Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Extracting planetary waves from geomagnetic time series using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Empirical Mode Decomposition is presented as an alternative to traditional analysis methods to decompose geomagnetic time series into spectral components. Important comments on the algorithm and its variations will be given. Using this technique, planetary wave modes of 5-, 10-, and 16-day mean periods can be extracted from magnetic field components of three different stations in Germany. In a second step, the amplitude modulation functions of these wave modes can be shown to contain significant contribution from solar cycle variation through correlation with smoothed sunspot numbers. Additionally, the data indicate connections with geomagnetic jerk occurrences, supported by a second set of data providing reconstructed near-Earth magnetic field for 150 years. Usually attributed to internal dynamo processes within the Earth's outer core, the question of who is impacting whom will be briefly discussed here.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Optimized hash for network path encoding with minimized false positives

The Bloom filter is a space efficient randomized data structure for representing a set and supporting membership queries. Bloom filters intrinsically allow false positives. However, the space savings they offer outweigh the disadvantage if the false positive rates are kept sufficiently low. Inspired by the recent application of the Bloom filter in a novel multicast forwarding fabric, this paper proposes a variant of the Bloom filter, the optihash. The optihash introduces an optimization for the false positive rate at the stage of Bloom filter formation using the same amount of space at the cost of slightly more processing than the classic Bloom filter. Often Bloom filters are used in situations where a fixed amount of space is a primary constraint. We present the optihash as a good alternative to Bloom filters since the amount of space is the same and the improvements in false positives can justify the additional processing. Specifically, we show via simulations and numerical analysis that using the optihash the false positives occurrences can be reduced and controlled at a cost of small additional processing. The simulations are carried out for in-packet forwarding. In this framework, the Bloom filter is used as a compact link/route identifier and it is placed in the packet header to encode the route. At each node, the Bloom filter is queried for membership in order to make forwarding decisions. A false positive in the forwarding decision is translated into packets forwarded along an unintended outgoing link. By using the optihash, false positives can be reduced. The optimization processing is carried out in an entity termed the Topology Manger which is part of the control plane of the multicast forwarding fabric. This processing is only carried out on a per-session basis, not for every packet. The aim of this paper is to present the optihash and evaluate its false positive performances via simulations in order to measure the influence of different parameters on the false positive rate. The false positive rate for the optihash is then compared with the false positive probability of the classic Bloom filter.

Constructing risk across timescales and trajectories: Gay men's stories of sexual encounters

This paper explores the way risk is constructed in the stories gay men tell of their sexual experiences. It focuses on how tellers use such stories to portray themselves both as rational actors and as legitimate members of their social groups by reconstructing the ‘orderliness’ of sexual encounters. An analysis of a corpus of stories derived from a diary study of gay male sexual behaviour in Hong Kong using current theories of discourse analysis reveals how narrators organize their experiences along two primary vectors of engagement: a sequential vector along which the trajectory of the sexual encounter is presented as a chain of occurrences, each occurrence contingent upon previous ones and warranting subsequent ones, and a hierarchical vector along which processes perceived on longer timescales are portrayed as exerting pressure on the ways processes on shorter timescales unfold. Examining how men portray these vectors in their accounts of risk behaviour can help us better understand both the situatedness of risk behaviour and the ways it is linked to larger social practices, identity projects and community histories

Cool Roofs for improving thermal performance of EU office buildings: an investigation for different climates and building layouts

Cool materials are characterized by having a high solar reflectance r – which is able to reduce heat gains during daytime - and a high thermal emissivity ε that enables them to dissipate the heat absorbed throughout the day during night. Despite the concept of cool roofs - i.e. the application of cool materials to roof surfaces - is well known in US since 1990s, many studies focused on their performance in both residential and commercial sectors under various climatic conditions for US countries, while only a few case studies are analyzed in EU countries. The present work aims at analyzing the thermal benefits due to their application to existing office buildings located in EU countries. Indeed, due to their weight in the existing buildings stock, as well as the very low rate of new buildings construction, the retrofit of office buildings is a topic of great concern worldwide. After an in-depth characterization of the existing buildings stock in the EU, the book gives an insight into roof energy balance due to different technological solutions, showing in which cases and to what extent cool roofs are preferable. A detailed description of the physical properties of cool materials and their availability on the market provides a solid background for the parametric analysis carried out by means of detailed numerical models that aims at evaluating cool roofs performance for various climates and office buildings configurations. With the help of dynamic simulations, the thermal behavior of representative office buildings of the existing EU buildings stock is assessed in terms of thermal comfort and energy needs for air conditioning. The results, which consider several variations of building features that may affect the resulting energy balance, show how cool roofs are an effective strategy for reducing overheating occurrences and thus improving thermal comfort in any climate. On the other hand, potential heating penalties due to a reduction in the incoming heat fluxes through the roof are taken into account, as well as the aging process of cool materials. Finally, an economic analysis of the best performing models shows the boundaries for their economic convenience.

(40)Ar/(39)Ar ages and Sr-Nd-Pb-Os geochemistry of CAMP tholeiites from Western Maranhao basin (NE Brazil)

The Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), emplaced at the Triassic-Jurassic (T-J) boundary (-200 Ma), is among the largest igneous provinces on Earth. The Maranhao basin in NE Brazil is located around 700 km inland and 2000 km from the site of the earliest Pangea disruption. The CAMP tholeiites occur only in the western part of the basin and have been described as low and high-Ti. Here we document the occurrence of two sub-groups among the high-Ti tholeiites in the Western Maranhao basin. The major and trace elements and the Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic ratios define three chemical groups corresponding to the low-Ti (TiO(2)< 1.3 wt.%), high-Ti (TiO(2)-2.0 wt.%) and evolved high-Ti (TiO(2 >)3 wt.%) western Maranhao basin tholeiites (WMBT). The new (40)Ar/(39)Ar plateau ages obtained on plagioclase separates for high-Ti (199.7 +/- 2.4 Ma) and evolved high-Ti WMBT (197.2 +/- 0.5 Ma and 198.2 +/- 0.6 Ma) are indistinguishable and identical to those of previously analyzed low-Ti WMBT (198.5 +/- 0.8 Ma) and to the mean (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of the CAMP (199 +/- 2.4 Ma). We also present the first Re-Os isotopic data for CAMP basalts. The low and high-Ti samples display mantle-like initial ((187)Os/(188)Os)(i) ranging from 0.1267 to 0.1299, while the evolved high-Ti samples are more radiogenic (((187)Os/ (188)Os)(i) up to 0.184) We propose that the high-Ti WMBT were derived from the sub-lithospheric asthenosphere, and contaminated during ascent by interaction with the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). The evolved high-Ti WMBT were derived from the same asthenospheric source but experienced crustal contamination. The chemical characteristics of the low-Ti group can be explained by partial melting of the most fertile portions of the SCLM metasomatized during paleo-subduction. Alternatively, the low-Ti WMBT could be derived from the sub-lithospheric asthenosphere but the resulting melts may have undergone contamination by the SCLM. The occurrences of high-Ti basalts are apparently not restricted to the area of initial continental disruption which may bring into question previous interpretations such as those relating high-Ti CAMP magmatism to the initiation of Atlantic ridge spreading or as the expression of a deep mantle plume. We propose that the CAMP magmatism in the Maranhao basin may be attributed to local hotter mantle conditions due to the combined effects of edge-driven convection and large-scale mantle warming under the Pangea supercontinent. The involvement of a mantle-plume with asthenosphere-like isotopic characteristics cannot be ruled out either as one of the main source components of the WMBT or as a heat supplier. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

Checklist and morphometry of benthic cnidarians from the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, Brazil

The Fernando de Noronha Archipelago (Pernambuco State, Brazil), a national marine park, is formed by 21 islands and islets of volcanic origin. An update of the checklist of the benthic cnidarians from some of the archipelago`s reef environments, as well as a study of their corals and calcified hydroids morphometry, was the major goal of this work. Fieldwork was undertaken in February 2005 and in April 2006 and observations were carried out at 13 stations during snorkeling and/or scuba diving up to 30 m deep. Thirty-four species of cnidarians were recorded, of which 17 are new occurrences for the studied area. When added to the species previously listed in the literature, the total number of benthic cnidarians recorded for the Archipelago increases to 57. Stephanocoenia michelini, a new occurrence of zooxanthellate coral, is worthy of mention, as well as the calcified hydroid Millepora braziliensis. Mussismilia hispida tenuisepta showed several variations among its skeletal characters that surpassed the limits of intraspecific morphological variation when compared to those of Mussismilia hispida.

An illustrated checklist of Bromeliaceae from Parque Estadual do Rio Preto, Minas Gerais, Brazil, with notes on phytogeography and one new species of Cryptanthus

A checklist of the 14 genera and 34 species of Bromeliaceae from the Parque Estadual do Rio Preto in Sao Goncalo do Rio Preto municipality, Minas Gerais state, southeastern Brazil, is presented. The Tillandsioideae was the most diverse subfamily and was found to be concentrated in rocky field areas. Bromelioideae is also a species rich subfamily, but its taxa have shown a preference to forested areas and savannas at lower altitudes. Pitcairnioideae is highlighted by its level of endemism, but has only four species. Cryptanthus micrus, a new species found in this area is described and illustrated. Our cluster analysis indicated that the Rio Preto State Park has a Bromeliaceae flora more similar to that from Pico do Itambe and Grao Mogol State Parks. Taxa like Dyckia glandulosa, Orthophytum itambense and Vriesea medusa, which were previously considered to be endemic to Pico do Itambe, now have their area of occurrence extended to Rio Preto. These new occurrences highlight the importance to create a corridor joining these neighboring reserves to connect populations of narrowly ranged or rare species. In this work we present pictures of 19 species in their habitats within the park, and we hope that these illustrations will help in the identification and conservation of these taxa.

Non-random reef use by fishes at two dominant zones in a tropical, algal-dominated coastal reef

Habitat use and the processes which determine fish distribution were evaluated at the reef flat and reef crest zones of a tropical, algal-dominated reef. Our comparisons indicated significant differences in the majority of the evaluated environmental characteristics between zones. Also, significant differences in the abundances of twelve, from thirteen analyzed species, were observed within and between-sites. According to null models, non-random patterns of species co-occurrences were significant, suggesting that fish guilds in both zones were non-randomly structured. Unexpectedly, structural complexity negatively affected overall species richness, but had a major positive influence on highly site-attached species such as a damselfish. Depth and substrate composition, particularly macroalgae cover, were positive determinants for the fish assemblage structure in the studied reef, prevailing over factors such as structural complexity and live coral cover. Our results are conflicting with other studies carried out in coral-dominated reefs of the Caribbean and Pacific, therefore supporting the idea that the factors which may potentially influence reef fish composition are highly site-dependent and variable.

Characterization of the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols in Amazonia from long-term AERONET monitoring (1993-1995 and 1999-2006)

We present a new climatology of atmospheric aerosols (primarily pyrogenic and biogenic) for the Brazilian tropics on the basis of a high-quality data set of spectral aerosol optical depth and directional sky radiance measurements from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Cimel Sun-sky radiometers at more than 15 sites distributed across the Amazon basin and adjacent Cerrado region. This network is the only long-term project (with a record including observations from more than 11 years at some locations) ever to have provided ground-based remotely-sensed column aerosol properties for this critical region. Distinctive features of the Amazonian area aerosol are presented by partitioning the region into three aerosol regimes: southern Amazonian forest, Cerrado, and northern Amazonian forest. The monitoring sites generally include measurements from the interval 1999-2006, but some sites have measurement records that date back to the initial days of the AERONET program in 1993. Seasonal time series of aerosol optical depth (AOD), angstrom ngstrom exponent, and columnar-averaged microphysical properties of the aerosol derived from sky radiance inversion techniques (single-scattering albedo, volume size distribution, fine mode fraction of AOD, etc.) are described and contrasted for the defined regions. During the wet season, occurrences of mineral dust penetrating deep into the interior were observed.

The Cariris Velhos tectonic event in Northeast Brazil

The Borborema Province in northeastern South America is a typical Brasiliano-Pan-African branching system of Neoproterozoic orogens that forms part of the Western Gondwana assembly. The province is positioned between the Sao Luis-West Africa craton to the north and the Sao Francisco (Congo-Kasai) craton to the south. For this province the main characteristics are (a) its subdivision into five major tectonic domains, bounded mostly by long shear zones, as follows: Medio Coreau, Ceara Central, Rio Grande do Norte, Transversal, and Southern; (b) the alternation of supracrustal belts with reworked basement inliers (Archean nuclei + Paleoproterozoic belts); and (c) the diversity of granitic plutonism, from Neoproterozoic to Early Cambrian ages, that affect supracrustal rocks as well as basement inliers. Recently, orogenic rock assemblages of early Tonian (1000-920 Ma) orogenic evolution have been recognized, which are restricted to the Transversal and Southern domains of the Province. Within the Transversal Zone, the Alto Pajeu terrane locally includes some remnants of oceanic crust along with island arc and continental arc rock assemblages, but the dominant supracrustal rocks are mature and immature pelitic metasedimentary and metavolcaniclastic rocks. Contiguous and parallel to the Alto Pajeu terrane, the Riacho Gravata subterrane consists mainly of low-grade metamorphic successions of metarhythmites, some of which are clearly turbiditic in origin, metaconglomerates, and sporadic marbles, along with interbedded metarhyolitic and metadacitic volcanic or metavolcaniclastic rocks. Both terrane and subterrane are cut by syn-contractional intrusive sheets of dominantly peraluminous high-K calc-alkaline, granititic to granodioritic metaplutonic rocks. The geochemical patterns of both supracrustal and intrusive rocks show similarities with associations of mature continental arc volcano-sedimentary sequences, but some subordinate intra-plate characteristics are also found. In both the Alto Pajeu and Riacho Gravata terranes, TIMS and SHRIMP U-Pb isotopic data from zircons from both metavolcanic and metaplutonic rocks yield ages between 1.0 and 0.92 Ga, which define the time span for an event of orogenic character, the Cariris Velhos event. Less extensive occurrences of rocks of Cariris Velhos age are recognized mainly in the southernmost domains of the Province, as for example in the Polo Redondo-Maranco terrane, where arc-affinity migmatite-granitic and meta-volcano-sedimentary rocks show U-Pb ages (SHRIMP data) around 0.98-0.97 Ga. For all these domains, Sm-Nd data exhibit Tom model ages between 1.9 and 1.1 Ga with corresponding slightly negative to slightly positive epsilon(Nd)(t) values. These domains, along with the Borborema Province as a whole, were significantly affected by tectonic and magmatic events of the Brasiliano Cycle (0.7-0.5 Ga), so that it is possible that there are some other early Tonian rock assemblages which were completely masked and hidden by these later Brasiliano events. Cariris Velhos processes are younger than the majority of orogenic systems at the end of Mesoproterozoic Era and beginning of Neoproterozoic throughout the world, e.g. Irumide belt, Kibaride belt and Namaqua-Natal belt, and considerably younger than those of the youngest orogenic process (Ottawan) in the Grenvillian System. Therefore, they were probably not associated with the proposed assembly of Rodinia. We suggest, instead, that Cariris Velhos magmatism and tectonism could have been related to a continental margin magmatic arc, with possible back-arc associations, and that this margin may have been a short-lived (<100 m.y.) leading edge of the newly assembled Rodinia supercontinent. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A review of the tectonic evolution of the Sunsas belt, SW Amazonian Craton

The Sunsas-Aguapei province (1.20-0.95 Ga), SW Amazonian Craton, is a key area to study the heterogeneous effects of collisional events with Laurentia, which shows evidence of the Grenvillian and Sunsas orogens. The Sunsas orogen, characterized by an allochthonous collisional-type belt (1.11-1.00 Ga), is the youngest and southwestern most of the events recorded along the cratonic fringe. Its evolution occurred after a period of long quiescence and erosion of the already cratonized provinces (>1.30 Ga), that led to sedimentation of the Sunsas and Vibosi groups in a passive margin setting. The passive margin stage was roughly contemporary with intraplate tectonics that produced the Nova Brasilandia proto-oceanic basin (<1.21 Ga), the reactivation of the Ji-Parana shear zone network (1.18-1.12 Ga) and a system of aborted rifts that evolved to the Huanchaca-Aguapei basin (1.17-1.15 Ga). The Sunsas belt is comprised by the metamorphosed Sunsas and Vibosi sequences, the Rincon del Tigre mafic-ultramafic sill and granitic intrusive suites. The latter rocks yield epsilon(Nd(t)) signatures (-0.5 to -4.5) and geochemistry (S,1, A-types) suggesting their origin associated with a continental arc setting. The Sunsas belt evolution is marked by ""tectonic fronts"" with sinistral offsets that was active from c. 1.08 to 1.05 Ga, along the southern edge of the Paragua microcontinent where K/Ar ages (1.27-1.34 Ga) and the Huanchaca-Aguapei flat-lying cover attest to the earliest tectonic stability at the time of the orogen. The Sunsas dynamics is coeval with inboard crustal shortening, transpression and magmatism in the Nova Brasilandia belt (1.13-1.00 Ga). Conversely, the Aguapei aulacogen (0.96-0.91 Ga) and nearby shear zones (0.93-0.91 Ga) are the late tectonic offshoots over the cratonic margin. The post-tectonic to anorogenic stages took place after ca. 1.00 Ga, evidenced by the occurrences of intra-plate A-type granites, pegmatites, mafic dikes and sills, as well as of graben basins. Integrated interpretation of the available data related to the Sunsas orogen supports the idea that the main nucleus of Rodinia incorporated the terrains forming the SW corner of Amazonia and most of the Grenvillian margin, as a result of two independent collisional events, as indicated in the Amazon region by the Ji-Parana shear zone event and the Sunsas belt, respectively. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mineralogical and microthermometric studies and structural aspects of imperial topaz mineralization in Antonio Pereira, Ouro Preto District (Minas Gerais) - Brazil

The occurrences of imperial topaz in the Antonio Pereira mine, Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, are associated with the metamorphic carbonate rocks of the Minas Supergroup. The crystals have densities varying from 3.46 to 3.58. The parameters of the unitary cells obtained were: 4.658 to 4.663 angstrom (ao), 8.823 to 8.832 angstrom (b(o)), 8.382 to 8.389 angstrom (c(o)), and 344.65 to 345.46 angstrom 3 (V). The refraction indices presented the following variations: 1.622 to 1.630 (nX), 1.624 to 1.632 (nY), 1.633 to 1.640 (nZ), and 0.008 to 0.011 (B). These properties are coherent with the low fluorine contents obtained (16,48%/17,05wt%). Infrared spectroscopy and microthermometry showed that the fluid inclusions, which represent the mineralizing fluids, are formed by H(2)O (with Ca(2+), Mg(2+) and Na(+)), and CO(2) +/- CH(4). The minimal trapping T-P conditions of 290/320 degrees C and 2,349/2,497bar were obtained for the primary fluid inclusions. The pseudo-secondary fluid inclusions were trapped at conditions of lower temperatures and variable pressures, during the deformation process under local alternating states of stress. The microthermometric studies, the structural analysis and the fluorine contents suggest that the mineralized veins were formed from hydrothermal fluids originated during the Brasiliano tectono-metamorphic event.