Social Policy Preferences and Party Choice in the 2011 Swiss Elections

To what extent do social policy preferences explain party choice? This question has received little attention over the past years, because the bulk of the literature has argued that electoral choice is increasingly shaped by identity-based attitudes, rather than by preferences for economic-distributive social policies. We argue that in the wake of this debate, the significance of social policy preferences for electoral choice has been underestimated, because most contributions neglect social policy debates that are specific to post-industrial societies. In particular, they merely focus on income redistribution, while neglecting distributive conflicts around social investment. The Selects 2011 data allows investigating this crucial distinction for Switzerland. Our empirical analyses confirm that it is pivotal to take the pluridimensionality of distributive conflicts seriously: when looking at preferences for social investment rather than income redistribution, we find that social policy preferences are significant explanatory factors for the choice of the five major Swiss political parties.

Report of Recommendations to the Governor's Office of Drug Control Policy, June 30, 2002

State Agency Audit Report

Tools & Trends, Winter 2003/2004

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Tools & Trends, Spring 2004

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Tools in pharmacovigilance in psychiatry: therapeutic drug monitoring, pharmacogenetic tests and drug-drug interactions databases

SUMMARYIn order to increase drug safety we must better understand how medication interacts with the body of our patients and this knowledge should be made easily available for the clinicians prescribing the medication. This thesis contributes to how the knowledge of some drug properties can increase and how to make information readily accessible for the medical professionals. Furthermore it investigates the use of Therapeutic drug monitoring, drug interaction databases and pharmacogenetic tests in pharmacovigilance.Two pharmacogenetic studies in the naturalistic setting of psychiatric in-patients clinics have been performed; one with the antidepressant mirtazapine, the other with the antipsychotic clozapine. Forty-five depressed patients have been treated with mirtazapine and were followed for 8 weeks. The therapeutic effect was as seen in other previous studies. Enantioselective analyses could confirm an influence of age, gender and smoking in the pharmacokinetics of mirtazapine; it showed a significant influence of the CYP2D6 genotype on the antidepressant effective S-enantiomer, and for the first time an influence of the CYP2B6 genotype on the plasma concentrations of the 8-OH metabolite was found. The CYP2B6*/*6 genotype was associated to better treatment response. A detailed hypothesis of the metabolic pathways of mirtazapine is proposed. In the second pharmacogenetic study, analyses of 75 schizophrenic patients treated with clozapine showed the influence of CYP450 and ABCB1 genotypes on its pharmacokinetics. For the first time we could demonstrate an in vivo effect of the CYP2C19 genotype and an influence of P-glycoprotein on the plasma concentrations of clozapine. Further we confirmed in vivo the prominent role of CYP1A2 in the metabolism of clozapine.Identifying risk factors for the occurrence of serious adverse drug reactions (SADR) would allow a more individualized and safer drug therapy. SADR are rare events and therefore difficult to study. We tested the feasibility of a nested matched case-control study to examine the influence of high drug plasma levels and CYP2D6 genotypes on the risk to experience an SADR. In our sample we compared 62 SADR cases with 82 controls; both groups were psychiatric patients from the in-patient clinic Königsfelden. Drug plasma levels of >120% of the upper recommended references could be identified as a risk factor with a statistically significant odds ratio of 3.5, a similar trend could be seen for CYP2D6 poor metaboliser. Although a matched case-control design seems a valid method, 100% matching is not easy to perform in a relative small cohort of one in-patient clinic. However, a nested case-control study is feasible.On the base of the experience gained in the AMSP+ study and the fact that we have today only sparse data indicating that routine drug plasma concentration monitoring and/or pharmacogenetic testing in psychiatry are justified to minimize the risk for ADR, we developed a test algorithm named "TDM plus" (TDM plus interaction checks plus pharmacogenetic testing).Pharmacovigilance programs such as the AMSP project (AMSP = Arzneimittelsicherheit in der Psychiatrie) survey psychiatric in-patients in order to collect SADR and to detect new safety signals. Case reports of such SADR are, although anecdotal, valuable to illustrate rare clinical events and sometimes confirm theoretical assumptions of e.g. drug interactions. Seven pharmacovigilance case reports are summarized in this thesis.To provide clinicians with meaningful information on the risk of drug combinations, during the course of this thesis the internet based drug interaction program mediQ.ch (in German) has been developed. Risk estimation is based on published clinical and pharmacological information of single drugs and alimentary products, including adverse drug reaction profiles. Information on risk factors such as renal and hepatic insufficiency and specific genotypes are given. More than 20'000 drug pairs have been described in detail. Over 2000 substances with their metabolic and transport pathways are included and all information is referenced with links to the published scientific literature or other information sources. Medical professionals of more than 100 hospitals and 300 individual practitioners do consult mediQ.ch regularly. Validations with comparisons to other drug interaction programs show good results.Finally, therapeutic drug monitoring, drug interaction programs and pharmacogenetic tests are helpful tools in pharmacovigilance and should, in absence of sufficient routine tests supporting data, be used as proposed in our TDM plus algorithm.RESUMEPour améliorer la sécurité d'emploi des médicaments il est important de mieux comprendre leurs interactions dans le corps des patients. Ensuite le clinicien qui prescrit une pharmacothérapie doit avoir un accès simple à ces informations. Entre autres, cette thèse contribue à mieux connaître les caractéristiques pharmacocinétiques de deux médicaments. Elle examine aussi l'utilisation de trois outils en pharmacovigilance : le monitorage thérapeutique des taux plasmatiques des médicaments (« therapeutic drug monitoring »), un programme informatisé d'estimation du risque de combinaisons médicamenteuses, et enfin des tests pharmacogénétiques.Deux études cliniques pharmacogénétiques ont été conduites dans le cadre habituel de clinique psychiatrique : l'une avec la mirtazapine (antidépresseur), l'autre avec la clozapine (antipsychotique). On a traité 45 patients dépressifs avec de la mirtazapine pendant 8 semaines. L'effet thérapeutique était semblable à celui des études précédentes. Nous avons confirmé l'influence de l'âge et du sexe sur la pharmacocinétique de la mirtazapine et la différence dans les concentrations plasmatiques entre fumeurs et non-fumeurs. Au moyen d'analyses énantiomères sélectives, nous avons pu montrer une influence significative du génotype CYP2D6 sur l'énantiomère S+, principalement responsable de l'effet antidépresseur. Pour la première fois, nous avons trouvé une influence du génotype CYP2B6 sur les taux plasmatiques de la 8-OH-mirtazapine. Par ailleurs, le génotype CYP2B6*6/*6 était associé à une meilleure réponse thérapeutique. Une hypothèse sur les voies métaboliques détaillées de la mirtazapine est proposée. Dans la deuxième étude, 75 patients schizophrènes traités avec de la clozapine ont été examinés pour étudier l'influence des génotypes des iso-enzymes CYP450 et de la protéine de transport ABCB1 sur la pharmacocinétique de cet antipsychotique. Pour la première fois, on a montré in vivo un effet des génotypes CYP2C19 et ABCB1 sur les taux plasmatiques de la clozapine. L'importance du CYP1A2 dans le métabolisme de la clozapine a été confirmée.L'identification de facteurs de risques dans la survenue d'effets secondaire graves permettrait une thérapie plus individualisée et plus sûre. Les effets secondaires graves sont rares. Dans une étude de faisabilité (« nested matched case-control design » = étude avec appariement) nous avons comparé des patients avec effets secondaires graves à des patients-contrôles prenant le même type de médicaments mais sans effets secondaires graves. Des taux plasmatiques supérieurs à 120% de la valeur de référence haute sont associés à un risque avec « odds ratio » significatif de 3.5. Une tendance similaire est apparue pour le génotype du CYP2D6. Le « nested matched case-control design » semble une méthode valide qui présente cependant une difficulté : trouver des patients-contrôles dans le cadre d'une seule clinique psychiatrique. Par contre la conduite d'une « nested case-control study » sans appariement est recommandable.Sur la base de notre expérience de l'étude AMSP+ et le fait que nous disposons que de peux de données justifiant des monitorings de taux plasmatiques et/ou de tests pharmacogénétiques de routine, nous avons développé un test algorithme nommé « TDMplus » (TDM + vérification d'interactions médicamenteuses + tests pharmacogénétique).Des programmes de pharmacovigilances comme celui de l'AMSP (Arzneimittelsicherheit in der Psychiatrie = pharmacovigilance en psychiatrie) collectent les effets secondaires graves chez les patients psychiatriques hospitalisés pour identifier des signaux d'alertes. La publication de certains de ces cas même anecdotiques est précieuse. Elle décrit des événements rares et quelques fois une hypothèse sur le potentiel d'une interaction médicamenteuse peut ainsi être confirmée. Sept publications de cas sont résumées ici.Dans le cadre de cette thèse, on a développé un programme informatisé sur internet (en allemand) - mediQ.ch - pour estimer le potentiel de risques d'une interaction médicamenteuse afin d'offrir en ligne ces informations utiles aux cliniciens. Les estimations de risques sont fondées sur des informations cliniques (y compris les profils d'effets secondaires) et pharmacologiques pour chaque médicament ou substance combinés. Le programme donne aussi des informations sur les facteurs de risques comme l'insuffisance rénale et hépatique et certains génotypes. Actuellement il décrit en détail les interactions potentielles de plus de 20'000 paires de médicaments, et celles de 2000 substances actives avec leurs voies de métabolisation et de transport. Chaque information mentionne sa source d'origine; un lien hypertexte permet d'y accéder. Le programme mediQ.ch est régulièrement consulté par les cliniciens de 100 hôpitaux et par 300 praticiens indépendants. Les premières validations et comparaisons avec d'autres programmes sur les interactions médicamenteuses montrent de bons résultats.En conclusion : le monitorage thérapeutique des médicaments, les programmes informatisés contenant l'information sur le potentiel d'interaction médicamenteuse et les tests pharmacogénétiques sont de précieux outils en pharmacovigilance. Nous proposons de les utiliser en respectant l'algorithme « TDM plus » que nous avons développé.

Decision-support tools to manage drug incompatibilities: evaluation by nurses

Introduction Preventing drug incompatibilities has a high impact onthe safety of drug therapy. Although there are no internationalguidelines to manage drug incompatibilities, different decision-supporttools such as handbooks, cross-tables and databases are available.In a previous study, two decision-support tools have been pre-selectedby pharmacists as fitting nurses' needs on the wards1. The objective ofthis study was to have these both tools evaluated by nurses todetermine which would be the most suitable for their daily practice.Materials & Methods Evaluated tools were:1. Cross-table of drug pairs (http://files.chuv.ch/internet-docs/pha/medicaments/pha_phatab_compatibilitessip.pdf)2. Colour-table (a colour for each drug according to the pH: red =acid; blue = basic; yellow = neutral; black = to be infused alone)2Tools were assessed by 48 nurses in 5 units (PICU, adult andgeriatric intensive care, surgery, onco-hematology) using a standardizedform1. The scientific accuracy of the tools was evaluated bydetermining the compatibility of five drugs pairs (rate of correctanswers according to the Trissel's Handbook on Injectable Drugs,chi-square test). Their ergonomics, design, reliability and applicabilitywere estimated using visual analogue scales (VAS 0-10; 0 =null, 10 = excellent). Results are expressed as the median and interquartilerange (IQR) for 25% and 75% (Wilcoxon rank sum test).Results The rate of correct answers was above 90% for both tools(cross-table 96.2% vs colour-table 92.5%, p[0.05).The ergonomics and the applicability were higher for the crosstable[7.1 (IQR25 4.0, IQR75 8.0) vs 5.0 (IQR25 2.7, IQR75 7.0), p =0.025 resp. 8.3 (IQR25 7.4, IQR75 9.2) vs 7.6 (IQR25 5.9, IQR75 8.8)p = 0.047].The design of the colour-table was judged better [4.6 (IQR25 2.9,IQR75 7.1) vs 7.1 (IQR25 5.4, IQR75 8.4) p = 0.002].No difference was observed in terms of reliability [7.3 (IQR25 6.5,IQR75 8.4) vs 6.7 (IQR25 5.0, IQR758.6) p[0.05].The cross-table was globally preferred by 65% of the nurses (27%colour-table, 8% undetermined) and 68% would like to have thisdecision-support tool available for their daily practice.Discussion & Conclusion Both tools showed the same accuracy toassess drug compatibility. In terms of ergonomics and applicabilitythe cross-table was better than the colour-table, and was preferred bythe nurses for their daily practice. The cross-table will be implementedin our hospital as decision-support tool to help nurses tomanage drug incompatibilities.

A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

Rational Partisan Theory with fiscal policy and an independent central bank

The empirical evidence testing the validity of the rational partisan theory (RPT) has been mixed. In this article, we argue that the inclusion of other macroeconomic policies and the presence of an independent central bank can partly contribute to explain this inconclusiveness. This article expands Alesina s (1987) RPT model to include an extra policy and an independent central bank. With these extensions, the implications of RPT are altered signi ficantly. In particular, when the central bank is more concerned about output than public spending (an assumption made by many papers in this literature), then the direct relationship between in flation and output derived in Alesina (1987) never holds. Keywords: central bank, conservativeness, political uncertainty. JEL Classi fication: E58, E63.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

The Geographical Scope of Industrial Location Determinants: An Alternative Approach

This paper considers the estimation of the geographical scope of industrial location determinants. While previous studies impose strong assumptions on the weighting scheme of the spatial neighbour matrix, we propose a exible parametrisation that allows for di fferent (distance-based) de finitions of neighbourhood and di fferent weights to the neighbours. In particular, we estimate how far can reach indirect marginal e ffects and discuss how to report them. We also show that the use of smooth transition functions provides tools for policy analysis that are not available in the traditional threshold modelling. Keywords: count data models, industrial location, smooth transition functions, threshold models. JEL-Codes: C25, C52, R11, R30.

Disaster Risk, Livelihoods and Natural Barriers, Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction: A case study from northern Pakistan

The goal of this interdisciplinary study is to better understand the land use factors that increase vulnerability of mountain areas in northern Pakistan. The study will identify and analyse the damages and losses caused by the October 2005 earthquake in two areas of the same valley: one "low-risk" watershed with sound natural resources management, the other, "high-risk" in an ecologically degraded watershed. Secondly, the study will examine natural and man-made causes of secondary hazards in the study area, especially landslides; and third it will evaluate the cost of the earthquake damage in the study areas on the livelihoods of local communities and the sub-regional economy. There are few interdisciplinary studies to have correlated community land use practices, resources management, and disaster risk reduction in high-risk mountain areas. By better understanding these linkages, development- humanitarian- and donor agencies focused on disaster reduction can improve their risk reduction programs for mountainous regions.

Tools & Trends, October 2004, Vol. 13, no.3

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