The political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politiciansperceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters.To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknownand investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politiciansmake too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannotbe fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary tothe conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may,under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study howpolitical rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistentwith a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection.They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economicuncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Voting after the bombing: Can terrorist attacks change the outcome of democratic elections?

Economists have recently turned their attention to the effects of terrorism. One much debated effect of terrorist attacks is its impact on the results of democratic elections. We use the electoral consequences of the terrorist attacks of the 11-M in Madrid to analyze this issue. We consider this particular experiment since the attack took place only three days before the 2004 Congressional Election, which allows the use of credible identification criteria. In particular, we use the advance voting by Spanish residents abroad, who cast their vote before the terrorist attack, to identify the effect of the bombing. We exploit this macabre natural experiment to run a difference-in-differences estimation using data on three consecutive Congressional elections. Our empirical results indicate that a terrorist attack can have a large impact on the outcome of democratic elections.

On equilibria in duopolies with finite strategy spaces

We will call a game a reachable (pure strategy) equilibria game if startingfrom any strategy by any player, by a sequence of best-response moves weare able to reach a (pure strategy) equilibrium. We give a characterizationof all finite strategy space duopolies with reachable equilibria. Wedescribe some applications of the sufficient conditions of the characterization.

Political representation in Switzerland : democratic or plutocratic ?

Les inégalités économiques se traduisent-elles dans des inégalités politiques à travers le processus de représentation électorale? Telle est la question centrale de cette thèse qui s'attache, par ailleurs, à investiguer les mécanismes qui tendent à produire une représentation biaisée des préférences politiques des citoyens en fonction de leur statut économique. Focalisé sur le cas de la Suisse et faisant usage des données de l'enquête postélectorale Selects de 2007, ce travail démontre que sur les rares sujets qui divisent les citoyens selon des clivages économiques - la redistribution des richesses et la sécurité sociale en particulier - les élus à l'Assemblée fédérale ont des préférences qui reflètent mieux les opinions des citoyens les plus riches. Cette sous-représentation des opinions des citoyens modestes et de ceux faisant partie du centre de la distribution des revenus peut en partie être attribuée à des différences dans les taux de participation et de connaissance politiques entre ces groupes de citoyens. La thèse met également en évidence le rôle joué par la représentation descriptive - autrement dit, la similitude en termes de statut économique entre les représentants et les représentés - dans la représentation des opinions et intérêts des citoyens. Par ailleurs, la structure du système partisan en Suisse ne reflétant pas la multidimensionnalité des préférences politiques des citoyens, les électeurs ne parviennent pas à traduire la complexité de leurs préférences politiques dans un choix de vote, ce qui, dans la configuration actuelle des forces politiques, tend à favoriser l'élection de représentants aux opinions proches de la droite sur les questions économiques. Enfin, une analyse de la représentation politique au niveau cantonal tend à soutenir la thèse selon laquelle le manque de régulation en matière de financement des partis en Suisse pourrait partiellement expliquer les inégalités dans la représentation des opinions politiques des citoyens aux revenus distincts. - Do economic inequalities translate into political inequalities through electoral representation? This is the central research question of this thesis, which also investigates the mechanisms that lead to potential economically based inequalities in the representation of citizens' policy preferences. Focusing on the case of Switzerland and making use of data provided by the post- electoral survey Selects 2007, this research demonstrates that regarding the rare policy domains in which the preferences of citizens are clearly linked to economic cleavages - redistribution and social security in particular - members of the Federal Assembly have policy preferences that best reflect the policy preferences of richer citizens. The under-representation of the opinions of relatively poor citizens and of those being the in the middle of the income distribution can be to some extent be explained by differences in political participation and political information across income groups. The thesis also puts forward the role played by descriptive representation - the similarity between representatives and represented in terms of their socioeconomic status - for the representation of citizens' preferences and interests. In addition, the structure of the party system in Switzerland does not reflect the multidimensionality of policy preferences among citizens who, as a result, have a hard time translating their complex preferences into a vote choice. Given the configuration of political actors, this tends to favour the election of representatives from the right who do not represent the preferences of their voters on economic issues. Finally, an analysis of representation at the cantonal level tends to confirm that the lack of party finance regulations in Switzerland may partially explain inequalities in the representation of citizens with different levels of income.

Strategy communication and measurement systems

Organizations often face the challenge of communicating their strategiesto local decision makers. The difficulty presents itself in finding away to measure performance wich meaningfully conveys how to implement theorganization's strategy at local levels. I show that organizations solvethis communication problem by combining performance measures in such away that performance gains come closest to mimicking value-added asdefined by the organization's strategy. I further show how organizationsrebalance performance measures in response to changes in their strategies.Applications to the design of performance metrics, gaming, and divisionalperformance evaluation are considered. The paper also suggests severalempirical ways to evaluate the practical importance of the communicationrole of measurement systems.

O Dualismo Cultural: os Luso-Caboverdianos entre a Escola a Família e a Comunidade (Estudo de Caso)

A tese que ora findamos visa a obtenção do grau de doutora em Educação, na Especialidade de Desenvolvimento Curricular, pelo Departamento do Currículo e Tecnologia Educativa, do Instituto de Educação e Psicologia, da Universidade do Minho. Intitulado o dualismo cultural: os luso-caboverdianos entre a escola, a família e a comunidade, o presente estudo centra-se numa abordagem crítica da escolaridade básica obrigatória, no qual procurámos compreender e explicar as condições de realização deste nível de ensino pelos jovens de ascendência caboverdiana, nascidos em Portugal, na qualidade de sujeitos biculturais em consequência da simbiose das culturas caboverdeana e portuguesa. Isto para concluirmos se na oferta do serviço educativo e de formação estão acautelados os seus direitos de cidadania e de participação na sociedade em que se encontram inseridos e a que pertencem de facto. Nesta investigação foi fundamental analisar a oferta de educação básica, entender as representações de alunos lusocaboverdeanos acerca da sua identidade cultural e das suas percepções sobre a formação académica que recebem; reconhecer representações e percepções de professores acerca da realidade educativa portuguesa, o enquadramento da multiculturalidade e a docência em turmas com alunos luso-caboverdianos, e compreender as percepções de pais e encarregados da educação caboverdeanos acerca da realidade educativa portuguesa e do enquadramento dos seus filhos na escola, para perceber se o insucesso educativo dos luso-caboverdeanos está relacionado com a condição de aluno “culturalmente diferente” ou se tem a sua origem na escola e no currículo da escolaridade obrigatória e, assim, contribuir com subsídios teóricos e práticos para o aprofundamento da problemática da multiculturalidade em Portugal, com vista à sua potenciação e normalização no sistema educativo. Estando perante uma sociedade de formação multicultural reafirmada com a colonização, justifica-se, em Portugal, a preocupação com a temática da diversidade cultural nas políticas educativas, resultante da consciencialização da manifestação da diversidade cultural no contexto escolar, podendo a sua omissão constituir num factor de insucesso educativo. Por isso, integramos nesta investigação matérias como: uma conceptualização do multiculturalismo com vista a questionar e clarificar os conceitos e as perspectivas inerentes a este fenómeno. Uma tentativa de desocultar para perceber o conteúdo simbólico e os porquês das políticas de integração das minorias etnicoculturais que, ao que parece, nos tempos que correm, por quase toda a parte, se converteram numa prioridade absoluta e inadiável. Estabelecemos uma ponte entre a génese do campo curricular e a construção de um currículo multi e/ou intercultural, merecendo devida atenção as tendências que dominam as discussões e a produção científica actuais nestes domínios. Problematizámos o currículo e identidade na escolaridade obrigatória nas dimensões inserção sociocultural, promoção da igualdade de sucesso educativo e inclusão dos sujeitos e o currículo e a educação para o exercício da cidadania numa escola que se quer plural. Neste último debatemos o conteúdo político da educação para a cidadania, as políticas educativas e curriculares e a escolaridade básica obrigatória como uma proposta que continua em aberto, por isso, passível de adequação às necessidades de uma educação da e para a diversidade. Procurámos fazer uma análise das políticas de integração socioeducativa da diversidade cultural, com destaque para o quadro legal que regula a integração das minorias étnicas na escola básica portuguesa, com particular incidência sobre as crianças pertencentes à comunidade caboverdeana nascidas em território português, procurando concluir acerca da existência, ou não, de posições e opções de políticas educativas concretas face à necessidade de dar prosseguimento à educação multicultural neste contexto. Tratou-se de uma investigação qualitativa holística, que permitiu desenvolver compreensões profundas dos fenómenos a partir das evidências reunidas, do estudo das representações dos sujeitos sobre quem recaem os resultados da investigação, mas também de sujeitos que, assim como o meio envolvente, estabelecem uma relação indirecta com os mesmos resultados. Circunscrito a um estudo de caso, a reflexão e a partilha de conhecimento e informações possibilitou desenvolver uma compreensão sobre a problemática estudada. Dos resultados obtidos, destacámos aqui que, em Portugal, apesar da absorvência da diversidade cultural nas política educativa, não se concretizou, ainda, uma proposta que, na prática, crie a reciprocidade entre as questões etnicoculturais e o sucesso e/ou insucesso educativos das minorias em educação com ganhos decisivos no combate ao insucesso e ao abandono escolar. Continua-se a desenvolver uma educação igualitarista monocultural pela via da homogeneização curricular, assente na noção de que povos e grupos podem estar em condições de igualdade se reunidos numa cultura comum. Aparentemente sob pilares democráticos, esta educação multicultural segue a concepção liberal associando essencialismo, universalismo e igualitarismo, resultando num propósito civilizacional excludente das minorias etnicoculturais. As conclusões chegadas permitem-nos defender a dessacralização do currículo nacional comum e uniforme e a defesa de uma proposta curricular baseada numa cultura científica global e necessária, de acordo com as faixas etárias e níveis de ensino, com campos de integração obrigatória de conteúdos territorializados alicerçados no interculturalismo como estratégia promotora da interacção crítica e solidária entre diferentes sujeitos e grupos culturais, permissiva da construção de identidades próprias e da confissão da diferença cultural, associada ao intraculturalismo como uma via permeabilizadora da educação democrática como garante da cidadania plena a todos os indivíduos, como condição fundamental para o estabelecimento das condições de igualdade e de garantia de sucesso em educação.

National Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change - 2008 - 2012

The archipelago of Cape Verde is made up of ten islands and nine islets and is located between latitudes 14º 28' N and 17º 12' N and longitudes 22º 40' W and 25º 22' W. It is located approximately 500 km from the Senegal coast in West Africa (Figure 1). The islands are divided into two groups: Windward and Leeward. The Windward group is composed of the islands of Santo Antão, São Vicente, Santa Luzia, São Nicolau, Sal and Boavista; and the Leeward group is composed of the islands Maio, Santiago, Fogo and Brava. The archipelago has a total land surface of 4,033 km2 and an Economic Exclusive Zone (ZEE) that extends for approximately 734,000 km2. In general, the relief is very steep, culminating with high elevations (e.g. 2,829 m on Fogo and 1,979 m on Santo Antão). The surface area, geophysical configuration and geology vary greatly from one island to the next. Cape Verde, due to its geomorphology, has a dense and complex hydrographical network. However, there are no permanent water courses and temporary water courses run only during the rainy season. These temporary water courses drain quickly towards the main watersheds, where, unless captured by artificial means, continue rapidly to lower areas and to the sea. This applies equally to the flatter islands. The largest watershed is Rabil with an area of 199.2 km2. The watershed areas on other islands extend over less than 70 km2. Cape Verde is both a least developed country (LDC) and a small island development state (SIDS). In 2002, the population of Cape Verde was estimated at approximately 451,000, of whom 52% were women and 48% men. The population was growing at an average 2.4% per year, and the urban population was estimated at 53.7 %. Over the past 15 years, the Government has implemented a successful development strategy, leading to a sustained economic growth anchored on development of the private sector and the integration of Cape Verde into the world economy. During this period, the tertiary sector has become increasingly important, with strong growth in the tourism, transport, banking and trade sectors. Overall, the quality of life indicators show substantial improvements in almost all areas: housing conditions, access to drinking water and sanitation, use of modern energy in both lighting and cooking, access to health services and education. Despite these overall socio-economic successes, the primary sector has witnessed limited progress. Weak performance in the primary sector has had a severe negative impact on the incomes and poverty risks faced by rural workers1. Moreover, relative poverty has increased significantly during the past decade. The poverty profile shows that: (i) extreme poverty is mostly found in rural areas, although it has also increased in urban areas; (ii) poverty is more likely to occur when the head of the household is a woman; (iii) poverty increases with family size; (iv) education significantly affects poverty; (v) the predominantly agricultural islands of Santo Antão and Fogo have the highest poverty rates; (vi) unemployment affects the poor more than the nonpoor; (vii) agriculture and fisheries workers are more likely to be poor than those in other sectors. Therefore, the fight against poverty and income inequalities remains one of the greatest challenges for Cape Verde authorities. The various governments of Cape Verde over the last decade have demonstrated a commitment to improving governance, notably by encouraging a democratic culture that guarantees stability and democratic changes without conflicts. This democratic governance offers a space for a wider participation of citizens in public management and consolidates social cohesion. However, there are some remaining challenges related to democratic governance and the gains must be systematically monitored. Finally, it is worth emphasizing that the country’s insularity has stimulated a movement to decentralized governance, although social inequalities and contrasts from one island to the next constitute, at the same time, challenges and opportunities.

Iowa’s Drug Control Strategy, November 1, 2007

The attached annual report is submitted in satisfaction of Chapter 80E.1 of the Code of Iowa which directs the Drug Policy Coordinator to monitor and coordinate all drug prevention, enforcement and treatment activities in the state. Further, it requires the Coordinator to submit an annual report to the Governor and Legislature concerning the activities and programs of the Coordinator, the Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy and all other state departments with drug enforcement, substance abuse treatment, and prevention programs. Chapter 80E.2 establishes the Drug Policy Advisory Council (DPAC), chaired by the Coordinator, and consisting of a prosecuting attorney, substance abuse treatment specialists, law enforcement officers, a prevention specialist, a judge and representatives from the departments of corrections, education, public health, human services, public safety and human rights. This report and strategy were in developed in consultation with the DPAC.

Livestrong Democratic Presidental Candidate Cancer Forum, August 27, 2007

Speech by Governor Culver.

Iowa's Drug Control Strategy, 2009

The 2009 Iowa Drug Control Strategy is the annual report and Drug Control Strategy for the State of Iowa, produced in accordance with Iowa law, by the Governor's Office of Drug Control Policy, in cooperation with the Drug Policy Advisory Council.

Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.