quantify basal ganglia-cortical structural connections. Canonical variate analysis was used to demonstrate disease-associated patterns of altered connectivity and to test for associations between connectivity and genetic and clinical markers of HD; this is the first study in which such analyses have been used. Widespread changes were seen in basal ganglia-cortical structural connectivity in early manifest HD subjects; this has relevance for development of therapies targeting the striatum. Premanifest HD subjects had a pattern of connectivity more similar to that of controls, suggesting progressive change in connections over time. Associations between structural connectivity patterns and motor and cognitive markers of disease severity were present in early manifest subjects. Our data suggest the clinical phenotype in manifest HD may be at least partly a result of altered connectivity. Hum Brain Mapp 36:1728-1740, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.