884 resultados para Prediction error method


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PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.

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The increasing demand for fatty acid-free lecithin required modifications in existing purification methods. In this technical note we describe a purification procedure with the following steps: a) homogenization and extraction of yolks obtained from fresh eggs with acetone, b) solubilization with ethanol and solvent elimination and c) repeated solubilization/precipitation with petroleum ether/acetone. This crude extract was chromatographed on neutral alumina, which was exhaustively washed with chloroform before elution with chloroform:methanol, allowing the sequential separation of fatty acids and lecithin. Chromatographic behavior and mass spectra of the product are presented. This fast procedure yields fatty acid-free lecithin at a competitive cost.

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A simple and fast capillary zone electrophoresis (CZE) method has been developed and validated for quantification of a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) nevirapine, in pharmaceuticals. The analysis was optimized using 10 mmol L-1 sodium phosphate buffer pH 2.5, +25 kV applied voltage, hydrodynamic injection 0.5 psi for 5 s and direct UV detection at 200 µm. Diazepam (50.0 µg mL-1) was used as internal standard. Under these conditions, nevirapine was analyzed in approximately less than 2.5 min. The analytical curve presented a coefficient of correlation of 0.9994. Limits of detection and quantification were 1.4 µg mL-1 and 4.3 µg mL-1, respectively. Intra- and inter-day precision expressed as relative standard deviations were 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively and the mean recovery was 100.81%. The active pharmaceutical ingredient was subjected to hydrolysis (acid, basic and neutral) and oxidative stress conditions. No interference of degradation products and tablet excipients were observed. This method showed to be rapid, simple, precise, accurate and economical for determination of nevirapine in pharmaceuticals and it is suitable for routine quality control analysis since CE offers benefits in terms of quicker method development and significantly reduced operating costs.

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The aim of this study was to validate the intake of carotenoids, fruits and vegetables estimated by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (FFQA) using the method of triads. Blood samples were collected from 80 elementary school adolescents to assess serum levels of β-carotene. Partial correlation coefficients (r) were calculated between an estimated intake of carotenoids, fruits and vegetables and the serum levels of β-carotene. Validity coefficients were calculated using the method of triads. With the exception of carotenoids, partial r from the food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) were greater than those of the 24-hour recall (24hR). The fruit/vegetable group showed the highest partial r for the FFQ (r = 0.235) and the 24hR (r = 0.137). The highest validity coefficient was obtained for the vegetable group, as assessed by the FFQ (r = 0.873). On average, the validity coefficient values for the FFQ were greater than those obtained for the 24hR or the β-carotene serum levels. The FFQA is an accurate tool for estimating the intake of carotenoids, fruits and vegetables in this population group.

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This study aimed to describe the behavior of oviposition traps for Aedes aegypti over time, to compare it with the larval survey and to investigate the association with climatic variables. It was conducted in São José do Rio Preto city, São Paulo. Daily climatic data and fortnightly measurements for oviposition traps and larval infestation were collected from October 2003 to September 2004. Three different periods were identified in the behavior of oviposition traps' positivity and mean number of eggs: increase, plateau and decrease in values. These measurements followed the variation of climatic data from the first and third periods. High correlation was obtained between the positivity and the mean number of eggs. The oviposition traps showed higher capacity to detect the vector than did larval survey. It was observed that the first (October to December) and third (May to September) periods were considered to be the most suitable to use oviposition traps than larval surveys.

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Principle Mucopolysaccharidosis is an inborn error of metabolism causing glucosaminoglycans tissue storage. Cardiovascular involvement is variable but contributes significantly towards the morbidity and mortality of the patients. Objective To characterise the echocardiographic abnormalities in children and adolescents with different types of mucopolysaccharidosis. Method Echocardiograms and medical records of 28 patients aged 2–14 years, seen from 2003 to 2005, were revised. At that time, the enzymatic replacement therapy was still not available in our institution.Results Echocardiographic alterations were detected in 26 patients (93 per cent), whereas 16 (57 per cent) had abnormal auscultation, and only 6 (21 per cent) presented with cardiovascular complaint. Mitral valve thickening with dysfunction (regurgitation, stenosis, or double lesion) was diagnosed in 60.8 per cent, left ventricular hypertrophy in 43 per cent and aortic valve thickening with regurgitation in 35.8 per cent of the patients. There was no systolic dysfunction and mild left diastolic dysfunction was shown in 21.5 per cent of the patients. Pulmonary hypertension was present in 36 per cent of the patients, causing the only two deaths recorded. There was a strong association between the accumulation of dermatan sulphate and the presence of mitral valve dysfunction (p = 0.0003), aortic valve dysfunction (p = 0.006), and pulmonary hypertension (p = 0.006). Among individuals with two or more examinations, 82 per cent had a worsening evolution. Conclusions Echocardiographic alterations in children with Mucopolysaccharidosis are frequent and have a progressive character Left valve lesions, ventricular hypertrophy, and pulmonary hypertension were the most common findings and there was an association between the accumulation of dermatan sulphate and cardiovascular involvement. Unlike in adults, pulmonary hypertension was the main cause of death, not left ventricle systolic dysfunction

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A new criterion has been recently proposed combining the topological instability (lambda criterion) and the average electronegativity difference (Delta e) among the elements of an alloy to predict and select new glass-forming compositions. In the present work, this criterion (lambda.Delta e) is applied to the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd ternary systems and its predictability is validated using literature data for both systems and additionally, using own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The compositions with a high lambda.Delta e value found in each ternary system exhibit a very good correlation with the glass-forming ability of different alloys as indicated by their supercooled liquid regions (Delta T(x)) and their critical casting thicknesses. In the case of the Al-La-Ni system, the alloy with the largest lambda.Delta e value, La(56)Al(26.5)Ni(17.5), exhibits the highest glass-forming ability verified for this system. Therefore, the combined lambda.Delta e criterion is a simple and efficient tool to select new glass-forming compositions in Al-Ni-RE systems. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3563099]

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A combination of trajectory sensitivity method and master-slave synchronization was proposed to parameter estimation of nonlinear systems. It was shown that master-slave coupling increases the robustness of the trajectory sensitivity algorithm with respect to the initial guess of parameters. Since synchronization is not a guarantee that the estimation process converges to the correct parameters, a conditional test that guarantees that the new combined methodology estimates the true values of parameters was proposed. This conditional test was successfully applied to Lorenz's and Chua's systems, and the proposed parameter estimation algorithm has shown to be very robust with respect to parameter initial guesses and measurement noise for these examples. Copyright (C) 2009 Elmer P. T. Cari et al.

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In this work, the effects of indenter tip roundness oil the load-depth indentation curves were analyzed using finite element modeling. The tip roundness level was Studied based on the ratio between tip radius and maximum penetration depth (R/h(max)), which varied from 0.02 to 1. The proportional Curvature constant (C), the exponent of depth during loading (alpha), the initial unloading slope (S), the correction factor (beta), the level of piling-up or sinking-in (h(c)/h(max)), and the ratio h(max)/h(f) are shown to be strongly influenced by the ratio R/h(max). The hardness (H) was found to be independent of R/h(max) in the range studied. The Oliver and Pharr method was successful in following the variation of h(c)/h(max) with the ratio R/h(max) through the variation of S with the ratio R/h(max). However, this work confirmed the differences between the hardness values calculated using the Oliver-Pharr method and those obtained directly from finite element calculations; differences which derive from the error in area calculation that Occurs when given combinations of indented material properties are present. The ratio of plastic work to total work (W(p)/W(t)) was found to be independent of the ratio R/h(max), which demonstrates that the methods for the Calculation of mechanical properties based on the *indentation energy are potentially not Susceptible to errors caused by tip roundness.

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This work deals with an improved plane frame formulation whose exact dynamic stiffness matrix (DSM) presents, uniquely, null determinant for the natural frequencies. In comparison with the classical DSM, the formulation herein presented has some major advantages: local mode shapes are preserved in the formulation so that, for any positive frequency, the DSM will never be ill-conditioned; in the absence of poles, it is possible to employ the secant method in order to have a more computationally efficient eigenvalue extraction procedure. Applying the procedure to the more general case of Timoshenko beams, we introduce a new technique, named ""power deflation"", that makes the secant method suitable for the transcendental nonlinear eigenvalue problems based on the improved DSM. In order to avoid overflow occurrences that can hinder the secant method iterations, limiting frequencies are formulated, with scaling also applied to the eigenvalue problem. Comparisons with results available in the literature demonstrate the strength of the proposed method. Computational efficiency is compared with solutions obtained both by FEM and by the Wittrick-Williams algorithm.

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The effects of chromium or nickel oxide additions on the composition of Portland clinker were investigated by X-ray powder diffraction associated with pattern analysis by the Rietveld method. The co-processing of industrial waste in Portland cement plants is an alternative solution to the problem of final disposal of hazardous waste. Industrial waste containing chromium or nickel is hazardous and is difficult to dispose of. It was observed that in concentrations up to 1% in mass, the chromium or nickel oxide additions do not cause significant alterations in Portland clinker composition. (C) 2008 International Centre for Diffraction Data.

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Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

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Medium density fiberboard (MDF) is an engineered wood product formed by breaking down selected lignin-cellulosic material residuals into fibers, combining it with wax and a resin binder, and then forming panels by applying high temperature and pressure. Because the raw material in the industrial process is ever-changing, the panel industry requires methods for monitoring the composition of their products. The aim of this study was to estimate the ratio of sugarcane (SC) bagasse to Eucalyptus wood in MDF panels using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS) regressions were performed. MDF panels having different bagasse contents were easily distinguished from each other by the PCA of their NIR spectra with clearly different patterns of response. The PLS-R models for SC content of these MDF samples presented a strong coefficient of determination (0.96) between the NIR-predicted and Lab-determined values and a low standard error of prediction (similar to 1.5%) in the cross-validations. A key role of resins (adhesives), cellulose, and lignin for such PLS-R calibrations was shown. PLS-DA model correctly classified ninety-four percent of MDF samples by cross-validations and ninety-eight percent of the panels by independent test set. These NIR-based models can be useful to quickly estimate sugarcane bagasse vs. Eucalyptus wood content ratio in unknown MDF samples and to verify the quality of these engineered wood products in an online process.

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The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

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Introduction. This protocol aims at detecting and quantifying quiescent infections of Colletotrichum musae on bananas. The principle, key advantages, starting plant material, time required and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. The materials required and details of the three steps of the protocol (fruit sampling, fruit ripening and anthracnose lesion quantification) are described. Possible troubleshooting is discussed. Results. The protocol results in the quantification of anthracnose lesions on the fruits, which makes it possible to predict postharvest losses due to anthracnose (peel rot), and also to propose a better management of postharvest fungicide applications.