On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Quantitation of HIV-1 RNA Viral Load Using NASBA Methodology and Comparison with other Surrogate Markers for Disease Progression

In this study, HIV-1 viral load quantitation determined by Nucleic Acid Sequence Based Amplification (NASBA) was compared with other surrogate disease progression markers (antigen p24, CD4/CD8 cell counts and b-2 microglobulin) in 540 patients followed up at São Paulo, SP, Brazil. HIV-1 RNA detection was statistically associated with the presence of antigen p24, but the viral RNA was also detected in 68% of the antigen p24 negative samples, confirming that NASBA is much more sensitive than the determination of antigen p24. Regarding other surrogate markers, no statistically significant association with the detection of viral RNA was found. The reproducibility of this viral load assay was assessed by 14 runs of the same sample, using different reagents batches. Viral load values in this sample ranged from 5.83 to 6.27 log (CV = 36 %), less than the range (0.5 log) established to the determination of significant viral load changes.

Humoral Immune Response Kinetics in Philander opossum and Didelphis marsupialis Infected and Immunized by Trypanosoma cruzi Employing an Immunofluorescence Antibody Test

Philander opossum and Didelphis marsupialis considered the most ancient mammals and an evolutionary success, maintain parasitism by Trypanosoma cruzi without developing any apparent disease or important tissue lesion. In order to elucidate this well-balanced interaction, we decided to compare the humoral immune response kinetics of the two didelphids naturally and experimentally infected with T. cruzi and immunized by different schedules of parasite antigens, employing an indirect fluorescence antibody test (IFAT). Both didelphids responded with high serological titers to different immunization routes, while the earliest response occurred with the intradermic route. Serological titers of naturally infected P. opossum showed a significant individual variation, while those of D. marsupialis remained stable during the entire follow-up period. The serological titers of the experimentally infected animals varied according to the inoculated strain. Our data suggest that (1) IFAT was sensitive for follow-up of P. opossum in natural and experimental T. cruzi infections; (2) both P. opossum and D. marsupialis are able to mount an efficient humoral immune response as compared to placental mammals; (3) experimentally infected P. opossum and D. marsupialis present distinct patterns of infection, depending on the subpopulation of T. cruzi, (4) the differences observed in the humoral immune responses between P. opossum and D. marsupialis, probably, reflect distinct strategies selected by these animals during their coevolution with T. cruzi.

Surgical hepatosplenic mansonic schistosomiasis in adolescents: repercussions of the post-treatment schistosomotic burden on the hepatic functional reserve

Schistosomiasis mansoni affects the hepatic functional reserve. Clinical treatment with oxamniquine is not 100% effective and there has been found strain of this parasite resistant to this drug. The aims of this investigation were: (1) to examine the presence of residual parasite burden after medical and surgical treatment on adolescents with surgical schistosomiasis mansoni and (2) to assess the effect on the hepatic functional reserve in patients with and without residual infection. Twenty nine children with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis mansoni and bleeding esophageal varices were treated with oxamniquine. They underwent splenectomy, ligature of the left gastric vein and autologous implantation of spleen tissue into the greater omentum. After a mean post-operative follow up of five years they underwent rectal biopsy for schistosomotic egg search. They were divided in patients with and without infection. In 20 patients the submucosal egg search was negative, however, in 9 it was positive. The hepatic functional reserve in the patients without infection was as follows: 17 were Child-Pugh A and 3 Child-Pugh B. In the patients who were still infected 6 were Child-Pugh A and 3 Child-Pugh B. The chi2 analysis of the hepatic functional reserve showed chi2 = 3.19 - p= 0.07. From the results the following conclusion can be drawn: residual infection or reinfection in the follow up period had not interfered with the distribution of the hepatic functional reserve of the patients in this series. However, there was a trend for a decrease of this parameter in patients with residual infection.

Larvicidal Activity of essential oils from Brazilian plants against Aedes aegypti L.

Aedes aegypti L. is the major vector of dengue fever, an endemic disease in Brazil. In an effort to find effective and affordable ways to control this mosquito, the larvicidal activities of essential oils from nine plants widely found in the Northeast of Brazil were analyzed by measurement of their LC50. The essential oils were extracted by steam distillation and their chemical composition determined by GL-chromatography coupled to mass spectroscopy. The essential oils from Cymbopogon citratus and Lippia sidoides, reported in the literature to have larvicidal properties against A. aegypti, were used for activity comparison. The results show that Ocimum americanum and Ocimum gratissimum have LC50 of 67 ppm and 60 ppm respectively, compared to 63 ppm for L. sidoides and 69 ppm for C. citratus. These results suggest a potential utilization of the essential oil of these two Ocimum species for the control of A. aegypti.

Freshwater sponge spicules: a new agent of ocular pathology

In a recent outbreak of human ocular injuries that occurred in the town of Araguatins, at the right bank of Araguaia river, state of Tocantins, Brazil, along the low water period of 2005, two patients (8 and 12-year-old boys) presented inferior adherent leukoma in the left eye (OS), and peripherical uveites, with snowbanking in the inferior pars plana. The third one (13-year-old girl) showed posterior uveites in OS, also with snowbanking. Histopathological analysis of lensectomy material from the three patients and vitrectomy from the last one revealed several silicious spicules (gemmoscleres) of the freshwater sponges Drulia uruguayensis and D. ctenosclera. This work brings material evidences, for the first time in the literature, that freshwater sponge spicules may be a surprising new etiological agent of ocular pathology.

Four whole-istic aspects of schistosome granuloma biology: fractal arrangement, internal regulation, autopoietic component and closure

This paper centers on some whole-istic organizational and functional aspects of hepatic Schistosoma mansoni granuloma, which is an extremely complex system. First, it structurally develops a collagenic topology, originated bidirectionally from an inward and outward assembly of growth units. Inward growth appears to be originated from myofibroblasts derived from small portal vessel around intravascular entrapped eggs, while outward growth arises from hepatic stellate cells. The auto-assembly of the growth units defines the three-dimensional scaffold of the schistosome granulomas. The granuloma surface irregularity and its border presented fractal dimension equal to 1.58. Second, it is internally regulated by intricate networks of immuneneuroendocrine stimuli orchestrated by leptin and leptin receptors, substance P and Vasoactive intestinal peptide. Third, it can reach the population of ± 40,000 cells and presents an autopoietic component evidenced by internal proliferation (Ki-67+ Cells), and by expression of c-Kit+ Cells, leptin and leptin receptor (Ob-R), granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF-R), and erythropoietin (Epo-R) receptors. Fourth, the granulomas cells are intimately connected by pan-cadherins, occludin and connexin-43, building a state of closing (granuloma closure). In conclusion, the granuloma is characterized by transitory stages in such a way that its organized structure emerges as a global property which is greater than the sum of actions of its individual cells and extracellular matrix components.

Diseño integral de plataforma de virtualización

L'objectiu d'aquest projecte és el disseny, raonat i recolzat en dades objectives, d'una plataforma de virtualització basada en VMWARE ESXi (versió gratuïta de VMWARE), orientada al segment d'empreses i organitzacions que per la seva grandària podrien beneficiar-se d'un entorn de servidors virtualizados però que pel seu pressupost no poden accedir a tecnologies capdavanteres d'implantació.

T-cell responses associated with resistance to Leishmania infection in individuals from endemic areas for Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis

Subclinical or asymptomatic infection is documented in individuals living in endemic areas for leishmaniasis suggesting that the development of an appropriate immune response can control parasite replication and maintain tissue integrity. A low morbidity indicates that intrinsic factors could favor resistance to Leishmania infection. Herein, leishmanial T-cell responses induced in subjects with low susceptibility to leishmaniasis as asymptomatic subjects were compared to those observed in cured cutaneous leishmaniasis (CCL) patients, who controlled the disease after antimonial therapy. All of them have shown maintenance of specific long-term immune responses characterized by expansion of higher proportions of CD4+ as compared to CD8+ Leishmania reactive T-lymphocytes. Asymptomatic subjects had lower indexes of in vitro Leishmania induced lymphoproliferative responses and interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) production in comparison to CCL patients. On the other hand, interleukin (IL-10) production was much higher in asymptomatics than in CCL, while no differences in IL-5 levels were found. In conclusion, long lived T-cell responses achieved by asymptomatic individuals differed from those who had developed symptomatic leishmaniasis in terms of intensity of lymphocyte activation (proliferation or IFN-gamma) and regulatory mechanisms (IL-10). The absence of the disease in asymptomatics could be explained by their intrinsic ability to create a balance between immunoregulatory (IL-10) and effector cytokines (IFN-gamma), leading to parasite destruction without producing skin tissue damage. The establishment of profiles of cell-mediated immune responses associated with resistance against Leishmania infection is likely to make new inroads into understanding the long-lived immune protection against the disease.

A century of research: what have we learned about the interaction of Trypanosoma cruzi with host cells?

Since the discovery of Trypanosoma cruzi and the brilliant description of the then-referred to "new tripanosomiasis" by Carlos Chagas 100 years ago, a great deal of scientific effort and curiosity has been devoted to understanding how this parasite invades and colonises mammalian host cells. This is a key step in the survival of the parasite within the vertebrate host, and although much has been learned over this century, differences in strains or isolates used by different laboratories may have led to conclusions that are not as universal as originally interpreted. Molecular genotyping of the CL-Brener clone confirmed a genetic heterogeneity in the parasite that had been detected previously by other techniques, including zymodeme or schizodeme (kDNA) analysis. T. cruzi can be grouped into at least two major phylogenetic lineages: T. cruzi I, mostly associated with the sylvatic cycle and T. cruzi II, linked to human disease; however, a third lineage, T. cruziIII, has also been proposed. Hybrid isolates, such as the CL-Brener clone, which was chosen for sequencing the genome of the parasite (Elias et al. 2005, El Sayed et al. 2005a), have also been identified. The parasite must be able to invade cells in the mammalian host, and many studies have implicated the flagellated trypomastigotes as the main actor in this process. Several surface components of parasites and some of the host cell receptors with which they interact have been described. Herein, we have attempted to identify milestones in the history of understanding T. cruzi- host cell interactions. Different infective forms of T. cruzi have displayed unexpected requirements for the parasite to attach to the host cell, enter it, and translocate between the parasitophorous vacuole to its final cytoplasmic destination. It is noteworthy that some of the mechanisms originally proposed to be broad in function turned out not to be universal, and multiple interactions involving different repertoires of molecules seem to act in concert to give rise to a rather complex interplay of signalling cascades involving both parasite and cellular components.