Towards robust network based complex systems : from evolutionary cellular automata to biological models

Abstract Sitting between your past and your future doesn't mean you are in the present. Dakota Skye Complex systems science is an interdisciplinary field grouping under the same umbrella dynamical phenomena from social, natural or mathematical sciences. The emergence of a higher order organization or behavior, transcending that expected of the linear addition of the parts, is a key factor shared by all these systems. Most complex systems can be modeled as networks that represent the interactions amongst the system's components. In addition to the actual nature of the part's interactions, the intrinsic topological structure of underlying network is believed to play a crucial role in the remarkable emergent behaviors exhibited by the systems. Moreover, the topology is also a key a factor to explain the extraordinary flexibility and resilience to perturbations when applied to transmission and diffusion phenomena. In this work, we study the effect of different network structures on the performance and on the fault tolerance of systems in two different contexts. In the first part, we study cellular automata, which are a simple paradigm for distributed computation. Cellular automata are made of basic Boolean computational units, the cells; relying on simple rules and information from- the surrounding cells to perform a global task. The limited visibility of the cells can be modeled as a network, where interactions amongst cells are governed by an underlying structure, usually a regular one. In order to increase the performance of cellular automata, we chose to change its topology. We applied computational principles inspired by Darwinian evolution, called evolutionary algorithms, to alter the system's topological structure starting from either a regular or a random one. The outcome is remarkable, as the resulting topologies find themselves sharing properties of both regular and random network, and display similitudes Watts-Strogtz's small-world network found in social systems. Moreover, the performance and tolerance to probabilistic faults of our small-world like cellular automata surpasses that of regular ones. In the second part, we use the context of biological genetic regulatory networks and, in particular, Kauffman's random Boolean networks model. In some ways, this model is close to cellular automata, although is not expected to perform any task. Instead, it simulates the time-evolution of genetic regulation within living organisms under strict conditions. The original model, though very attractive by it's simplicity, suffered from important shortcomings unveiled by the recent advances in genetics and biology. We propose to use these new discoveries to improve the original model. Firstly, we have used artificial topologies believed to be closer to that of gene regulatory networks. We have also studied actual biological organisms, and used parts of their genetic regulatory networks in our models. Secondly, we have addressed the improbable full synchronicity of the event taking place on. Boolean networks and proposed a more biologically plausible cascading scheme. Finally, we tackled the actual Boolean functions of the model, i.e. the specifics of how genes activate according to the activity of upstream genes, and presented a new update function that takes into account the actual promoting and repressing effects of one gene on another. Our improved models demonstrate the expected, biologically sound, behavior of previous GRN model, yet with superior resistance to perturbations. We believe they are one step closer to the biological reality.

¿Es posible reducir el gasto sanitario a través del subsidio a los seguros sanitarios privados? La doble cobertura sanitaria en Catalunya. Estimación de patrones de utilización de servicios sanitarios y simulación de costes asociados a la asistencia sanit

The objective of this study consists in quantifying in money terms the potential reduction in usage of public health care outlets associated to the tenure of double (public plus private) insurance. In order to address the problem, a probabilistic model for visits to physicians is specified and estimated using data from the Catalonian Health Survey. Also, a model for the marginal cost of a visit to a physician is estimated using data from a representative sample of fee-for-service payments from a major insurer. Combining the estimates from the two models it is possible to quantify in money terms the cost/savings of alternative policies which bear an impact on the adoption of double insurance by the population. The results suggest that the private sector absorbs an important volume of demand which would be re-directed to the public sector if consumers cease to hold double insurance.

Interhuman transmission as a potential key parameter for geographical variation in the prevalence of Pneumocystis jirovecii dihydropteroate synthase mutations.

BACKGROUND: Pneumocystis jirovecii dihydropteroate synthase (DHPS) mutations are associated with failure of prophylaxis with sulfa drugs. This retrospective study sought to better understand the geographical variation in the prevalence of these mutations. METHODS: DHPS polymorphisms in 394 clinical specimens from immunosuppressed patients who received a diagnosis of P. jirovecii pneumonia and who were hospitalized in 3 European cities were examined using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) single-strand conformation polymorphism. Demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained from patients' medical charts. RESULTS: Of the 394 patients, 79 (20%) were infected with a P. jirovecii strain harboring one or both of the previously reported DHPS mutations. The prevalence of DHPS mutations was significantly higher in Lyon than in Switzerland (33.0% vs 7.5%; P < .001). The proportion of patients with no evidence of sulfa exposure who harbored a mutant P. jirovecii DHPS genotype was significantly higher in Lyon than in Switzerland (29.7% vs 3.0%; P < .001). During the study period in Lyon, in contrast to the Swiss hospitals, measures to prevent dissemination of P. jirovecii from patients with P. jirovecii pneumonia were generally not implemented, and most patients received suboptimal prophylaxis, the failure of which was strictly associated with mutated P. jirovecii. Thus, nosocomial interhuman transmission of mutated strains directly or indirectly from other individuals in whom selection of mutants occurred may explain the high proportion of mutations without sulfa exposure in Lyon. CONCLUSIONS: Interhuman transmission of P. jirovecii, rather than selection pressure by sulfa prophylaxis, may play a predominant role in the geographical variation in the prevalence in the P. jirovecii DHPS mutations.

Obesity and overweight associated with lower rates of colorectal cancer screening in Switzerland.

Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with reduced CRC mortality, but low screening rates have been reported in several settings. The aim of the study was to assess predictors of low CRC screening in Switzerland. A retrospective cohort of a random sample of 940 patients aged 50-80 years followed for 2 years from four Swiss University primary care settings was used. Patients with illegal residency status and a history of CRC or colorectal polyps were excluded. We abstracted sociodemographic data of patients and physicians, patient health status, and indicators derived from RAND's Quality Assessment Tools from medical charts. We defined CRC screening as colonoscopy in the last 10 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy in the last 5 years, or fecal occult blood testing in the last 2 years. We used bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of 940 patients (mean age 63.9 years, 42.7% women), 316 (33.6%) had undergone CRC screening. In multivariate analysis, birthplace in a country outside of Western Europe and North America [odds ratio (OR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45-0.97], male sex of the physician in charge (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.91), BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m (OR 0.66, CI 0.46-0.96) and at least 30.0 kg/m (OR 0.61, CI 0.40-0.90) were associated with lower CRC screening rates. Obesity, overweight, birthplace outside of Western Europe and North America, and male sex of the physician in charge were associated with lower CRC screening rates in Swiss University primary care settings. Physician perception of obesity and its impact on their recommendation for CRC screening might be a target for further research.

Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary 'Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications' by Budowle et al. (2011), published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al. (2011), we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community - as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief. Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/3

The hematology laboratory in blood doping (bd): 2014 update on the athlete biological passport (APB)

Introduction: Blood doping (BD) is the use of Erythropoietic Stimulating Agents (ESAs) and/or transfusion to increase aerobic performance in athletes. Direct toxicologic techniques are insufficient to unmask sophisticated doping protocols. The Hematological module of the ABP (World Anti-Doping Agency), associates decision support technology and expert assessment to indirectly detect BD hematological effects. Methods: The ABP module is based on blood parameters, under strict pre-analytical and analytical rules for collection, storage and transport at 2-12°C, internal and external QC. Accuracy, reproducibility and interlaboratory harmonization fulfill forensic standard. Blood samples are collected in competition and out-ofcompetition. Primary parameters for longitudinal monitoring are: - hemoglobin (HGB); - reticulocyte percentage (RET); - OFF score, indicator of suppressed erythropoiesis, calculated as [HGB(g/L) * 60-√RET%]. Statistical calculation predicts individual expected limits by probabilistic inference. Secondary parameters are RBC, HCT, MCHC-MCH-MCV-RDW-IFR. ABP profiles flagged as atypical are review by experts in hematology, pharmacology, sports medicine or physiology, and classified as: - normal - suspect (to target) - likely due to BD - likely due to pathology. Results: Thousands of athletes worldwide are currently monitored. Since 2010, at least 35 athletes have been sanctioned and others are prosecuted on the sole basis of abnormal ABP, with a 240% increase of positivity to direct tests for ESA, thanks to improved targeting of suspicious athletes (WADA data). Specific doping scenarios have been identified by the Experts (Table and Figure). Figure. Typical HGB and RET profiles in two highly suspicious athletes. A. Sample 2: simultaneous increases in HGB and RET (likely ESA stimulation) in a male. B. Samples 3, 6 and 7: "OFF" picture, with high HGB and low RET in a female. Sample 10: normal HGB and increased RET (ESA or blood withdrawal). Conclusions: ABP is a powerful tool for indirect doping detection, based on the recognition of specific, unphysiological changes triggered by blood doping. The effect of factors of heterogeneity, such as sex and altitude, must also be considered. Schumacher YO, et al. Drug Test Anal 2012, 4:846-853. Sottas PE, et al. Clin Chem 2011, 57:969-976.

Recognition judgments and the performance of the recognition heuristic depend on the size of the reference class

In a series of three experiments, participants made inferences about which one of a pair of two objects scored higher on a criterion. The first experiment was designed to contrast the prediction of Probabilistic Mental Model theory (Gigerenzer, Hoffrage, & Kleinbölting, 1991) concerning sampling procedure with the hard-easy effect. The experiment failed to support the theory's prediction that a particular pair of randomly sampled item sets would differ in percentage correct; but the observation that German participants performed practically as well on comparisons between U.S. cities (many of which they did not even recognize) than on comparisons between German cities (about which they knew much more) ultimately led to the formulation of the recognition heuristic. Experiment 2 was a second, this time successful, attempt to unconfound item difficulty and sampling procedure. In Experiment 3, participants' knowledge and recognition of each city was elicited, and how often this could be used to make an inference was manipulated. Choices were consistent with the recognition heuristic in about 80% of the cases when it discriminated and people had no additional knowledge about the recognized city (and in about 90% when they had such knowledge). The frequency with which the heuristic could be used affected the percentage correct, mean confidence, and overconfidence as predicted. The size of the reference class, which was also manipulated, modified these effects in meaningful and theoretically important ways.

Direct cost of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump

Quantitative research that aimed to identify the mean total cost (MTC) of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump (PCA) in the management of pain. The non-probabilistic sample corresponded to the observation of 81 procedures in 17 units of the Central Institute of the Clinics Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo. We calculated the MTC multiplying by the time spent by nurses at a unit cost of direct labor, adding the cost of materials and medications/solutions. The MTC of connecting was R$ 107.91; maintenance R$ 110.55 and disconnecting R$ 4.94. The results found will subsidize discussions about the need to transfer money from the Unified Health System to hospitals units that perform this technique of analgesic therapy and it will contribute to the cost management aimed at making efficient and effective decision-making in the allocation of available resources.

Intimate Partner Violence Against Pregnant Women: Study About The Repercussions On The Obstetric And Neonatal Results

This observational, descriptive and analytic study aimed to identify the prevalence of IPV cases among pregnant women and classify them according to the type and frequency; identify the obstetric and neonatal results and their associations with the intimate partner violence (IPV) occurrence in the current pregnancy. It was developed with 232 pregnant women who had prenatal care at a public maternity hospital. Data were collected via structured interview and in the patients’ charts and analyzed through the statistic software SAS® 9.0. Among the participants, 15.5% suffered IPV during pregnancy, among that 14.7% suffered psychological violence, 5.2% physical violence and 0.4% sexual violence. Women who did not desire the pregnancy had more chances of suffering IPV (p<0.00; OR=4.32 and 95% CI [1.77 – 10.54]). With regards to the obstetric and neonatal repercussions, there was no statistical association between the variables investigated. Thus, for the study participants there were no negative obstetric and neonatal repercussions related to IPV during pregnancy.

The use of the Family Management Style Framework to evaluate the family management of liver transplantation in adolescence

Objective: To understand the family management experience of liver transplantation during adolescence based on the Family Management Style Framework(FMSF). Method: This is a case study that used the FMSF as theoretical framework and the hybrid model of thematic analysis as methodological reference. The case presented is from an adolescent’s family that lives in Salvador, Bahia. The data were collected through interviews with the mother and the patient charts analysis. Results: The results shows that the family defines the transplantation as threatening and there are divergence between mother and daughter related to the teen’s capabilities perception. Facing those discrepancies, the family assumes a protective posture by believing that the teen cannot take care of herself alone. The perceived consequences reflect how much the uncertainty permeates the family environment. Conclusion: It is concluded that the use of a model to evaluate the management can help professionals to direct and plan specific interventions.



Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29%, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90% on Saturdays, 4.29% on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45%) than for women (0.64%) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62%, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84%, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

Determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned or ambivalent pregnancies

Objective To analyze the determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned and ambivalent pregnancies. Method Cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 366 pregnant women from 12 primary health care units in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A multinomial logistic regression was performed, comparing three groups: women who used emergency contraception to prevent ongoing pregnancies (reference); women who made no use of emergency contraception, but used other contraceptive methods; and women who made no use of any contraceptive methods at all. Results Cohabitation with a partner was the common determinant of emergency contraception non-use. No pregnancy risk awareness, ambivalent pregnancies and no previous use of emergency contraception also contributed to emergency contraception non-use. Conclusion Apart from what is pointed out in the literature, knowledge of emergency contraception and the fertile period were not associated to its use.

Use and records of child health handbook focused on growth and development

Objective To evaluate the use and records of the Child Health Handbook (CHH), especially growth and development. Method Cross-sectional study with 358 mother-child pairs registered in 12 Primary Health Centers (PHCs) of a small municipality. Mothers were interviewed at the PHC from February to April 2013 using a questionnaire. Data analysis was done using WHO Anthro software, Epi InfoTM and Stata. Results Fifty-three percent of the mothers were carrying the CHH at the time of the interview, similar to the proportion of mothers who were instructed to bring the CHH to health appointments. Annotations in the CHH during the visits were reported by 49%. The vaccination schedule was completed in 97% of the CHH, but only 9% and 8% of the CHH, respectively, contained growth charts and properly completed developmental milestones. Conclusion Low rates of use and unsatisfactory record-keeping in the CHH reinforce the need for investment in professional training and community awareness for the CHH to become an effective instrument of promotion of child health.

La planification de sortie des personnes âgées hospitalisées dans un service de médecine

Contexte: la planification infirmière de sortie des personnes âgées est une composante importante des soins pour assurer une transition optimale entre l'hôpital et la maison. Beaucoup d'événements indésirables peuvent survenir après la sortie de l'hôpital. Dans une perspective de système de santé, les facteurs qui augmentent ce risque incluent un nombre croissant de patients âgés, l'augmentation de la complexité des soins nécessitant une meilleure coordination des soins après la sortie, ainsi qu'une augmentation de la pression financière. Objectif: évaluer si les interventions infirmières liées à la planification de sortie chez les personnes âgées et leurs proches aidants sont prédictives de leur perception d'être prêts pour le départ, du niveau d'anxiété du patient le jour de la sortie de l'hôpital et du nombre de recours non programmé aux services de santé durant les trente jours après la sortie. Méthode: le devis est prédictif corrélationnel avec un échantillon de convenance de 235 patients. Les patients âgés de 65 ans de quatre unités d'hôpitaux dans le canton de Vaud en Suisse ont été recrutés entre novembre 2011 et octobre 2012. Les types et les niveaux d'interventions infirmières ont été extraits des dossiers de soins et analysés selon les composantes du modèle de Naylor. La perception d'être prêt pour la sortie et l'anxiété ont été mesurées un jour avant la sortie en utilisant l'échelle de perception d'être prêt pour la sortie et l'échelle Hospital Anxiety and Depression. Un mois après la sortie, un entretien téléphonique a été mené pour évaluer le recours non programmé aux services de santé durant cette période. Des analyses descriptives et un modèle randomisé à deux niveaux ont été utilisés pour analyser les données. Résultats: peu de patients ont reçu une planification globale de sortie. L'intervention la plus fréquente était la coordination (M = 55,0/100). et la moins fréquente était la participation du patient à la planification de sortie (M = 16,1/100). Contrairement aux hypothèses formulées, les patients ayant bénéficié d'un plus grand nombre d'interventions infirmières de préparation à la sortie ont un niveau moins élevé de perception d'être prêt pour le départ (B = -0,3, p < 0,05, IC 95% [-0,57, -0,11]); le niveau d'anxiété n'est pas associé à la planification de sortie (r = -0,21, p <0,01) et la présence de troubles cognitifs est le seul facteur prédictif d'une réhospitalisation dans les 30 jours après la sortie de l'hôpital ( OR = 1,50, p = 0,04, IC 95% [1,02, 2,22]). Discussion: en se focalisant sur chaque intervention de la planification de sortie, cette étude permet une meilleure compréhension du processus de soins infirmiers actuellement en cours dans les hôpitaux vaudois. Elle met en lumière les lacunes entre les pratiques actuelles et celles de pratiques exemplaires donnant ainsi une orientation pour des changements dans la pratique clinique et des recherches ultérieures. - Background: Nursing discharge planning in elderly patients is an important component of care to ensure optimal transition from hospital to home. Many adverse events may occur after hospital discharge. From a health care system perspective, contributing factors that increase the risk of these adverse events include a growing number of elderly patients, increased complexity of care requiring better care coordination after discharge, as well as increased financial pressure. Aim: To investigate whether older medical inpatients who receive comprehensive discharge planning interventions a) feel more ready for hospital discharge, b) have reduced anxiety at the time of discharge, c) have lower health care utilization after discharge compared to those who receive less comprehensive interventions. Methods: Using a predictive correlational design, a convenience sample of 235 patients was recruited. Patients aged 65 and older from 4 units of hospitals in the canton of Vaud in Switzerland were enrolled between November 2011 and October 2012. Types and level of interventions were extracted from the medical charts and analyzed according to the components of Naylor's model. Discharge readiness and anxiety were measured one day before discharge using the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale. A telephone interview was conducted one month after hospital discharge to asses unplanned health services utilization during this follow-up period. Descriptive analyses and a two- level random model were used for statistical analyses. Results: Few patients received comprehensive discharge planning interventions. The most frequent intervention was Coordination (M = 55,0/100) and the least common was Patient participation in the discharge planning (M = 16,1/100). Contrary to our hypotheses, patients who received more nursing discharge interventions were significantly less ready to go home (B = -0,3, p < 0,05, IC 95% [-0,57, -0,11]); their anxiety level was not associated with their readiness for hospital discharge (r = -0,21, p <0,01) and cognitive impairment was the only factor that predicted rehospitalization within 30 days after discharge ( OR = 1,50, p = 0,04, IC 95% [1,02, 2,22]). Discussion: By focusing on each component of the discharge planning, this study provides a greater and more detailed insight on the usual nursing process currently performed in medical inpatients units. Results identified several gaps between current and Best practices, providing guidance to changes in clinical practice and further research.

The sign of the Cross of Andreas in the iris and Diabetes Mellitus: a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVETo compare the development of diabetes mellitus in subjects with and without the sign of the Cross of Andreas in the iris over a period of four years.METHODA prospective, descriptive study of quantitative approach. This cohort study had 91 patients without the disease, with and without the signal. The monitoring was conducted by means of the records in medical charts.RESULTSAt the end of the research, 28.2% of the group with the sign of the Cross of Andreas was diagnosed with diabetes and 56.5% had two or more episodes of impaired glucose tolerance. In the group without the sign, 4.4% was diagnosed with the disease and 24.5% had two or more episodes of glucose intolerance. There was a statistically significant difference between the groups regarding the development of the disease and glucose intolerance.CONCLUSIONThe group with the Cross of Andreas developed more glucose intolerance and diabetes than the group without the sign.