Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Untreated Mild Hyperglycemia During Pregnancy and Anthropometric Measures of Obesity in Offspring at Age 5-7 Years

OBJECTIVE: Obesity in the offspring of women with hyperglycemia during pregnancy has been reported, but the results are conflicting. This study examined the association of hyperglycemia during pregnancy and anthropometry in 5- to 7-year-old offspring whose mothers participated in the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes (HAPO) Study at the Belfast Centre.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Women in the HAPO study underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at approximately 28 weeks of gestation. Mothers and caregivers remained blinded to the results unless the fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentration was >5.8 mmol/L or the 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG) concentration was >11.1 mmol/L. Offspring weight, height, and skin-fold thicknesses (triceps, subscapular, and suprailiac) were measured at age 5-7 years. Overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity were defined as a BMI z score ≥85th, ≥95th, and ≥99th percentile, respectively, based on the 1990 British Growth Standard.

RESULTS: Belfast HAPO offspring (n = 1,320, 82%) aged 5-7 years attended for follow-up. Using multiple regression, maternal FPG, 1h PG, and 2hPG did not show any relation to offspring BMI z score or offspring skin-fold sum independent of maternal BMI at OGTT and offspring birth weight z score. This lack of association with maternal glycemia persisted with the offspring BMI z score expressed as ≥85th, ≥95th, or 99th percentile, and the sum of skin folds expressed as ≥90th percentile specific for sex. The initially significant relation between FPG and all offspring adiposity measures was explained by maternal BMI at the OGTT.

CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for maternal BMI at the OGTT, higher maternal FPG concentration during pregnancy (short of diabetes) is no longer a risk factor for obesity, as reflected by BMI and the sum of skin folds in offspring aged 5-7 years.

Awareness of sunburn in childhood, use of sunbeds and change of moles in Denmark, Northern Ireland, Norway and Sweden

Background: Malignant melanoma (MM) is increasing rapidly in Northern Europe. To reduce incidence and mortality through earlier diagnosis, public awareness of MM is important. Thus, we aim to examine awareness of risk factors and a symptom of MM, and how awareness varies by country and socio-demographic factors in Denmark, Northern Ireland (NI), Norway and Sweden.

Methods: Population-based telephone interviews using the ‘Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer’ measure were conducted in 2011 among 8355 adults ≥50 years as part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership Module 2. Prevalence ratios (PRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated.

Results: In these four countries, lowest awareness was found for ‘sunburn in childhood’ (63%), whereas awareness was high for ‘use of sunbeds’ (91%) and ‘mole change’ (97%). Lack of awareness of ‘sunburn in childhood’ was more prevalent among respondents from Norway [PR = 1.38 (1.28–1.48)] but less prevalent among respondents from Northern Ireland (NI) [PR = 0.78 (0.72–0.85)] and Sweden [PR = 0.86 (0.79–0.93)] compared with respondents from Denmark. Lack of awareness of ‘use of sunbeds’ was more prevalent among respondents from Norway [PR = 2.99 (2.39–3.74)], Sweden [PR = 1.57 (1.22–2.00)], and NI [PR = 1.65 (1.30–2.10)] compared with respondents form Denmark. Being a man, age ≥70, living alone, and having lower education, were each independently associated with lack of MM-awareness.

Conclusions: The results indicate relatively low awareness of ‘sunburn in childhood’ as a risk factor for MM, and important disparities in MM-awareness across countries and socio-demographic groups. Improved and more directed initiatives to enhance public MM-awareness, particularly about ‘sunburn in childhood’, are needed.

Primary care organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is the most common cause of death worldwide.

Aim: To determine the long-term impact of organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD.

Design and setting: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies from CENTRAL, MEDLINE®, Embase, and CINAHL published January 2007 to January 2013.

Method: Searches were conducted for randomised controlled trials of patients with established IHD, with long-term follow-up, of cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change in primary care or community settings. A random-effects model was used and risk ratios were calculated.

Results: Five studies were included with 4005 participants. Meta-analysis of four studies with mortality data at 4.7–6 years showed that organisational interventions were associated with approximately 20% reduced mortality, with a risk ratio (RR) for all-cause mortality of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66 to 0.93), and a RR for cardiac-related mortality of 0.74 (95% CI = 0.58 to 0.94). Two studies reported mortality data at 10 years. Analysis of these data showed no significant differences between groups. There were insufficient data to conduct a meta-analysis on the effect of interventions on hospital admissions. Additional analyses showed no significant association between organisational interventions and risk factor management or appropriate prescribing at 4.7–6 years.

Conclusion: Cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change are associated with a reduced risk of death for at least 4–6 years. There is insufficient evidence to conclude whether this beneficial effect is maintained indefinitely.

Dimensions of Suicide Research: Substance misuse in life and death in a 2-year cohort of suicides

Background
While substance misuse is a key risk factor in suicide relatively little is known about the relationship between lifetime misuse and misuse in suicide.

Aim
To examine the relationship between a history of substance misuse and misuse at the time of a suicide.

Method
Linkage of Coroner reports of 403 suicides occurring over two years with associated primary care records. History of substance misuse was defined as alcohol misuse and/or prescription or illicit drug misuse, for which medical help was sought.

Results
With alcohol misuse: 65% of the cohort had previously sought help and 42% were intoxicated at the suicide (with 30% of these seeing their GP in the previous year). With misuse of other substances: 54% of the cohort were tested for blood toxicology (37% of these tested positive) - with positive toxicology defined as an excess of prescription drugs over the therapeutic minima and/or detection of illicit substances. Those tested were more likely to be young and have a history of drug abuse.

Conclusion
Understanding the links between substance misuse and the use of substances in conjunction with the act of suicide is discussed in light of the study results and current pathology and coroner practices.

The HIF-1alpha C1772T polymorphism may be associated with susceptibility to clinically localised prostate cancer but not with elevated expression of hypoxic biomarkers

We investigated the role of the C1772T polymorphisms in exon 12 of the Hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha (HIF-1alpha) gene C1772T genotype in prostate cancer (PCa) and amplification of the hypoxic response. We identified the heterozygous germline CT genotype as an increased risk factor for clinically localised prostate cancer (Odds ratio = 6.2; p < 0.0001). While immunostaining intensity for HIF-1alpha and VEGF was significantly enhanced in 75% of PCa specimens when compared to matched benign specimens (p < 0.0001), the CT genotype did not modulate the kinetics of HIF-1alpha protein expression in hypoxia in vitro, and was not associated with enhanced expression of hypoxic biomarkers. This study provides the first evidence of an increased risk for clinically localised prostate cancer in men carrying the C1772T HIF-1alpha gene polymorphism. Although our results did not suggest an association between expression of hypoxic biomarkers and genotype status, the correlation may merit further investigation.

Wilms' tumor gene 1 (WT1) expression in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia:a wide range of WT1 expression levels, its impact on prognosis and minimal residual disease monitoring

Wilms' tumor gene 1 (WT1) is overexpressed in the majority (70-90%) of acute leukemias and has been identified as an independent adverse prognostic factor, a convenient minimal residual disease (MRD) marker and potential therapeutic target in acute leukemia. We examined WT1 expression patterns in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), where its clinical implication remains unclear. Using a real-time quantitative PCR designed according to Europe Against Cancer Program recommendations, we evaluated WT1 expression in 125 consecutively enrolled patients with childhood ALL (106 BCP-ALL, 19 T-ALL) and compared it with physiologic WT1 expression in normal and regenerating bone marrow (BM). In childhood B-cell precursor (BCP)-ALL, we detected a wide range of WT1 levels (5 logs) with a median WT1 expression close to that of normal BM. WT1 expression in childhood T-ALL was significantly higher than in BCP-ALL (P<0.001). Patients with MLL-AF4 translocation showed high WT1 overexpression (P<0.01) compared to patients with other or no chromosomal aberrations. Older children (> or =10 years) expressed higher WT1 levels than children under 10 years of age (P<0.001), while there was no difference in WT1 expression in patients with peripheral blood leukocyte count (WBC) > or =50 x 10(9)/l and lower. Analysis of relapsed cases (14/125) indicated that an abnormal increase or decrease in WT1 expression was associated with a significantly increased risk of relapse (P=0.0006), and this prognostic impact of WT1 was independent of other main risk factors (P=0.0012). In summary, our study suggests that WT1 expression in childhood ALL is very variable and much lower than in AML or adult ALL. WT1, thus, will not be a useful marker for MRD detection in childhood ALL, however, it does represent a potential independent risk factor in childhood ALL. Interestingly, a proportion of childhood ALL patients express WT1 at levels below the normal physiological BM WT1 expression, and this reduced WT1 expression appears to be associated with a higher risk of relapse.

Education, gender, and state-level disparities in the health of older Indians: Evidence from biomarker data

Using new biomarker data from the 2010 pilot round of the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI), we investigate education, gender, and state-level disparities in health. We find that hemoglobin level, a marker for anemia, is lower for respondents with no schooling (0.7 g/dL less in the adjusted model) compared to those with some formal education and is also lower for females than for males (2.0 g/dL less in the adjusted model). In addition, we find that about one third of respondents in our sample aged 45 or older have high C-reaction protein (CRP) levels (>3 mg/L), an indicator of inflammation and a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We find no evidence of educational or gender differences in CRP, but there are significant state-level disparities, with Kerala residents exhibiting the lowest CRP levels (a mean of 1.96 mg/L compared to 3.28 mg/L in Rajasthan, the state with the highest CRP). We use the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition approach to explain group-level differences, and find that state-level disparities in CRP are mainly due to heterogeneity in the association of the observed characteristics of respondents with CRP, rather than differences in the distribution of endowments across the sampled state populations.

Smoking and All-cause Mortality in Older Adults: Results From the CHANCES Consortium

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years.

METHODS: Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014.

RESULTS: A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority.

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

The use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents with ruxolitinib in patients with myelofibrosis in COMFORT-II: an open-label, phase 3 study assessing efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib versus best available therapy in the treatment of myelofibrosis

BACKGROUND: Anemia is considered a negative prognostic risk factor for survival in patients with myelofibrosis. Most patients with myelofibrosis are anemic, and 35-54 % present with anemia at diagnosis. Ruxolitinib, a potent inhibitor of Janus kinase (JAK) 1 and JAK2, was associated with an overall survival benefit and improvements in splenomegaly and patient-reported outcomes in patients with myelofibrosis in the two phase 3 COMFORT studies. Consistent with the ruxolitinib mechanism of action, anemia was a frequently reported adverse event. In clinical practice, anemia is sometimes managed with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs). This post hoc analysis evaluated the safety and efficacy of concomitant ruxolitinib and ESA administration in patients enrolled in COMFORT-II, an open-label, phase 3 study comparing the efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib with best available therapy for treatment of myelofibrosis. Patients were randomized (2:1) to receive ruxolitinib 15 or 20 mg twice daily or best available therapy. Spleen volume was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography scan.

RESULTS: Thirteen of 146 ruxolitinib-treated patients had concomitant ESA administration (+ESA). The median exposure to ruxolitinib was 114 weeks in the +ESA group and 111 weeks in the overall ruxolitinib arm; the median ruxolitinib dose intensity was 33 mg/day for each group. Six weeks before the first ESA administration, 10 of the 13 patients had grade 3/4 hemoglobin abnormalities. These had improved to grade 2 in 7 of the 13 patients by 6 weeks after the first ESA administration. The rate of packed red blood cell transfusions per month within 12 weeks before and after first ESA administration remained the same in 1 patient, decreased in 2 patients, and increased in 3 patients; 7 patients remained transfusion independent. Reductions in splenomegaly were observed in 69 % of evaluable patients (9/13) following first ESA administration.

CONCLUSIONS: Concomitant use of an ESA with ruxolitinib was well tolerated and did not affect the efficacy of ruxolitinib. Further investigations evaluating the effects of ESAs to alleviate anemia in ruxolitinib-treated patients are warranted (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT00934544; July 6, 2009).

Dyslipidemia and Diabetic Macular Edema: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Topic: A systematic review and meta-analysis of dyslipidemia and diabetic macular edema (DME). 

Clinical Relevance: Diabetic macular edema causes impairment of vision in patients with diabetes, and dyslipidemia has been reported as a risk factor for its development. A systematic review with a meta-analysis was undertaken to examine the evidence of an association between dyslipidemia and DME. 

Methods: We defined eligibility criteria as randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies reporting on the relationship between blood lipid levels and DME. We performed a literature search in MEDLINE, PubMed, and Embase from inception to September 2014. We used the NewcastleeOttawa scale to assess the quality of case-control, cross-sectional, and cohort studies, and the Cochrane risk of bias tool for RCTs. 

Results: The search strategy identified 4959 publications. After screening, we selected 21 articles for review (5 cross-sectional, 5 cohort, 7 case-control, and 4 RCTs). Meta-analysis of case-control studies revealed that mean levels of total serum cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoproteins (LDLs), and serum triglycerides (TGs) were significantly higher in patients with DME compared with those without DME (TC: 30.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 21.14e39.02; P < 0.001; LDL: 18.62; 95% CI, 5.80e31.43; P < 0.05; TG: 24.82; 95% CI, 9.21e40.42; P < 0.05). Meta-analysis of RCTs did not show significant risk in worsening of hard exudates and severity of DME in the lipid-lowering group compared with placebo (hard exudates: relative risk, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.47e2.11; P ¼ 1.00; DME: relative risk, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.75e1.86; P ¼ 0.48). 

Conclusions: Despite evidence from the cohort studies and meta-analysis of the case-control studies suggesting a strong relationship between lipid levels and DME, this was not confirmed by the meta-analysis that included only prospective RCTs. Therefore, given the significant public health relevance of the topic, the relationship between lipid levels and DME deserves further investigation.

Six-year follow-up of the SPHERE RCT: secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice.

Objective: To determine the long-term effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care aimed at improving outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease.

Design: A 6-year follow-up of a cluster randomised controlled trial, which found after 18 months that both total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were significantly reduced in intervention practices (8% absolute reduction).

Setting: 48 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease at baseline in the original trial.

Intervention: The original intervention consisted of tailored practice and patient plans; training sessions for practitioners in medication prescribing and behavioural change; and regular patient recall system. Control practices provided usual care. Following the intervention period, all supports from the research team to intervention practices ceased.

Outcome measures: Primary outcome: hospital admissions, all cause and cardiovascular; secondary outcomes: mortality; blood pressure and cholesterol control.

Results: At 6-year follow-up, data were collected from practice records of 696 patients (77%). For those who had died, we censored their data at the point of death and cause of death was established. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control practices in either total (OR 0.83 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.28)) or cardiovascular hospital admissions (OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.65)). We confirmed mortality status of 886 of the original 903 patients (98%). There were no significant differences in mortality (15% in intervention and 16% in control) or in the proportions of patients above target control for systolic blood pressure or total cholesterol.

Conclusions: Initial significant differences in the numbers of total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were not maintained at 6 years and no differences were found in mortality or blood pressure and cholesterol control. Policymakers need to continue to assess the effectiveness of previously efficacious programmes.

Trial registration number: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

The welfare implications of large litter size in the domestic pig I:Biologica factors

Increasing litter size has long been a goal of pig breeders and producers, and may have implications for pig (Sus scrofa domesticus) welfare. This paper reviews the scientific evidence on biological factors affecting sow and piglet welfare in relation to large litter size. It is concluded that, in a number of ways, large litter size is a risk factor for decreased animal welfare in pig production. Increased litter size is associated with increased piglet mortality, which is likely to be associated with significant negative animal welfare impacts. In surviving piglets, many of the causes of mortality can also occur in non-lethal forms that cause suffering. Intense teat competition may increase the likelihood that some piglets do not gain adequate access to milk, causing starvation in the short term and possibly long-term detriments to health. Also, increased litter size leads to more piglets with low birth weight which is associated with a variety of negative long-term effects. Finally, increased production pressure placed on sows bearing large litters may produce health and welfare concerns for the sow. However, possible biological approaches to mitigating health and welfare issues associated with large litters are being implemented. An important mitigation strategy is genetic selection encompassing traits that promote piglet survival, vitality and growth. Sow nutrition and the minimisation of stress during gestation could also contribute to improving outcomes in terms of piglet welfare. Awareness of the possible negative welfare consequences of large litter size in pigs should lead to further active measures being taken to mitigate the mentioned effects. © 2013 Universities Federation for Animal Welfare.

Development of a new welfare assessment protocol for practical application in long-term dog shelters

In many European shelters, dogs may spend many years confined. A poor environment and inappropriate management may lead to a low quality of life. The absence of harmonised European regulatory frameworks defining the minimum requirements for shelter facilities makes the definition of welfare standards for kennelled dogs challenging. Here, a new protocol was developed and tested to help identify the main welfare issues for shelter dogs. Twenty-six indicators were identified including management, resource and animal based measures. Accuracy and interobserver reliability were checked between four assessors. The protocol was applied in 29 shelters (n=1308 dogs) in six European countries. Overall prevalence of poor health conditions was below 10%. Test-retest reliability and validity of the protocol were investigated with encouraging results. A logistic regression was carried out to assess the potential of the protocol as a tool to identify welfare hazards in shelter environments. Inappropriate space allowance, for example, was found to be a risk factor potentially affecting the animal's cleanliness, skin condition and body condition. The protocol was designed to be concise and easy to implement. Systematic data collection could help identify welfare problems that are likely to arise in certain shelter designs and thus determine improvement in animal care standards.