Progress on “Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability”

The task of assessing the likelihood and extent of coastal flooding is hampered by the lack of detailed information on near-shore bathymetry. This is required as an input for coastal inundation models, and in some cases the variability in the bathymetry can impact the prediction of those areas likely to be affected by flooding in a storm. The constant monitoring and data collection that would be required to characterise the near-shore bathymetry over large coastal areas is impractical, leaving the option of running morphodynamic models to predict the likely bathymetry at any given time. However, if the models are inaccurate the errors may be significant if incorrect bathymetry is used to predict possible flood risks. This project is assessing the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the predictions from a simple model, by rigorously incorporating observations of the bathymetry into the model, to bring the model closer to the actual situation. Currently we are concentrating on Morecambe Bay as a primary study site, as it has a highly dynamic inter-tidal zone, with changes in the course of channels in this zone impacting the likely locations of flooding from storms. We are working with SAR images, LiDAR, and swath bathymetry to give us the observations over a 2.5 year period running from May 2003 – November 2005. We have a LiDAR image of the entire inter-tidal zone for November 2005 to use as validation data. We have implemented a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, to investigate the improvements in performance of the data assimilation compared to the previous scheme which was based on the optimal interpolation method. We are currently evaluating these different data assimilation techniques, using 22 SAR data observations. We will also include the LiDAR data and swath bathymetry to improve the observational coverage, and investigate the impact of different types of observation on the predictive ability of the model. We are also assessing the ability of the data assimilation scheme to recover the correct bathymetry after storm events, which can dramatically change the bathymetry in a short period of time.

Promoting core maths - background, evidence, plans, opportunities, and challenges

This article discusses some of the issues relating to the promotion of Core Maths to students, parents, schools and colleges and their senior leadership teams, and also to employers and higher education (HE). Some challenges are highlighted, and addressed, with suggestions for ways forward to secure the future of Core Maths and widespread adoption by all stakeholders. A summary of the background reports that led to the introduction of Core Maths, and the related educational landscape prior to its introduction, is included.

Mobility prediction for seamless mobility in wireless networks

One of the requirements for seamless mobility is efficient resource reservation and context transfer procedures during handoff. If context transfer and resource reservation can occur prior to handoff continuation of the same level of service as at the previous connection point is possible. Resource reservation is required to be non-aggressive for optimal use of limited bandwidth and a low call-blocking probability. In this work we present a method of mobility prediction that can aid in achieving seamless mobility. In order to optimise the efficiency of a resource reservation algorithm we believe accurate prediction of the future movements of the user is required.

China's Burra Charter: the formation and implementation of the China principles

In 2000, the China Principles were promulgated by the China ICOMOS as professional guidelines for the conservation of historic sites. In writing the China Principles, China ICOMOS worked in collaboration with heritage experts from the USA and Australia and adopted ideas from Western conservation codes, particularly Australia's Burra Charter. While acknowledging the influence of international trends on the heritage profession in China, the paper identifies the Chinese characteristics of the China Principles by comparing them with the Burra Charter, and raises issues about the application of the China Principles to conservation practice.

Community development today : taking stock

This paper examines some of the practices and assessments of community development today. It begins with two tales, one recounting the apparent unfulfilled policy promises for community development, the other recounting a situation where there is no community development policy agenda and no community development rhetoric, but where real grass roots community development is apparent. These two tales lead us to consideration of the nature of community development and the issue regarding the match between the discourses of community development with the practices. The paper moves to a discussion of reasons to celebrate community development in 2005. This discussion is followed by consideration of current contextual factors constraining the practices of community development. In the context of the arguments for optimism it is also important to recognise and reflect on the orthodoxies of community development. Six orthodoxies are discussed. The paper concludes with three practical suggestions for community development activities that could begin immediately.